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Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. I will go over tonight’s slate as someone that plays on Draftkings. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! Let’s get started with the Review!
The Daily Slates:
In order to make this quicker, I am going to skip the Review today and just get into it. It’s 3 different slates and I have a ton of MLB work to do still. So let’s get going.
Clippers vs Knicks SHOWDOWN
O/U 222, LAC -10
Pace: LAC 4th, NYK 20th
DSJ OUT, Vonleh OUT, Trier OUT
LAC - 233.4 DKPPG (10th most, -6 from pace), 2nd worst in NBA against C, also terrible against PG and SG
NYK - 231.3 DKPPG (14th most, +6 from pace), Weakest against PF. Also weak against SG and SF.
Top 50 in Usage: LouWill (5), Mudiay (47)
Top 10 in DRPM: PatBev (3rd-PG), Zubac (8th-C)
Bottom 5 in DRPM: LouWill (2nd Worst SG), Knox (Worst SF)
Early Slate
A pretty awful 3 game slate. We still have some stuff we can attack. Let’s take a look.
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Nuggets - A matchup against the Pacers SUCKS. They are the 2nd slowest team in the NBA and focus on defense. So where can we attack? First, Jokic (9900) is way, way too cheap. The thing about him is, if he faces an incredible defender, aka Myles Turner, he just passes the ball off and let’s the rest of the team go nuts which increases the chance he gets a triple-double. He should never be under 10k and, the fact this game has a spread of DEN -1 means we should expect everyone to get full minutes. And Jokic getting full minutes at 9900, with the Nuggets holding on to the first seed in the West, we should expect him to go well and beyond that price.
Second, the Pacers now have 2 weak links, defensively speaking - Wes Matthews and Bojan. That means that I would expect Harris (4700) and Barton (5700) to be the best bets to exceed value among the non-Jokic Nuggets. With Thad Young a solid defender and Collison/CoJo/Tyreke one of the best PG-defense tandems in the NBA (meaning Murray will be in a terrible spot regardless of if Collison is in or not), I wouldn’t take anyone else except for the backups Plumlee (4800)and Monte (4100).
Myles Turner - While the Nuggets are holding on to the top spot, it looks like the Pacers and the Celtics will probably face each other as the 4 and 5 seeds. I still think they are going to try as hard as they can, though, since they are only 3 games out of 3rd. They are going to go all out to face the Pistons or Nets instead of the Celtics. That means that, since this game should stay close, Myles (5900) is one of the most laughably underpriced plays on the slate. His price keeps coming down due to coming back from injury and blow outs. He is a threat to get 35 minutes and if gets more than 1 PPM, which we can expect, he is already at 6x. That’s fucking wonderful.
If Collison plays, I don’t really know if I have any interest in any of the PGs here. If he misses, I would take another chance on Tyreke (4300) since, apparently, they are going to actually let him get 30 minutes without Collison now. I am still suspect, but, given their options, I think it’s a great play. Honestly, I think if Collison plays, Tyreke may get 30 minutes anyway and would see considerably less ownership making him a fantastic play.
Situations to monitor:
Giannis QUESTIONABLE - So, quick note: This game won’t stay close. It’s in MIL. I don’t care if Giannis plays or not. There is no O/U or spread yet, but if Giannis plays the Bucks may be 18 or 19 point favorites. If Giannis doesn’t, it will still probably be 13 or 14. That being said, if he plays I will only have interest in the cheap Bucks who would get some blow out run. Namely, Ilyasova (4100), PatCon (4400) and, to a smaller degree, DJ Wilson (3900).
If Giannis misses, you have to take Bledsoe (6800) as the play of the slate. Even if this game blows out, he will get a ton of DKP against Collin Sexton or Clarkson. Middleton (7700) would see the D of Cedi, who is awful as well. He’s more expensive and in a worse spot, but he should be less owned cause of it. No reason you can’t stack both. You can also take the above mentioned cheap plays as locks.
This makes a big deal for the Cavs too. If Giannis plays there is much less of a chance this stays close. Like with the Bucks, I would only want the backups who get the blowout run. That would be Nance (5400) and **Clarkson (5300) primarily, though I understand not wanting to pay that much. Knight (3900) is cheap enough, and can put up enough 3s, that you have to consider him on a 3 gamer. Nwaba (3400) is cheap enough as well, though he doesn’t put up any 3s.
If Giannis misses, you can absolutely take a chance on Love (7300), who would get a sweet matchup against Ilyasova, and could exploit the huge weakness the Bucks have against 3 point shooting.
Zeller QUESTIONABLE, Batum QUESTIONABLE, MKG QUESTIONABLE, Lowry QUESTIONABLE - On the Hornets side, they are on the 2nd day of a b2b, so I honestly don’t think we will know the status of these guys before lock, certainly if they are announced as GTDs. None of them were able to play yesterday, for what it’s worth. If Zeller misses, he makes Walker a worse play and the Raptors Centers better plays. If Batum misses, it makes Lamb (6300) a FANTASTIC play. It would also make Bridges (3800) and Bacon (3400) 2 punts worth considering. If Zeller plays, I imagine he would be limited, but I would be a lot bigger on Kemba (8400). If Batum (4900) plays, I would consider playing him at that price, but it never feels good to play Batum. Ever.
On the Raptors side, considering how bad the Hornets have been lately, and the fact that Nurse said Lowry would probably return later in the week, I would expect Lowry to sit. If that’s the case, you can lock in FVV (5600) and Siakam (7500). Kawhi (9200) is a great cash game play, but I just can’t get there in GPP, even though I imagine he will be popular.
If Zeller misses, it’s worth taking a chance on either Gasol (5600) or Ibaka (5000). Whoever starts. I imagine it would be Ibaka.
