Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!
Yesterday In Review:
***My Lineup-*** -
Name | Price | DKP | Value | Proj Own | Real Own | Diff
Lowry | 7100 | 46.5 | 6.5x | 15.4%| 46.7%| 31.3!!!!!!
Washburn | 3200 | 12 | 3.8x | 11.5%| 4.6%| 6.9
LeBron | 10400 | 72.5 | 7x | 10.1%| 13.7%| 3.6
Motley | 3200 | 17.75 | 5.5x | 6.6%| 9.4%| 2.8
KAT | 9900 | 49.25 | 5x | 21.1%| 19.7%| 1.4
Schroder | 4900 | 27.25 | 5.6x | 6%| 5.7%| 0.3
Rabb | 5100 | 33.25 | 6.5x | 43.3%| 50.2%| 6.9
JJJ | 6000 | 37.75 | 6.3x | 40.9%| 28.8%| 12.1
**Total** | 49800 | 296.25 | 5.949x| | |
***Best Possible Lineup-*** - [Using the free lineup rewind tool on fantasycruncher](https://www.fantasycruncher.com/lineup-rewind/draftkings/NBA/), I find the highest possible lineup that could have been played. Name | Price | DKP
Cory Joseph | 4400 | 35.25
Bojan | 5600 | 46.25
Wiggins | 5900 | 47.75
Tatum | 5800 | 46
Siakam | 6200 | 64
FVV | 4400 | 46.75
LeBron | 10400 | 72.5
CJ | 7000 | 55.75
**Total** | 49700 | 414.25
Analysis-
I apologize for this, but the pain I am in is pretty incredible. There’s a few things going on: First, I am still trying to recover from the funeral. I have explained in the past about my pain disability. Unfortunately, I need at least a few days of doing literally nothing to kind of reset myself back to normal. My wife, however, has just started a new job this week. She is now not just working in her Vet Clinic, but she is doing a significant amount of time at the emergency clinic. This means she will be working almost every afternoon, and I have a lot less time to not do anything. We have a babysitter, a nice older lady who lives a couple doors down, who watches my son once or twice a week in order to help me. However, they just found massive lump in her lung and she is having a procedure tomorrow to determine if it is cancerous. So, while I am in horrific pain right now, I am also having a hard time with my emotions so I wanted to make sure to try to get some writing done to take my mind off of it. While I know you are all thoughts and prayers’ed out, If you have any extra space in there, keep my neighbor in your thoughts. She is an incredible lady and this is another thing that shouldn’t happen. She is a non smoker who lost her father to lung cancer, and she is having a really hard time with it herself. Hopefully some positive energy will help, even if just a little.
Everything today was based on injuries and trades. I wish I had time to get into it, but the pain is creeping in too quickly for me to spend the time here that I could spend doing my analysis and research for tonight’s slate. (editor’s note- i made the right choice. I almost hit the Reddit post cap for characters)
The Daily Slate:
Given all the breaking news and trades and everything else that we need to consider from the last couple of days, I am going to format this differently today. This will be the first time this will be a specific game-by-game breakdown. This should help to discuss every game in greater depth, and how the roster changes may or may not affect the different games tonight, instead of just a pick or two I like.
