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bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for January 25th

Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!

Yesterday In Review:

My Lineup- - This is the one lineup I enter into GPPs

Name | Price | DKP | Value | Proj Own | Real Own | Diff

Lillard | 8400 | 39.75 | 4.7x | 19.4%| 19.8%| 0.4

Booker | 7500 | 31.75 | 4.2x | 28.5%| 35.6%| 7.1

Miller | 3300 | 36.75 | 11.1x | 19.8%| 32.3%| 12.5!!

Diallo | 3000 | 24.5 | 8.2x | 17.1%| 20.4%| 3.3

Nurkic | 8000 | 29.75 | 3.7x | 14%| 22.4%| 8.4

Rondo | 5200 | 50 | 9.6x | 10.2%| 21.1%| 10.9

Okogie | 4400 | 15.75 | 3.6x | 15.1%| 9.2%| 5.9

KAT | 10200 | 57.5 | 5.6x | 29.1%| 32.5%| 3.4

**Total** | 50000 | 285.75 | 5.715x| | |

***Best Possible Lineup-***

Name | Price | DKP

Jrue | 8200 | 63.25

Seth Curry | 3200 | 36

Darius Miller | 3300 | 36.75

Layman | 3200 | 40

KAT | 10200 | 57.5

Westbrook | 10700 | 75.25

Oubre | 5700 | 45.5

Rondo | 5200 | 50

**Total** | 49700 | 404.25


So I was worried about the Warriors destroying the Wizards (or spreading out all the production too much) and, with all of the insane news for the Pelicans, I also didn’t want to invest a good chunk of salary on any of the stars from that game. So I locked in Miller, who was starting and would get some good run, and Diallo, who would get backup/blowout run today. At 6300 combined, with the rest of my team able to shift based on any injury news, I had to decide who I wanted to go with, obviously, but I knew I had a ton of great choices. First, I wanted to get off of the 70% projected to be on Okafor today by locking in 2 centers who were my favorite plays on the day anyway: KAT and Nurkic. I explained why I loved both of them in my analysis. Nurkic was my play of the day with Holmes out and KAT was 2nd. I wanted to play Booker to run back KAT, given his price and how much run he would get with Warren and Ayton out. I also locked in Rondo as soon as he was declared the starter. He was my 3rd favorite play on the day. This left me 2 spots that I had open. My choice was either Kuzma and Wiggins or Lillard and Okogie. I decided to go Lillard/Okogie with Teague out, and how weak Phoenix is against guards.

The Daily Slate:

Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day

Matchup Specific Ceiling is a “quasi-metric” I use to make decisions. If you haven’t read my explanation, please check out this link right here

The explanation begins in the “injury/lineup news” section about halfway down.

In this section, I will pick the player who has fewest factors preventing him from reaching his ceiling, considering spread, pace, O/U, defense, usage, teammate health, and other factors.

D’Angelo Russell - The NYK/BK game should be awesome. Both teams have been playing much faster of late, which should increase the production. This is demonstrated by the 224 total, which is one of the highest on the slate (though Vegas has it as a concerning spread of BK -10.). Everything else, though, points to this being another incredible spot for Russell (8600). First, his usage has been off the charts lately. With Crabbe, LeVert, and Dudley out, Russell has put this team on his back. While there have been some games over this stretch that Russell hasn’t taken the mantle, in those games the bulk of the load was shouldered by Spencer Dinwiddie. Unfortunately for the Nets, Dinwiddie tore some ligaments in his thumb and will be out at least a month. Based on his recent performance, his price has come up quite a bit, but it has only come up because of his performance, not in response to the extra load Russell is going to have to carry now. In 4 of the last 5 games, with Dinwiddie putting up the 35th highest usage rate in the NBA, Russell has shot the ball 21, 25, 25, and 26 times, amassing 54.25, 55.5, 58.5, and 55.75 points. All of this should go up with Dinwiddie out (and LeVert, Crabbe, and Dudley still out, and RHJ questionable too.) The Nets are going to score a ton of points tonight against this terrible Knicks D. Napier (3600) is also in an incredible spot, and I will also be locking him in tonight. If RHJ misses, I may also have to take a stab on Allen (5800) who, if given run, should also be able to thrive against whoever the hell the Knicks decide to stick at Center. If you don’t trust him (and I understand you don’t), then you want some Ed Davis (3800). In all honesty, Harris (4900) and Carroll (4700) are also both underpriced for getting over 30 minutes lately. Dinwiddie’s injury is going to cause ripple effects for this team. Most of that will be a wave of production for Russell, but the rest of the Nets will also see their boats rise tonight.

Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):

· Vuc - I will say that, against this bad Washington D, if you want to play any of the guys from this team, I would give a big thumbs up. But, since Howard has gone out, Washington has been particularly bad against Centers. Bryant has been ok, but he just hasn’t been able to hang with the elite Cs out there. Well tonight, he will be seeing an elite C in Vuc (9700). I know there’s quite a few people worth paying up for, but this has a pretty high 218 line with a close spread of ORL -4. There are some teams where the plan is: we have this awesome guy and if can beat the other team by himself, we will let him. Vuc is in one of those spots tonight. This is also a nice pace up spot for the Magic as a whole, so give Vuc a bump on top of everything else. He is the only player on this team in the top 50 (he’s 19th) in usage, and the only Magic player in the top 10 of his position in DRPM (6th at Center), giving him extra rebounds, blocks, etc. He also has an incredible assist rate for a Center, giving him a 3x2 upside only Jokic really has at this position.

· Bryant - No one is going to tell you Beal (8900) isn’t a potentially great GPP play any day he’s on the slate, especially with the current injuries to the Wizards. And we all know about operation run Trevor Ariza (6300) into the ground is still in full effect. Porter (6100) is still coming off the bench, but getting 30 min a game in certain cases. Sato (5500)has been producing really well, and going against a weak spot against Orlando. But one of hidden plays that I like best on the Wizards is Bryant (5400). He has been someone who only gets the run he is needed to get. In this case, it is when the Wizards are going against big Centers. Against Toronto, who played Ibaka, he got 34 minutes and 40.75 DKP. Against NY, who went small, he got 16 min. Against DET, who was missing Drummond but had Zaza, he got 26 minutes. Last night, against the Warriors, he played 21 of the 24 minutes Cousins was on the floor. Tonight, against a Magic squad that will play Vuc most of the game (and Gordon or Bamba), the Wizards are going to need Bryant’s height more than usual. I expect him to get 30 minutes or more tonight, and he could easily get 40 DKP in that circumstance.

· Clippers vs Bulls - When there isn’t an O/U/spread for a game by midnight, normally it’s because there is a person/people who are questionable. Sometimes, though, for no good reason, there is nothing out of Vegas. Sometimes, they have information we don’t and someone is ruled out the next day. So I want to start this by saying to be aware that this could all change. If it does, I will include an update in my Good Chalk/Bad Chalk later. As of right now, Gallo is OUT and Jabari Parker is Probable. Not enough not to have a line/spread, but oh well. The Bulls are 26th in pace and the Clippers are 8th, so that should tell you who is in a good spot and who is in a worse spot. Harris (8200) is expensive but he sees a nice increase in usage with Gallo out. LouWill (6700) should be back to normal, which means both him and Montrezl (6700) are in fantastic spots tonight. On the other side, if RoLo (3700)gets the start, even in 20 minutes, he could reach value. Regardless, Portis (5700), who would be getting a lot of run as a Center going against the Clippers, is easily in the best spot anyone could be in tonight. I would also be in on LaVine (7200) and Dunn (6600) against this terrible Clippers D.

· Kawhi - In big games, Kawhi (9500) takes over. And a game against newly crowned MVP frontrunner James Harden fits this bill. Kawhi should easily exceed 50 DKP tonight, at too low a price. He dominates usage when on the court, and he should be on the court 40 minutes tonight. He just got a full week of rest. They said they planned this week-long absence well in advance, so they always planned to have him come back for this game, meaning they probably really want to win it (or they would have had him back last game against the Pacers). This one has a great 228 total with a thin spread of TOR -2.5. Houston has Gordon lined up against him, and he is the 2nd worst SG in the NBA. Even if you don’t play Harden cause CP3 plays, Kawhi is an incredible choice tonight.

· Detroit’s 3 point shooters - The way to attack the Mavs is with the 3 pointer. So, even though Drummond will be back, he will be facing the staunch D of DeAndre Jordan. This means I will want to give all the attention on the Pistons to the shooters that take the most 3s. Over the last month, Griffin (9900) leads the Pistons with 33 made 3s, and is 2nd with 6.6 attempts a game. The main problem is he is priced for Drummond still being out. Second over the last month is Bullock (4400) who has sunk 30 threes, but averages slightly more attempts at 7 per game. Third is Galloway (3400) (who would be really sneaky with Ish Doubtful) who has made 24 threes and averages 5.1 a game. Next is R Jax (4700) who has also made 24 threes, but only attempts 4.9/g. Right on his heels in terms of attempts is Stan Johnson (3200) who attempts 4.8/g, but only has 14 in the last month, even though he only played 3 fewer games than Jackson. Last person worth mentioning is Kennard (3700) who has stepped it up lately, making 16 threes on only 3.7 attempts a game. I should also add Detroit is 28th in pace over the last couple weeks and Dallas is 20th, so this is a decent, but not great, pace up spot for them on top of everything else.

