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bathrobeDFS - Breakdown for February 10th!


Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article.


The Early Slate:


Blazers vs Mavs - TIP OFF: 300pm

Stats and Stuff

O/U - N/A

Blazers

Pace - 19th

Injuries - NONE

Trade Deadline Changes - Swanigan GONE, Skal ADDED

DvP Says: Weakest Against C

Players in the top 50 in Usage: Lillard (20th), CJ (38th)

Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Harkless (8th - SF), Aminu (9th - PF), Nurkic (4th - C)

Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: NONE

Mavs

Pace - 29th

Injuries - Barea and Porzingis OUT, Doncic QUESTIONABLE

Trade Deadline Changes - Barnes, Mejri, Jordan, DSJ, Matthews GONE, Justin Jackson, Porzingis, Lee, Hardaway, Burke ADDED

DvP Says: Something irrelevant, given the new Roster

Players in the top 50 in Usage: Doncic (6th), Burke (42nd)

Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Kleber (4th - PF)

Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: NONE


BREAKDOWN

The new look Mavs should be a relatively easy team to break down. The starters are going to get about 35 minutes and a small handful of reserves will work in as well. People trying to figure things out will spend too much time looking at their last game, and see low scores and spread out minutes without understanding that it was a game against the Bucks in which they got blown out. In this game, at home, that should stay close, everyone should get back what should be a new normal.


The team starts with Doncic (9200). Over the last handful of games, Doncic has the 6th highest usage rating in the NBA. He is a 3x2 threat every game. He could be priced 10k and we would still have to consider him. When you have someone doing what he is doing with shots and rebounds, while ball handling, you just have to pay the price until it gets high enough and be grateful. Some places have him as Questionable, but he is not on the Mavs official injury report.


The other starters are interesting based on their prices as well. Hardaway (5100) is not priced for being a team’s 2nd option, and for someone who will be shooting 20 times a game. Especially not for someone who gets to do that lined up against CJ. All of the mix of Kleber (4300), DFS (4100), Powell (4800), and Brunson (4000) are totally viable punts, especially on a 2 game slate. They are all going to get a ton of minutes, and could all far exceed this salary. I mean, they can’t all do it at the same time, but any two/three of them could do it today at the same time.


I don’t know if Burke (3700) is going to get the same run he got last game, but it is worth the risk in GPPs. He got 35.75 DKP in only 27 minutes last game, and, considering he’s competing with Devin Harris, he should be able to do that again today if given the chance. The only question is how much did his run have to do with the blow out and how much had to do with a game plan. We will find out this afternoon.


On the other side, Lillard (8800) is both the highest usage player, and he is also in the best spot to attack the Mavs new roster. He got 49 DKP and missed a 2x2 by 1 assist. Given the matchup, I don’t think it’s insane that he passes 50 DKP against the Mavs here.

CJ (6800) is someone who has been INCREDIBLY hot lately. Over his last 4 games, he has put up 55.75, 46.75, 41.25, and 61.5 DKP. He is one of those players I have always considered hot and cold. Ride him while he’s streaking and then get off and watch people lose money on him. I can say I have the worst luck with him, so the fact I’m on him means today should be the day his hot streak ends. But, barring a lack of belief in the supernatural, he is in another amazing spot against the new Mavs.


People will see the matchup information and think Nurkic (7700) is in a difficult matchup. But that is because Jordan was the Mavs C, and he had been #1 DRPM ranked for most of the season. Now the Mavs have Maxi Kleber and Powell manning the 5. This is a place people won’t be all over Nurkic and he should eat for you.


The final person I’ll mention is Jake Layman (3900) who is consistent, they love him, and has a 10x ceiling for you any game. Exactly what you are looking for in a 2 game slate.


Lakers vs Sixers - TIP OFF: 330pm

Stats and Stuff

O/U - 234, PHI -7

Lakers

Pace - 9th

Injuries - Hart QUESTIONABLE, Muscala, LeBron PROBABLE (Lonzo OUT)

Trade Deadline Changes - Mykhailiuk, Beasley, Zubac GONE, Bullock, Muscala ADDED

DvP Says: Worst in NBA against SG. Terrible Against SF. Subpar against PF and C.

Players in the top 50 in Usage: Lebron (7th), Kuzma (31st)

Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Lebron (6th - SF)

Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: Kuzma (5th Worst - PF)

Sixers

Pace - 7th

Injuries - Embiid is QUESTIONABLE, Shake is OUT, Jon Simmons QUESTIONABLE

Trade Deadline Changes - Shamet, Chandler, Muscala, Fultz, Richardson GONE, Harris, Boban, Scott, Ennis, Jon Simmons ADDED

DvP Says: Weakest Against Centers.

