Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!
Yesterday In Review:
My Lineup- -
Name | Price | DKP | Value | Proj Own | Real Own | Diff
D’Angelo | 8600 | 20.75 | 2.4x | 16.2%| 32.1%| 15.9!!!
Tyler Johnson | 4200 | 24 | 5.7x | 1%| 18%| 17!!!!
Giannis | 10700 | 68.5 | 6.4x | 25.2%| 37.5%| 12.3!!!!
Plumlee | 3900 | 33.75 | 8.7x | 72.8%| 72%| 0.8
KAT | 10000 | 60.5 | 6.1x | 12.4%| 22.9%| 10.5!!!
Napier | 3600 | 25 | 6.9x | 52.5%| 52%| 0.5
Favors | 5000 | 23 | 4.6x | 4.9%| 4.6%| 0.3
Bayless | 3600 | 32.5 | 9.0x | 0.1%| 27.7%| 27.6!!!
**Total** | 49600 | 288 | 5.806x| | |
***My Best Lineup***
Name | Price | DKP
Bayless | 3600 | 32.5
Wiggins | 5700 | 42.75
Giannis | 10700 | 68.5
Portis | 5700 | 38
Montrezl | 6700 | 16
Napier | 3600 | 25
Plumlee | 3900 | 33.75
KAT | 10000 | 60.5
**Total** | 49990 | 317.00
Total Entries: 67.75
Winnings: 60.50
***Best Possible Lineup-***
Name | Price | DKP
LouWill | 6700 | 66.5
Wiggins | 5700 | 42.75
Cedi Osman | 4800 | 45
Vonleh | 5900 | 49.75
Ed Davis | 3800 | 45
Doncic | 8400 | 59.5
Bjelica | 3900 | 44.75
Giannis | 10700 | 68.5
**Total** | 49900 | 421.75
Analysis-
So, my wife was going to visit my sister in law and her family this weekend (all the news is bad, and I just try to write to not think about it. So I apologize for not updating you all. But it's just getting too close to the end for me to want to think about it anymore than I have to). She had a ton of driving to do, and I had a lot of today to kill, so I decided to try something different- today I decided to max enter the $1 contest on DK. I had been playing around with that FC optimizer (I didn’t like the RG one), and I thought it would be fun to take the time today to learn about it, in the case I want to do it in the future. I will say I was heaviest on Russell, Tyler Johnson, Bayless, Plumlee, Portis, Giannis, Towns, and Napier. If I had to pick one lineup to define how I played this slate, that would be about it (with an edit, obviously, since it wouldn’t fit. I’d have gone down to Okobo from Napier.) It was fun, but difficult. I might try it again tomorrow depending on how I like the slate and everything. If I do keep doing this it will only be in the dollar or 25 cent one. I will try to explain who I was on the most of and what my best lineup was.
However, I still did my main lineup and entered it around like usual. Russell was my first lock today. Boy that almost cost me everything didn’t it? He got his 3rd foul a couple seconds into the 2nd quarter and just couldn’t get it going. I was over on him tonight, and I still managed to be in the cash cause of the other picks. I was fine with the punts everyone was on - Napier and Plumlee but I also locked Tyler Johnson and Bayless in all my lineups from the get go. This left me 3 spots that moved around a lot in the other lineups. In my main one, I didn’t want to go with Harden due to the chalk ownership, so I went with Giannis, who I thought should get 60 DKP regardless of the blow out risk. I also liked Towns in case Gobert was out (and if Rose and Teague were out). KAT got into serious foul trouble and had like nothing at the half but really came alive in the 2nd half like Frampton and saved me tonight. With my third slot, I went with Favors. I was going to like him a lot more if Gobert was out, but I thought he was safe tonight, and had the chance to give a decent ceiling if Gobert managed to be limited and he had to play some extra Center tonight.
The Daily Slate:
Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day
Matchup Specific Ceiling is a “quasi-metric” I use to make decisions. If you haven’t read my explanation, please check out this link right here
The explanation begins in the “injury/lineup news” section about halfway down.
In this section, I will pick the player who has fewest factors preventing him from reaching his ceiling, considering spread, pace, O/U, defense, usage, teammate health, and other factors.