Knicks vs Pistons - TIP OFF: 7pm (all tip off times are Eastern)
Stats and Stuff
O/U - 206, DET -8.5
Knicks
Pace - 18th (All Pace rankings are from the teams’ last 15 games)
Injuries - Mudiay, Frank N OUT
Trade Deadline Changes - Kanter, Matthews, Porzingis, Lee, Burke, Hardaway GONE, Jordan, DSJ ADDED
DvP Says: Worst in NBA against PF. Almost worst against SF. Below average against PG/C (All DvP results are the numbers over the last month)
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Mudiay (26th) (All Usage ranks are from the team’s last 15 games)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Vonleh (6th - PF)
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: NONE
Pistons
Pace - 30th (LAST)
Injuries - Ish Smith PROBABLE
Trade Deadline Changes - Bullock, Stan Johnson GONE. Myk, Thon Maker ADDED
DvP Says: Weakest against SG
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Blake (5th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: NONE
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: NONE
BREAKDOWN
This is probably the worst game on the slate, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find some good plays here. This gets even easier, to a point, because these two teams played each other a couple of days ago, so let’s see what we can glean from the box score: First, the game was in NY and Detroit still won 105-92. Griffin (8900) got 38 minutes and 29p/8a/6r which was good for 47.5DKP. I said then he should be 9500 or so, and I stand by that. He is underpriced here (if this game stays close). Drummond (8600), although in an incredibly tough matchup against Jordan (6000), wound up taking advantage of the fact Jordan fouled out in 24 minutes, putting up 17p/16r/5b/1s on his way to 50DKP. While I don’t think we can count on Jordan to foul out again, I think we can count on Drummond pushing 40 minutes and, since he gets more than 1 PPM, we should be able to predict he will pay this off and thensome. I think Jordan, if he manages to stay out of foul trouble, will be in an incredible spot as well. The Knicks are going to need his height if they want to stay competitive this game (lol) and he should push for 35 minutes here. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he gets you close to 50 DKP, but he is almost 3k less than Drummond.
DSJ (5800) was 5700 last game and he got 40 minutes, 25p/6a/5r and 39.25 DKP. Considering the Pistons are still fucking awful against PG, I would think DSJ should be able to push past 40 DKP if the Knicks can keep this close. Bullock and Stan Johnson got 36 and 26 minutes respectively and neither are Pistons anymore. Most of those minutes should fall to Kennard (3500), Galloway (3300), and the newly acquired Mykhailiuk (3000). I don’t expect Myk to get much run, and I am in wait and see mode with him, but Kennard and Galloway should be guaranteed minutes here and it doesn’t matter how close this game is.
If you noticed the pricing, Griffin and Drummond are in the high 8ks. The next closest Piston is R Jax (5600) followed by Kennard at 3500. This means there is going to be a LOT of production for cheap on this Pistons team, so make sure you are loading up. Jackson is a fine play, he got 19p/7a/2r/1s which was good for 34.5 DKP. Considering he also has an easier matchup against DSJ, I like him to get around that again tonight. One of the things that stands out here is Bullock took 14 shots, including 10 3s. Stan Johnson took 4 and 2, respectively. That is a lot of 3s that will be up for grabs which, again, is why I really like Kennard, Galloway, and Blake (who are now the 3 most prominent 3-point shooters on this team).
The Knicks lost Matthews who played 25 minutes last game and took 10 shots. Odds are he will be replaced with Dotson (3600) who is easily one of the best punts on the day today. People might tell you to play Mitch Robinson (4300) but his price has come up, and his production last game was a function of Jordan’s foul trouble. While he is the clear backup C, he is not going to get the same run, and we shouldn’t chase those points.
Lastly, Knox (5100) was 2nd in the Knicks in minutes and shots. With Matthews gone, he should take even MORE shots. He doesn’t hit many of them, but if he gets hot one game, he is going to drop 50 DKP given his usage. It may not be today, but keep Knox on your radar, folks.
Nuggets vs Sixers - TIP OFF: 7pm
Stats and Stuff
O/U - N/A
Nuggets
Pace - 26th
Injuries - Harris is OUT, Millsap is QUESTIONABLE
Trade Deadline Changes - NONE
DvP Says: Weakest against SG. Also below average against SF
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Jokic (8th), Murray (34th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Harris (10th - SG), Millsap (4th - PF), Jokic (10th - C)
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: NONE
Sixers
Pace - 5th
Injuries - Embiid is QUESTIONABLE, Shake is OUT, Jon Simmons QUESTIONABLE?
Trade Deadline Changes - Shamet, Chandler, Muscala, Fultz, Richardson GONE, Harris, Boban, Scott, Ennis, Jon Simmons ADDED
DvP Says: Weakest Against Centers. Above Average against everything else.
