Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!
Yesterday In Review:
***My Lineup-*** -
Name | Price | DKP | Value
Lowry | 7300 | 47 | 6.4x
Lin | 4400 | 14.25 | 3.2x
Gay | 5700 | 21.75 | 3.8x
Kornet | 3900 | 0 | 0x
Gasol | 5600 | 29.75 | 5.3x
T. Ross | 5300 | 41.25 | 7.8x
LMA | 7500 | 26.25 | 3.5x
Jokic | 10200 | 53 | 5.2x
**Total** | 49900 | 233.25 | 4.674x
***Best Possible Lineup-*** - [Using the free lineup rewind tool on fantasycruncher](https://www.fantasycruncher.com/lineup-rewind/draftkings/NBA/), I find the highest possible lineup that could have been played.
Name | Price | DKP
DSJ | 6800 | 52
T. Ross | 5300 | 41.25
Dotson | 4200 | 42.25
Millsap | 6100 | 55.5
Vuc | 9700 | 53
DeRozan | 8100 | 53.25
Knox | 5200 | 37.5
Mitchell Robinson | 4600 | 45
**Total** | 50000 | 379.75
Man, another mess of a slate. First, I am still angry that, when I started my work yesterday, there was no 3 game slate available. That changed everything, and I’m sorry I didn’t do a normal full article in that case. Second, Kawhi was ruled out from out of nowhere, even though it’s not a back-to-back, forcing everyone to scramble and change lineups completely. Including me. Also, I am pissed off to the point I don’t know if I’m going to play any Knicks anymore. With Jordan out, you had to assume Kornet would get at least SOME run tonight at 3900 but, instead, he got 0 minutes in the first half and they let Ellenson get some minutes, which I predicted yesterday, but not at the expense of Kornet who had been getting 30 minutes a game. So ugh. Knicks. Sorry. Not gonna go there again. I locked in Lowry, Lin and Gasol with Kawhi out and Gasol starting. I thought Lin would get more run than he did (like FVV would), but they didn’t use him even close to the same way. I also loved Terrence Ross in that game so I locked him in. This let me get Jokic from the DEN game, who i thought was the best play on the slate, as well as get LMA, Gay and Kornet in the last game of the day. I was looking OK until DeRozan went off (as I predicted. ugh.) and Kornet didn’t get in the game. For some reason. That no one knows. Except Fizdale is a shitty coach we can’t trust. Ever. Enough Sentence Fragments. Let’s. Get. Down. To. Biz. i. Ness. (I think that’s actually Will. i. Am’s brother).
The Daily Slate:
So, I am going to ditch the MSC section. It just isn’t what I was hoping. Most of the time, with the injury news, the play isn’t as good as it should be, and I feel like I am forcing that person into my lineup, regardless of the news, at my own detriment. I will still let you know the players I think will have a better chance of reaching their ceiling, but, especially on a day like today - one with 11 games and a ton of studs questionable or worse - it wouldn’t benefit you to pick someone now when everything will change so dramatically before lock. I do hope to be able to do a Good Chalk/Bad Chalk more often from now on to combat this. But we will see how it all shakes out. We have to remember, I am new to this. I only started this a couple months ago and I’m trying to do something different with this long form experiment. With talking about more than basketball. With everything. So it will be a living, breathing, evolving thing. It also means I am up for suggestions to how to improve it!
Besides the MSC disappearing for the foreseeable future, there is another major change- a significant addition that should help you out, and help increase the amount of communication I can engage in (even more than here or twitter). Ever since someone told me about Slack a month or so ago, I have been looking into a chat app to provide more of a real-time ability to talk to people about the slate. Or discuss breaking news. Or answer questions if I can. I was going to do Slack, but it was too much of a clusterfuck for me. I can understand why it’s popular, but it’s just not as easy to manage as I want something like this to be. While I was looking around, a few of the people that helped start FanDuel got a hold of me and wanted me to try a new chat app called Flick. I downloaded it and gave it a go and I really like it (or I would either use something else, or just not do this yet). I will be able to chat in real time. I will be able to make new topics for everything and anything I want. So I can make a new chat every day for every slate. For MLB and NBA. I can regulate it so it’s invite only, so we won’t be harassed by trolls and people trying to give us bad information. All of this was very important to me, since I really believe in what I am doing and don’t want to hurt its quality in any way. Expanding to something I can’t control, where harrassment is possible and it’s too easy to lose things, just wasn’t going to work for me. So starting tomorrow, I am going to be crossposting everything I do here into Flick, in a new topic, where I can answer questions or just chat about various process issues. It will be faster and easier than messaging me here or on twitter (though, as an older dude, I may not be as good at it as I should be). So, if you are interested, I would download the Flick App and send me a DM here or on twitter and I will send you the invite link. I am excited to give this a try and I hope it helps all of you as much as I think it will. Alternately, you can probably just look me up on the app as “bathrobeDFS” and ask for an invite there, but I have no problem doing it here or on twitter either. Ok. That’s enough with that. Let’s look at this crazy 11 game slate.