Jokic - This was a really tough decision. I had to choose between Jokic (10700), Ben Simmons, and Darren Collison. While I really love all 3 of these guys today (and I will get into it later) I have to go with Jokic for a few reasons. First, if I were to ask you who on this slate do you think was playing at the fastest pace in the last couple weeks, you would probably look, see the Hawks and just assume it was them. But obviously it’s not them because I set that up and because I am talking about Jokic. Which means the answer is the Sixers. Over their last 15 games, the Sixers are 3rd in the NBA (the Hawks are 6th and Warriors are 7th). With Denver 27th in pace, this is, by far, the biggest pace up spot on the slate. The Nugs are gonna get a whole bunch of extra possessions and Jokic is the one who with benefit the most off of that for several reasons. First, Embiid is out tonight (as is Butler). This means the Sixers front court is going to be comprised of Mike Muscala who is 6’11” and has a good DRPM rating for a PF but 1- he defends backups which is different than the stars, 2- Jokic can’t really be defended, 3- He is playing Center, If you move his DRPM rating to C, he would be 24th. Other than Muscala, the Sixers have Amir Johnson as the primary backup at C. He is 6 foot 7 and one of the worst defenders in the NBA. The only other person they have that really mans the PF/C position is Jonah Bolden who is 6’10”, but will be starting at PF as it is. I don’t know if they bring up Patton from the G league or what, but they are going to be really thin. And that is going to lead to a huge game for Jokic. On top of that, Denver is coming off a hard-fought front end of a back-to-back. While they are home both games and I don’t expect it to matter too much, when you have someone like Jokic on the sidelines all game, resting and ready to play as much as he needs to tonight, you have made the best of a bad situation. Simmons and Brewer are also good defenders, meaning I would assume Murray and Barton will have a harder time than Jokic who should get to do whatever he wants today. There are only 2 people who I think have a good shot at the 3x2 bonus today, and I would think, while Jokic might be slightly less likely to get there than Simmons, he is still gonna be right on the door. In this matchup, he might be there by halftime.
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Darren Collison - With Oladipo the VICtim of a gruesome injury (sorry), I would assume many people are going to be talking about how Tyreke (5200) has great usage this year, will step into the starting lineup, and is the natural choice to eat up Oladipo’s production. I think that is bullshit. They’ve had plenty of chance to play Tyreke the entire season and they haven’t, with Oladipo playing or not. With Oladipo off the floor, Tyreke gets about 1 DKPPM. If he gets his 25-27 minutes he will just about reach value. And these numbers are skewed as it is, since this gauges his usage with Oladipo off the court, but for the most part he sees action with Oladipo off the court when he is running the second unit and he gets to do whatever he wants. He won’t get the same liberties starting next to Collison, Bojan, and Turner. If you dig a little deeper, Bogdanovic (5400), Tyreke, Myles Turner (6900), Thad Young (5800), and Collison (5600) have been on the court together for 194 minutes this year. In those situations, Turner has 1.24 DKPPM, Collison has 1.09, Bojan has 0.99, Tyreke has 0.86, and Thad Young has 0.79. So now let’s talk about minutes. I think it’s safe to assume Turner will get 35 minutes if this game stays close. Multiply that by 1.24 and you get 43.4. This would be about 6.3x value. Next, Collison got 32 last game when Oladipo went down. If we assume the same, that comes out to 34.88, which would be 6.2x value. You can do the rest of the math if you want. What is clear is that Turner and Collison are clearly the best two choices here. But those numbers don’t consider matchup. Turner will be matched up with one of the best defensive Centers in the NBA in Gasol, in a position Memphis guards well. Collison, on the other hand, will be faced up against Conley, who is the worst defender on this Grizzlies team, in one of the worst positions for the Grizzlies to defend. So, put that all together and, while I like Myles Turner, Collison is one of the best plays of the day today and I will be locking him in. I don’t care about the pace down spot. I don’t care about the low O/U. This is one of the only games projected to stay close and we need to take advantage of that. One of the other major beneficiaries of the Oladipo injury are the backup guards on the Pacers, namely Joseph (4100) and Aaron Holiday (3300) who are both exceptional punts tonight (even though Holiday close to no run last game, so be careful).