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Embiid (2nd)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Simmons (5th - PG), Butler (2nd - SG), Embiid (7th - C)
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: NONE
BREAKDOWN
This game doesn’t have an O/U or spread yet as we await the status of Embiid and Millsap. Embiid is sick, not injured, so as long as he is feeling better he should be able to play. And boy do I hope he plays cause this is a battle of the 2 best offensive Centers in the NBA . Embiid (10600) and Jokic (10400) are are both unguardable offensive machines that are still top 10 in DRPM. I think both of these guys should be priced at 11k every day, and I wouldn’t be surprised if both push 60 DKP. There are some high priced people I like better than both, but, depending on ownership, there is nothing wrong if you decide to go with either of these guys.
As far as the rest of the Sixers, I really don’t know how to feel. The addition of Tobias (6800) is surely going to spread production out amongst the other starters to a point that I am not comfortable spending the money on him, Ben Simmons (8400), or Butler (7300) until I see how everything shakes itself out. Simmons should be running the point, so he is much safer, and I have much less trepidation in playing him than the other two.
I am hoping Millsap is out, or limited, because I am going to want to attack Philly via PF, which means I would love to be able to play Plumlee (5400) here. I think we could expect another 40 DKP here, and I’m not sure if people will be willing to pay that much for him. If Millsap (4800) is without a minutes limit, he is 600 cheaper and I wouldn’t mind taking a risk on him. If Millsap is out, I would also have interest in punting with Lyles (3800) again. With Gary Harris already declared out, we can also look at Beasley (5400). He is also expensive but perfectly capable of getting 40 DKP, especially matched up against JJ Redick.
I will also say this- If Boban (3000) is active tomorrow and gets the backup C minutes for Embiid from this point out, you might need to play him every day he isn’t over 4k. 15-20 min for Boban is good for 30DKP sometimes. And if he gets 15-20 tonight, here, I am going to jump all over him. Luckily this is with the first tip offs so we should know really early what the Sixers plan is. The same goes for Jon Simmons (3000), should he be healthy and guaranteed the 15-20 backup minutes. I don’t expect him to have anywhere the production of a Boban, but he should easily pay off the 3k.
Cavs vs Wizards - TIP OFF: 7pm
Stats and Stuff
O/U - 220.5, WSH -10.5
Cavs
Pace - 25th
Injuries - Osman and Tristan OUT, Kevin Love QUESTIONABLE
Trade Deadline Changes - Alec Burks GONE, Chriss ADDED
DvP Says: Worst in the NBA against PF. Also terrible against PG/SG/SF.
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Clarkson (32nd), Sexton (45th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: LOL
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: Sexton (WORST - PG), Clarkson (3rd Worst- PG), Osman (2nd Worst- SF), Tristan (2nd Worst- C)
Wizards
Pace - 11th
Injuries - Wall, Howard OUT
Trade Deadline Changes - Otto Porter, Markieff GONE, Jabari, Portis, Wes Johnson ADDED
DvP Says: Weakest against PF and C
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Beal (12th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Satoransky (8th - SG)
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: NONE
BREAKDOWN
This Wizards, who have been projected as a blow out victim quite frequently recently, are now projected to blow out the Cavs. That should tell you just how bad this Cleveland team is. I, for one, think both these teams are awful, and play awful defense, meaning I think everyone here has some value today. We can’t be 100% sure of who the Wizards are going to start, but I assume it is Sato (5700) at PG. He is matched up against Sexton (4500) who is statistically the worst defender in the NBA. He has shown 3x2 upside quite frequently, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he got there again today. Sexton, on the other hand, will be facing the only decent defender on either team. He’s cheap so I don’t mind taking the risk, but don’t think the 29th OPRK on DK is accurate- that is a function of John Wall, not Sato.
Beal (8800) should get the start at SG. If this game stays close, Beal should put up 50 DKP. He is grossly underpriced here, especially considering the matchup. He will be faced off with Clarkson (5200) who is, like his counterpart, his team’s leader in Usage. Now that he’s getting a chance to start, I wouldn’t be surprised if Clarkson gets 30 real life points tonight. He is one of my favorite plays on the slate.
