Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. I also have a Venmo and Patreon for those that wanna help. Operation: Get Me A Laptop. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!
The Daily Slate:
When there’s a 6 game slate the next day, it’s almost midnight, and 4 of the 6 games haven’t gotten a line or spread posted yet, you know you are probably going to be in for a long, long day. Especially when there’s only one superstar, Klay Thompson, listed as either questionable or doubtful. Tomorrow is going to be nuts. So, let’s check that out now before everything changes dramatically.
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Darren Collison - You know who’s really, really bad at defending guards, specifically PGs and SGs? The Bulls. You know who is still drastically underpriced for his production and minutes since Oladipo went down? Darren Collison (5500). Fresh off a 42.75 DKP performance against a much slower and better defensive team than the Bulls, Collison should be able to exceed 1 PPM and get you 30+ minutes here and you can do that math.
Cory Joseph (3800) is still getting 22 or so minutes, even with Tyreke back so, in this matchup, he has to be considered a great punt today.Bojan (5600) and Wes (4100) are also grossly underpriced for this matchup. Even if this game blows out, and it sports a healthy spread of IND -8 right now, none of these guys are priced high enough that they will kill you today. I would also take a good chunk of Kyle O’Quinn (3600), who will get the backup run and any blow out run with Sabonis out, and saw his price come down
LaVine and/or Otto - So, Bojan and Wes Matthews are very poor defenders. Bojan moreso, but both of these guys can be attacked pretty easily, and both will see more than 30 minutes on the court. With Lauri (8200) the highest priced player on the team, facing the stout defenses of Thad Young and Myles Turner, and with Dunn (5400) facing the best PG defense in the NBA by miles, I will definitely look to LaVine (7600) and Otto (6200). People are going to avoid this game, and there’s no reason to. Just because it may not be the best, or it’s a slower paced game, means nothing if the usage and shooting is going to be condensed to a few people the entirety of the game, like it is on the Bulls, especially when 2 of the normal players will be essentially taken out of the mix.
Vuc - I mean, ok. Vuc (9200) is one of the best offensive Centers in the NBA. Embiid and Boban are already listed as OUT. Bolden is Questionable with a sinus infection. Amir Johnson is Questionable with a sore back. Neither were able to practice yesterday. While it would be insane for both of them to miss tomorrow, it is actually possible. With the Sixers unwilling to put Patton in a game, I would assume that the 5 is manned tomorrow by Mike Scott for a majority of the game, with Tobias or Ben Simmons filling in when needed. Either way, NONE OF THOSE PEOPLE will be able to stop Vuc. It is insane to think about how many rebounds Vuc will be able to get tomorrow. My god. Just play him. Especially if Bolden and Amir are out. This is a huge pace up spot, as well. It’s just too perfect a spot for Vuc and, for some reason, I bet he doesn’t even get 15% owned tomorrow.
Sixers Injuries - So, as I just discussed, Embiid is OUT, Boban is OUT, Korkmaz is OUT, Bolden is QUESTIONABLE, and Amir is QUESTIONABLE (and neither were able to practice on Monday). If they all miss, that would the Sixers with 9 healthy bodies, including Justin
Patton (3000) who has not seen the floor this year, as far as I can see. So that, essentially, would leave 8. One of those 8 is James Ennis (3000), so that also doesn’t really count, does it. That leaves 7. Seven. For all of the production in this game. Center would have to be manned by Mike Scott (4000) for 30+ minutes, with Ben Simmons (8400) and Tobias Harris (7400) filling in the gaps. Harris will also man almost all the PF, with Ben Simmons and Butler filling in here as well. PG will be Ben Simmons for most of the game, with TJ McConnell (3100) likely to get 20 minutes and smash that price. SG and SF will be manned for 35-40 minutes by Redick (4800) and Butler (7100) with Jon Simmons (3000) getting 20 or so minutes of backup between the 2. And that’s it. I know Orlando is slow. I know their D has been fantastic. I know that they give up the fewest DKPPG per game. But when you have 7 people playing, at those prices, you just play Vuc from the other side, and run him back with a few people here.
James Harden - You know what people don’t like to do? Play people against the Raptors. Especially guards. Lowry and Green are both fantastic defenders. But it doesn’t matter how good a defender you are when James Harden (11100) comes to town. You know who has some good defenders? Miami. He just put 95 DKP on them. You know who else has good defenders? Boston. He just put up 63.75 DKP on them last game. Listen, this is one of those plays that I will let be dictated by ownership. There is no one in their right might that will argue not to play Harden any given day, especially when he’s not 12k. If he looks like he’s gonna be popular, I will get off him. But PG13 is out, and I expect most people to be elsewhere today. If Harden IS popular, I will pivot down to CP3 (7700) who is also underpriced for his ceiling and how much he’ll have to do in this matchup.
Kawhi - The Rockets are weakest against SF. They have Eric Gordon starting there, who is one of the worst defensive SFs in the NBA, by far. Kawhi (8900) is underpriced due to his price falling due to them resting the shit out of him. But, in a game with a playoff environment, where both teams are still vying for playoff seeding, I expect both teams to give it their all. Which means the aforementioned Harden/Paul, as well as Kawhi here. Don’t overthink this one - There is no one on the Rockets that will be able stop him at his position. He doesn’t have the ceiling I normally look for in GPPs, since he normally maxes out around 50-55DKP, but, as his price keeps falling, that 55 DKP will look more and more enticing. Especially in a game like this. I will also add- Clint Capela is one of the worst defensive Centers in the NBA, so I would be a big fan of a Gasol (5700), should he prove to be unpopular. If he is chalk, his limited minutes make him too much of a risk.
