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bathrobeDFS Breakdown for 1/12/2019!


Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you like this information, I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS (I was also asked to start a patreon and venmo and are at the same name). Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium.


***Yesterday In Review:***

**Lineup-**


Name | Price | DKP | Value | Proj Own | Real Own | Diff

---|---|----|----|----|----|----

Simmons | 8900 | 67 | 7.5x | 10.4%| 35.2%| 24.8

Mitchell |7900 | 58 | 7.3x | 30.5%| 32.6%| 2.1

Middleton | 6900 | 41.5 | 6.0 x | 16.8%| 34%| 17.2

Porter| 5800 | 26.75 | 4.6x | 14.1%| 15.2%| 1.1

O’Quinn|3700 | 11.5 | 3.1x | 13.6%| 8.9%| 4.7

Ingles| 5700 | 38 | 6.7x | 20.3%| 25.1%| 4.8

Muscala| 3200 | 27.75 | 8.7x | 2.1%| 29.1%| 27

Collins| 7800 | 41.25 | 5.3x | 9.7%| 8.2%| 1.5

**Total** | 49900 | 311.75 | 6.247x| | |


**Analysis-**


As anyone who played this slate knows, this one came completely down to injury news and how you played it. The first batch of news was the fact UTA had 8 bodies they played last night. This means I wanted to get 2 of the biggest beneficiaries, Mitchell and Ingles. The next injury news was Giannis which led me to Middleton (and so close to Lopez and Bledsoe). The final major news was Embiid being ruled out, which led me to Simmons and Muscala. I chose to run back the MIL game with Porter, and to run the PHI game back with Collins. This gave me 3800 and a choice. Down to Ilyasova who will be super popular? Or O’Quinn who will be going back to NY, in a game that he should get decent run in. Well, I chose wrong there. But all in all, man what a fun and crazy slate.


***The Daily Slate:***

There is a 2 game slate. But one of those games has the Grizzlies in it, so is it really a 2 game slate?? Not really. Let’s look at the real thing.


***Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day***

Matchup Specific Ceiling is a “quasi-metric” I use to make decisions. [**If you haven’t read my explanation, please check out this link right here**](https://www.reddit.com/r/dfsports/comments/a9ckrh/bathrobedfs_good_chalkbad_chalk_and/)


The explanation begins in the “injury/lineup news” section about halfway down.

In this section, I will pick the player who has fewest factors preventing him from reaching his ceiling, considering spread, pace, O/U, defense, usage, teammate health, and other factors.


***Donovan Mitchell*** - I mean, should I just copy and paste what I wrote yesterday? Cause it’s everything I said yesterday except now they are going against a much worse Bulls team. Rubio, Exum, and Neto are still out. Sefolosha and Allen are still out. So **Donovan (8500)** will be running almost all of the ballhandling again today (with **Ingles (6000)** doing the rest, and a similarly amazing play). The Jazz ran an 8 man rotation until there was about 3.5 minutes left in the game, even though they had a double digit lead since the first quarter. Mitchell was one assist from a double-double. Scored 58 DKP. Shot the ball a whole bunch of times. And his price only came up 600. In this set up, he is a 10k player, with the ceiling of a 10k player, priced 8500. Even if the Bulls can’t keep this close, Donovan is locked in today. If, as they say, we can’t predict a blowout, and this is a close back-and-forth, Mitchell has the chance to be one of the top raw scorers today. I’ll get this out of the way right now- as I said above, they only ran an 8 man rotation. One of those was Niang who did absolutely nothing. So that’s 7. That means you can guarantee every single of of these plays is locked into a slew of minutes today, and all make fantastic plays in your lineups.


**Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):**

****Marcus Smart*** - In what should be a plodding, defensive game filled with fairly priced players, **Marcus Smart (4700)** is the one that stands out as the best pick. He is going to facing up against Fournier who leads the Magic in turnovers per game, which gives a bonus in the defensive stats we like to see from him. Fournier is also the easiest player to attack on the Magic. On top of that, Smart has once again increased his 3 shooting this year, giving him more ways to attack Fournier today. With so many other better games today, I don’t think there’s much else here to go into. I don’t think Smart is a stone lock, but I think we can certainly take advantage of him in this game at that price. And I do intend on getting Smart in there if I need someone priced 4700 today.