· Dennis Smith, Jr. - I’m sure DSJ (4800) spent his time on the sidelines reading NBA news about how this team was Luka’s now. How he would have to step aside. How the Mavs need to trade him to make room for the 19 year old kid. Well he came out a couple nights ago determined to punch us all in the metaphorical dicks and that he did. He logged 37 minutes in a close game, shooting 6-17 (1-6 from 3) on his way to 17p/8r/4a/1s and 33.5 DKP. The 4 assists are a concern, but, to compare, Doncic (8400) only played 32 minutes, and shot 5-15 (0-8 from 3) on his way to 17p/7r/6a/1b/1s and 37.25 DKP. I don’t know if Dallas is trying to prove he would be a valuable trade chip or what, but if they keep running him out there almost 40 minutes, and he takes more shots than Doncic at nearly half the price, sign me up. That also fails to mention he will matched up against Reggie Jackson who couldn’t defend the broad side of a barn (he is the 5th worst starting PG right now, and sinking).

· Jokic - As I am often fond of saying, Jokic is one of those dudes that just can’t be defended. If you put a good defender on him (one that can make it harder for him to shoot) he will pass the ball and get his 10 assists. If you don’t, he will get you 40 real points, and still be in the running for a 3x2 anyway. Well, Ayton and Holmes may be out again. Even if they aren’t, Jokic (10600) was the only other person I considered for my MSC play of the day. If they are both out, Jokic would be matched up against Bender who isn’t athletic enough to keep up with Jokic. If Holmes plays, he isn’t big enough to stop Jokic. If Ayton plays, he is the 3rd worst starting Center in terms of DRPM in the NBA. With Phoenix on the 2nd night of a back-to-back and travelling to Denver, I worry that when Vegas puts out their line/spread, it will be a blow out. I am also confident that, if that happens, if will be on the back of Jokic (and, to a lesser degree Murray (7100) who is in almost as good a spot). I would also have interest in Barton (6100) who will get a lot of action in the 2nd unit, a lot of passes from Jokic and Murray, and finally got back to 30 minutes, putting up 45.25 DKP last game.

· KAT - Another day where there are too many Centers in good spots to count, we can add KAT (10000)* to that list. While this game has a nice total of 222, it has a worrying spread of UTA -10. I will ignore that though, and still be in on this game tonight. While Gobert is a great individual defender, the Jazz, as a whole, are incredibly bad at defending Centers. In fact, this is the only position they are below league average against. This means that, regardless of Teague’s status for tomorrow, if the Wolves are going to keep this close, KAT is going to have to do a lot of heavy lifting. With the crazy number of Centers tomorrow, he should be able to do that at really low ownership.

· Rubio/Donovan - Especially if Rose is starting, one of the best spots to attack the Wolves are at the guard spots. This means the increasing minutes of Rubio (5700) and the insane stretch Donovan (8700) is on should be steering this ship into fantasy point harbor. God I must be getting tired. That is just awful. The point is Rubio is seeing more minutes. If he is supposed to get 30 this game (a possibility), he will easily pay off that price. With Exum and Neto still out, the constant production Donovan has been putting up will also continue tonight. He has put up 53.25 and 61.5 DKP his last 2 games (with Rubio playing limited minutes, but still playing) and his price barely budged. While I don’t expect this game to blow out as bad as the spread may indicate, if it does, Mitchell and, to a lesser extent, Rubio will have a lot to do with that anyway. All aboard! Wait that’s trains not ships. Shit.

Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):

· Heat vs Cavs - 2 of the slowest teams in the NBA, with the lowest total on the slate, and a projected spread of MIA -9, this game has a lot to really dislike tonight. On a 10 game slate, there are far too many other places to look. Nance (5800) is probable to play tonight. I expect him to be limited given his long absence. If he, somehow, has a full run in him, I would love him at that price. Especially with Tristan probably still out.

