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bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for January 21st and Review of January 20th


Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!


Yesterday In Review:

The Bathrobe vs. Pocket_Saand Head-To-Head Series:

He is Cash. I am GPP. Let’s keep track of how a daily head-to-head stacks up.

3 in a row now!! I’m finally having my luck turn! 285.25-218.75

Overall Record: 3-3


My Lineup- - This is the one lineup I enter into GPPs

NamePriceDKPValueProj OwnReal OwnDiffWallace31004.251.4x0.9%12%11.1!!SGA470015.53.3x45.8%39.6%6.2Josh Jackson390025.256.5x30.3%21%9.3Harris760060.755.8x36.4%42.6%6.2KAT10600615.8x58.2%66.8%8.6Booker830032.53.9x48.9%58.9%10LMA850055.56.5x34.9%32.8%2.1Bender300030.510.2x14.9%24.4%9.5Total50000285.255.739x


Entry Fees: 29.00

Winnings: 35.37


Best Possible Lineup- - Using the free lineup rewind tool on fantasycruncher, I find the highest possible lineup that could have been played.

NamePriceDKPCollison510040.75Avery Bradley360029.75Harris760060.75Bender300030.5KAT1060061PatBev390053.5LMA850055.5Rose640040Total48700371.75


My NFL Lineup

NamePriceDKPMaholmes660024.9Kamara650022.1J White540011.2Tyreek77005.2Edelman660016.6Ginn43008.8Josh Hill25003.4MT82007.6Pats21003Total49900102.8


Analysis-

With all the injury news to the Suns, I knew I was gonna lock in Booker and KAT. I also thought Jackson was too cheap at 3900. Additionally, if you follow me on twitter, I made a whole long thread about why the Suns would need Bender today, so I played him. With Gallo and LouWill out, I wanted to get in Harris and SGA who had been getting good minutes and usage. LMA was also one of my favorite plays, as I explained in great detail in my analysis. This left me with 3200 and I was fine punting with Wallace. He didn’t hit any shots last game after the injuries, but his USG was in the 20s. If he got that again, he had a good chance of getting the 20 DKP I wanted, especially if he got the 20+ minutes he got last game (he didn’t).


The Early Slate:

HAPPY MLK DAY EVERYONE!!!!!! While we are enjoying a great day of basketball today, make sure you take a few minutes to read or listen to “Letters from a Birmingham Jail” and truly appreciate the brilliance of Dr. King and what he was fighting for.


Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day

Matchup Specific Ceiling is a “quasi-metric” I use to make decisions. If you haven’t read my explanation, please check out this link right here

The explanation begins in the “injury/lineup news” section about halfway down.

In this section, I will pick the player who has fewest factors preventing him from reaching his ceiling, considering spread, pace, O/U, defense, usage, teammate health, and other factors.


Blake Griffin - Drummond was ruled out from his concussion, and Blake (9600) crushed in a similar spot the other day, so I expect Blake to be uber chalk tomorrow. But I will gladly eat all of that chalk right up. With Drummond out, he should be priced up. And he is, in that his price is higher than it was last game. But he was 9400 a few games ago, with Drummond in, against Utah, so this doesn’t seem like it is nearly high enough. But he’s still the 2nd most expensive, and while MSC doesn’t take price into consideration, it takes the individual and game factors, so let’s look at those. First, he has shown 80 DKP upside this year. Granted that was in an OT game, but it was also against a much better defensive team in the Sixers. He has also managed a 70 and several games in the 60s, so we are talking about someone who could even exceed 6x value here without much question. Unfortunately, we can’t discuss spread or O/U since this game hasn’t been posted yet. But I can say that the Pistons are 25th in pace in the last 15 games while the Wizards are 9th, meaning Blake and Co. will be in a great pace up spot, which makes it even better for him. In terms of defense, Washington is really, really terrible. We know they can be attacked by bigs since Dwight went out, which increases Blake’s output and rebound projections. In terms of individual defenders, Blake will see either of the Wizards’ Forwards, Jeff Green (who starts at PF), or Ariza (who starts at SF). They are both ranked as SFs according to DRPM, though. In that metric, Jeff Green is 82nd out of 90. Meaning there are only 8 SFs worse than him in all of basketball. And, wouldn’t you know it, Ariza is one of them, ranked 83rd. As good as the matchup was against the Kings, Bjelica is a top 10 DRPM PF for starters. The Wizards have no one even sniffing the top 70. Usage is another awesome bonus for Blake- Blake is 13th in the NBA overall with a USG rate of 30.6 (the next closest Piston is RJax who is 64th). But that is his usage rate on the year. Last game, without Drummond, his usage rate was 37.5. The game before, when Drummond got injured real early, against a Heat team weakest against PF, his usage was 39.5. Just for comparison’s sake, Harden’s year long usage is 40.7 and 2nd is Westbrook at 33.7. Blake is going to get a huge usage boost now, and there is absolutely no one who will be able to stop him. Zaza (4100) got a bunch of rebounds, but couldn’t even get to 10 points. He will have an easier time against the Wizards, so I still think he’s underpriced if he will get 30 minutes again (and with them shelving Ellenson, he should), but Blake will still be the prime beneficiary of Drummond’s absence. I don’t care if his ownership is over 50%, he will be the first lock I make this afternoon.


Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):


Markkanen - When I started putting this article together, I was planning on using Markkanen (6900) as my play of the day. But, as I started getting all the formatting done, Drummond was ruled out and Blake took over the obvious top spot. But I will also be locking Lauri in this afternoon. He has seen a huge usage boost with Carter out, with USG rates the last couple games of 26.6 and 34.4. His price has come up 1000 in the last two games but, as is often the case, it hasn’t come up quite enough for the situation. For once, neither the Cavs nor the Bulls are expected to be blown out because they are playing each other. While the O/U is low at 213.5 it’s still well above what I would have expected, and the spread of CHI -2 means this is definitely a game we can target. Additionally, the Cavs are the worst team in the NBA against PFs, meaning Lauri is in, literally, as good a spot as it’s possible to be in for him.


Zizic - With his greatly increased price tag, Zizic (5700) is going to be tough to play for a lot of people. I will not be one of them. The Bulls are not just weakest against C as a team, but they are one of the worst in the NBA. Tristan has already been ruled out, meaning Zizic should be in line for 30+ minutes again. His last 3 games, without Tristan, were against Jokic, Gobert, and Nurkic, 3 of the best defensive Centers in the NBA, and he scored 30.5, 33, and 31.5 DKP. With an easier matchup, and a closer game, I expect him to exceed both that total and his value today, with ease.


Beal and Ariza - At this point, no one should have to tell you to play Beal (9400) as long as Wall, Morris, and Howard are out. He controls a lion’s share of the usage on this team, and the Pistons are not a good defense. Specifically, he should be matched up against Reggie Jackson, who is one of my favorite players to shit on. His USG gets close to 40 in good games, and this is going to be a great game for him. I will start my lineups with Blake, Lauri, and Beal if I can. For some reason, “Operation Run Trevor Ariza (5900) into the ground” hasn’t raised his price over 6k. He’s getting 40 minutes every game, and has been putting up around 30DKP a game (which is value) with random games near 50 DKP. That is one of the best deals you are going to get today, and he’s as safe as you will find as well.


Kings vs Nets - What may wind up being the best single game of the day for DFS production, the Kings/Nets matchup has an awesome O/U of 230 and a spread of only BK -3. I have talked about how the Kings are spreading things out, so we should be careful. That being said, there are some things we can love today anyway. As a smart person should do, one of the first things we look for today is if the Nets are playing, and if the Center is priced decently enough. Check and Mate there, with WCS (6600) way, way underpriced for someone manning the 5 against the hapless Nets. This also makes WCS’ backup, Giles (3700) an interesting punt if WCS is exceptionally popular, cause he should be able to put up more than 1 PPM today. With the Kings spreading the “shooters” around as well, we should recognize they seem to be going with the hot hand approach, meaning either Hield (7100) or Bogdan (5400) could be the one pushing 40 minutes while the other one finishes just above 20. If I am taking that risk, I would go for the cheaper one. The one consistent play is the most expensive, Fox (7800). As poorly as I talk about the NBA-worst D of Trae Young and Collin Sexton, it is important to remember that, a couple years ago, that position was occupied by D’Angelo Russell. He has gotten better, sure, but he’s still bad. And Fox has shown his ability to put up an easy 50 DKP, and seems to be one of the only Kings who are likely to get to 30 minutes regardless. On the other side of the ball, the Nets (13th in pace) are in a great pace up spot against the 3rd ranked Kings, meaning everyone gets a nice little bump. SAC is weakest against SFs and PGs defensively, meaning Russell (8300) and Harris (5000) are in great spots today (though Harris does spend a lot of time at SG). This also means Dinwiddie (5700) will be in just as good a spot as Russell, but he is 2600 cheaper. We have all seen how quickly the Nets coach’s favor can turn in a game. Russell can miss a defensive switch and sit an entire quarter. There’s nothing wrong with getting Dinwiddie in there today, without question, given the total and his guaranteed role in this offense. I would love to recommend Allen (6200) who I love as a player, and who the Nets will need against WCS, but, for some reason, they don’t want to play him more then 30 minutes unless some kind of catastrophe happens. So while he is in a great spot, and his price isn’t high enough for the skill he has, it is too high for the minutes they give him. DeMarre Carroll (4900) is back to his 30 minutes a game, and he will be in a great spot as well. People haven’t moved on him yet, so make sure you get on him before everyone else does.


Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):

NONE!!! There’s something good everywhere!! Yay!!


Situations to monitor:

Deandre Jordan being QUESTIONABLE - If Jordan misses, Dallas will have no one to guard the paint and Giannis (10800) will have an absolute field day tomorrow. So much so, I would worry this game pretty easily blows out. As it is, MIL is projected to win by 11.5, so it’s not exactly like Vegas thinks it’ll be close anyway. With the number of other high priced players I like, I doubt I will get to Giannis, but he is always one of the best plays on any slate he plays in. If Jordan plays, I think he’s a lot more viable. If Jordan is out, I would also have interest in Brogdon (5500) who will get 30+ minutes and be assured of minutes even if the game blows out. On the Dallas side, DSJ is projected to come back on Tuesday, but he will miss this game. Barea will out the whole year. This means that, again, Doncic (7900)will run the lion’s share of this offense. Regardless if Jordan misses, this team is Luka’s now. He will be a triple-double threat, with the ability to get an easy 50 DKP every night and they refuse to price him correctly (especially considering he got ejected last game). He will be going against a good defense, but it doesn’t matter when you handle the ball and shoot 20+ times a game. If Jordan misses, even though BroLo is 7 foot, he is not a standard Center meaning they probably won’t need to go to a Mejri (3000). While he may get a few minutes, I would expect a majority of the Center minutes to be split between Kleber (4400) who is 6’11” and they like starting anyway, and Dwight Powell (3400) who gets backup minutes as it is, and has a decent PPM. Both would be great, great plays today if Jordan misses.


Aaron Gordon being QUESTIONABLE - I will start by saying that there is no O/U or spread here but we all know Atlanta plays with one of the fastest paces in the NBA, regardless of how slow Orlando is, so I expect the O/U to be significant. The spread, though, is another question. If Gordon plays, this is a very underrated Magic team on both ends of the court, and I expect they will completely annihilate the Hawks. Even if Gordon plays, I will still have massive interest in Vuc (9500) who will be in one of the best spots on the slate. I like a couple people other than him, but I still like him a ton. If Gordon misses, it’ll be a really hard choice between Beal and Vuc, and I expect I will have to see how the rest of the slate plays itself out. If Gordon misses, all of the normal people also become great plays. Fournier (5700) who had a terrible shooting day and will be underowned is great against this Hawks “perimeter D”. Isaac (4200)* would be one of my favorite plays of the day again. Simmons (3600) would also presumably get the start again, and he did admirably last game. His price hasn’t come up enough for that possibility, so be ready to jump on him if Gordon is declared out (and Simmons gets the start). On the other side, again, if Gordon plays I can’t imagine wanting to go with any of the more expensive guys. The cheaper guys like Lin (4300) and Spellman (3800) would become really interesting punts. If Gordon misses, it opens up a huge defensive hole right where Collins (7700) lives. We saw him almost single-handedly keep Atlanta ahead of Boston until, for no reason, the coaches decided not to play him in the second half of the game as much, and he only finished with 29 minutes. Assuming they aren’t equally stupid today (or just tryin’ for Zion), Gordon being out would make me fall in love with Collins and it will be hard not to move stuff around to get him in there (though, again, the minutes are a major worry).