****Spurs vs Thunder*** - If you watched the OKC/SA game you saw 2 OT worth of research into who is in a strong spot today. **Russ (11800)** is the most expensive player on the slate, but would have had a triple double regardless of if this game went to OT. **LMA (8100)** was absolutely out-of-this-world, punishing the Thunder if he was lined up at PF or C, and shooting 20-33 for 56 real points and 78.75 DKP. And he was 1 rebound from the double-double bonus. I don’t think **DeRozan (8300)** shooting 7-22 was luck, i think it was because he was guarded by PG13, which further pushed the shooting to people like LMA and **Derrick White (5400)**, who I have been talking about for a week, and played a couple of days ago in the same matchup. I also think **PG13 (9500)** underperformed and saw another price drop that he could more than pay off today. I will note that, even though this game has no pending news that I can see, there is still no O/U yet, which concerns me. Stay aware of anything that comes out tomorrow afternoon while everyone is rushing to finish their NFL lineups (stack the Colts/Chiefs).


****LaVine/Dunn*** - I don’t know about you, but if I was one of those Jazz players that played last night, I would nothing more to sit back today, unwind however you choose (I don’t drink myself, but I don’t mind folks having a cold brew or whatever), and watch some playoff football! So I’m sure that those poor guys, who were on an 8 man rotation and couldn’t even get blow out rest, are going to do. WHAT DO YOU MEAN THEY HAVE TO PLAY AGAIN TONIGHT!? Oh well! Then I am going to play **LaVine (6300)** and **Dunn (6100)** who are well rested enough, and will be far too underowned given the fact the Jazz are not the full-strength Jazz. That’s not to say the Jazz aren’t a very good defensive team, and just had 2 similar games that easily went their way. But they’re going to have to play tonight like Thibs is their coach. And I can’t imagine that means they’ll be able to give 100% defensively. I have addressed this earlier in the year- Dunn and LaVine are two players that, when paired together, don’t really detract from each other. They can both find their own groove and work some kind of funky basketball symbiosis. When they have good games (which, since it’s the Bulls, is rare), they can easily both put up 50 DKP. Dunn is more than comfortable shooting only when he has to, and racking up 20 dimes while LaVine shoots 40 times. And tonight they might both get that chance at far too cheap.


****Hornets vs Kings*** - Have I got a deal for you, tonight, folks. Only one like it in the world- step up, and gather ‘round! All eyes bear witness, front and center, I’ve got something special tonight ladies and gentlemen. Right here I have a gen-u-ine NBA basket-and-ball player! Not just any basket-and-ball player, mind you, but one of Doctor Naismith’s finest. He is in the top 10 in the NBA in usage! That’s astounding! He’s going against a team that’s weakest against his position, both as a team and in the NBA. That’s fantastic!! He will have guaranteed low ownership because he’s either slumping or getting blown out or injured or having personal problems. Some of those might matter tonight, but some of those won’t, folks! Some say the risk adds to the fun! He is also coming off a price drop of almost 1000 even though he couldn’t be in a better environment today. What’s that you say!? You call this hogwash? You spit and say it’s falderal? Well I’ll have you know, he will also be going against the 2nd fastest team in the NBA, in a game with a total of 234.5 and a close spread of -5.5. Ahh! I have your interest now!! Yes, folks, gather round, gather round and see someone who could win you a great deal of money tonight. None other than **Kemba Walker (8400)**! Hey, where’s everyone going!?!? Damn, I knew I should have led with someone else. If you, like your dear friend bathrobeDFS, hate playing Kemba as much as you like creating fanciful scenarios that help pass the hours you spend writing DFS articles, look no further than **Jeremy Lamb (5500)**. I don’t want to say this as an absolute- but there is almost no way my lineup tomorrow won’t have one of those 2. On the other side of the ball, The Kings will be going against a Hornets squad that is just about the definition of mediocre. They are in the middle in pace. They are in the middle in defense. They are just about league average at every single position in both DvP and FPPG metrics. They have 0 players in the top 10 in DRPM at their position. I could go on here (not really), but I think I’ve made my point. My favorite play on the Kings is **WCS (6900)** who I have to hope sees the minutes, because he will smash Willy or Biyombo in the face and not stop the entire game. The problem with the other folks here is the split of minutes. The Kings have been playing a lot of folks lately. In the last game, which was not a blowout, **10 people played between 20-29 minutes.** And there were two more players that got minutes That’s A LOT of players. That means that, no matter who you play, there is going to be some risk here.


