Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!
Yesterday In Review:
***My Lineup-*** -
Name | Price | DKP | Value | Proj Own | Real Own | Diff
Bayless | 5400 | 19.5 | 3.6x | 15%| 41.8%| 26.8!!!!!
Jaylen Brown | 4900 | 25.25 | 5.2x | 18.3%| 46%| 27.7!!!!!
Simmons | 8600 | 40.75 | 4.7x | 16.7%| 23.4%| 6.7
Theis | 3500 | 19.75 | 5.6x | 7.5%| 14.4%| 6.9
KAT | 9700 | 54.5 | 5.6x | 7.4%| 20.8%| 13.4!!!
TJ | 3500 | 16.25 | 4.6x | 2.7%| 3.2%| 0.5
Ivan Rabb | 3600 | 41.75 | 11.6x | 59.2%| 46%| 13.2
Embiid | 10500 | 65.25 | 6.2x | 37.3%| 30.1%| 7.2
**Total** | 49700 | 283 | 5.694x| | |
***Best Possible Lineup-*** - [Using the free lineup rewind tool on fantasycruncher](https://www.fantasycruncher.com/lineup-rewind/draftkings/NBA/), I find the highest possible lineup that could have been played.
Name | Price | DKP
Sexton | 4200 | 41
LouWill | 7300 | 47.75
Fournier | 5200 | 43.75
Rabb | 3600 | 41.75
Embiid | 10500 | 65.25
Kemba | 8700 | 60.25
Layman | 3500 | 41
Whiteside | 6900 | 54.75
**Total** | 49900 | 395.5
Name | Price | DKP
Kemba | 8700 | 60.25
Ross | 5000 | 42.25
Aaron Gordon | 6200 | 46.5
Rabb | 3600 | 41.75
Embiid | 10500 | 65.25
Fournier | 5200 | 43.75
Layman | 3500 | 41
Whiteside | 6900 | 54.75
**Total** | 49600 | 395.5
Man, this slate turned into a clusterfuck. I kept Embiid, Bayless, and Brown in my lineup all day but then everything else changed so rapidly and thoroughly it was all about adapting. First, I got Theis in there. I liked him yesterday, but with Williams and Morris out, he was gonna get the minutes. Next, Gasol was declared out (as was Green) for Memphis, which meant I wanted to get both Rabb and KAT on the other side. I didn’t think people would adjust so quickly, but both was really highly owned. Then Redick was declared out at about 755 so I worked it around to give me Simmons and TJ McConnell since they would be getting extra run with the injuries, and this was supposed to be a close game, with the highest total on the slate.
The Daily Slate:
Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day
Matchup Specific Ceiling is a “quasi-metric” I use to make decisions. If you haven’t read my explanation, please check out this link right here
The explanation begins in the “injury/lineup news” section about halfway down.
In this section, I will pick the player who has fewest factors preventing him from reaching his ceiling, considering spread, pace, O/U, defense, usage, teammate health, and other factors.