Main Slate
A 4 game slate with some really awesome plays. Including a real late night hammer I am going to be all over.
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Rockets - One of the best matchups you can have, if not the best, is the Pelicans. They are the fastest team that gives up the most DKPPG. They are worst or 2nd worst against C, PF, SF AND SG. So whoever wants to control usage will face no barriers. Meaning James Harden (11500) is the play of the day, assuming you think this game stays close, which is a HUGE stretch. Also it assumes you don’t mind eating overwhelming chalk. You can also take CP3 (7000) who should get some extra steals and whatnot against the Elf. Capela (7400) has as good a matchup as possible, and would be a great pivot on the extremely popular Harden and Paul. Also, House (3900) is gonna play major minutes and shoot a ton against 0 D.
Pelicans - I don’t have a ton of interest here. The Rockets have been playing real slow, with really solid D lately. I think most of the Pels are going to be pretty trappy. Except a couple. First, Brow (7000). As much as I hate playing someone getting 22 minutes, it is a 4 game slate so we can’t be as choosy. He really likes to step up against the better opponents, so this is one of those games that he can get you 45-50 DKP in those 22m. I don’t love it, and it’s not safe. But I will go there.
I also think they are serious about limiting the minutes of Randle, and Payton is overpriced, so I would go to Diallo (4300)and Ian Clark (3600) who would get a bunch of backup minutes and blow out run. No one is going to be on Ian Clark.
Kings vs Lakers - Oh man, I may play 7 players from this game. Both of these teams are fast. Neither play D. It’s going to be amazing. There’s no O/U or spread due to LeBron being probable, but I would assume this comes in over 240 with the Kings slight favorites. If not a PICK EM. Oh man, I can’t wait. I will add one bit of caution - with the Lakers eliminated from the playoffs they may completely drop the minutes of the older guys. We may be witnessing the end of the runs of Rondo and McGee and the beginning of more Caruso and Wagner cause why the hell not?
The Lakers and Kings are 2 of the worst teams against PG, so I will take Fox (7700) and Rondo (6200) (or Caruso (4100)). In this amazingly quick game, whichever 2 of these you think gets the most run should be locks for at least a 2x2.
I also love Hield (7100) since they have no one on the Lakers to defend against him. Especially with Hart out.
The Kings are bad enough, LeBron (10100) could get a 3x2 in 28 minutes, but I imagine he will also be chalky and, like I said above, they might start being serious about limiting the veterans and seeing what the kids have to offer. This would mean Kuzma (6500) would be the big dog for most of this game and we should probably like him the most on this Lakers team. I hope we get some news about this, cause I will be concerned all day.
While I am worried about the minutes, if we get no word on any fundamental changes, how can you not take a run on McGee (5600) as well. After what he just did, and how bad the Kings defend Centers, you would be crazy not to.
Also, with McGee one of the worst defenders in the NBA, you have to take a serious chance on Bagley (6900). He is still too cheap for the role he’s been filling. Especially if Giles is forced to miss again.
Situations to monitor:
Spurs vs Celtics - Right now, for the Celtics, we can consider Horford AND Tatum AND Hayward AND Baynes AND Williams QUESTIONABLE. The status of all these people should be known before lock, since this game only kicks off 30 minutes after then, but we may not know until between 6 and 630, since I don’t expect the Celtics to have any sort of morning availability on the 2nd day of a b2b when that is a Sunday morning. So we have to plan this out well ahead of time and switch up when the news comes out .
First up, I want to start whoever starts at Center for the Celtics. Whoever starts at C/PF for the Spurs isn’t going to be good. How good they are going to be will be based on how many of the other options are out. If all 3 are out, we can expect Theis (3100) and Yabusele (3000) to get serious minutes. Otherwise, take whoever starts in a good matchup.
Hayward and Tatum missing would mean Morris (5300) and Jaylen (4300) would get some serious, serious minutes. I would also have to take a shot on them. If Both Hayward and Tatum play, I don’t want to play anyone.
As much as I LOVE the D of Derrick White, I have to take a run on Kyrie (8800) at that price. He hasn’t gone under 52.75 DKP in his last 5 starts. I know he’s being priced down for the matchup, but that just means we can take him in GPPs because his ceiling doesn’t change (just the matchup specific ceiling).
On the Spurs side, if all the Centers miss, you have to take a serious run on Poeltl (4300) and LMA (7500) who would be seeing all of those terrible PF/Cs I mentioned earlier. If anyone but Horford starts, honestly, I will still have a ton of interest here (assuming Poeltl starts). If Poeltl doesn’t start and Gay (5400) starts at PF (which is very likely), I would have a ton of interest in both Gay and LMA for the same reason.
Pistons vs Warriors - There’s no injury report for the Warriors or Pistons since they played yesterday. Hopefully they have some kind of availability in the morning, because if they don’t, with a time 90 minutes after lock, we may not know who is playing until after the first game tips off, especially for the Warriors. Kerr talked about resting people this week and he followed through with Curry yesterday. I expect someone else, if not more than one person, to rest today. We have to see who it is before we can even determine who to play in this game. For example, if Cousins misses, we want to go all in on Curry and Drummond. If Dray misses, we want to go all in on Durant and Blake (assuming Blake plays). If Durant misses, we go all in on Curry and Cousins. Either way, we are going to have to be on our toes. I will try to give my thoughts on twitter. And I will certainly be on the Flick group talking about it.
That is it for a big Sunday. I will eat some dinner now and get some sleep. Best of luck everyone! Have a wonderful Sunday. Don’t forget to tell the people you love how important they are to you. Sunday is always a good day to make sure you do that.