Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!
Yesterday In Review:
***My Lineup-*** -
Name | Price | DKP | Value | Proj Own | Real Own | Diff
Canaan | 3000 | 26.5 | 8.8x | 0.1%| 11.3%| 11.2
Clarkson | 5200 | 38 | 7.3x | 20.1%| 13.6%| 6.5
Wiggins | 6000 | 51 | 8.5x | 8.9%| 25.7%| 16.8!!!
Markkanen | 7000 | 59.5 | 8.5x | 12.2%| 36.6%| 24.4!!!!!!
Plumlee | 5400 | 30.5 | 5.7x | 5.3%| 16.8%| 11.5
Wade | 5000 | 26 | 5.2x | 6.1%| 11.9%| 5.8
Julius | 8000 | 30 | 3.8x | 4.7%| 6.3%| 1.6
KAT | 10000 | 52.5 | 5.3x | 22.3%| 27.1%| 4.8
**Total** | 49600 | 314 | 6.331x| | |
***My Best Lineup-*** - 1311th in the Quarter Jukebox
Name | Price | DKP
Clarkson | 5200 | 38
LaVine | 6900 | 41.25
Wiggins | 6000 | 51
Plumlee | 5400 | 30.5
KAT | 10000 | 52.5
Klay | 6300 | 44.5
Markkanen | 7000 | 59.5
Canaan | 3000 | 26.5
**Total** | 49800 | 343.75
***Best Possible Lineup-*** - [Using the free lineup rewind tool on fantasycruncher](https://www.fantasycruncher.com/lineup-rewind/draftkings/NBA/), I find the highest possible lineup that could have been played.
Name | Price | DKP
DSJ | 5800 | 48.5
Oubre | 5900 | 53.5
Wiggins | 6000 | 51
Nance | 5800 | 50.25
Drummond | 8600 | 66
Frazier | 3900 | 40.25
Markkanen | 7000 | 59.5
Whiteside | 6800 | 53.75
**Total** | 49800 | 422.75
Analysis-
I’m gonna make this quick, again, cause of how much longer this type of article takes. My locks were KAT and Julius. I wanted to pivot off of Brow’s popularity with Randle, who I thought would do fine regardless. Markkanen was also a lock, since I had been talking him up since I did the article earlier. Once Millsap was declared out, I put in Plumlee. I also wanted to pivot off Sexton with Clarkson, since I wrote about how much I liked Clarkson today anyway. This gave me 3 more spots. I wanted to have as much leeway as I could get, so I went with Canaan, Wiggins and Wade in case Teague was limited and everything worked out for Canaan to start. When that happened, I just let it ride.
The Daily Slate:
Given all the breaking news and trades and everything else that we need to consider from the last couple of days, I am going to format this differently today. This will be the second time this will be a specific game-by-game breakdown. This should help to discuss every game in greater depth, and how the roster changes may or may not affect the different games tonight, instead of just a pick or two I like. I will either go back to normal for tomorrow’s slate, or Monday’s.
Spurs vs Jazz - TIP OFF: 5pm - SHOWDOWN SLATE ONLY (All Times Eastern)
This is a showdown slate, so I will just give you all the stats and stuff I have, with any changes that happened (which was none, but still. I will keep the format going.)
Stats and Stuff
O/U - 221, UTAH -6.5
Spurs
Pace - 16th (All Pace rankings are from the teams’ last 15 games)
Injuries - White OUT, Walker QUESTIONABLE
Trade Deadline Changes - NONE
DvP Says: Worst in NBA against PG. Also Subpar against SG (All DvP results are the numbers over the last month)
Players in the top 50 in Usage: LMA (16th), DeRozan (24th) (All Usage ranks are from the team’s last 15 games)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: White (4th - PG), DeRozan (8th - SG), Gay (7th - SF),
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: LMA (4th Worst - C)
Jazz
Pace - 12th
Injuries - Exum OUT, Sefolosha QUESTIONABLE
Trade Deadline Changes - NONE
DvP Says: Weakest against C
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Donovan (3rd)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Rubio (9th - PG), Donovan (4th - SG), Ingles (3rd - SF), Favors (8th - PF), Gobert (1st - C)
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: NONE
Cavs vs Pacers - TIP OFF: 7pm
Stats and Stuff
O/U - N/A
Cavs
Pace - 24th
Injuries - Osman and Tristan OUT, Kevin Love OUT, Knight QUESTIONABLE
Trade Deadline Changes - Alec Burks GONE, Chriss ADDED
DvP Says: Weakest against SF. Also Subpar against PG/PF.