Kyrie - Unlike their opponents tonight, the Celtics have a very clear pecking order. That is: Kyrie (9300) first, then everyone else. This is backed up by the fact that the next closest Celtic in price to Kyrie is Horford (5700) who is 3600 cheaper. In a 4 game slate, we have to take what we can (especially when a couple of the teams are gross). What we have here, is the game with the highest total on the slate (229.5) while also having the closest spread (GS -2). We also have Kyrie at 25th in usage and no other Celtic anywhere near him. We also have the 20th paced Celtics in a nice pace up spot against the 7th ranked Warriors. We also have seen mediocre defense from Curry this year and very poor defense from Klay. If this game stays close, and I think it will, the easiest path for that to happen, for multiple reasons, is through Kyrie. With no one over 10700, and there already a bunch of value, we should be able to get a couple stars in there. Given the game environment, I don’t know how Kyrie isn’t one of them tonight.
Shorthanded Sixers - Embiid has already been declared out, Butler had to go to a specialist in LA for his wrist so, while he is technically considered doubtful, he realistically won’t play, Chandler has been declared out already, Fultz, Zaire Smith, and Patton, who are available on DK, should also all be out (though it is possible they recall Patton from the G-league for tonight). This leaves 11 people left for tonight’s game. One of them is Haywood Highsmith who, I swear to god, is a real person. Another is Shake Milton who, again, is totally a real person and not another stoner joke paired with Highsmith. So, basically, we should be looking at a 9 man rotation tonight (with Shake getting 10 or so minutes). The first, and biggest target here, is Simmons (9600) who should be able to sleepwalk to a double-double tonight with easy upside for a 3x2. I do expect McConnell (4000) to do a lion’s share of ballhandling in this game, though, so be aware. Generally when Butler is out, they like to move McConnell to the Point for large chunks of the game, and they move Simmons to the 3 or 4. Another major beneficiary tonight is JJ Redick (5600) who sees a huge uptick in usage and PPM with Embiid and Butler off the court. On top of that, Denver has been weakest against the perimeter (although I expect that will change when Harris and Barton get back into the swing of things. While I wouldn’t be surprised if they start TJ at PG, right now the rest of the starting lineup is projected to be Brewer (3800) at SF who will be locked into major minutes. But the real issue here, and one I addressed when talking about Jokic earlier, is the front court. The Sixers will have Muscala (4200), Amir (3600), and Bolden (4000) and no one else. That means Bolden and Muscala starting at PF and C respectively, but that all 3 of these guys should be in line for huge minutes, as well as the fact we may need to see a lot of TJ at the point and Simmons playing the 4. Additionally, just to round it off, Shamet (3500) and Korkmaz (3300) will both get backup run and, if it comes to it, blow out run. Right now this game has a nice O/U of 226, but Vegas sees Denver winning by 9.
Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):
Memphis Grizzlies - So, one of the biggest benefits to growing up in an era before the internet is I learned how to read a box score. And the box score from yesterday’s Grizzlies game makes me hesitant to go here today. We need to first understand that the Grizzlies were at home favorites here. They were projected to win this game, against a fast, defensively deficient Kings squad, by the score of 108.25 to 106.25. The final score was a Kings win by the score of 99-96. Yuck. Conley (7100) led the team in minutes with 34. He was one of only 2 Grizzlies to get to the 30 minute mark tonight. This was, again, a close home game the Grizzlies had a chance of winning. He had been getting to 36 and 37 minutes lately. I don’t know if this was just an aberration (it wasn’t foul trouble), or they were limiting his minutes (either due to the back-to-back or to keep him healthy for a trade). He was also doing fairly well against the Kings getting 16p/9a/6r/2s/1b/4to, so extra run could have been a deciding factor here. Similarly, Gasol (7700) could have made a difference tonight. He had 4 fouls, so I can understand if they limited him due to foul issues, but 26 minutes still seems like a low haul. Digging into it, he got his 2nd foul 6 minutes into the 1st quarter and he didn’t come back into the game until 6:38 was left in the 2nd. The same thing seemed to have happened in the 3rd without a foul issue, so it had nothing to do with that. They just limited him. Again, if it was due to the back-to-back or to conserve him, I just don’t know. But I expressed concern about this yesterday, and I will keep being concerned until the trade deadline is over. The only Grizzlies I would take any chances on are punts here, meaning I wouldn’t mind Casspi (3400) and, basically, no one else at all.