**Fox (7900)** is expensive, but in another spot he could get to 50 DKP at almost no ownership. Ditto for **Hield (6500)**. If they decide to run these guys a normal amount of minutes and consolidate this rotation, both those guys could be in for a big night. If not, this is going to be one of the riskiest games with one of the best totals you are ever going to see on a slate.


**Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):**


****The Rest of the Celtics/Magic Game??***

****High Ownership Expensive Guys***- no one is worth 40% ownership today except Mitchell

****The Shumpert/Bogdanovic, Bagley/Bjelica splits***

**Situations to monitor:**


****Pels vs. Wolves*** - Ah, I was really ready to go all in on this game. When I was putting together all the notes and stats for today, I was debating pretty heavily about if I wanted to play **Brow (11700)** at MSC. I mean, this game sports an amazing 235 O/U with a microscopic split of MIN -1.5. There was so much to love here. Then KAT injured himself in the first half of yesterday’s game. Even though he eventually returned and finished the game out, he played the game injured and said he was still feeling the injury after the game. And, most importantly, that he was unsure if he would be able to play tonight. So let’s get over this. Brow is a great play, regardless. But he would be a better play if KAT is in the game, because the game has more of a chance of scoring high and staying close. Without Covington out again, the Wolves don’t have any really great defenders, meaning everyone else is in a fine enough spot. But as I pointed out, the Pelicans is a bit of a TooManyCooks situation. There is one big difference between the Pels and the Warriors- Brow is going to get his usage and everyone else can just split what is left. That means that, again, until the pricing is adjusted for Elf being back, the rest of the Pels are no more than dart throws today. On the Wolves side, if **KAT (9900)** manages to play without any injury problems or limitations, he is a wonderful play tonight now that his price has fallen back under 10k. Even with **Rose (6100)** and **Teague (6600)** back, there will plenty to go around this game for KAT to eat, and Teague (and Wiggins) lose more than anyone with Rose back, not KAT. If KAT is out, I am going to be all over the Rose train tonight, regardless of if this game is supposed to stay close. I will also be really, really genuinely happy to get to play **Gorgui Dieng (3100)** who has one of my favorite names in sports.


****Nuggets vs Suns*** - The other game on the slate with no O/U yet, this one is because we are waiting for definitive word on Booker, Harris, and Barton. Right now, Booker is doubtful and they do not expect him to play. With him out, there’s no real way I see this game staying close enough I can warrant spending almost 11k for **Jokic (10800)**. Especially if Harris AND Barton are back and see even limited minutes. This means I do plan on having **Plumlee (4600)** in my player pool tomorrow (for lack of a better term). The Suns can’t defend C, and he will get a ton of run today. He just put up 42 DKP in 20 minutes (READ THAT AGAIN) against a similarly terrible Clippers squad. If Harris and Barton are in (or if one is in and the other is out), I have no interest in any of the wing players from Denver. If either play, they will both be limited and are not discounted enough. If both manage to miss, however, **Morris (4300)** and **Beasley (4400)** are still not priced cheap enough. I like them anyway, given how I think this game is going to go, but if they don’t want to risk Harris and Barton’s health on a game Denver can win without them, both those kids are good to go, and should easily get a boatload of points against this hapless Suns defense. On the Suns side, I will similarly be looking for people who will get 30+ minutes in blowouts. This points me to **Holmes (3800)**, who is still way underpriced, and **Oubre (4400)**. If you think this game stays close, I would strongly advise you to stack the fuck out of it, cause you will be on an island and can win some serious money. I will be looking elsewhere (which, again, could cost me. But what is the nature of DFS if not that?)


***NFL BONUS***

Seriously, stack the Colts/Chiefs. Don’t try to be so god damned clever all the time. Do you not see it?


Best of luck with all your sports, folks!! Let’s win some tournaments!!

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