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bathrobeDFS breakdown for February 28th!


Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!


Yesterday In Review:

***My Lineup-*** -

Name | Price | DKP | Value | Proj Own | Real Own | Diff

D Lo | 8700 | 42.25 | 4.9x | 21.4%| 25.9%| 4.5

Beal | 8900 | 45.5 | 5.1x | 17.5%| 19.1%| 1.6

LeBron | 11100 | 61 | 5.5x | 45.4%| 45.6%| 0.2

Looney | 3300 | 12 | 3.6x | 15%| 18.5%| 3.5

Powell | 4300 | 27.25 | 6.3x | 22%| 28.9%| 6.9

Payton | 5200 | 37.25 | 7.2x | 3.9%| 20.7%| 16.8!!!!

Bam | 4000 | 34.5 | 8.6x | 52.7%| 49.8%| 2.9

Tyus | 4500 | 29.5 | 6.6x | 50.4%| 47.7%| 2.7

**Total** | 50000 | 289.25 | 5.785x| | |


***My Best Lineup***

Name | Price | DKP

D Lo | 8700 | 42.25

Bogdan | 4900 | 58

DFS | 3800 | 15.25

Barnes | 4600 | 38.5

Drummond | 9000 | 44.25

Elf | 5200 | 37.25

Doncic | 9300 | 48.5

BroLo | 4500 | 60.25

**Total** | 50000 | 314.25


***My Worst Lineup***

Name | Price | DKP

Tyus | 4500 | 29.5

D Lo | 8700 | 42.25

DFS | 3800 | 15.25

Dray | 5900 | 13.75

Powell | 4300 | 27.25

Beal | 8900 | 45.5

Lauri | 8600 | 35.5

Elf | 5200 | 37.25

**Total** | 49900 | 246.25


***Best Possible Lineup-*** - [Using the free lineup rewind tool on fantasycruncher](https://www.fantasycruncher.com/lineup-rewind/draftkings/NBA/), I find the highest possible lineup that could have been played.

Name | Price | DKP

Trae | 8300 | 62

Lamb | 5300 | 50

Bembry | 3300 | 43.5

Ariza | 5700 | 51

KAT | 10600 | 71.5

Bledsoe | 6500 | 67

Bogdan | 4900 | 58

Rondo | 5000 | 48.75

**Total** | 49600 | 451.75


Analysis-


So, I started out where I said I was going to, locking in D Lo and Beal. I loved them so much today. I also wanted to lock in LeBron and run him back with Elf, both of who I loved, as I said last night. With all the value opening up, it made all that possible. So I locked in Looney, Bam, Powell, and Tyus and decided to just eat some chalk. Little did I know that EVERYONE there was chalk. Jeez. Either way, I loved this lineup. And I built a lot of my multi entry lineups around this one as well.


The Daily Slate:

Ahhhhh. Finally. Back to a normal sized slate. No more of this alternating 3 and 11 game malarkey. I was so sick of it. I can’t wait to get back to the normal tomorrow. It’s going to be a really fun slate too. Let’s dive right in!!


Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):


Sabonis OUT - With Sabonis out again, we are going to be able to, once again, count on Turner (6000), Thad Young (5900), and, to a much lesser extent, O’Quinn (4000) (whose price is starting to come down again). I love Myles, since they will need him to get 35 minutes, KAT is a bad defender, and he’s really underpriced. But I REALLY love Thad Young, who will get extra run with no Sabonis, and gets matched up against Saric, who is just awful. Like Alexander’s day bad. MIN is also very bad against the perimeter (28th out of 30), so I also love Bojan (5400) and Wes Matthews (4500) again. MIN is weakest against PG, on top of all this, so with Collison (6000) seeing another price drop, we can consider him again tonight if Teague starts.


Kevin Love - Love is going to get 30 minutes against a Knicks team that won’t have DeAndre Jordan. Two games ago, against a similarly poor Grizzlies team, Love got 54 DKP in 26 minutes. Last game, against Nurkic, one of the best defenders, he went an uncharacteristic 5-14 from the field. He still put up 36.5 DKP. Tonight, I would be shocked if Love doesn’t get to 50 DKP again. There are few better values on the slate, period. I would also be a big fan of playing Clarkson (5100) here. He should get most of the 2nd unit usage and should push for 30 DKP again.