The Main Slate:

In case you weren’t playing on Saturday, and didn’t catch my Good Chalk/Bad Chalk, I want to make sure to repost this here:


BONUS SECTION: HOW HIGH IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR HARDEN

So I continually refer to how Harden’s price is “high but not high enough”. To dive into it, we consider “reaching value” on DK as a player getting 5x their salary. What that means is that if someone’s salary is 10k, you multiply it by 5x and if they get 50, they “reach value”. If you want to win tournaments, you should be looking for people who will get 6x+, meaning you want to “exceed value” and that same 10k person should be able to safely project 60DKP if the situation presents itself. So let’s look at James Harden, and his pricing and his situation. As I have explained in the past, Harden is doing Babe-Ruth-in-1920 things to the NBA right now. It’s something I don’t know if i’ve ever seen and something we should appreciate the hell out of. But his price keeps growing. On DK, I don’t know if I ever remember seeing someone 13400 in the NBA (as he was last game). But “a lot” does not mean “too much.” We can start by saying Harden has been AVERAGING 80 DKP lately. So let’s just use 80 DKP as his projection (with a HIGHER CEILING, by the way). For Harden to reach value at 13200, he would only need 66 DKP. In fact, Harden’s average projection over the last few days is actually Harden ALREADY EXCEEDING value (6x of 13200 would be 79.2 DKP). So, clearly this price is still not NEARLY close to high enough for someone putting up 80 DKP a game. If we look at it the other way, if he scores 80 DKP, what would he have to be priced in order to “reach value”? Well, that’s simple math. Divide 80 by 5 and multiply that by 1000 and you get the salary where Harden would start only providing value: 16000. And I can’t imagine DK will EVER, EVER price anyone that high. So, if ownership isn’t 80%, and his price stays under 15k, there is no reason to let price ever change your outlook on Harden (while CP3 and, now, Capela are out).


Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day


James Harden (Joel Embiid) - I will say this to start this section off: I have watched the last 2 Sixers games from start to finish. Embiid (10100) is injured. He doesn’t look right. He is moving slowly. He is grimacing constantly. He is taking a long time to get going, a symptom of the pain he is in. It just doesn’t look good. However, he has still played the last 2 games, looking injured, against the fantastic Ds of Myles Turner and Stephen Adams. He still managed 34 and 35 minutes, putting up 51 and 58.25 DKP, respectively. Today he will be going against a Rockets team that has been starting PJ Tucker at the 5 WHO IS SIX FOOT FIVE. While the Rockets are expected to sign Faried and have him available for this game, he is still bad enough to have been cut by the Nets, and he's also only 6'8". Meaning Embiid will see one of the biggest mismatches in his career, and he has the potential to go so fucking insane we can’t even understand it right now (great analysis, bathrobe).


However, like I said, he is injured. He is Questionable right now. In interviews the other day, he said the injury isn’t something that necessarily happened to him. It’s more a muscle pain that periodically comes and goes. If he comes out of shootaround tomorrow saying he feels great, and he is not having a bad day (or, better yet, if someone posts video of him going through workouts), he is possibly the best play so far this entire season. I wish I could say I’m exaggerating, but Jarrett Allen put 60+ DKP on Tucker. What the fuck is Embiid going to do to him!?!? If he plays and he is hobbled, I would still have interest in him (since he should still easily get to 60 DKP), but the MSC pick would have to move to his opponent Harden (13200) who saw his price go down 200 even though he is fresh off another MVP worthy performance. Harden, with Gordon, brought this game back from blow out status and scored 78 DKP with an OT period to help. Harden is going to have his hands full with both Simmons and Butler (who is questionable and may not play), but as we have seen that doesn’t matter at all. There are only 4 games on this slate (for some reason the Pels/Grizzlies game is in limbo). Two of the games have O/Us in the 210s. One has an O/U in the 230s but a spread of over 10. This one, though, has a line of 234 and a spread of PHI -5. And as we all know, a large % of those points scored for the Rockets will go through Harden tonight.


Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):


The Rest of the Rockets/Sixers Game - I already talked about how either Embiid/Harden will be the play of the day, depending on the health of Embiid. Normally, while I like to just pick one play I really like from a game, there’s a lot to like from this game. First, as discussed earlier, Embiid and Butler (7100) are Questionable for this game. If it was a game against the Cavs, maybe they would miss, but I can’t imagine either of these guys won’t do everything they can to be out there. However, if they are both out, Simmons (8600), Redick (5700), and Muscala (3600) would all get locked into my lineup. If Embiid is out and Butler plays, I will have interest in all 4 of these guys. If Butler misses and Embiid plays, I will want to focus on getting Embiid. Assuming they both play though, Simmons and Redick will be seeing the awful guard defense of either Harden, Gordon (worst SG in the NBA), or Rivers (3rd worst PG). Both of these guys would be incredible plays regardless, even if Simmons is too scared to take a jumper to win a game. On the side, I will have a lot of interest in Gordon (5900) who looks like he has shaken all of the rust off. The pricing hasn’t caught up with it though. His first game back he only played 21 minutes and still managed to put up 11 shots (8 of them were 3s) and scored 20 real points and 30.25 DKP. He was priced at 6000 for that game. After going slightly over value in 21 minutes, his price fell to 5900 for their last game. He, with Harden, brought this game back. He played 32 minutes, shot 7-16 (including 5-10 from 3) and put up 43.75 DKP. For some reason, his price didn’t budge. So take advantage of that, cause I imagine a lot of other people will as well. Tucker (5300) is a terrible, terrible choice for starting C, as he is only 6’5”, but regardless, he got 42 minutes both of the games where he started at C. The first game he got a 20/10 double double at 4700 and put up 42.5 DKP. Last game his price rose to 5300 and he was 1 point and 1 rebound from a double double. He still managed 34.75 DKP. Like with Gordon, his price hasn’t come up yet. Additionally, when he isn’t playing C, he will slide over to PF where he will get a great matchup against either Chandler or Muscala. (So it goes without saying, if Embiid is out, Tucker is one of the plays of the day. Period). I have no problem getting all 3 of them in there today if you want. All 3 of them could pay off at the same time, without any problem whatsoever. EDIT- Apparently, Faried (3000) is going to clear waivers today, be immediately signed by the Rockets, and will be available for this game. Incredibly, he is available, AS A ROCKET, for the minimum, although you have to use a PF slot for him. He is the best punt of the day. Get him in there.


Jazz - Rubio (5700) returned to a full practice on Sunday. He is currently listed as a game time decision for tonight (another reason to fade the early game - in case we don’t find out in time). He has missed 2 weeks with a hamstring injury, so I imagine if he came back he will be limited. But if he gets anywhere near a normal run (which, again, we shouldn’t expect) he would be an absolute smash play for a Jazz team that’s still going to be without Exum and Neto and will have no other PG besides Donovan (8200). Speaking of which, he’s in an amazing spot regardless. Either he will get 40 minutes as the PG in a game that’s finally supposed to stay close for Utah at price 1000 too cheap, at least. Or if Rubio plays, he gets 20+ minutes as the backup PG and 20+ as the SG where he would get to line up against CJ. Which, I mean.. Yes please. Gobert (8500) probably has the toughest individual matchup on the team, but he also has undergone some kind of pricing problem on DK. 4 games ago he was 8200 and put up 52 DKP. His price went up to 8400 next game and he put up 58.75. So his price went up to 8500, and he put up 63.5. This caused his price to go up to 8800 where he put up 53.25 DKP in 27 minutes. So now his price falls 300? The way he’s been playing? Again, Why??? As for the rest of the team Jae (4700) and O’Neale (4600) are both still cheap enough, and getting enough minutes/usage, that you can play them without any doubts.


Nurkic - Man, there are a lot of really great Center options today. It’s going to be really hard to choose on FD (Though I would go Embiid then Gobert then Nurkic). But Nurkic (7900) is still in a great spot. One of the most interesting statistical anomalies I have found- Gobert is the 2nd best defensive C in the NBA, but they give up 1.1 more PPG to Centers than the average team. This makes them 10th worst in the NBA in PPG against Centers. So, while Gobert is a great defender, it doesn’t mean that a good Center can’t get the best of him (it would mean people who try to get to the rim will have a really hard time). This means Nurkic, who has become the #2 option in the offense behind Lillard, should see the new-normal usage he’s been getting. Better yet, 3 games ago, Nurkic was 8600. He had one bad game which caused his price to fall to 7900. He responded by putting up 51.5 DKP in 28 minutes (due to blow out). The next game his price went up to 8200. The Blazers blew this one out, too, and Nurkic only got 26 minutes and still managed to put up 42 DKP. This is insane PPM, folks. And his price fell again. If he gets mid-30 minutes, he might wind up the best C play of the day (If Embiid misses..)