At SF, the Wizards will continue Operation Run Trevor Ariza (5700) into the ground. Given the Wizards desire to go small, I am not sure if the new acquisitions will make too much of a difference here. He should be faced off against Osman, who was the hottest Cav before he got injured, but instead he has to face Nwaba (3700) who is pesky and annoying as a defender. He shouldn’t play anywhere near the number of minutes Ariza plays, though, meaning Ariza should get a good chunk against a Blossomgame (3100).
PF/C is where things start to get a little tricky. Porter and Bryant (5200) had been starting for Washington. Then Otto was traded and Green (5300) filled in as the starter for a game. But tonight, with the possibility of Portis (5300) and Jabari (5000) being available, we are going to have to wait and see how the Wizards plan on doing this. It is possible Jabari and Porter get the start, it’s possible Porter gets the start at the 4 with Bryant at the 5. Or, also possible, neither is active for this game. Luckily enough, this game is with the 7pm tip offs, so we should know well before lock. Either way, I have a ton of interest in whichever of these 4 is starting. They will be matched up against Deng Adel (3100) and Zizic (5300), neither of which I have much interest in. I want to see if they plan on using Chriss (3100). Most importantly, Kevin Love (7500) is questionable. If he plays, I imagine he will be severely limited (and thus not worth that price), but he will also make the other bigs on this team unplayable.
Bulls vs Nets - TIP OFF: 730pm
Stats and Stuff
O/U - 223.5, BK -8.5
Bulls
Pace - 22th
Injuries - LaVine PROBABLE
Trade Deadline Changes - Jabari, Portis GONE, Otto Porter ADDED
DvP Says: Worst in the NBA against SG
Players in the top 50 in Usage: LaVine (16th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: NONE
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: NONE
Nets
Pace - 3th
Injuries - Dudley OUT, LeVert IN (YAY!)
Trade Deadline Changes - NONE
DvP Says: Weakest against PG. Also below average against PF
Players in the top 50 in Usage: D-Lo (13th), Napier (37th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: NONE
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: NONE
BREAKDOWN
LeVert (5300) is back!!! I’ve told the story before of why I’m a Nets fan and, if I wasn’t in so much pain, I would tell it again tonight. Needless to say, given his absence since the middle of November, I am really happy to see LeVert back. The fact he has been out so long means that I assume he will be limited to about 20 (or less) minutes, but those 20 minutes are going to significantly change the way the Nets play. He is a fantastic defender, fantastic passer, and loved taking shots. He could pay off the 5300 in 20 minutes (though I don’t suggest you go there. I’m just saying, he could). I think this will wind up being a great thing for Russell (8200), though it will reduce his assist upside, thus greatly reducing his chances at the 2x2 bonus. Today it won’t matter much, given the stunted minutes Caris will see, but I expect them to share those 20 or so minutes together, and LeVert to get himself at least 5 potential assists just to D’Angelo.
I think Dunn (6500) is a great play if you are playing cash, where you can take safe people without as much upside. I think he could get 40 DKP today, but I don’t think he could get you the 50+ you would need to win the tourney. His teammate, LaVine (6900), though, does. Since 1/23 against the Hawks, LaVine’s price has gone from 6900 to 7200 to 8100 to 7200 to 7200 to 6600 and now 6900 today. The reason he was 8100 is cause he can get you 40 real points any game, if his shot starts falling.
The only thing stopping me from going all in on LaVine here is the fact that the Nets are, by far, weakest against PF/C meaning Markkanen (7000) is my favorite play in this game. We have to break down a couple more things, too- First, as we discussed, Porter (5800) is here and Jabari and Portis are not. Carter is still injured. The Bulls are going to buy out RoLo, which means he shouldn’t be available (pay attention to this news). If all that happens, the only other C option the Bulls have is Felicio (3000) who will never get enough PPM to make him a worthwhile play. What it DOES mean, though, is we have a good chance of seeing a Dunn/LaVine/Selden (4100)/Otto Porter/Markkanen lineup tomorrow. Meaning Markkanen gets to be the starting Center against the Nets. Oh Boy. I’ll take 2, please. If I was picking an MSC today, and I knew for sure the buyout would happen before tomorrow’s game, Markkanen would be my play of the day and I would stand by that regardless.