Players in the top 50 in Usage: Embiid (2nd)

Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Simmons (7th - PG), Butler (2nd - SG), Embiid (9th - C)

Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: NONE


BREAKDOWN

This is the sexier game, and I expect much more ownership to find its way here (more reason to focus on the POR/DAL game in GPPs). But this game IS awesome, and people are right to want to get pieces from here. The problem we have is that we don’t have the consolidation we get from other teams, and, much like with the Warriors, it could be hard to predict where the usage is going to go without simply making a guesstimate.


The Lakers side is a lot easier to figure out. LeBron (10800) and Rondo (6300) are awesome. They are 3x2 threats every game. They don’t negatively impact one another (if anything, they make each other better.) I know James will be guarded by Butler and Rondo by Simmons, and both are great, but I also know that LeBron and Rondo should be more than up for the challenge. Even if the defense is hard, they have plenty of ways to beat you.

The only other Laker I really love here is McGee (4700). They showed last game that getting rid of Zubac was going to benefit McGee greatly. He got 28.5 DKP in 30 minutes. I would expect close to the same again, and that is damn near 6x already.


Everyone else is muddier. Bullock (3000) is available and expected to play. Considering he was a starter, I would expect him to get a significant amount of minutes here and more than pay off that salary. This would eat into the minutes of Ingram (5400), Stephenson (3900) and KCP (3800).. It’s going to be hard to play any of them, but 3000 is just too cheap not to take a chance on a 2 game slate.


The Lakers have also announced Muscala (3100) is available this afternoon as well against his former team. I don’t buy any sort of revenge narrative here, but I do think he gets a bunch of backup minutes and, much like Bullock, you almost have to take the chance at this low price. Also, much like with Bullock, Muscala’s presence makes me like other people less. In this case, Kuzma (5500).


On the Sixers side, we have a similar problem. Embiid (10300) and Ben Simmons (8200) are awesome. They are massive threats every game. They don’t negatively impact one another (if anything, they make each other better.) The Lakers are terrible against Centers, so my first choice is Embiid. Plus he is 2nd in usage in the NBA. Simmons has a legit chance of a 3x2 here as well given how fast this game is going to be played.

The Lakers are worst in the NBA against SG, so if you want to roll the dice with Redick (5200) it isn’t point chasing. He can get hot any game and win you money, especially in a 2 game slate where he may not be as popular as he should be.


I am going to assume Butler (7200) and Harris (6600) are good for the Sixers, but negatively impact each other until I see otherwise. If you want to take the chance on one, I would go with Harris. Butler will see LeBron and Harris will see Kuzma, who is a terrible defender. His price is low enough that he could pretty easily pay this off. I just wouldn’t go near there in cash.


I will say this from a mountain if I need to-- If Boban (3000) is going to get 15-20 minutes every game, you need to play him until he is 4k. He only got 8 DKP last game, which is an insane aberration from his historical production. If you want one of those minimum priced guys who can win a tourney for you tomorrow, get Boban locked in first.


The Daily Slate:

Suns vs Kings - TIP OFF: 600pm

Stats and Stuff

O/U - N/A

Suns

Pace - 11th

Injuries - Melton, Warren OUT, Booker PROBABLE

Trade Deadline Changes - Ryan Anderson GONE, Tyler Johnson ADDED

DvP Says: Worst in NBA against C. Terrible against SG. Below Average against PF/PG

Players in the top 50 in Usage: Booker (9th), Oubre (44th)

Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: NONE

Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: Booker (WORST - SG), Oubre (3rd Worst - SF), Ayton (5th Worst - C)

Kings

Pace - 10th

Injuries - NONE

Trade Deadline Changes - Shumpert, Randolph, Justin Jackson, Skal GONE, Burks, Barnes, Swanigan ADDED

DvP Says: Weakest against PG. Also Below Average against SG

Players in the top 50 in Usage: Bagley (50th)

Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: NONE

Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: Bagley (WORST - PF), Barnes (5th Worst - PF)


BREAKDOWN

With one of the 3 games on this slate the Heat and the Warristars, we are really lucky the other 2 should be replete with fantasy goodness. This one is between 2 teams who have been playing at top 10 paces recently (although PHX recently fell to 11th). There is no O/U as they await official word on Booker, but the coach today said he looked good and he is probable to play in this game. Luckily, if anything were to break, this game goes off first, and then we have 90 minutes to fix whatever else we need to.