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Clarkson (29th), Sexton (44th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: LOL
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: Sexton (2nd Worst - PG), Clarkson (3rd Worst - PG), Osman (2nd Worst - SF), Tristan (2nd Worst - C)
Pacers
Pace - 17th
Injuries - McDermott DOUBTFUL
Trade Deadline Changes - NONE
DvP Says: Weakest against SG
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Tyreke (32nd)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Joseph (3rd - PG), Collison (10th - PG), Tyreke (6th - SG), Myles (5th - C)
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: NONE
BREAKDOWN
This game doesn’t have a total yet, but I think it’s safe to assume this game is going to get real bad for the Cavs, and quick. They were 10 point underdogs against the Wizards. And the Wizards would be 10 point underdogs if they came into Indy. I don’t expect them to put the spread at -20, but I don’t think anyone would be surprised if you checked the score at the half and saw it was 65-47. Osman and Tristan are still OUT. Love, apparently according to a plan no one told anyone else, played SIX MINUTES and then walked off the court. They said he was done for the night, and wouldn’t play tonight either. So that means the Cavs will be left with Zizic (5000) who, regardless of Love’s absence, only played 16 minutes last night and only got 6p and 1r. Nance (5700) got 33 minutes and I couldn’t recommend him more here. He will get his minutes regardless of if this game blows out, and, in the eventuality it does, he will get run regardless. Speaking of which, if you check above, you will see the Cavs recently acquired Chriss (3000). Yesterday he got a lot of the run Zizic would have and he responded with 13p and 8r. It’s not gonna break anything open, but, for the minimum, you bet your ass I will have a ton of exposure to Chriss tomorrow (in my one-ish lineup).
I also have interest in the incredible shallow guard positions for these Cavs. Again, Sexton (4800) and Clarkson (5300) are going to have to play minutes no matter what. They are also, by far, the 2 highest usage players on this team. While they will be going against a solid starting core, they will also be going against much worse backups they should be able to take advantage of. None of these Cavs are expensive enough for the minutes they’re gonna be getting tonight, even in a tough matchup.
On the other side of the court, this is a spot I would normally be a little more hesitant to get all over since it’s hard to commit a huge % of your salary to people you think won’t get enough minutes. However, the most expensive player on this Pacers team is Myles (6700) who will be able to dominate Chriss tomorrow and just put up 45 DKP in 27 minutes, showing he can still exceed value even if his minutes are limited. The last time the Pacers played, they were against the Clippers who, like the Cavs, are incredibly bad against both PF and C. This means, like then, I also love Thad (6200) and Sabonis (5900).
I should also point out here that Bojan (5800) has really stepped up since Oladipo went down. The Cavs are just as bad against SF as they are against everything else, so, if Bojan’s shot is falling, he could get you 30 points by the 4th quarter. Again, the price isn’t high enough that a blow out worries me. And if it doesn’t happen, they can win you the slate today.
If you think this game blows out, I would point to Holiday (3400) who has shown he can get into the mid-20s pretty easily if given the minutes, and, in a blow out here, he would get to do it against a horrific Cavs team.
Hornets vs Hawks - TIP OFF: 730pm
Stats and Stuff
O/U - 230, CHA -2.5
Hornets
Pace - 26th
Injuries - Parker OUT
Trade Deadline Changes - NONE
DvP Says: Weakest against SF.