While he has been playing PF, Lauri is 7’0” which is taller than anyone on the Nets roster. For this reason, I expect a lot of minutes for Allen (5000) and I love the idea of running both Lauri and Jarrett out there tonight. LeVert’s presence makes me take a wait and see approach on Napier, Carroll, and Harris. I think Harris (4600) is the safest bet for minutes here, but I am really not sure how they are going to play it now.
Otto Porter is going to probably start at PF, get 40 minutes, and drop 40 DKP on these Nets. I don’t know if there are games I like much better than this one tonight. The Bulls are in a massive pace up spot, and they have a couple guys in GREAT spots. Plus the Nets are a great team, will be getting a key star back, and should be able to keep their attack up all game.
I will finish this by pointing out a couple of random punts you might want to take a chance on - Ed Davis (3700) and RHJ (3700), who should both see decent run, as well as Crabbe (3900). He only played 13 minutes last game, working back from injury. I don’t expect this to get much more than 20, but the price is good, he likes to shoot, and, while his ceiling is going to limited by his minutes, there are plenty of people at this price who won’t come near what he should score tonight.
Bucks vs Mavs - TIP OFF: 830pm
Stats and Stuff
O/U - 222.5, MIL -8
Bucks
Pace - 6th
Injuries - Middleton OUT, Donte OUT, Giannis PROBABLE, Mirotic QUESTIONABLE
Trade Deadline Changes - Thon Maker, Jason Smith GONE, Mirotic ADDED
DvP Says: Above Average against every position
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Giannis (6th), Bledsoe (44th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Bledsoe (3rd - PG) Giannis (2nd - PF), BroLo (9th - C)
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: NONE
Mavs
Pace - 27th
Injuries - Barea and Porzingis OUT
Trade Deadline Changes - Barnes, Mejri, Jordan, DSJ, Matthews GONE, Justin Jackson, Porzingis, Lee, Hardaway, Burke ADDED
DvP Says: Something irrelevant, given the new Roster
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Doncic (7th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: NONE
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: NONE
BREAKDOWN
The Bucks will be resting Middleton tonight, which makes everyone else a lot more intriguing. They will all see bumps with Middleton out, replaced most likely by Tony Snell who is primarily a defensive player. This means Bledsoe (6700), who has been red hot lately, is in an even better spot. He just got 53 DKP in 27 minutes in their blowout over the Wizards. He has been shooting more, getting damn near 10 rebounds, and damn near double digits in assists. All of that will be helped with Khris out. This would also be a huge boost to Brogdon (5600) who should get to 40 DKP tonight with the extra minutes and run. Giannis (11400), already one of the top plays on the slate, becomes even better. I have expressed my concern about his minutes, and that doesn’t change. He is still only getting 30 or so minutes a game, but he is getting 67.75 DKP and 62 DKP with those minutes, which might be the most anyone on the slate gets. Now he will be going against a depleted Mavs team he should be able to dominate (especially with Deandre Jordan no longer there).
I’m not really sure what exactly to make of the Mavs when we get down to the lower priced people, but we can start with the fact that I have been saying Doncic (9500) has the ability to put up a triple-double every game he plays for over a month now, before he had put up 1. Now, with this team on his back, he is coming off yet another 3x2 and will have a decent chance to do so today, even though this Bucks defense is the best in the NBA. There are safer places to spend tonight, but his upside is awesome, and, if this game stays as close as Vegas thinks, Doncic is the only reason why.
The other thing I know is that Hardaway (4900) is going to be asked to SHOOT. He only got 26 minutes in his first game with the Mavs, and still put up 16 shots and 9 3s. He only hit 5 shots, and 2 of the 3s, but, again, he is a scoring dependent player. He had been priced over 7k. If his shot falls today, he is going to win someone thousands of dollars on this slate.