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Kemba - Let me say that, given the fact he will matched up against 5th worst SG in Klay, I also like Lamb (5400) a lot today. But no one is in the ballpark on this team that Kemba (8900) is in. With Zeller back, he is a different player and he is someone who, especially in this game, can get you closer to 60 DKP. First, CHA is 28th in pace and GS is 3rd, meaning this is an awesome pace up spot for Kemba. Second, Kemba is 10th in the NBA in usage. And on top of that, he will be lined up where GS is weakest- against Guards (SG moreso, but that doesn’t mean Kemba won’t get some Klay sometimes). This game has a 234 total and GS is only projected to win by 7. If it stays the close and Kemba gets you 40 minutes again, he would have to be unlucky just to finish at value. He’s just priced to cheap for the matchup, the pace up spot, and the fact that Zeller is back up and healthy.
Warriors Dart Throw - Which one is it going to be today? Or will they just spread out the usage? Since Cousins (8000)had his minutes limit lifted, he has played 2 games. In both, he only wound up with 27 minutes. His price, however, has spike from 6100 to 8000. He’s not getting any more minutes. And now he’s going to have to get 35+ minutes of his insane PPM to get us enough points to help us win a tourney. Curry (9300) has been hot lately, and has a fine matchup. However, so does Durant (9400). The problem is, again, who is going to get the usage? Curry will be lined up against Kemba, who is mediocre. Durant will be lined up against Batum, who is mediocre. Just pick the one you like better, as much as it sucks to say something like that. Anyone who tells you they KNOW what is going to happen with this Warriors team is trying to sell you something and, frankly, lying to you. Even the experts are as frustrated as you with a TooManyCooks situation. The best thing you can do is take a chance on a Klay (6700) or Dray (6000)whose prices are low enough they could really pay off with a ceiling game, and their floors are high enough that they shouldn’t kill you or keep you from the cash. Meanwhile, if you spend 9400 on someone and they get you 40, you are going to have a harder time than if Klay or Dray gets you 30. Either way, this is an awesome game. There are going to be a ton of points scored by this Warriors team, and, given how close it’s supposed to be, we can count on that production through the entirety of that game (we would hope).
Kevin Love - Well, let’s just tackle this. Kevin Love (6900) will probably be the overwhelming chalk today. They finally let him play some 4th quarter minutes and he responded about as well as you could have asked, putting up 54 DKP in 26 minutes. 32 points with 12 rebounds is nothing to yawn at, and Love, as the only real star on this team, will have to do that every single game if he can. If he can get 30 minutes today (and, if they want to have a chance against Nurkic, they will need him in for that long), he could top 50 DKP again easily, even against the improved defense Nurkic provides over an Ivan Rabb. Though, to be fair, he should see some minutes against Kanter as well who is statistically the worst defensive Center in the NBA. To me, this is like a Cousins situation, though. If he is not owned tomorrow, I will take a chance on him. If he is chalk, like I expect, I will have to look elsewhere. It’s an 11 game slate- there are people around 7k who can get you 50+ DKP and will be getting 38 minutes. How can you take someone who is only getting 26 when there are so many other better options out there?
Lillard and CJ - I mean, it’s not really breaking news at this point, if you’ve been reading my articles, that Collin Sexton and Trae Young have been flip flopping as the worst defender in the whole of the NBA. Right now Sexton is 2nd worst, but that is still second worst in the NBA. As bad as he is, the Cavs are even worse against SGs. So if you are looking for a couple dudes in a pace down situation, in a game that’s projected to blow out, take a good shot on Lillard (9200) and CJ (6400). If this game manages to stay close (for example, if they let Love play 30 minutes), Lillard and CJ could both pay off here. With how deep everything else on this team is, and with the addition of Kanter taking 20+ minutes a game, it’s really hard to trust anyone else, especially with Nurkic priced at 7900.