Lakers - Lonzo, Rondo, and LeBron will be out. While Rondo and LeBron should be back really soon, both are still expected to miss tonight. This means that someone is going to have to do the ballhandling. The only 3 options Ingram (6900), Hart (5200) and Lance Stephenson (4000) are all incredible plays today. All 3 are underpriced for the guaranteed minutes they would get with Lonzo injured, against the weakness the Warriors have against Guards (Klay is the 4th worst SG in DRPM). While this game has a worrisome spread of GS -10.5, it still has an awesome O/U of 235, and is between the 2nd and 8th fastest teams in the NBA. Unlike the Warriors, who I would worry about in the case of a blowout, I think the Lakers are thin enough that the big guys should still be locked in to 30+ minutes. This means that, not only are the 3 guards great, but so is Kuzma (7600) who is still priced low enough he can provide 5x value just in raw points (which is nuts). With the three healthy Centers, going up against a healthy Warriors team (who will occasionally play small with Dray at C), I have no idea how the Lakers will proceed. It seems that Zubac (4500) has become the favorite to close out games. Because of that I would give him a huge edge over the other 2 options.


Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):


Heat vs Celtics - One of my favorite things to do is something we will have the option to do today. This game locks in at 6pm. Then there is a huge 2 hour gap before the next game kicks off. When the early game has the lowest O/U on the slate, with the 2nd highest spread, and is between the slowest and 11th slowest teams over their last 15 games, I don’t think it’s crazy to take the advantage you get in the case late injury news breaks and fade this entire thing. 6 of the 10 starters are in the top 10 in DRPM for their positions: Smart (1-PG), Kyrie (8-PG), Richardson (10-SG), Justise (10-SF), Whiteside (4-C), and Horford (8-C). The only player in the bottom 5 at their position is Marcus Morris, who is 3rd worst among PFs, but will be matched up with a James Johnson (3700) that just can’t be trusted. Kyrie (9000) is someone I would have had interest in as a price play, but not at 9k. Justise (6300) was just over 7k and he should be priced there every game. While the matchup will be tough, he still does the ballhandling on this team, and has a solid floor and great ceiling. I don’t think it’s crazy to go there at all, especially given how unpopular he will be tonight. Hayward (5400) is back and ruins any of the value we would hope to get from the other mid-priced Celtics. The one thing I will say to watch out for, that I haven’t seen anything about, is that I wouldn’t be surprised if Smart (4300) is suspended for this game. If that is the case, I would have a lot of interest in Brown (4500) and Rozier (4400).


GoldenState TooManyCooks - It seems DK is slowly learning the lesson that when you have an entire all star team as your starters, they tend to cannibalize each others points. While Curry (9400) and Durant (9500) had prices at/over 10k last game, the massive usage Cousins got in his 15 minutes correctly pushed their prices down. The problem here is that Lonzo got injured last game and will miss a few weeks. Rondo and Lebron have returned to practice, but both are expected to miss this game (even though they are labelled as Questionable). This is clearly not what the NBA pictured when they picked this game to cap off an awesome MLK day of basketball. The O/U is stellar, at 235, but the spread is GS -10.5, and I think that is generous. While you aren’t supposed to predict blowouts, I can predict that I expect Curry, Durant, Dray (6500), and Klay (6400) to need to play less minutes than they would need to in a competitive game. Because of this, the only starter’s minutes we can predict is Cousins (5700) who, fresh off an awesome 31 DKP in 15 minutes, will have that limit raised to 20 minutes tonight. If you watched the game, the amount of stars on this team is forcing Ds to leave Cousins wide open on the perimeter. He is just going to keep going nuts until teams understand how to deal with this brand new Warriors team. While, again, it will be hard to pay 5700 for someone getting 20 minutes, like last game, he is going against a Lakers team that is fucking AWFUL against Centers. With the blowout risk, I would have interest in Looney (3900) who still got 28 minutes last game off the bench (he just didn’t perform) and should see similar run today. Similarly, while I know they like to watch his minutes as well, Iguodala (3900) should also see enough run to pay off that price. I don’t think he has the highest ceiling, but he should be a safe enough punt.


Situations to monitor:

Embiid Status

Rubio Status/Limitations


Alright! That’s it for a full day of action! Enjoy your MLK day everyone!!

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