Jrue - If you read my analysis a couple days ago, you know that, when things point to a good game for Jrue (9000), you really just need to hop on board. As good as it was for him then, this game is far, far better. First, as we saw last game, when he finished one assist from a triple-double, and shot a cold 0-7 from 3 point range, Jrue can easily pass 60 DKP with the 3x2 bonus if just a couple more shots go in (and, if you watched the end of the game, he had plenty of chances for the 10 assists, but his teammates missed some shots). On top of that, even without Oladipo, Indiana is a steady, slow, defensive team. Now they get to go against the Bulls who, needless to say, are horribly awful. While he may not have the highest ceiling of everyone tonight, anyone who tells you he doesn’t have one of the highest is wrong, crazy, or lying to you. He may not get you 100 like Harden or Jokic, but I don’t think it’s crazy at all to see Jrue get over 80+ if he gets close to a ceiling game. He will also come at a huge discount to both of them. In terms of the Vegas information, you can’t get better than this: a 233.5 O/U, with a PICK EM spread. WOOOOO! Pick em!! You know that means we need to give extra consideration to this game. While I don’t like the fact this is a pace down spot, the fact that Vegas thinks this will get over 230 points means that there will be PLENTY of possessions and PLENTY of scoring tonight. With all that, we also need to take into account that Elf, AD, and Moore will all be OUT tomorrow, Mirotic is DOUBTFUL (he won’t play), and Randle is QUESTIONABLE. I think Randle’s presence will be a boon for Jrue so I hope he winds up playing. Either way, though, Jrue is, once again, going to be the primary piece on this roster. If the Pels score 117 or so, a lot of that responsibility will be in the lap of Jrue today. The best of all this- the Bulls are the worst team in the NBA against SGs and Zach LaVine is one of the worst individual defenders in the NBA as well. This means that, while Frank Jackson and the 3 other starters will see mediocre to decent defenders, Jrue will have the world in his hands. Much like the Pacers before them, the Bulls have a tall frontcourt with an equally tall backup. However, their guards/wings are much smaller. Dunn is 6’4”, LaVine and Selden are 6’5”, Markkanen and RoLo are both 7’0”. If they decide to start Portis, he is 6’11”. I broke down all of the Pels heights a couple days ago, but needless to say they are going to have a hard time keeping up with the height here. Okafor is 6’11”, Randle is 6’9” (if he plays) and so is Diallo. Miller is 6’8”. They just don’t have the people to match up against the height of this Bulls squad. So, what does this mean- First, Markkanen (6900) should also be locked into your lineups. He will either be matched up against Darius Miller, who he will demolish, or Julius Randle, who was the worst defensive C by DRPM. Second, this means that, once again, we can expect massive minutes out of Okafor (7300) and more minutes than normal for Diallo (3700). I don’t know if I can pay that price for Diallo, but Okafor remains a fantastic play in this matchup, and I will probably wind up with him tonight. Third, this means the Pels will be able to run their 3 guard sets a lot more. A couple of games ago, the Pels ran a smaller lineup in the back, with 3 of Frazier (4100), Jackson (4200), Ian Clark (3300)and Jrue on the court at the same time. The fact that the Bulls play a 6’5” SF means we should see more of those guards today then someone like a Kenrich Williams (5000) (who might wind up seeing backup PF minutes here). So, again, we have to dig a little deeper to see how the Pels are going to play with what they have. Everything says that Jrue is probably the best play on the slate, Okafor and Markkanen should smash it today as well, and the guards for the Pels should all see extra run, meaning you should be able to have some good punts there as well. Seriously, people. A 233.5 total with a PICK EM!!!! Come on!!
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Jokic - I often say that, when you first look over a slate, one of the first things you should do is check if the Nets are playing and then lock in whoever is going against them at Center. Well, today that is Jokic (10600). This game doesn’t have a spread or line right now, so I can’t say whether Vegas thinks it will stay close or not, but I can say that I expect it to. We will have to wait for the statuses of some players - Murray and Millsap are QUESTIONABLE for the Nugs and Crabbe is PROBABLE (with a small possibility LeVert plays) for BK - before we know anything on that front. The one thing I will tell you is that it doesn’t matter. If you don’t think Jrue is the MSC play today, it’s cause you think it’s Jokic. Over the last 15 games, the Nets are playing at the 3rd fastest pace in the NBA. Denver is 26th, which means this is about as good a pace up spot as we can hope for for someone. Jokic is 8th in the NBA in usage over that same span. The Nets don’t have anyone who will be able to match up with him. And, again, it doesn’t matter if both Murray and Millsap play today- Jokic should be one of the first people you are considering tonight. (This also means Plumlee (4400) is once again a fantastic play, as well).