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Kemba (10th), Monk (30th), Lamb (50th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: NONE
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM:
Hawks
Pace - 4th
Injuries - NONE
Trade Deadline Changes - Dorsey GONE
DvP Says: Worst in NBA against SF. 2nd Worst against PG. Also Subpar against SG/PF
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Trae (23rd)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Bazemore (3rd - SG), Huerter (10th - SG)
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: Trae (WORST - PG), Prince (4th Worst - SF), Collins (4th Worst - PF)
BREAKDOWN
This should be one of the worst games of the night from a basketball perspective, but one of the best for DFS purposes. It is a gold mine of things we should absolutely love. First, Kemba (9100) gets matched up with Trae (6800) who just reclaimed the title of worst defender in the NBA from Sexton. He carries this team on his back, Zeller (4200) has returned from injury, and Kemba has returned to the Kemba from a couple months back - someone that will keep getting you close to 60 DKP. He will do that again today, and I don’t expect nearly enough people to on him.
While I think they are risky, I would also take a stab at EITHER a Lamb (5300) or Batum (5000) who should also be able to take over the secondary scoring from Kemba. This is a massive pace up spot for the Hornets, going against one of the worst defenses in the NBA. And they have such a highly consolidated usage in Kemba, unless his price is ridiculous we can be HAPPY we don’t have to worry about all the variance here. We can lock Kemba in as a potential MSC Play today. Zeller is also working his way back to 30 minutes, and he’s just too cheap here.
On the Atlanta side, Charlotte is basically a mediocre defense that’s mediocre against every position. No one is at the top. No one is at the bottom. So, in that case, I would expect this to be a game carried by the normal cast of characters, meaning, if you feel the need to run Kemba back with anyone, I would start primarily with Trae (6800), who may not have the ceiling of Collins (7700), but can still get you 50 DKP tonight, and will save you 900. Collins would be my easy 2nd choice. He is a double-double machine, and Marvin Williams won’t be able to contend with him at the PF slot. My last play would be Prince (4900). If you didn’t notice, Prince is fully back. In a game where Minutes are King, Prince played 37 last game against a much better Raptors D, and put up 28.75 DKP. If he gets similar run today (and there’s no reason he shouldn’t), he could easily get past 30 here.
Raptors vs Knicks - TIP OFF: 730pm
Stats and Stuff
O/U - N/A
Raptors
Pace - 15th
Injuries - Kawhi QUESTIONABLE, Gasol QUESTIONABLE
Trade Deadline Changes - JoVal, Delon Wright, CJ Miles GONE, Marc Gasol ADDED
DvP Says: Above Average against every position.
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Kawhi (21st), Gasol (47th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Lowry (2nd - PG), Green (1st - SG), Siakam (10th - PF), Gasol (8th - C)
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: Ibaka (3rd Worst - C)
Knicks
Pace - 23rd
Injuries - Mudiay, Frank N OUT
Trade Deadline Changes - Kanter, Matthews, Porzingis, Lee, Burke, Hardaway GONE, Jordan, DSJ ADDED
DvP Says: Irrelevant Stuff, Given the Trades
Players in the top 50 in Usage: DSJ (27th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Vonleh (7th - PF), Jordan (3rd - C)
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: Knox (WORST - SF)
BREAKDOWN
Obviously everything on the Raptors side depends on the availability of Kawhi and Gasol. Kawhi (9300) is dealing with an injured knee and, honestly, given how outclassed the Knicks are here, I see no reason to push him back earlier than they have to. Gasol (7200) will be with the Raptors in NY. If they can complete his physical and get everything dotted and crossed, Gasol should be available. So I will analyze this assuming Kawhi is out and Gasol is in.