LMA - I know it’s easy to look at yesterday’s game. People were all over LMA and DeRozan and LMA disappointed to put it lightly. It would be easy to see that and get off him today. I mean, he was against the Knicks, right? How could he not deliver? Well, the answer is simple- the Knicks started Vonleh at Center and he is one of the best defenders on that team. Bar None. Not that LMA didn’t get himself into foul trouble. But it wasn’t as easy a matchup as him playing Center against the Nets. Oh yeah! I’m as excited as the Kool-Aid Man. We get to play LMA (7500) in a game he should sleepwalk to 50 DKP at less ownership than he should have. We never know what Pop is going to do in a B2B so we have to be careful but, assuming LMA gets his normal run, he is one of the top plays on the slate today. The Spurs are 21st in pace and the Nets are 2nd, so this is a huge pace up spot. He will get more rebounds since it’s the Nets. The O/U is 231 and BK is projected to actually win by 2, meaning they are going to need him to produce tomorrow. I just have to be all over LMA here. I will also mention that White (4800) is expected back but should still be limited by his heel injury. He missed yesterday’s game and only played 20 minutes in his first game back from the injury. If he misses, Bertans (3900) will get a bunch of extra run and he should produce really, really well in this matchup.
Nets - If you look at the recent DvP, the Spurs are the worst team in the NBA against PG. Even though White is highly rated as a defender, he has missed time with an injury and, when he has played, it has been limited by said injury, both in terms of minutes and ability. I mean, the Spurs play at the 21st fastest pace but give up the 4th most DKPPG. That’s insane. This game has a 231 total and the Nets are projected to win by 2. So, when I tell you DLo (8400), who has been on fire lately (55+ DKP in 3 of his last 4 games, the other was a blowout), should be at least 1000 more expensive, it means he is one of the top plays of the day. He is the lead dog of this offense and no one is even close. He’s 8th in the NBA overall in usage. Nothing is going to stop him today, with a hobbled White trying to defend him. I am all in on the D-Lo train. Choo Choo. I will also point out that, since having his minutes restriction lifted, Crabbe (4100) has played 4 games, getting 31.25, 25.25, 26.5, and 12.25 DKP. While he may have another 1-8 shooting day, the odds are he is going to also be needed to shoot 13 times again this game, pushing closer to the 30 DKP range of his production. At 4100 and 1% ownership, I’ll take that all day. Lastly, LeVert (5400) is still too cheap, but he is only a GPP play. You are hoping he will get you closer to his ceiling and not another 18 DKP game. Just be aware of the risk if you want to go there.
Heat Injuries - Right now, Justise, James Johnson, and McGruder are DOUBTFUL meaning we should count on them not playing. With Dragic (4900) coming back from an injury and seeing a heavily limited amount of minutes, it means we are going to get a few really, really great plays here. Did I mention that the Heat are playing the Suns?? The Suns that give up the most DKPPG in the NBA? The Suns that don’t know how to play D? The Suns that have 3 people in the bottom 5 in DRPM (Booker, Oubre, and Ayton). The Suns that are a huge pace up matchup for the Heat? Hell yeah. The most expensive Heat player is Whiteside (6600) and I would assume this is one of those games they don’t need him as much. I would be a big fan of playing Bam (3900) then, especially on a slate where we will need the value. I also think Wade (5100) plays a bunch of PG minutes, meaning we can count on him getting some extra assists and, therefore, extra DKP. He is going to be far too cheap here (unless Dragic is completely unlimited). I would also think Derrick Jones Jr (3400), who got 27 minutes last game, would also be in the position to do so again today and should hopefully be able to produce at a better clip. On top of all of that, PHX is worst in the NBA against SG. I expect Waiters (4700) to get some extra production his way and he is already someone who’s been pushing 30 DKP every game. This is just a game replete with options and we are gonna be able to sneak some of these dudes in to help us get some studs in.