Nets Shooters - Denver is, by far, weakest against wing players this season. A lot of that has to do with the fact that Gary Harris, one of their best defenders, has been out. Well, unfortunately for the Nuggets, Harris will be out again tomorrow meaning there will continue to be a glaring hole the Nets are well equipped to exploit. First up, Crabbe (4100) is coming back tomorrow. He’s been putting in some work in the G-League so we should wait to see just how limited he will be. I expect very, which would mean everyone else is almost as good as they would have been had he missed. The first person I will look at is Napier (5300) who has been playing a really solid wing lately. He’s taking the chances, he’s doing some ballhandling, and he won’t be afraid to go after this Nuggets team. He went 0-10 from 3 against the Bucks (and still managed about 30 DKP), and he will face much less resistance tonight. I also love Joe Harris (4700) who is consistent and should be able to flirt with 30 DKP here, barring Crabbe not facing a minutes limit. I also think that D’Angelo (8100) is going to shoot a bunch as well and I have no problem if he’s your first pick from this Nets squad. His usage certainly deserves it. I just want to try to get some of the lower priced people here who still have the ability to put up 10 threes in a game.
Bagley - If you ignore the minimal minutes Nene can muster right now, the tallest player on the Rockets is Faried, who is 6’8”. The Kings have shown an overwillingness at times to go small, putting WCS (5500) on the bench and letting, formerly, Bjelica (4200) man the 5. Well, in their last game, we saw the Kings go small but, instead of Bjelica, the beneficiary was Bagley (5800) In case you weren’t paying attention, Bagley responded in a huge way: He got 31 minutes and put up 24p/12r/4a/3b/1s on his way to 55 DKP. That is following 2 games where he got 33.75 DKP and 37.5 DKP. This isn’t chasing points here. This is acknowledging the Kings love to play small and the Rockets will do nothing but. It should also be noted that, in this case, playing small is a bit of a misnomer since Bagley is 6’11” and will still be able to take advantage of Faried’s height. The Rockets have been awful against bigs since Capela went down and they will continue to be terrible tonight. Take advantage of that here with Bagley.
Faried - As I just discussed, Faried (7000) is 6’8”. He is the biggest guy on this team. The Kings have the following people on their roster that are taller than Faried: Koufos and WCS are 7’. Skal and Bagley are 6’11”, and Giles and Bjelica are 6’10”. What this means is, first, the Kings bigs are going to have a field day (hence my Bagley recommendation). Second, Faried is going to have to play as many minutes as he can handle today. He has been putting up about 40 DKP on 30 minutes so, any more than that is a huge bonus on someone who will already more than pay off his price point. I will of course point out that Harden (12600) is out of this world and CP3 (7100) is getting back to his usual amount of minutes, should also push 40 DKP tonight, will be underowned, and is going against one of the worst PG defenses in the NBA. This game has an awesome 233.5 total and the Rockets are only 2.5 point road favorites. HOU is also in a pace up spot against the Kings. So makes sure you have a lot of this game, if you can manage it. This game and the Pels game are the 2 best on this slate by miles.
Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):
Wizards vs Bucks - These two teams met a couple of games ago in Washington and it wasn’t really even close. Additionally, Bledsoe was out that game. Now the Bucks get to play this Wizards team at home, at full strength, and I honestly don’t see it going too well for people looking for players getting 35-40 minutes in a close game. I will preface all of that to say, this game has a 230 total, which is awesome. It is between the 6th and 11th paced teams, which is also awesome. But it is also between a team that is horrible against the perimeter and the team that shoots more 3s than anyone not named the Warriors. My favorite play back then is my favorite play today - Brook Lopez (5500). He went 21p/6r/1a/2b/2s and got 39 DKP and, since he only played 27 minutes, the blowout shouldn’t really hamper him that much anyway. If you want to take a shot on one of the backups that get blowout run, like a Hill (3500) or DJ Wilson (3400) I also think that would be a shrewd play today. Of course, Giannis (11400) is always great, especially if his ownership is way too low. The Wizards are almost as weak against PF as they are against C, and Giannis is a freak. On the Washington side, they will be facing the best defense in the NBA in the Bucks. They are above average against every position. Now that they have Bledsoe back, we can’t even look to exploit them with guards. The only position the Bucks have been consistently weak against this year is PF, meaning I would be a big fan of a sneaky Otto Porter (5800) play. He is coming off a 38.25DKP and 31.5 DKP performance. He is starting. He is playing almost 40 minutes. He should be able to get 6x today and I can’t imagine too many folks will be on him.