If Kawhi is in, he is one of the better plays on the slate and I would have a hard time going to anyone else on this Raptors squad (Gasol included). If Gasol plays, I assume he automatically gets into the starting lineup and gets 30 minutes. Even though he’s matched up against Jordan (5500), he is still a fantastic player and could do what Drummond just did to this team.
The real question is: what do they do with SIakam (6400) and Ibaka (6300). My guess is that these 3 guys split all the possible minutes at PF/C with Siakam and Gasol getting the start and Ibaka coming in in the first rotation for whoever. If Gasol gets 30 minutes (which is probably low), it means there are 66 minutes that need to be split between Siakam and Ibaka. The point here is there are plenty of minutes to go around as long as they don’t add a Bouchet for more than 5 minutes a game.
With Kawhi out, we also need to get as close to locking in both Lowry (7300) and FVV (4900) as we can. While the Knicks are much slower than the Hawks (and thus will create less possessions and, thus, scoring opportunities for the Raptors), these two have shown that they can work next to each other and still both exceed value. I would expect the same tonight, and would favor FVV due to price (but may have to swing back to Lowry due to ownership). Either way, without Delon Wright, I expect both to push 30-35 minutes, even if this game starts to pull away in the 4th.
On the Knicks side, I want to play DSJ (5900) every day until he gets to 7500 or wherever his salary is going to wind up. He is, again, one of the most underpriced players on this slate. I would suggest getting all over him.
While people might think we normally need to attack Toronto with Centers, the presence of Gasol puts a little bit of a kibosh on that one. That being said, Jordan is cheap enough he could get you value and thensome regardless.
The one thing I will bring to your attention is Vonleh (4800) started but only played 3 minutes. I haven’t seen anything yet about an injury, but I would assume that is the case and we need to monitor his status for tonight. If he is out, I will be all over Hezonja (4000) who will get more than 30 minutes again.
Clippers vs Celtics - TIP OFF: 800pm
Stats and Stuff
O/U - 226, BOS -11.5
Clippers
Pace - 13th
Injuries - Temple QUESTIONABLE, Chandler Q, Green Q, Chandler OUT
Trade Deadline Changes - Harris, Boban, Scott, Bradley, Gortat, Teodosic GONE, Shamet, Wilson Chandler, JaMychal Green, Zubac ADDED
DvP Says: WORST IN NBA against C AND PF
Players in the top 50 in Usage: LouWill (6th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: NONE
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: LouWill (3rd Worst - SG)
Celtics
Pace - 18th
Injuries - Theis DOUBTFUL, Baynes OUT
Trade Deadline Changes - NONE
DvP Says: Weakest Against SF
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Kyrie (13th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Smart (1st - PG), Kyrie (6th - PG)
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: NONE
BREAKDOWN
The Clippers were worst in the NBA against PF and C before the trade deadline and I’m pretty sure they made themselves worse. This game may have a nice total, but we should definitely be aware that this is one of the best teams in the East against one of the weakest teams in the West. With this game in Boston as it is, I would be surprised if Boston doesn’t win by more than the 11.5 Vegas thinks. If that is the case, my favorite play in blowouts in the NBA is Jaylen Brown (4600). Dude gets serious back up run, and leads the blow out run unit. He basically just handles the ball and takes whatever shots he wants against 3rd stringers. It’s awesome, and you should also take advantage of this.
With Theis and Baynes out tonight, Horford (6600) should also be locked into some safe minutes. If he doesn’t get 40 DKP in 26 minutes I would be surprised here. If you think he gets more than that, you should lock him in. Backing up Horford will be Morris (5200) and Williams (3100). Morris I think is a great play, but I worry that he will only get the backup minutes. When this blows out, they bench him as well. That is a lot to ask for someone who may only get 16 minutes. Williams is a risky punt but, again, he should get some minutes tonight no matter what at nearly minimum price, and, if this blows out, he could get 20+ and easily crush value here.