Sixers vs Thunder - This is, by far, the best game on the slate. We have a 239 total here and, even though OKC is projected to win by 8 with Embiid Out, that doesn’t mean this isn’t a fantastic game to target. We are watching a game between the fastest and 10th fastest teams, who give up the 8th and 11th most DK points per game in the NBA. The first thing we need to tackle is the fact that, not only will Embiid miss the game, but so will Boban. This means the Sixers are going to be really thing on the front court. Here is my guess as to what happens- Bolden (4000) gets a bunch of run, but doesn’t get a lot of usage. Amir Johnson (3200) or Patton (3200) will get some backup run. I would also expect Tobias Harris (7300) to get a bunch of extra run, and a bunch of extra usage, as well. He should be lined up against Jerami Grant, who is the 2nd best player to attack on this team. Mike Scott (3800) got 30 minutes last game and could easily do it again. I don’t think he’ll produce a ton with those minutes, but he will get them. So, right now, we have a ton of people playing, only 1 of whom gets any usage. That means that Simmons (8400) should be one of the people in this game pushing for a 3x2, with him having one of those games he should get closer to 25 real points. Redick (5000) is in the best spot to attack the Thunder, so I like him best of anyone. He could get another 16+ shots up here, and I assume he will not go 5-16 again. Even with that 5-16, he still almost got 30 DKP. He’s just far, far too underpriced. Butler (7100) will be lined up against PG13 so… no thanks. On the other side, I am honestly really, really great with playing any of the 6 most expensive Thunder players in this matchup without Embiid or Boban. And pretty much in order. Russ (11100) gets matched up against Simmons, which sucks, but he also doesn’t have to deal with Embiid, which is awesome. That’s gonna be a huge benefit to him in this matchup. And should greatly increase his 3x2 chances as well. PG13 (10400) will see a ton of Jimmy Butler, which sucks. But he also plays staggered rotations to Russ, meaning he should be able to avoid Butler a lot of time, and be the lead dog on the floor for long stretches. Both of these guys can get you 60 DKP tonight, together. Adams (6300) will be matched up against Bolden. I mean. Come on. He isn’t someone I like targeting, given his usage, and his recent stretch, but, in this matchup, how can you not love him? Grant (4900) is matched up against Harris, who is one of the weakest defenders on this team. I also think he increases his 2x2 potential with Embiid and Boban out. Schroder (4700) is still underpriced for his usage in the 2nd unit. He’s scoring dependent, but he should be able to make mincemeat of TJ McConnell and whoever else they try to put on him. Noel (3900) is safe, no matter what. He will get a ton of backup minutes against NO ONE, where he should eat. And, if this game does blow out, he will get extended run. Either way, he’s in a great spot and no one will be on him. Man, what a great game to target a ton of people from. It’s a shame they will be so damned popular.


Jokic - I mean, I know I don’t do it anymore but this is the play of the day, for me. As I discussed yesterday, The Jazz are a great defensive team, but they have a big problem defending the Center position. Jokic (10000) is going to absolutely crush this team, single handedly. I don’t even need to go into it any more. I will though, this is a pace up spot. And Jokic, by far, controls the usage on this side of the game. He’s in one of those spots I would be more surprised if he doesn’t get a 3x2 than if he does.


Jazz - While this is a pace down spot for Utah, Denver can be attacked pretty easy at a couple of the spots where the Jazz are strong. First and foremost, with Harris still limited, the Nuggets are horrible at defending against the SG spot. Donovan (8000) is way, way too cheap here. He crushed that last night (well, he has 22 points at the half, so I have to guess), and he will do the same tonight. If you are playing Jokic (and you should), you should try to run it back with Donovan here. Given the height of the Nuggets squad as well, this is a game I would expect Gobert (8200)to see closer to the 35-38 minute side of his range. Which would greatly increase his projections, and make him another fantastic play tonight. I also love Jae (4200) in any game like this. It’s just going to be far too close, and he’s going to get a ton of important minutes. He should be priced in the 5k range every day, and we should just be taking advantage of that until the price is corrected.


Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):


Warriors vs Magic - Man. Another TooManyCooks situation. Again, that doesn’t mean that there’s nothing we can get here, especially on a 6 gamer. It’s just that we need to be cognizant of the fact that, with Cousins playing tomorrow, the Warriors are going to be in a pace down spot, against a Magic team that gives up the least DKPPG and they are going to have 5 people that will be spreading usage out. I would not mind Cousins (7900) here. They should need him to play major minutes against Vuc and Gordon here. If he gets more than 30 minutes, he could easily get you 50 DKP. I also always want to say the same thing - Klay (6500) and Dray (6000) are cheap enough that they shouldn’t be able to kill you (unless they get 4 fouls in 10 minutes). I wouldn’t be shocked if the Warriors rest someone here. But we will have to see later on. On the Magic side, they are in an incredible pace up spot against a Warriors team playing 3rd fastest in the NBA. Vuc (9300) should be 10k here. Even going against Cousins and Dray, Vuc should clear 50 DKP. As far as anyone else, I would want to attack the Warriors through Klay, meaning if I go anywhere else on this team, I would go to Fournier (5800). With Briscoe doubtful again, I would definitely take another chance on Grant (3600) here. He let a TON of people down last game, so, even though we don’t see a lot of value this slate, I don’t expect him to be as popular as he may have been otherwise. This game has the 2nd highest total on the slate, and, believe it or not, it’s only the 3rd highest spread tonight.


Fizdale - I don’t want to really trust anyone here. Fizdale is a horrorshow. But, as we saw, that unpredictability can win you a tournament. So, if you wanna go for Mitch Robinson (6400), I would go there. Love is a good defender, but Robinson should be coming off the bench against Zizic, who he can whomp. He may not get another 14 blocks, but he should still get his fair share today. His price is coming up, but it’s still not high enough for how he plays minus Jordan. I would also take either Trier (4000) or Dotson (4600), one of who should pay off. Additionally, if you wanna hope Ellenson (3700) gets run again, I wouldn’t put it past them. I mean.. Why not? They are so terrible.


Situations to monitor:


Teague QUESTIONABLE - Teague was not able to play yesterday, which paved the way for Tyus (4500) to get the start. The Pacers are best in the NBA against PG, so it’s not as good a play as it was yesterday, but he’s still in line for a bunch of minutes, and to easily get his value today. I would also love KAT (10500) more if Teague is out. He’s already one of the better plays on the slate, even though he’s going against a slow, defensive team. It’s hard to really like anyone else here. Indiana is too good defensively.


Whiteside and James Johnson QUESTIONABLE - The 2nd lowest total and the highest spread on the slate, this game is just not fun either. Houston is in a pace down spot, but Harden (11000) should still be able to get his. His price keeps falling and, even with CP3, he could get you the 60 you need here. He will be going against one of Miami’s weaknesses, so he gets a bonus there as well. The only problem is, again, Miami is slow, and defensive, and don’t let up a lot of DKPPG. CP3 (8300) will be matched up against Justise (5000) who is a great defender (and vice versa) making it tough to trust either. The rest is up in the air, as far as I am concerned- If Whiteside (6800) can play, he has a great matchup after being able to rest up yesterday. If he can play, I would also have less interest in Capela (6700) since Whiteside is such a solid defender. If Whiteside misses, I would fire up all the Bam (4000) I could manage to fit in to one lineup. I would also give serious consideration to Capela, who would have a much, much easier defensive matchup. Whiteside’s absence also makes it easier for Harden to attack the basket, by the way, so we have that too. If Johnson misses, the Heat will have Jones (3400) and Olynyk (4900) at the 4. Both of those would be good plays, but Jones is far, far too cheap. The Rockets also have a big question mark- depending on if they start Faried (5800) or Gordon (4800), I would have interest in whoever they start. The last thing I’ll point out is, I want to see how they proceed with Dragic (4400) who had been limited in his return from injury. Last night, he managed 27 points, 3 rebounds, and 1 assist in 20 minutes. He also got 5 fouls in that time, so we don’t know if he would have seen more run. If he plays, and gets the extra run today, we HAVE to play him at that price. We really have to see how the Heat proceed here, as well.


Alright! Not the best 6 game slate, but thank god it’s not 3 or 11 games anymore. Let’s all make some money, and make sure to DM me about getting a link to Flick. It’s really awesome there, seriously.

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