PGA Stats & Plays from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
What a crazy week with so many top golfers struggling on the course. I was watching Bryson (who was in all my double up lines) hit 3 shots with the same club and same swing and it hit all 3 balls out of bounds. I wanted to scream! LOL… But congrats to Jon Rahm for taking down the tournament and getting back on track. This week should be a much easier course for the returning golfers. Also I started posting a daily “Showdown” sheet in the group showing live strokes gained stats, last 36 round stats for certain categories and actual round scores over the few tournaments.
COURSE:
TPC Twin Cities – Playing around 7400-7500 yards – Par 71 – Bentgrass
Course Difficulty: 36/49 – Fairly Easy.
LEADERBOARD FROM 2019 (Since we only have 1 year of data):
Matthew Wolf -21
Bryson DeChambeau -20
Collin Morikawa -20
Adam Hadwin -18
Wyndham Clark -17
Carlos Ortiz – 17
Sam Burns, Troy Merritt, Brian Harman, Hideki Matsuyama, Lucas Glover and Garber were all tied at -16.
QUICK BREAKDOWN OF SOME KEY STATS:
There are 3 Par 5’s that are all in the 590 yard range and they have the highest birdie rates at 41%, 46% and 53%. Now the hardest holes on the course are the two Par 4s that are 501 and 510 yards and they have a 21% and 25% bogey rate. Par 5 scoring will be a key to getting low. The most approach shots last year were from 200+ yards which makes sense since the course is really long. The second most is 175-200. Greens should be fairly easy to hit for the average golfer. Driving distance will be beneficial to someone who is a very short driver. When looking at the strokes gained stats we are still sticking with SG: T2G and SG: Approach. Again, I want to break this down by looking at last years strokes gained stats. The top 21 players in T2G all made the cut and most were in the top 25. The SG: Approach is the second stat I like and the top 15 all made the cut and 4 of the top 8 were 7th place or higher showing a strong correlation. Now come people like OTT but I am not a fan. 6 of the top 8 last year in SG: OTT all missed the cut. That tells me that SG: OTT does not correlate to a player making the cut. SG: ARG is close to the same with 7 of the top 16 missing the cut. I know everyone has their own opinion on the SG stats and that is fine – this is just explaining my point of view when I’m looking at players.
GOLFERS OVER 10,000 ON DK: “HIGH END STUDS”
DUSTIN JOHNSON (11,500 DK / 12,400 FD) – Massive price tag here for DJ as he leads the highest priced golfers on both sides. DJ looked horrible last week but it was a tough course so I’ll look past that because I mean it’s DJ! Over his last 24 rounds he is 4th in DK points, 11th in T2G but slides down to 112th in approach. He is 9th in driving distance, 13th in BOB% and even though his approach is 112th he is 5th in proximity of 200+ yards. He really hammers down on the long courses and ranks 11th in P4 scoring and 22nd in P5 scoring. This will also play much easier for him. He is coming off the MC last week and then a WIN and a 17th place. His +8 and +8 were two awful rounds. But his prior tournament he put down a -1, -6, -9 and -3. At a course where distance is key, greens and fairways are easy to hit I’d be shocked if he missed the cut and wasn’t in the top 10.
TONY FINAU (10,900 DK / 11,600 FD) – Ranking 18th in driving distance and 29th in P5 scoring he has to be in the player pool. He did well last week and he is +1.35 SG on courses that are considered “easy”. He should have success here just as I wrote about DJ above and that is why they are priced up in the nosebleed section. Over his last 24 he is 10th in T2G, 25th in approach, 1st in Bob% and even took 23rd here last year. Finau last week show a -6 and -3 before a +1 and +6 in the final round. Finau has 80-87 DK points in 4 of his 5 tournaments since the restart and 1 MC. Go get’em Tony!
GOLFERS 9,000 – 9,999: “UPPER MID-RANGE”
LUCAS GLOVER (9,400 DK / 10,600 FD) – I love me some Glover! He is consistent and doesn’t make many mistakes. He is playing +1.65 strokes better than the average golfer over his last 20 rounds. In his last 24 rounds he is 2nd in T2G and 2nd in approach and 3rd in BOB%. In his P3, P4 and P5 scoring he is 8th, 30th and 32nd. He took 7th here last year and is coming off a 38th last week and then 3 top 20 finishes. Last week he only put up 53.5 DK points (everyone was low) and then he was at 89, 89.5, 90 and 88 DK points. Also keep him in mind for showdown slates as in his prior 8 rounds he has went below -4 in 4 of those 8.