Someone who would probably wind up as my 2nd favorite play is Tatum (6000) who will get PF run today while Morris covers the backup C minutes. I will be all over Tatum in that case. He should be able to push 30 minutes no matter what and, somehow, if these Clippers keep it close, he could get you 36+ minutes today and crush that salary.
Kyrie (9500) will get you 70 DKP if this stays close and may still get you 50 DKP if it doesn’t. I don’t know if I’ll pay up for the limitations on his ceiling I see due to the blowout, but, if I do a MME again like today, I will certainly make sure I see Kyrie in there somewhere. My main lineup, though, will probably spend the salary elsewhere.
On the Clippers side, everything is drastically different. They played a couple days ago, on the day of the deadline, and only had like 9 people available. Luckily for them, all of the new trades should be on their roster today. Unfortunately for them, a bunch of them are already injured and may not be able to play. Zubac (3500) is here, though, and healthy. Given how shitty the Clippers are at C, they make lock him into 30+ minutes a game immediately. I would also expect him to get a bunch of run, regardless of how this game ends up. If they let Gallo (5900) get back to 35 minutes today, he will be a great play. Otherwise he will get the Cousins treatment. The other Clipper I would take a chance on today is LouWill (7100) if you are playing Kyrie (or this this game doesn’t blow out, or you don’t care). If this stays close, it will most likely be on Lou’s back. He will be playing primarily against the 2nd unit, so he can avoid the elite defenders and, honestly, he would shoot 30 times a game regardless. He’s a bit risky at that price, in this matchup, but no one can deny the GPP upside if you want to get a stack going here.
Wizards vs Bulls - TIP OFF: 8pm
Stats and Stuff
O/U - N/A
Wizards
Pace - 8th
Injuries - Wall, Howard OUT
Trade Deadline Changes - Otto Porter, Markieff GONE, Jabari, Portis, Wes Johnson ADDED
DvP Says: Weakest against PF and C, also subpad against SF/SG
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Beal (11th), Portis (26th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Satoransky (9th - SG)
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: Beal (4th Worst - SG), Jabari (2nd Worst - PF), Portis (3rd Worst - PF)
Bulls
Pace - 20th
Injuries - Nothing new
Trade Deadline Changes - Jabari, Portis GONE, Otto Porter ADDED
DvP Says: 2nd Worst in the NBA against SG, also subpar against PG
Players in the top 50 in Usage: LaVine (18th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: NONE
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: LaVine (5th Worst - PG)
BREAKDOWN
The question of the slate will be found here, in this game: How much ownership will be too much for you to get off Portis (5400) today. He is going back to Chicago. He is an incredibly emotional player. He is going to give everything here, and I can’t imagine this not being the first lock I make today. I, honestly, would consider him the MSC pick of the day today. Even though Bryant got the start yesterday, he only got 18 minutes while Portis got 27. Portis responded by getting 30p/6r/2a/1s and 43.5 DKP. I would be surprised if he doesn’t charge past that today.
By the same token, the Bulls didn’t exact do right by Jabari (4800) either, and while he also didn’t start, he still managed 23 minutes, putting up 7p/11r/9a/3s/1b and 42.75DKP. He seriously almost had a 3x2 and he only got 23 minutes.
Beal (9000) is in another great spot, and I’m pretty sure he’s going to overlooked. While everyone looks to Portis and, to a lesser extent, Jabari, Beal is the one playing against both the Bulls weakest position and weakest defender in LaVine. While Portis can win you some money today, ignoring Beal could just as easily lose it for you. That being said, All Aboard the Narrative Express. Choo Choo, Ladies and Gentlemen.
On the other side, it is going to go exactly the way last night went. The Wizards are incredibly bad against PF/C, which means Markkanen (7500) is my favorite play on this team, and probably the 2nd person I lock in tonight. Even with RoLo in, he is getting some Center minutes, and I would be more surprised if he doesn’t push a 30x20 again tonight than if he does.