So, assuming he is healthy and given a full run, you have to give serious consideration to Booker (8500) being one of the best plays on this slate. He has as high a ceiling as anyone playing here. His price is lower than people he can outscore. No one else on the slate is in the top 10 in Usage but Booker. The Kings are weak against guards, and Booker should be able to make easy work of that. The Kings had been using Shumpert for defensive purposes, but they shipped him off and we are going to see Booker take advantage of that tonight as well. Either way, this is going to be a fast game, with bad D, where no one is going to stop Booker from shooting 30 times and we all know, without TJ Warren on the court, he would love nothing more than to do that. That also means I would have interest in Tyler Johnson (4400) who should get most of the usage in the 2nd unit and some trickle down usage when he plays alongside Booker. Either way, his price is too low for someone getting 30 minutes in this matchup. People might be scared off by his 11.5 DKP last game. He shot 1-9 in his first game with a new team. Don’t let recency bias scare you off what you would normally know is a great play.


Ayton (6900) I think is another great play on this Suns team. He is getting minutes in the mid 30s and producing over 1 PPM. You can do the math there that he should easily pay off this price. On top of that, SAC is weak against Cs. They aren’t as horrible as other teams, mind you, but remember - this is the team Nurkic embarrassed earlier in the season. He will be one of the top options today, and the higher number of possessions means he will get extra chances to produce.


As much as I would like to play Jackson (6200) and Oubre (5900) it seems only one of them can have a great game at once. Especially with Booker hogging the usage, I would take a chance on one in GPPs, but you have to be aware of the risk here. I think Oubre is much safer given his role in the 2nd unit. Similarly, Bender (3600) and Holmes (3500) are cannibalizing each other to the point I don’t really want to play either here, especially since they won’t need to play as big.


The Kings situation is even muddier. The guard/wing minutes are being split between Fox (7300), Hield (6600), Bogdan (5000), Alec Burks (3900), and Yogi Ferrell (3400) With Harris starting at SF, it makes it a lot harder for more than a couple of these guys to pay off at once. I think Bogdan and Hield are, by far, the safest here now. I expect Fox to keep getting eaten into by Yogi and Burks for some reason.


The Bigs situation is also a hard in which to find something to really love. Here, you have Barnes (5100), Bagley (6000), Bjelica (4100), Giles (3500), WCS (5300) and the newly acquired Swanigan (3000) who isn’t guaranteed to get minutes, but could be active tonight. The only person I think is completely safe now is Barnes. I would definitely run with him tonight. Other than that, I see a long list of people not getting enough minutes to justify their prices.


Magic vs Hawks - TIP OFF: 730pm

Stats and Stuff

O/U - 224, ORL -2.5

Magic

Pace - 21st

Injuries - Bamba OUT

Trade Deadline Changes - Jon Simmons GONE, Fultz ADDED

DvP Says: Weakest against PG

Players in the top 50 in Usage: Vuc (18th), Ross (46th)

Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Vuc (6th - C)

Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: NONE

Hawks

Pace - 5th

Injuries - Jaylen Adams QUESTIONABLE (Yes, that’s a real dude)

Trade Deadline Changes - Dorsey GONE

DvP Says: Worst in NBA against SF. 2nd Worst against PG. Also Subpar against SG/PF

Players in the top 50 in Usage: Trae (24rd)

Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Bazemore (3rd - SG), Huerter (10th - SG)

Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: Trae (WORST - PG), Prince (4th Worst - SF), Collins (4th Worst - PF)


BREAKDOWN

This is the game of the slate. I am going to try to focus most of my ownership here. We have a ton of people underpriced in a game that’s gonna go fast. With how quickly the Hawks like to shoot, and how poorly they do with that, I see a ton of extra rebounds for Vuc (9500) and Gordon (6700). Vuc is probably my favorite play on this slate, but I also expect him to be the most popular. If that is, indeed, the case I would love to pivot down to Gordon. I would even play both. Both are priced low enough to pay off tonight, especially on a 3 game slate where people might not do the same. Dedmon is mediocre at D (which still makes him one of the best on the team), but Vuc is one of the unguardable people in the league. Gordon gets matched up with Collins who is a good offensive player, for sure, but is also one of the worst ranked PFs defensively.


If you want to go somewhere else here (or in addition to the Bigs), the Hawks are weakest in the NBA against SFs. This makes me focus on Isaac (5000) and Ross (5300). Both have been consistent producers lately, and I think both could easily get 30 DKP tonight.

God. Imagine if this game goes to overtime. Man, how many points would all these people score.


Sorry.