RUSSELL HENLEY (9,200 DK / 10,500 FD) – He is playing at +1.50 SG better than the average golfer over his last 20 rounds. On the cheatsheet he jumps out as #1 in T2G over the last 24 rounds, #1 in approach (again over last 24 rounds), 3rd in Bob% and then in P3, P4 and P5 scoring he is 18th, 5th and 46th. He took 7th at the Workday putting up 87 DK points, then 32nd at the Travelers putting up 80.5 and a MC at the RBC. In his last 8 rounds of golf he has shot -2, -2, -2, -5, -5, -1 +2 and -6. He should have success at this course even though he missed the cut here last year.
HARRIS ENGLISH (9,000 DK / 10,800 FD) – Wow the price tags on these guys this week is crazy! English is a guy that just chucks along and plays in the background and has decent results. Before the covid break he has 65, 65, 78 and 108 DK points and after the return he has a missed cut, then 90.5 DK points and then took 3 weeks off until last week where he put up 56 DK points where he finished in 13th place. Coming off a 13th and 17th he is also 4th and 20th in T2G and approach over the last 36 rounds. He is also a solid putter ranking 15th in his last 24 rounds. He is 3rd in P3 scoring, 4th in P4 scoring and then slides down to 59th in P5 scoring.
GOLFERS 8,000 – 8,999: “THE SWEET SPOT”
ERICK VAN ROOYEN (8,800 DK / 10,200 FD) – Looking at Fantasy National stats over the last 36 rounds he is 3rd in SG: T2G and 6th in SG: Approach. On the PGA cheatsheet he ranks 10th in Par 5 scoring, 24th in Par 4 scoring and 2nd in Proximity shots of 200+ yards over the last 24 rounds. He has been up and down as far as DK points putting up 59 last week on a tough course, then a missed cut, a nice 91.5 and another missed cut. He has a high this year of 124 DK points to the ceiling is there for GPPs. Last week Jon Rahm won and only scored 105.5 DK points. Rooyen shot an opening round of +4 and then a -3 in the second round and finished off the tournament with +1 and +1. He ended up T22 and was +2.08 on his approach and +2.19 on T2G.
DOC REDMAN (8,700 DK / 9,900 FD) – I imagine he is going to have quite the ownership this week so make sure to look for our risers and fallers column we post on Wednesdays after the ownership productions come out. Doc didn’t do well last week shooting +4 and +4 but it was a very difficult course. His prior 8 rounds he has shot -7, -2, -2, -2, -2, -3, -1 and -7. Also prior to last week he has put up 89, 93, 95 and 62 DK points. If you did deep into the stats Bentgrass is his worst putting surface but his best outputs are on courses that are easy to score relative to par and he is +0.92 SG on those. He should benefit here this week.
HENRIK NORLANDER (8,600 DK / 9,800 FD) – He will also be popular this week as he has been on fire! He is +1.35 strokes better than the average golfer and coming off finishes of 6th, 31st, 12th and 41st. So how about those DK points? He has put up 77, 71, 89 and 72 over his last 4. We saw how hard the course was last week and some of the scores were horrible! His WORST round was +2 and he also shot a -6 and -1. To compare incase you didn’t watch anything last week several golfers straight up just missed the cut completely and those included: Sungjae Im, Paul Casey, Daniel Berger, Rickie Fowler, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Rose, Ian Poulter and Webb Simpson. Give the guy some credit for just making the cut on that course!
SAM BURNS (8,500 DK / 10,000 FD) – We love some Sammy Burns! He took 7th here last year and has finished 17th, 30th and 24th in his last 3 tournaments. In his last 16 rounds he has only been at PAR or higher ONE TIME! He shot -3, -6, -2 and +2 at the Workday, then -4, -3, -3 and -2 at the Rocket Mortgage. You get the idea there are 8 more rounds at -1 or lower prior to that. He has 86, 81 and 91 DK points in his last 3 events. Also sits at 5th in Par 5 scoring over his last 24 rounds, 2nd in DK points and 4th in putting. He is also 6th in driving distance so this course could workout well for him. He does rank horrible in proximity 175-200 but at 200+ he is 25th so I’ll average them out and say he is okay to play!
GOLFERS 7,000 – 7,999: “The LINEUP FILLERS!”