· Gasol and Conley on the Trading Block - I will start this by saying that Gasol (8300) and Conley (7700) are both in incredible spots tonight, and will not be owned. I will give both of them serious consideration. Gasol has been playing a little injured, but this has just increased the amount of assists he is getting. 3 games ago, against Boston, he got a double-double… with 11 rebounds and 12 assists. He only went 1-10 from the floor and didn’t get a 3x2 cause he only scored 4 points. Last game, against a Hornets squad equally as bad as these Kings against Centers, Gasol looked back to normal, going 8-15 for 22 points with 17 rebounds and 10 assists, good for 68.25 DKP. While Conley will get you a pretty consistent amount of points, he should be more able to catch his ceiling against the Kings. The one problem I have is this: the Grizzlies have said they plan on trading Gasol and Conley if they can. While this may light a fire under both, I also worry that the team will be extra cautious with them, for fear they injure themselves and lose all trade value. I don’t expect them to be fully rested, but I worry they will have their minutes limited in order to protect their health just in case. And I will be concerned about that from here until the deadline.

· Kings spreading it out - I just can’t trust anyone on the Kings right now. My favorite play would be Bogdan (5600)who is underpriced and has shown he will get run no matter what. The problem is Shumpert should be back. Additionally, Fox and Bjelica are both off the injury report, meaning everyone will, again, get between 16-30 minutes and be able to provide decent value, but not the ceiling you need. ESPECIALLY, against the slow, defense minded Grizzlies squad.

· Hornets vs Bucks - I am wary of this game. Vegas has it at one of the highest totals on the slate so far, at 228.5, but also a hefty spread of MIL -11 that I think may be too low. The Hornets look pretty bad lately. They have lost 8 of their last 10 (and 9 of their last 11) against some pretty awful teams like the Wizards and Cavs. The Bucks, on the other hand, are tied for first in the Eastern conference. The only piece the Hornets have that could keep it close is Kemba (8100) but Bledsoe and the great D the Bucks have should be able to mitigate him and then crush them. This means I will hard time paying up for Giannis (10700), but I acknowledge he is far underpriced here and he is still someone everyone should consider tonight. My favorite piece on either team is BroLo (5500). Since Zeller went out, the Hornets have been abysmal against Centers. Both Biyombo and Hernangomez are at the bottom of the DRPM rankings. And the Hornets are also weak against 3s! Well, wouldn’t you know it, that is BroLo’s specialty this year. Believe it or not, Lopez has led the Bucks with 7.1 attempts/game over the last month. (Middleton is 2nd with 6.4, and Brogdon is 3rd with 4.6). Lopez also leads in 3PM the last month, with 36 (Middleton is 2nd with 23, Snell and Brogdon are tied for 3rd with 20). Lopez saw his price rise due to his 16p/10r/5b 41.5 DKP performance against DeAndre Jordan. He will have a much easier time tonight, and he should get a lot of 3s, blow out or not.

Situations to monitor:

· Mudiay QUESTIONABLE - The first thing I would say is, beware anyone that plays for Fizdale. They are all GPP only. The only Knick in the top 50 in usage over the last couple weeks is Mudiay (5300). He injured his shoulder, so we have to wait to see after shootaround if there is any news. If not, this game tips off 30 minutes after lock, so we need to stay alert. Should he play, he would probably be the best play on this team. If he doesn’t, I wouldn’t think it point chasing to go after Trier (4700) or take a gamble on Hardaway (5900) getting some shots to hit tonight,

· CP3 QUESTIONABLE - The biggest news that broke yesterday had nothing to do with yesterday’s slate. CP3 was declared Questionable for tonight’s game. He has been out so long that, even if he gets some run, he should be severely limited. But it would still have a ripple effect across this Rockets roster. Harden (13800) has scored his last 263 points in a row without any of them being assisted by anyone. That would surely change as CP3 would handle the ball whenever he gets his minutes. It also would make it absolutely impossible to pay for Harden. Gordon (5300), Faried (5300), and Tucker (5000) should be in fine spots regardless.

· Ayton and Holmes QUESTIONABLE - If either Ayton (6600) or Holmes (4100) plays, I would have a ton of interest in them (assuming no minutes limits). If both sit, Bender (4600) will, once again, be forced into some big minutes against Jokic and he should be able to reach value pretty easily. With Warren also OUT, Booker (7900) will command a lion’s share of this offense and, if you think this game stays close, I strongly suggest getting either Booker, Oubre (5600) or Jackson (5500) in your lineup today.

Alright, I had to deal with some stuff with my sister-in-law so I didn’t get to this until way too late tonight for a 10 game slate. My wife is heading up there tomorrow, so I hope to provide some kind of update then for everyone that has been sharing their kindness and thoughts and prayers. My wife going up means that I will be by myself most of the day, trying not to think of this whole thing. Which means I will do a Good Chalk/Bad Chalk and address any breaking news/ownership projection issues. Either way, best of luck tonight everyone!


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