Tyler Johnson - So, in their last game, Tyler Johnson (4800) got 35 minutes against the Hawks, shooting 10-16 on his way to 49.25 DKP. Is it chasing points to be on him tonight, or is there some other explanation we can ascertain here? I would say that the matchup against Trae Young was crucial, but in this game, he will be facing a similar situation- Dragic is limited and Wade is one of the worst defenders in the NBA at his age. He’s not facing Winslow, which would make me more concerned. In that game, Booker was facing Baze and Ayton was facing Dedmon, two of the Hawks best defenders. In this game, Booker will be facing Richardson and Ayton will be facing Whiteside, the Heat’s two best defenders. Listen, I know that, when it comes down to it, this team is going to be Devin Booker (8600) shooting the ball 28 times a game, leaving scraps for all the other people (making him a great play any day, even against a slower, tougher opponent). I had previously said that you should choose between Oubre and Jackson. Now I think you need to choose between Oubre, Jackson, and Tyler Johnson as the 2nd producer on this team. Given the matchup, and his 34 minutes, I will give the advantage to TJ today. And I couldn’t care less about the revenge narrative here.
Giannis DOUBTFUL - Oh boy can we take advantage of this. Right now, for some reason, Vegas still thinks the Bucks are going to win this game by 11, even though the total is a sweet 228. I think, if Giannis plays, I would be fine with that total. But with Giannis out, and given the way the Bulls have been playing lately, I will be all over this game tonight. (If you can do sports betting, bet on the Bulls to cover that 11. I mean. I would. A lot.) So let’s break it down. First, Bledsoe (6400) will be matched up against Dunn (5700). In the 2 games since the all-star break, Dunn has put up 12.25 and 15.75 DKP. Now he is matched up against one of of the better PG defenders in the game. Bledsoe, on the other hand, will have a lot more to do with Giannis out and should be one of the first people you look at on this slate, assuming you don’t think this game blows out. Let’s skip to C now, because I can do whatever I want. Here we will see the Lopez twins matched against each other. BroLo (4600) is the better offensive and defensive player at this point, and has a matchup against a Bulls team that struggles against Centers. RoLo (4100) is far too cheap for someone who will be forced into almost 30 minutes and has been getting around 1PPM as it is. Now let’s skip to SF. I hope you can see what I’m doing. Here we have Middleton (6300), someone who is another great play when Giannis misses, matched up against either Otto Porter (5900), who is questionable, or Wayne Selden (3200). Needless to say, if Porter misses, Middleton becomes a better play (although I still like Bledsoe more). If Porter misses, almost all of the usage on this team will be split between the only two people left, LaVine (7400) and Lauri (7900). Both of these dudes have been eating at the same time- in their last game, LaVine had 55 DKP and Lauri got 61. Now they get matched up against Brogdon (5400) and Ilyasova (3400), who should be filling in for Giannis. This makes Markkanen one of my favorite plays of the day with LaVine not far behind him. I also have to point out that Ilyasova starting for that price is someone else you should consider locking in (although I imagine he will be chalk). If the Bucks decide to get crazy and start Mirotic (5400) instead, lock him in there cause he is going to get 50 DKP if they let him get 30 minutes tonight.
Grizzlies - The Grizzlies are never really a fun team to play, but there are a couple really nice spots here. First up, they are matched up with the Lakers, one of the fastest teams in the league. The Grizzlies, who normally see an O/U in their games around 200 will see an O/U of 221.5 against the Lakers, just to show you how many more points and possessions the Grizzlies are expected to get. On top of that, the Lakers give up the 3rd most DKPPG to opposing teams, meaning we can count on all these Grizzlies to exceed their normal projections. So where do we attack? Well, that part is EASY. The Lakers are the worst team in the NBA over the last month against C and 2nd worst against PG. So come onnnnnnnnn down Conley (7600), who can get you more than 50 DKP in this matchup, and JoVal (6400)who will get you 30 minutes and could also push 50 DKP in this matchup. With JJJ out, and Rabb (5600) playing some PF, JoVal is pretty damn close to a lock here, and I can’t wait to get him in there. I also must point out that Delon Wright (3800) is one of the best punts on the day, period. I don’t care what happens between now and lock (apart from, you know, Delon Wright being ruled out). He is a serious threat for over 30 DKP today, and they just haven’t increased his price sufficiently for his new role on this team. Especially if we get some injury news, at which point he is going to be completely overlooked tomorrow. Don’t make the same mistake.