SEPP STRAKA (7,900 DK / 9,700 FD) – There are a whole bunch of golfers in the 7K range so I won’t focus to much on the lower priced golfers because this is a weak field. Straka made the cut last week shooting a +1 and a par but followed up his last two rounds with +7 and +3. Hard course, we forgive him. Prior to last week he has put up 90, 103, and 80.5 DK points in 3 of the 4 with 1 MC. Before last week he had 9 straight founds of Par or lower. He is decently ranked but not eye popping. He is 11th in putting, 25th in Bob%, 34th in driving distance and 7th in P5 scoring.
SCOTT STALLINGS (7,600 DK / 9,100 FD) – 7th in DK points, 10th in approach, 18th in Bob%, 29th in proximity 200+ and 26th in P5 scoring. Wow! Solid for a mid $7k range golfer on DK. So how has been performed to get those numbers? Thankfully he didn’t decide to play last week. At the Workday he shot +2, -4, -1 and +3 and then at the Rocket Mortgage he shot -7, -1, -2 and -1. He has an average of -1.56 per round since the return and 75% of his rounds are below par. He has also put up 78, 79, 104 and 73 DK points in his last 4.
RYAN ARMOUR (7,600 DK / 9,200 FD) – He is someone that should be discussed. Depending on the ownership numbers I’ll either use him for GPP or be off of him completely. He is just someone I want to put on your radar because he has GPP winning upside. He took 42nd here last year. He is coming off a MC and then a 4th and 6th place finish. He has 110.5 and 110 DK points in the two before his MC which is tremendous upside at his price point. The cut he missed he shot two par rounds so nothing horrible. The prior tourney he got low shooting -3, -8, -5 and par in the final round. Then the in tourney before he also shot well with a -3, -4, -2 and -6. If he gets hot in the first round also consider him for showdowns! He is shooting an average of -1.86 per round since the return but only 57% of his rounds are UNDER par. If you consider par or less then his number is 11 of 14 rounds.
RICHARD WERENSKI (7,400 DK / 8,800 FD) – He is someone that I had to dig out because I saw him name in the player pool. His stats aren’t overly impressive as a whole but we will get to those. He took 46th here last year and he is coming off great finishes of 35th, 21st and 46th. Over his last 24 he is 20th in DK points, 41st in approach, 32nd in proximity of 200+ and 17th in P5 scoring. He is also surprisingly #1 in P3 scoring. He has put up 78, 94, 76 and 55 DK points across his last 4. His last 8 rounds of golf are -1, -5, +2, -1, -5, -6, par and -2.
TROY MERRITT (7,500 DK / 9,100 FD) – He is someone that I was high on last week but shooting a +3 and +5 he missed the cut so hoping he is lower owned if people aren’t digging deep and just seeing a MC. His prior 8 rounds to last week he shot -3, par, -5, par, -4, -5, -5 and -1. So he has some great rounds! Also prior to last week he has put up 72, 102, 75 and 66 DK points. He is also a solid putter ranking 17th in his last 24 rounds and he is 10th in proximity and 24th in 175-200 and 23rd in 200+. Let’s get low this week Troy!
CHASE SEIFFERT (7,000 DK / 8,600 FD) – I have to bring him up because as I was looking at him as his name popped up in our chat group a few times so I know people are discussing him. He is 12th in T2G, 9th in approach, 31st in Bob%, 11th in P3 scoring, 42nd in P4 scoring and 13th in P5 scoring. Wow! Great stats for a 7k guy on DK! He is coming off a 4th place finish and then a MC. His missed cut was at the Rocket Mortgage and he shot an amazing -6 in the opening around and then a +3. The following tournament the Workday he came out on fire shooting a -4, -3, -2 and -5 and racked up over 100 DK points!
CHESSON HADLEY (6,900 DK / 8,400 FD) – I have to bring him up because I want to mix in some lower owned guys. I don’t know what the ownership numbers are when writing this article so it goes to say if someone is very popular then for GPP look elsewhere and if they are low owned then load them up! Chesson is an up and down player. He is 13th in DK points, 30th in approach, 7th in Bob% and #1 in P5 scoring over the last 24 rounds. Some of his other stats are “questionable” but at this price point he is worth a look. Since the return he has 3 of 4 tournaments of crushing value. He is coming off 80.5 DK points at the Workday, MC at the Rocket Mortgage and then a 78.5 and 86 DK poin performance. I mean you only need 69 points for 10x value on his salary and compare that to Dustin Johnson where you need 115 points. Is it more likely DJ hits 115 or Chesson goes for 69? Just something to think about.
I wish I could write up every golfer in the field but unfortunately I’m limited on time. So look for our risers and fallers article on Wednesday!
Thanks for reading,
Haze