Trae Young is the worst defender in the NBA at any position, so we should be really excited to play the PG for the Magic. Unfortunately, Augustin (4500) has not been playing well at all lately. While I don’t think you can deny his ability to get 30 DKP in the right situation, I just have a hard time betting on that. Especially since they have been trying to play Briscoe (3100) as much as they can. Since he returned from his brief injury, Briscoe has played 23, 19, 16, 20, and 24 minutes, making it hard for Augustin to reach his value there. It does, however, mean Briscoe would be a really sneaky punt that no one else will be on that could pay off big.


I also want to point out that I have been talking about Khem Birch (3200) consistently since Bamba went down. He has put up 17, 16.25, 15.75, and 22.25 DKP in those 4 games. While he may not have the ceiling you like on a larger slate, he is exactly the kind of person you need on a 3 game slate to help you fit everyone in. Especially in this matchup against the Hawks. No one I read has said a damn thing about Khem, but he is a consistent producer when given backup minutes, and the Magic have no other choice.


The Hawks are having a bit of a logjam problem themselves. Trae Young (6800) is the safest play here. He has been the most consistent producer lately, is getting the most minutes on the team, and is in the position the Magic are weakest against. Collins (7800) is the 2nd safest from a minutes perspective, but he has been cold as ice lately from a production perspective and I find it hard to pay for him in a single lineup.


At the Wing, the Hawks have Huerter (4900), Prince (4900), Bazemore (4300), and Bembry (3700). That’s a lot of people that need 30 minutes to get good production that won’t be able to do so until someone gets injured. It’s going to be hard to pick someone here, but I would say Prince and Huerter seem to be the safest in terms of getting 30 minutes. But I am very worried.


Heat vs Warriors - TIP OFF: 830pm

Stats and Stuff

O/U - 222, GS -14.5

Heat

Pace - 27th

Injuries - Dragic, Jones OUT, Wade QUESTIONABLE

Trade Deadline Changes - Tyler Johnson, Ellington GONE, Ryan Anderson ADDED

DvP Says: Weakest Against PF and SF

Players in the top 50 in Usage: Wade (32th)

Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Richardson (7th - SG), Justise (9th - SF), Whiteside (2nd - C)

Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: NONE

Warriors

Pace - 6th

Injuries - Iguodala QUESTIONABLE

Trade Deadline Changes - NONE

DvP Says: Weakest against PF.

Players in the top 50 in Usage: Cousins (17th) Curry (19th), Durant (27th), Klay (45th)

Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Durant (10th - SF), Dray (1st - PF), Cousins (10th - C)

Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: Klay (5th Worst - SG)


BREAKDOWN

This game is going to be a tough one to love. I know you can’t predict a blowout (or so they say), but this has a GS -14 total. The Warriors are home. Everyone that matters is healthy. Look at those usage ranks. The Warriors have FOUR people in the top 50. If you don’t think that has a major effect on their productions, you are crazy. And you don’t understand that production in DFS is a zero-sum game. With Curry (9300) and Durant (9100) still over 9k, I will have a hard time going there in a game that will have the lowest total on the slate, the highest spread, and will be a huge pace down spot against a defensive team. Cousins (6800) is stuck at 25 minutes until after the all-star break, so no thank you. The Heat are weakest against PF, but Dray (6000) is hugely inconsistent. He should be getting you 40 DKP a night, but he’s having a hard time even cracking 25.


The one person I would take a flier on if you want is Klay (6300). The way they do the rotations, he is more insulated from blowouts than other players. He is pretty safe to get 30 minutes no matter what, including run where he is the big fish on the floor. I don’t think he’s super safe here, but I also think he can get you 40+ real points in 30 minutes.


If Iguodala misses, I would have interest in Quinn Cook (3200) as a nice sneaky punt play who would get both primary backup minutes and blow out run.


On the other side of the court, I have a really hard time trusting anyone on the Heat still. If they are trying to win this game, they are going to need to play Whiteside (7100) over 30 minutes tonight. If he does that, he should get you 50 DKP again. If he doesn’t, how can we be surprised they only gave him 20 minutes? Or that he got into quick foul trouble against this ridiculous team of Monstars.


The only other people I would really look at are the cheaper punt type plays, namely Olynyk (4200), Waiters (4200), Bam (4000), and McGruder (3300). I expect this to be a large chunk of the production from the 2nd unit (and, later, the blow out unit).

Either way, this is a game of Minesweeper where you have to pick one square and you have 3 choices and you have no way of knowing which is going to win it for you and which ones will blow everything up..


Ok that’s it. My friend never came over, So I’m having a hard time tonight. I think I’m gonna watch some Monty Python on Netflix and try to get some sleep. Best of luck tomorrow everyone!!! If you haven’t told the people you love how important they are, try to do it tomorrow! Don’t forget how important it is to both them AND to you.

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