The last thing I know is that Jordan, Mejr, and Zach Randolphi are gone. That means that this team’s front court is going to be owned and manned by Powell (4400), Kleber (4200), and DFS (3900) all of whom are drastically underpriced for their new responsibilities. Two of these guys were on the winning lineup last time they played, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they did it again at those prices.
Warriors vs Suns - TIP OFF: 900pm
Stats and Stuff
O/U - N/A
Warriors
Pace - 9th
Injuries - NONE
Trade Deadline Changes - NONE
DvP Says: Weakest against PF. Below Average against C and SG.
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Curry (14th), Durant (22nd), Klay (40th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Durant (8th - SF), Dray (1st - PF)
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: Klay (5th Worst SG)
Suns
Pace - 7th
Injuries - Melton, Warren OUT, Booker QUESTIONABLE
Trade Deadline Changes - Ryan Anderson GONE, Tyler Johnson ADDED
DvP Says: 2nd worst in NBA against C. Terrible against SG. Below Average against PF/PG
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Booker (4th), Oubre (46th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: NONE
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: Booker (WORST - SG), Ayton (5th Worst - C)
BREAKDOWN
Ugh. The All-Star team gets to go to Phoenix this time. The O/U and spread aren’t out, but let me take a guess - it will be like 235 total with a -14 spread for the Warriors. Which means, like always, it will be hard to spend a lot of salary on people who cannibalize each other. Especially if Booker (8300) is out. If you want to play a Warrior, I would go with Klay (6300) first, given just how bad the Suns are against players like Klay, as well as how terrible Booker is as a defender. Their last game, the Warriors have shown that they will not only bench the starters, but the backups. Meaning no one gets enough minutes to be worth a play, even the punts. On the Suns side, I am all over Tyler Johnson (4300) here. Even if Booker plays, Tyler is gonna get 30 minutes regardless of if this one blows out. He is an even better play, though, if Booker is out. Everyone else here is kind of a dart throw. Will Jackson (5900) or Oubre (5900) have the good game? Will Holmes (4000) and Bender (3900) keep making each other unplayable? We are just going to have to wait and see. And, if you want to play this game, get a dartboard or a random number generator.
Wolves vs Pelicans - TIP OFF: 930pm
Stats and Stuff
O/U - N/A
Wolves
Pace - 14th
Injuries - Rose, Tyus, Teague, Bayless QUESTIONABLE, RoCo - OUT
Trade Deadline Changes - NONE
DvP Says: Weakest against PG
Players in the top 50 in Usage: KAT (21st), Wiggins (27th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: NONE
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: Rose (4th Worst SG), Wiggins (5th Worst SF)
Pelicans
Pace - 8th
Injuries - Payton OUT, Moore QUESTIONABLE, Brow IN
Trade Deadline Changes - Wes Johnson, Mirotic GONE, Jason Smith, Stan Johnson ADDED
DvP Says: Weakest against SF, also Below Average against PG, C, and PF
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Brow (21st), Julius (41st), Jrue (47th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Jrue (8th - PG), Brow (3rd - PF)
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: Julius Randle (WORST - C)
BREAKDOWN
The Wolves are the only team on the slate on the 2nd night of a back-to-back so, of course, this game tips off 2nd latest and we may not know the status of any of their 4 PGs until after lock. As it stands, Rose, Tyus, and Teague could not play yesterday and should be considered Questionable, at best, for tonight. On top of that Bayless, who had been getting the PG run for this team, got injured in the 4th quarter and couldn’t return. Like the other 3 PGs, his status is unknown for tomorrow and, since they are playing a back-to-back, there shouldn’t be a shootaround which means we may just not know for a long time. If any of the PGs play, without limits, I would be very interested. I expect them all to miss this one, though, and if they do the only real PG they have on the roster is Canaan (3000) who would be the chalkiest chalk of the season. I can’t imagine he wouldn’t get you close to 10x value though, at minimum price.
This also means that KAT (10000) and Wiggins (6000) would both be close to locks tonight. The amount I like all of these people decreases with the amount of minutes the 4 PGs play. If it’s 0, I am 100% in. If 3 of them are active, I will still like KAT, but I won’t love anyone.