Nurkic OR Kanter - You know who has been absolutely dogshit awful against Centers since trading away Marc Gasol? If you said anyone other than the Grizzlies, you really need to brush up on who went where at the trade deadline. I mean, that was one of the major moves. Anyway, the Grizzlies have been just terrible against Centers lately, meaning that, even with the split minutes, I would expect both Nurkic (7000) and Kanter (4500) to be able to reach value here. Right now, for some reason I don’t know, Vegas doesn’t have a line or spread here, even though no one of much significance is questionable. I would expect that this game is expected to blow out. If not, I would take Nurkic. If you think this game blows out, I would take Kanter. Either way, one, if not both, of these guys are gonna eat. It’s just a question of picking the one of them that’s gonna see the maximum possible minutes.
Avery Bradley - I am going to be serious here- Why the sweet hell are you not playing Avery Bradley (4400) every single game at this point? The writing is on the wall. He’s the big dog now. He’s gonna keep getting you 30-40+ DKP. He will be over 6k before too long. Get him in. Now. With Rabb questionable, I would take a chance on Bruno (3700)as well, but it’s a chance. Delon (4500) is a little riskier with Conley back, but I still think he’s slightly too cheap for what he’s gonna be asked to do, especially if the Blazers blow this game out. I will also add, while I try to avoid picking Centers that line up against Nurkic, JoVal (6700) should be 8000 already. That is a huge pricing error we should look to take advantage of, especially if Rabb is out. Ditto for Noah (4700), who would get extra run if this game blows out, and potentially if Rabb is out.
Westbrook and Schroder - PG13 has already been ruled out for this game. That means one thing and one thing only - target Russ (11300) and Schroder (5500) who may not be in your final lineup, but should be in your final cut of your player pool before selecting exactly who you want. People are starting to get the idea that Russ is bad without PG13 without paying attention to the fact that the first game was against Derrick White, who is a fantastic defender. On top of that, he was 1 rebound and 2 assists from a 3x2, which would have made his day a little more acceptable (though he still would have underperformed). Last game was against the slowest team in the NBA, the Molasses Grizzlies. This game will be against a slow MIN team, but one who is 11th in DKPPG allowed. They are bad, bad defenders, especially against guards (unless Tyus is starting). While people might be off Russ here, I will be all over him. If he can’t produce today, I might reconsider the idea that he needs PG13 to succeed. But other than that, I think it’s people overreacting to a small sample size of data. Schroder, on the other hand, should be locked in no matter what when PG13 is out. He becomes the 2nd option on this team, overall, and a TON of usage opens up with PG13 out (PG13 is, appropriately, 13th in the NBA in usage). Lastly, with Saric starting for MIN, you have to give serious consideration to Jerami Grant (5300). He doesn’t need to do much to pay this off, and, against Saric, without PG13 on the court, it’s crazy to think he won’t.
Wolves - The Wolves are in a fantastic pace up matchup against the fastest team in the NBA. OKC has been 2nd worst in the NBA recently against SGs, and they will be missing their best perimeter, or other, defender in PG13. While the matchup with Adams is never something you want to test, KAT (10600) is one of those matchup proof Centers who will just pass if off and get you the 3x2 if things get too hard. While other people worry too much about Adams, I will be taking a great chance against a Thunder team playing much worse defense lately. While Saric (3900) is going to draw the start, he is a huge defensive liability, so I expect Taj (4000) to get a majority of the run at PF, where he should be able to exceed value. He will also be less owned than Saric, since he’s coming off the bench and more expensive. Not that either will be all that owned. I also would take a chance on Wiggins (5700), as much as I loathe to play him when everyone is healthy. The Thunder have been so bad on the wing lately, and the absence of PG13 makes them beyond terrible. Wiggins isn’t gonna do much besides shoot but, given how little resistance he will face, this could be one of those days he gets hot and does it for you.
Kyrie - While this game doesn’t have an O/U or a spread yet, while we wait news of Klay’s status, it’s safe to say that this should be a high scoring, close game between two teams that, realistically, could meet again in the finals. I expect, much like with every Celtics game, Kyrie (8800) to control the lion’s share of usage. While he hasn’t had one of his 60 DKP games recently, like with Kawhi earlier, I expect Kyrie to kick it up another level, in GS, against future Knicks teammate Kevin Durant (lol). With Cousins and Dray manning the front court, you can also give serious consideration to Horford (6300) who should be able to push closer to the 35 minute range of his minutes.
Situations to monitor:
Klay QUESTIONABLE - Klay had to have an MRI on his knee so, considering the fact they basically have this whole thing wrapped up anyway, I would be surprised if they pushed him, even with the MRI coming back clean. If he plays, he will be matched up against Marcus Smart, so no thank you. Iguodala is also QUESTIONABLE with no specific injury designation. They just say he was “banged up” and rested in Monday’s practice. If that’s anything like my 14 year old cousin, Marlene, that means he’s probably pregnant and they’re just going to hide him for a few months until he has a new “sister.” She was also “banged up”. Banged up real good. If Iguodala plays, without limit, he would be a great play in this matchup. If not, we can expect more distribution duties to be placed on Curry (9000) and Dray (5600), who would become one of the the best plays of the day (if he isn’t already, if just Klay misses). Especially with Looney already listed as OUT. If Klay and Iggy are both out, we can play Dray, Curry, AND Durant (9100) in the same lineup, at those prices, and have all of them exceed value. McKinnie is in, which means you still shouldn’t play him. Or Damion Lee. Or Livingston. Or Cook. I’m not even gonna list their prices. With Looney out, Bell (3000) becomes an interesting punt again, as someone who should get 15-18 minutes or so, and, when you’re minimum priced, you take the potential that those minutes will provide.
Ok! I need to sleep! Best of luck everyone!!