Similarly, LaVine (6600) will be matched up against another weakness in the Wizards D, SGs/Wing players. Beal is a terrible defender. Ariza is a terrible defender. Sato is good, but he will have to deal with Dunn (6500) (who is a good cash play again). This means LaVine will once again have the chance to continue to tag team all the production with Lauri.
Porter (5600) could also pay off his price here, and was the person who came from Washington in the trade. If you have all 3 of these guys in your lineup, stacked with a couple Wizards, I would think it a great play. This game is going to have a TON of points and the opposite of a TON of defense. Like other great games, the production here will be consolidated among a few key people and we should definitely favor them as much as we can tonight.
Pelicans vs Grizzlies - TIP OFF: 800pm
Stats and Stuff
O/U - N/A
Pelicans
Pace - 5th
Injuries - Payton QUESTIONABLE, Moore QUESTIONABLE, Brow OUT, Okafor QUESTIONABLE
Trade Deadline Changes - Wes Johnson, Mirotic GONE, Jason Smith, Stan Johnson ADDED
DvP Says: NBA WORST against SF, 2nd Worst against PF, Also Subpar against C
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Brow (21st), Julius (33rd), Jrue (41st)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Brow (2nd - PF)
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: Julius Randle (WORST - C)
Grizzlies
Pace - 30th
Injuries - Anderson OUT, Watanabe PROBABLE, JoVal QUESTIONABLE, Noah DOUBTFUL
Trade Deadline Changes - Gasol, Mack, Temple, Green GONE, JoVal, Wright, Miles, Dorsey, Bradley ADDED
DvP Says: Irrelevant Stuff given the changes here.
Players in the top 50 in Usage: JJJ (48th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: JJJ (6th - PF)
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: NONE
BREAKDOWN
This game is going to be a clusterfuck of epic proportions. What we know is that Brow is definitely going to be out. They said they won’t play him on both ends of a back-to-back for the rest of the season. We also know that Elf, Moore, and Okafor were unable to play yesterday are should be considered, at best, questionable today. Unfortunately, as is the case with back-to-backs, there should be no shootaround tomorrow morning, meaning we may not find out about any official statuses until a couple hours before tip off, and this game is an hour after lock.
If Okafor (6500) plays, he would go right back to the heavy minutes he was playing before the trade deadline. His price is concerning, but I wouldn’t have any problem with him getting 40 DKP here. Randle (8100) dramatically underperformed last night, partly due to foul trouble, and will be asked to carry a lion’s share of the work on the front court tonight. I would expect him to push 50 DKP tonight, and I would also expect his ownership to be far too low, just as it was tonight (especially since they will probably play him off the bench again).
Before the trade deadline, the best place to attack the Grizzlies was at the guard spots, meaning I would have Jrue (8600)as one of my favorite plays on the day. I know the Grizzlies are slow, and defensive, and a shell of their former team, but, honestly, so are the Pelicans. I would be more surprised if this game doesn’t stay close, and most of that will HAVE to do with Jrue. His price has fallen due to Brow coming back, but it didn’t go back up due to Brow being out. I will be jumping all over that.
Everyone else here depends on the injured people. If Elf is out, I wouldn’t mind taking a chance on either F Jax (4100) or Frazier (4000). I think Frazier is viewed as more of a distributor and Jax as more of a scorer, so, with Brow out, they might need more of the Jax type guard tonight. If Elf is in, he will be limited and I will pass on all of them. Same goes for Moore. If he is in, no thanks to all of those guys. If he misses, I may have to take a serious look at Kenrich Williams (4700) who I had absolutely no interest yesterday, and wound up getting 37 minutes, and 19p/6r/2a/1b to exceed his value.
On the Grizzlies side, I will continue to focus my interest on a couple of people. First, Conley (8200) has been on fire lately. He saw his price fall 200 due to the Grizzlies getting blown out by the Thunder. I expect this game to stay considerably closer, and Conley to get back to pushing 50 DKP like he had been. Now, given the lack of other options on this team, his usage should spike even more, giving us more to like at that price.