For the Pels, Brow (11200) will be back tonight. He will be starting. He should be back to his normal amount of minutes (though pay attention to any news about that through the day). I think he is going to go ape shit tonight and I want to get all in on that. With Davis in, Jrue (9200) is priced higher than I would like, but he should still get you 50 easy DKP against this Wolves roster, meaning he is underpriced. Also Randle (8000) is back, should get over 30 minutes, and should also get you 50 DKP. I don’t expect anyone else to matter on this team anymore. Sorry Frank and Darius and Kenrich (and Overpriced Okafor). Brow is taking this team back, and we should see a hell of a fast paced shootout between these 2 teams today. If you are going to stack one game, I’m pretty sure this is going to be your best bet from a total, pace, defense, and, most importantly, from a consolidated usage perspective.
Heat vs Kings - TIP OFF: 1000pm
Stats and Stuff
O/U - 218.5, SAC -2.5
Heat
Pace - 29th
Injuries - Dragic, Jones OUT
Trade Deadline Changes - Tyler Johnson, Ellington GONE, Ryan Anderson ADDED
DvP Says: Weakest Against PF
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Wade (39th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Richardson (7th - SG), Justise (9th - SF), Whiteside (3rd - C)
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: NONE
Kings
Pace - 10th
Injuries - NONE
Trade Deadline Changes - Shumpert, Randolph, Justin Jackson, Skal GONE, Burks, Barnes, Swanigan ADDED
DvP Says: Weakest against PG. Also Below Average against SF
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Bagley (49th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: NONE
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: Bagley (WORST - PF)
BREAKDOWN
This is one of the toughest games I’ve had to break down. Both of these coaches play deep rotations. It’s a bunch of players not getting enough minutes. So, first, Miami is in a great pace up spot. They thinned out the wing by getting rid of Johnson and Ellington. However, the first person I want to look at is Whiteside (6800). I know I can’t predict when he’s gonna get minutes. But he has 30 and 31 minutes he last 2 games. WCS and Bjelica and Bagley are big dudes, so they might want to play Whiteside another 30 minutes. If he does that, he should sail past 50 DKP again, easily. No one on the Kings can stop him. The only question is if Spoelstra gives him the minutes we need to get production out of him. I will love taking the chance in GPP. Just be careful in any other game mode.
Getting rid of those 2 wings solidifies the production we are getting from Wade (5000), who has knocked on the door of 40 DKP in both of his last games. He is going to need to keep shooting the ball, even moreso now, and we should get on Wade before his price gets to 6500 in a couple weeks. I also think we see a set number of guaranteed minutes for Waiters (3900) who has been a great producer when given the chance. If he can start getting 25+ minutes a night, we are gonna see him at 5500 or so in a few weeks and, just like with Wade, we should get on him before DK adjusts to this new normal. I also want to point out Justise (5500) here. He has shown the ability to get you between 40-50DKP every once in awhile. A matchup against the Kings, where Tyler Johnson won’t fight him for ball handling, might be the recipe he needs to get back there. This is a risky GPP play, but he could absolutely go off here, and I can’t imagine anyone would be on him.
I have talked on several occasions about Miami being really bad at defending against PFs. This means that my favorite play on the Kings is recently acquired Barnes (5200). I have talked about how Barnes, a consummate professional, didn’t mind taking a backseat to Luka, and let him take the team over. He did what he needed for the good of the Mavs. Now he is on a Kings team that is going to need him to take the production in his hands tonight and I expect he will be licking his chops for the chance to do that. I also love Bagley (6200), since I expect him to get backup minutes at both PF/C today, and he should still push 30 minutes and 40 DKP regardless. He’s a little too expensive to be considered any kind of lock, especially with Barnes and Bjelica, but I still think it’s a great play for the ceiling the kid has shown.
Ok, I keep breaking my records for longest article ever, but I actually need to stop this short because I am about to run into the character limit. Best of luck tonight, everyone!!!