Lakers - Ok so, I’m looking at these Lakers rotations against NO and I am completely blown away. They have 2 Centers now- McGee (5000) and Chandler (3100). I was looking through the logs and saw that, combined, they only got 21 minutes last game and I was confused. What the hell happened? After 6 minutes in the 1st quarter, McGee was taken out for Chandler. Chandler then played about 4.5 minutes before being taken out for LeBron coming back in the game. Neither Center saw the floor again during that half. Chandler didn’t see the floor again that night. So, after they took Chandler out the 5 players on the floor were - Josh Hart, KCP, Rondo, Stephenson and LeBron. So LeBron was playing Center with 4 guards? At the beginning of the 2nd, they brought Ingram in for Stephenson. Ingram got his 3rd foul almost immediately, so they put Kuzma back in (who took over Center). But, had Ingram not fouled, the Lakers would have been running Hart, KCP, Rondo, Ingram, and LeBron for an extended time. So, again, who is playing what??? Ingram is the PF? For the rest of the game, either McGee, Kuzma, or Wagner manned the 5. So why is this important? Because the Grizzlies are now awful against Centers. Look at what Kevin Love just did to them. So this means that I have a lot more interest in LeBron (11200) and Kuzma (6200) since they are going to be getting extended time at the 4 and the 5, where the Grizzlies are going to be the easiest to exploit. If you are gonna play anyone against the slowest team in the league, make it at least one of these two.
KAT and Saric - I had a hard time deciding which of these players I wanted to list at the top before I realized I can just put both up there since I can do whatever I want. Ah, freedom. So, KAT (10100) will be back after an extended rest due to a concussion. He should be able to jump back into his normal minutes in a matchup against a WCS on the road. Oh boy that’s awesome. Also, Saric (4600) is someone people will forget about. He seems to have his normal game where he gives you value, which is fine, and then an occasional ceiling where he goes off. Today’s game, he will be faced up against Harrison Barnes and Bagley at PF. Bagley is, literally, the worst defensive PF in the NBA. He is 93rd out of 93. The fun thing is that Barnes is 50th out of 80something SFs. But that is a different monster than PF. If you take his DRPM and place him in the PF position, he would be 80th of 93. So, basically, Saric is going to be going to a buffet tomorrow and he will be the only thing that’ll be able to stop him from eating as much as he wants. Oh, and, by the by, the Wolves are 20th in pace and the Kings are 3rd so this whole game for the Wolves is fantastic.
Fox and Barnes - This is not a personal injury law firm, as much as it sounds like one. Here I am strongly recommending both Fox (7200) and Barnes (4800). First, MIN is weakest against PGs. Fox has gotten over 40 DKP his last 2 games, and 3 of his last 4 (with the other one 35 DKP). He is going to get a ton of minutes against D Rose, who is 480th out of the 491 players ranked by DRPM. Take advantage of that. Similarly, with all the talk of how Bagley is 93rd out of 93 PF and how Barnes would be 80 out of 93, I didn’t mention who is 90th- Dario Saric. So basically we are going to see Barnes show up to the same buffet Saric is attending. It’s going to be fun to watch them both go off. As risky as all the other players are (from a minutes perspective), Fox and Barnes (Esq.) are the safest bets here from both a minutes and production standpoint.
Sixers vs Pelicans - As much as I would love to just pick one or two players from both teams here, this game is about as good as it gets for this slate. A 238 total with the Pelicans 1.5 point home favorites. Embiid out, which should keep it close. Brow is limited to around 25 minutes and Jrue is limited to around 30 minutes a game, which should also help keep it close. Both teams top 10 in pace. It’s just going to be a beautiful game on both ends, and especially from the perspective of a DFS player. I don’t often say this, but this is one of those games that doesn’t really have a bad play. I mean, Brow is unplayable. But even Jrue (7700) showed you he can put up 50 DKP, even in his limited time. He also showed you he will get up to 33 minutes if the situation arises (and it will in this game). He is going to be completely ignored with the news of his limited minutes, but his price has fallen far enough we can still get him to far exceed his value, especially in this matchup (although he will probably see Butler’s D). Everyone else is unquestionable. Simmons (8000) dropped 52.25 DKP against Portland, 3 rebounds from a 3x2, and this matchup is streets ahead of that one. He is one of the best plays on this entire slate, running away. Going into their last game, I was worried that Randle (7800) was also going to be limited, since he only saw 25 minutes in the game before last, but he saw 38 minutes in the last game, so that fear was completely unfounded and we can deploy Randle like normal. Here, he will be matched up against either Tobias Harris (6800) or Mike Scott (3300). Speaking of which, Randle is the worst ranked C in DRPM, meaning that Harris himself is a fantastic play from a matchup perspective. When you combine that with the usage increase he gets with Embiid out, as well as the increase in Rebounds, he becomes a fantastic 50 DKP upside play at less than 7k. After getting 27 minutes and 38 DKP in the first game Embiid missed, Boban (5500) only managed to get 19 minutes and 14.75 DKP in the last game. With his 2000 price increase, I will call him a wonderful, perfect GPP play but someone who comes with all the risk that that entails. Kenrich (5500), on the other hand, should still see his minutes, even with Moore getting some minutes today. Miller is Doubtful and, honestly, I think Kenrich will get his run no matter what. He has been either getting you 35 or 15 DKP lately, we we’ll have to hope that this will be more of a 35 than 15 game. Elf (4800) is dramatically underpriced for a starting PG getting 38 minutes in a game projected with a 238 total. I mean, seriously. If Boban doesn’t get the run, I expect the extra minutes to fall to Scott, who got 30 minutes and 24.5 DKP last game. Everyone else is just too risky for me to go with them, but if you want to go for a Butler, Redick, or a Diallo I wouldn’t blame you at all. All 3 would be fine GPP plays, but I wouldn’t count on any of them even reaching value today.