The 2nd couple dudes I am looking at, again, are JJJ (6600) and Rabb (5800). When the news broke that Noah would only be available in case of an emergency, I locked both of these guys into my lineup a couple days ago and I may have to do that again. Noah is doubtful, and shouldn’t play. The Grizzlies have JoVal (5100) now. He hasn’t played in weeks and was just coming back from his injury the day he was traded. If he plays today (and that isn’t assured), I would expect him to be severely limited. This would mean, once again, the Grizzlies would have ZERO other bigs besides JJJ and Rabb. They will both get 35 minutes, and both crush this value today. The Pelicans won’t have a good defender to stop them with Brow out. And I expect them to both continuing to go nuts. Be careful of ownership again, but these two are both chalk I would eat.
The last person I will consider is the same dude I been touting since, literally, no one else in the industry was calling for you to play him and he put up 25 DKP at 3000 and 0.6% ownership -- Bruno (3700). In their last game, I talked about how they would have no chance but to give Bruno serious minutes. He wound up getting 30 and getting 23.25 DKP. That was against the Thunder who are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Today he is going against a depleted Pelicans team that is the Worst in the NBA against SFs. His price is slowly climbing, but it’s just not high enough yet for his role on this team.
Washburn (3200) played 37 minutes last game and only got 12 DKP. I would expect similar return today, but you never know. Minutes are King after all, and if you want to take a bet on those minutes, I wouldn’t mock you afterwards if it doesn’t work.
I hate playing Holiday (5200), but I have to admit he is in a phenomenal spot tonight and the only thing that would keep me away from having to seriously consider him is his ownership. I am expecting (and hoping) him to be the chalk here, so I can leave him be.
Thunder vs Rockets - TIP OFF: 830pm
Stats and Stuff
O/U - 235, HOU -2
Thunder
Pace - 2nd
Injuries - Nothing that matters
Trade Deadline Changes - NONE
DvP Says: Subpar against PF, SG, and C
Players in the top 50 in Usage: PG13 (15th), Russ (17th), Schroder (46th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: PG13 (1st - SF), Grant (4th - SF)
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: NONE
Rockets
Pace - 13th
Injuries - Capela OUT
Trade Deadline Changes - Knight, Chriss GONE, Shumpert ADDED
DvP Says: Weakest against Center and SG
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Harden (1st)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: CP3 (8th - PG), Tucker (5th - SF)
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: Gordon (2nd Worst - SG)
BREAKDOWN
As much as I love a few other games, if you want to talk about a game with an awesome total, between two fast teams with consolidated usage, this game is for you. There are very few things I like better than Rockets/Thunder matchup, and this one will not disappoint. The first thing I want to mention is someone on the Thunder passed Russ in Usage. I never thought I would see a day that Russ wasn’t 1st or 2nd overall in the NBA, much less 2nd on his own team. Don’t get me wrong, Russ (11200) is still a good play here (and his 3x2 streak should reach 9 games), but I will have trouble paying this much in a matchup against the good defense of CP3 when I can save some money and get someone with a similar projection, and is actually the usage leader here.
PG13 (10000) has been on fire lately, and the usage lead is completely justified. They should continue to feed him the ball and there is no one they can put on him that will be able to contain him. With the discount you get on him, I expect him to be incredibly popular, but I think he is underpriced enough I wouldn’t mind eating some of that chalk. I expect both of these guys to get in the 60s today, so neither is a bad play, but ownership may not be enough to push me off 1200. You can do a LOT with 1200.
While it’s not common, I also think it would be insane for the Thunder not to primarily attack the Rockets through their weakest link which is now Faried (6900). He is not nearly big or physical enough to handle Adams (6100) and this should be one of those games Adams gets more shots than usual, and puts up a good 40 DKP.