Spurs vs. Golden State Monstars - White is OUT, DeRozan is OUT, LMA is OUT. The Spurs will have the following starting lineup tomorrow: Forbes (4300), Belinelli (4000), Gay (5900), Bertans (4100), and Gasol (3200). Right now the spread is GS -11. I imagine that will be closer to -16 by game time. This is going to be an abject slaughter and it’s not even going to be fun to watch, honestly. Why play anyone on the Warriors when they may not need to play 2 quarters? If you want to go here, knock yourself out. Klay (6200) can go off any game, and has been doing so lately. The Spurs bench is Patty Mills (4200), Poeltl (3200), Cunningham (3000), Quincy Pondexter (3000), Chimezie Metu (3000), Kendrick Farmer (3000), and Lonnie Walker IV (3000). I made up one of those names and odds are you have absolutely no idea which one it is, do you?? If you guessed Kendrick Farmer, you are correct. The point is: yeeeeeeesh. Feel free to play any of these guys because they could all get 20 DKP in the 20 minutes they will be forced into against the 3rd string Warriors. Speaking of which, this is a great game to get all over Looney (4000) and the other backups that could get some blowout run here (Cook (3200), McKinnie (3200), et. al.)
Situations to monitor:
The New Mavericks/The New Hornets??? - Ok. I have a fuckton to say about this, so buckle in chucklefucks. Fuckbuckets? I dunno. I’m so tired and I like alliteration. Whatever sounds the coolest and isn’t insulting? Anyway… The first thing is that the new guys for the Mavs will all be in uniform tonight. What we are monitoring is not whether or not they will play, but how they will be used, what the starting lineup will be, how the rotations will go, how many minutes they can be expected to get, etc… What I can tell you is that, if you take a look at this starting lineup the Mavs are projected to put up tomorrow, there is something that really, really stands out. Doncic (9500) is projected to be the starting PG. I have been telling you to get on him before his price gets to 10k.
Well, we are going to be there a lot sooner than you may have thought. Doncic is 6’7”. Hardaway (4900) is projected to be the starting SG. He is going to have to compete with Doncic for usage, but he is also going to have plenty of shots to take. Plus, the Hornets are very bad against SGs. Hardaway is 6’6”. Dorian Finney-Smith or the appropriately initialed DFS (3900) is projected to be the starting SF. He doesn’t have enough usage to warrant consideration. But, DFS is 6’8”. At PF, The Mavs will have their one veteran, Barnes (5700). As I have noted in the past, he has had no problem letting the kid take this team over, much to his credit. I don’t have much interest in him with that in mind. Barnes is 6’8”. Projected to start at C is Maxi Kleber (4300) who the Mavs had been using as a PF when Jordan was playing C. He is matched up against the position against which the Hornets are weakest, though that might change considerably with Zeller back. It is also possible a Dwight Powell (4500) or Salah Mejri (3300) see the start (although Mejri will tend to be started against bigger guys than the Hornets have- for example he started against Drummond a couple games ago and then didn’t play last game against the Cavs). Kleber and Powell are 6’11” and Mejri is 7’2”. The Hornets are in a lot of trouble here. Look at the heights there. The smallest person the Mavs are starting is 6.5 feet tall.