Clippers - So there are a couple ways I want to attack the Mavs and it just so happens that some of the Clippers strongest players are right there. First, I want to attack them at Center. Specifically, I want to attack Powell, who will play backup but still get most of the minutes. That sounds like he is going to match up perfectly with Montrezl (6800). That means Montrezl is yet another sub 7k play that can get you an easy 50 DKP tonight. I mean, jeez. If this isn’t a balanced lineup night, I don’t know what one is. You can also attack Dallas from the wing, meaning I want people who are going to shoot 3s. In this case, I want to get LouWill (7000), Gallo (6500) and Shamet (4000) in my player pool, with LouWill and Gallo both given serious consideration for the main lineup given how cheap they are as well. As I will discuss later when talking about the Doncic issue, this is going to be a tough game to figure out how to attack. Obviously Doncic’s health is a big factor and it’s good to know that, should we want to focus on this game, there are plenty of places to go on both sides, where most of the field is going to just ignore this game completely, especially if Doncic turns into a GTD.
Situations to monitor:
Myles Turner QUESTIONABLE - This is the first significant piece of news we will be waiting for tomorrow. Hopefully we find out around noon since the Pacers should have a shootaround tomorrow morning. I am worried they will declare him a GTD but, even if that happens, this game goes off first at 7pm, so we should still be able to plan for everything. His presence makes a huge difference in this game, both on the Pacers side and on the Pistons side. Let’s get into both. First, if Turner (6200) plays without a minutes limit, they are going to need the hell out of him against Andre and Blake. He is priced far too low for his production and people will not be on him cause of the Q tag. If he is limited, yuck to everyone. If he is out, I will be very interested, again, in Sabonis (6300) who saw a nice price increase, but not enough of one for his production in games that Turner misses. O’Quinn (4300) saw his price jump 1300 making him a much more difficult play to stomach. I know he’s getting you around 25 DKP, but at that price, he doesn’t really have a 30-40 DKP ceiling we would need to win an 11 game slate GPP. I will also point out, as always, Collison (5800) is matched against R Jax who is awful. He has been getting you around 30 DKP, so he may not give you the ceiling you need in GPP, but he is a safe producer. Similarly, Bojan (5500) is still flourishing without Oladipo. His price is close to the 6k it needs to be, but we can still find some room here. He can put up 40 DKP, especially if Turner is out. And I assume most people will be off him given the fact this is a game between 2 slow teams with a total of 212.5. The spread, though, is only DET -2.5, so ignoring the game will not benefit you. On the other side, if Turner is out, I will be in love with Drummond (9000) tonight. He will get a 20/20 against O’Quinn. If Turner is in, I will be off Drummond. It’s that simple. I will have more interest in Blake (9100) if Turner is in, given how much more he will need to do. I would also strongly suggest taking a long, hard look at playing Kennard (4400)tonight. He keeps getting more than 30 minutes and producing like 1 PPM. At 4400 that’s just too much to pass up.