On the Houston side, it’s always a risky proposition to not play Harden (12200) given his ceiling and his usage, but I am still going to have a hard time going there with CP3 in the lineup. The last game, Harden didn’t get his full run due to a blowout, and I’m sure people will use that to justify playing him today anyway. But he still got 32 minutes. He still put up 26 shots. The reason he put up so few points is due to two factors: First, he only got 1 assist. With CP3 back, he is not going to get you close to 10 assists a game anymore. And if he gets 7 less assists a game, that is 10.5 DKP. And that’s not considering the bonus he gets for the 2x2 and 3x2. Second, he only got two foul shots. While I can’t ever expect that to happen again (especially against a Thunder team in the bottom third of the league in allowing fouls), it just shows how temperamental those big scores are, and how quickly they can go from great nights to not even reaching value. 12200 is a ton, and I just find it hard for him to get what you need at that price tonight, not with so many other great, great options out there that could realistically match his DKP tonight at 4000 less.
CP3 (7000) is still priced as if he has a minutes limit, which he doesn’t. He’s been over 30 minutes and pushing 40 DKP lately. That means he price should be closer to 8000 every game. This is another discrepancy to take advantage of.
Similarly, the Rockets are going to continue to need Faried (6900) to play as minutes as he can handle. He seems to get you 30-40 DKP a night and a double-double. I would expect 30 DKP to be close to his floor here, but his ceiling to push you to 50. At that price I don’t know how you can’t consider him in your player pool before you whittle it down.
I am curious to see how the Rockets use Shumpert (3700). I expect him to focus mainly on D, but he is still someone that doesn’t mind shooting, and has shown the ability to post random games in the 30s in DKP. He wouldn’t be a bad punt shot at all tonight.
It would also be worth pointing out this is exactly the type of game Jerami Grant (5100) gets extra work and pushes toward the 40 DKP range of his spectrum.
Magic vs Bucks - TIP OFF: 900pm
Stats and Stuff
O/U - N/A
Magic
Pace - 22nd
Injuries - Bamba OUT
Trade Deadline Changes - Jon Simmons GONE, Fultz ADDED
DvP Says: Weakest against PG
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Vuc (19th), Ross (43rd)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Vuc (6th - C)
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM:
Bucks
Pace - 3rd
Injuries - Middleton PROBABLE, Donte OUT, Mirotic QUESTIONABLE
Trade Deadline Changes - Thon Maker, Jason Smith GONE, Mirotic ADDED
DvP Says: Above Average against every position
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Giannis (5th), Bledsoe (38th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Bledsoe (4th - PG) Giannis (3rd - PF), BroLo (7th - C)
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: NONE
BREAKDOWN
I am about to hit the character limit, so I will make this brief. This game has no O/U or spread yet, but I expect MIL to win it easily, and the spread should be something along the lines of MIL -8. We have to wait and see about Vegas, though. If you are going to attack MIL it is going to be through the PF spot, meaning the player on the Magic I will consider the most is Gordon (6700). He is someone with 50 DKP upside. While Vuc is busy getting run around by BroLo, Gordon will be able to take the most advantage of the shots and rebounds that remain. Ross (5000) has put up more than 40 DKP in 3 of his last 4 games. He should be able to do that here again, especially if he takes another 23 shots tonight. In that regard, Isaac (5000) is also underpriced for this matchup and his expected production.
On the Bucks side, with Middleton back, we can count on Giannis (11400) to be the be all/end all, and the rest of the usage to be split down too much among the rest of the guys to give them much consideration. I wouldn’t mind Brogdon (5600) given his price and guaranteed minutes, but everyone else I would be too hesitant to play.
Alright folks. It’s 3am. I started putting everything together at 10pm and I am in so much pain I am about to lose it. But I got everything done and now I can re-read this 3 times and then post it and cross post it and then eat dinner and then maybe get some sleep before I see the sun. Best of luck tonight, everyone! My wife and son are going to visit my brother-in-law to make sure he’s doing ok, so I should be around to do a good chalk/bad chalk. So I will see you all then!