Of course, I must point out it is possible they start Brunson (4300) at the point and move Doncic to SF. If that happens, Brunson is only 6’3”. When you look at the Hornets, Kemba (8800) is only 6’1”. **Lamb (5600)**is 6’5”. **Batum (5000)**is 6’8”. Marvin (4900) is 6’9”. And, depending on what they do with Zeller on the 2nd game of a back-to-back, Biyombo (3700) is 6’9”, Hernangomez (3700) is 6’11” and Zeller (4300) is 7’. What does this tell us? First, If the projected starting lineup is accurate, I feel bad for Kemba. Whoever guards him will have at least 5 inches on him. And if it’s Doncic, it’ll be 6. And I love whoever Kemba has to guard because, again, they are going to have 5 or 6 inches on him. So I really, really love both Luka and Hardaway’s spots here, though that isn’t factoring in price. I would also think that the Hornets best way to attack the Mavs will be through everyone that isn’t Kemba, and that does not fill me with warm feelings of comfort. Barnes is one of the worst ranked defenders in the NBA, so Marvin would probably have the easiest matchup. But he’s still Marvin. Lamb and Batum would also have great matchups. I am never excited to play Batum, but this might be a game he has no chance but to get off his ass and shoot. Lamb is always someone who loves to shoot and he should have to. Plus, Hardaway is a pretty shitty defender as well. Until Zeller is back to getting his 30 minutes a game, I am going to have to stay away from all of those Centers. WE ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER THE HORNETS MAY BE GETTING MARC GASOL. While I am going to bed, the news is the Hornets and Grizzlies are really close to a deal that will send Gasol to Charlotte. If that happens, we are going to, obviously, figure out who the Hornets are sending away and adjust accordingly.
The initial rumor involved Malik Monk, but nothing has been made official, obviously. Tony Parker was injured yesterday, so I doubt very much he plays tonight. This means the Hornets 2nd unit is going to be really thin. Unfortunately, it is in the 2nd unit that the Hornets will need to take advantage of some real height matchups. Brunson is 6’3”, Trey Burke is 6’1”, Devin Harris is 6’3” and Courtney Lee is 6’5”. This means that, after the initial really large lineup, the Mavs are going to be playing someone 6’5” or less at the 3 if they do a full switch. The Hornets will have Graham (3200) at 6’2”, Bacon (3100), Bridges (3400), and MKG (3700) all of who are 6’7”. I would have no problem taking a chance on any of them, considering they are going to be needed, and will be the only Hornets with real height advantages anywhere in this game. Finally, I will point out this game has a “meh” total of 216.5, but a close enough spread of DAL -5. The reason the total is so “meh” is the Hornets are 21st in pace and the Mavs are 27th in pace. With all the question marks here, I can understand if you want to sit back and see how this all goes down. But, if, like me, you don’t mind attacking where other people are taking a wait-and-see approach, that should give you a considerable amount of information to help you make your mind up. In short, Doncic good but super expensive. Hardaway fantastic. Lamb good but risky.
Devin Booker QUESTIONABLE - I will start off by saying that this game has a 221 total but a horrible spread of UTA -14. This is going to be a hard game to want to spend a lot of our salary on as it is. If Booker is out, this game is one where we will only really look at some of the punts. He was a late add to the injury report with a hamstring issue so, in a game they are already projected to lose by 14, why would they risk him exacerbating the injury. If he plays, I will be really worried about the hammy and will probably stay away. However, I do have interest in Ayton (6500). I’ve talked multiple times about how the Jazz are filled with great defenders. Gobert, specifically, is one of the best defenders in the NBA. However, the Jazz are far below league average against Centers. We have seen plenty of examples where Centers were the only real way to attack this Jazz team and, if you think this game stays close for some reason, the most logical reason why will be Ayton. For me, considering I expect this to blow out, it means I have a lot of interest in Holmes (4500) who will get both the backup minutes and the blow out run. Also, if Booker misses, I don’t know how you don’t take a chance on a Troy Daniels (3100). Oubre (5800) and Jackson (5500) would also be much better plays, would get even MORE shots, and are priced low enough the blow out wouldn’t hurt us too much. On the Utah side, Neto (3700) is PROBABLE. If he isn’t going to see a minutes limit, he is an amazing play as the only backup PG the Jazz will have, against the Suns who are HORRIBLE against PGs, in a game Rubio won’t need to play more than 3 quarters. Gobert (8500) is in the best spot of anyone on the slate and, if you don’t care at all about blow outs, Gobert should be one of your first looks today. I would also look to the Jazz that would get the blowout run on top of backup minutes, namely Crowder (4600), Korver (3800), and Royce (3500).
Ok. I wanted to go to sleep about 3 hours ago, before I even started, so I will try to eat some dinner and then go do that. People keep telling me I need to eat, but it’s just been so hard. Best of luck tonight everyone!!!