Harden QUESTIONABLE - So, Harden (11400) is still nursing that neck injury. Given this is a matchup against the lowly Hawks, I would expect them to exercise caution and rest Harden for another game, but we are going to have to see what they do. Hopefully the news comes out in the morning because, needless to say, it’s hugely significant. Right now Vegas doesn’t have an O/U or a spread while they wait word on Harden, but, this is going to be a 230+ total and the factor that will determine if this is a blowout and, thus, if this is a good game to target, is Harden’s status. So, if he plays, and isn’t limited, I imagine that this game is over pretty quickly. The Hawks are one of the worst defenses in the league, and are also one of the worst at defending both PG and SG (and are worst against PF, for that matter). Harden can be played, and he will probably be significantly underowned based on the injury status. If they decide to play smart and rest him, you pretty much have to consider CP3 (8100), Faried (5500), and Gordon (4600) as close to a lock as you can get on an 11 game slate. CP3 is one of my favorite plays anyway. Even if Harden plays, he’s going to get a ton of usage, and get a matchup against worst-defender-in-the-NBA Trae Young. He just becomes even better if Harden misses. With Collins a terrible defender, the Hawks worst in the NBA against PF, and Faried starting at PF last game (with Harden out), I would be also be all over him in this spot. If you were on him last game, in a much tougher matchup, he rewarded you with 38 DKP and his price fell 300. Gordon also sees a spike in usage with Harden out, as evidenced by the 20 shots he took last game (and 37.75 DKP). I would expect much of the same this game, except he is going to be matched up against either Huerter or Vince Carter or Bembry instead of Durant. On the other side, given the matchup against CP3, I will be hesitant to play Trae (8200) for the first time in weeks. But with Prince and possible Huerter out again, he may have no choice but to take as many shots as he can. I also feel like this makes Collins (7300) and Bazemore (5400) better plays, even though Collins has been up and down lately, and Baze saw his price rise 1000. Baze is fresh off a 38.75 DKP game and I don’t think anyone will be on him today. If Huerter does wind up missing, Baze is going to be one of the first people I lock in. On top of all that, Eric Gordon is one of the worst defenders in the NBA and that’s who Baze would get matched with all game. It would be just too sweet to pass up. As much as I worry about his minutes, Dedmon (5300) gets matched up against a Capela (7000) who is also a bad defender and getting a limited run as it is. He has put up 40+ DKP in his last 2 games. If the Hawks want to keep this one close, he’s gonna need to do that again. So, to sum it up, does Harden play? And if he doesn’t, do you think this game stays close anyway? If so, boy are there are lot of amazing plays.
Doncic QUESTIONABLE - When Vegas doesn’t have a total posted yet, you know the star that’s questionable is really questionable. The main problem we have is that 10 of the 11 games are going to tip off and lock by 8pm. There is ONLY ONE game that goes off after 8pm and that is the DAL/LAC game that locks in at 1030pm. If we don’t know Doncic’s status in the morning, we probably won’t know until 830-9pm at the earliest meaning we are either going to have to play a lot of people in this game so we can move people around, or just ignore the game completely. While I can understand that, I just can’t do that with how many good plays there are here. First, if Doncic (8800) can play without a limit, he should be 10k. Every game. He is 6th in usage in the NBA. He is a threat of a 3x2 every game. He is shooting the ball 20+ times a game. This team is his, and the fortunes of the Mavs will rise and fall with the abilities of this 19 year old kid. I would expect the Mavs to be favorites on the road if Doncic plays and for the Clippers to be favorites if Doncic misses. Either way, this is going to be another game with a 220+ total and a close enough spread. If Doncic plays, the only other Mavs I would have interest are all the PF/Cs we can get- the Clippers are about as bad as can be against both positions, meaning I will be really interested in Powell (4000), Kleber (3800), and Mejri (3200) in that order. Kleber is questionable with an illness as well, so if he misses, I will be all over Powell and Mejri with a rare Dirk Nowitzki (3100) sighting in my player pool. I also love Hardaway (5200) in this matchup and at at that price. I have been saying since the trade he is going to be over 6k soon and, even though he just dropped close to 40 DKP, his price isn’t budging. In this pace up matchup, I will be all over THJ whether or not Doncic is in. If Doncic is out, it also opens up both Brunson (3900) and Burke (3400). Feel free to play Burke if you hate yourself. I know I may. I just refuse to learn my lesson there, huh?
Man, this is going to be a fun one tonight! This is one of the rare times I didn’t even have to use my “situations to be careful of” section!! Everything is either great, or something we have to watch out for news about. Either way, I am excited to see you all on the new chat app I’ll be using. It should be really cool, and I’m excited to give it a try with all of you fantastic people. Best of luck tonight, everyone! And I guess I’ll talk to you all soon.