Golden State TooManyCooks - It’s pretty bad here with this all-star team. If you pay attention to the usage numbers people have over 15 game stretches, you can already see the effect it is having on the superstars on this team. Curry (9100) and Durant (9200), who were both sitting around the top 10 in usage before Cousins (6200) came back, have fallen to 15th and 27th respectively. 27th! That puts Durant right behind Emmanuel Mudiay and right ahead of Jamal Murray! Come on! Klay (5900) who was in the mid-30s is now about to fall out of the top 50 at 47th. This broth taste terrible. I’ve already talked about how this is the game of the day, easily. The 229.5 total is the highest and the GS -2 spread is the closest. But, unlike Boston, GS is in a pace down spot. On top of that, again, the usage is just too hard to pin down to even two people. Odds are the winning lineup tonight is going to have to one or two people from this team. The question is how do you decide. Kyrie, Smart, and Horford are all at least good Defenders. Tatum is better than average. And Marcus Morris, who will be starting at PF, is 3rd worst in the NBA in DRPM. This would mean I give the only edge I can find to Dray (6300). He isn’t priced too high to kill you. He should be able to get 6x against Morris. And he should get some guaranteed minutes. As always, if you want to go down to Looney (4000) as a punt I am a big, big fan.
Hawks vs Blazers - While we shouldn’t really consider blowouts when we are dealing with a 4 game slate, the Blazers are at home and should be able to embarrass the Hawks tonight. Vegas has this at the 2nd highest O/U tonight, at 228.5, but also at the largest spread, with POR -10.5. While Portland is in a nice pace up spot, the Hawks have been playing slightly slower lately, so this isn’t as much of a difference as it was a few weeks ago. Additionally, for most of the season, the Hawks have been below average against every position. But over the last month, they have been above average against both PF and C. They are still terrible against PG, though, meaning if you are looking at the Blazers, you should start with Lillard (8900) instead of the similarly priced Nurkic (8600). I don’t know if I will be able to get to Lillard with Jokic, Simmons, and Kyrie out there, but if this game stays close he could give any of them a run for their money, especially against the 2nd worst defender in the NBA, Trae Young. I also want to bring your attention to Jake Layman (3500). He is the definition of a GPP play, but, if you’ve been paying attention he has been putting up some great games lately. His last game, he got 33 minutes, going 9-15 (2-6 from 3) with 8r/3a/2b/1s and 20 real points which was good for 40 DKP. The game before that he shot 2-7 and only got 4p/3r/1a on the way to 9.25 DKP. But the three games before that, Layman put up 20.75, 23.25, and 29.25 DKP. Even with everyone healthy, they are trusting Layman to come in and take shots and ownership and price have not caught up with that yet. On the other side, even though CJ is one of the worst defenders in the NBA the Blazers are above average against every position. I will, however, prioritize taking whoever will line up against CJ meaning that Huerter (5100), fresh off his injury, will be my favorite play on the Hawks tonight. I also want to point out that Collins (8000) can put up an easy 50 DKP every night and they still aren’t pricing him high enough. Additionally, Prince (5000) has been getting back up to the 30 minute range. He got 30 DKP last game in 28 minutes. If he is back to normal, he is one of the most underpriced people on this slate today. Get on him before he’s back up in the 6000s.
Situations to monitor:
NOTHING YET - As far as I can see… there is no one with an undetermined status that matters right now. I’m sure this will change tomorrow, but that’s what new articles are for
Until tomorrow’s GC/BC, I will leave you to think about how you want to attack this slate. I think I know what I want to do, but it’s gonna make this a real interesting evening. Either way, best of luck to you all tonight!!
A RARE EDIT
I meant to give my information for the Spurs/Pelicans game in case y’all wanted to do the Showdown, since I put this together anyway:
Vegas Info: N/A yet. Not released by anyone. Waiting on Injury news.
Pace over last 15 games: Pelicans - 11th, Spurs - 23rd
Injury News - SAS - DeRozan OUT, Bertans OUT, LMA QUESTIONABLE
Injury News - NO - E’Twaun Moore PLAYING, Julius Randle QUESTIONABLE, Mirotic OUT, Brow OUT
DvP/DKPPG - SAS - Weakest against PG, Above Average against every other position
DvP/DKPPG - NO - Weakest against PG. Then Weak against C. Above Average against every other position
Top 50 Usage Players: Brow (8), LMA (19), DeRozan (30), Randle (35), Jrue (42)
Players in the top 10 in DRPM at their position: White (7-PG), Jrue (10-PG) Gay (5-SF), Brow (2-PF)
Players in the Bottom 5 in DRPM at their position: Randle (WORST-C), LMA (5th Worst-C)