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bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for NBA January 20th + (Full Analysis of NFL Slate!)

Updated: Jan 21, 2019


Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!


I posted this in my Good Chalk/Bad Chalk, but I wanted to post it again in case anyone didn’t see it:

Before I get into the nitty gritty of basketball stuff, I want to say thank you to everyone for your good vibes and thoughts and prayers and kind words. It is a tough time, and I really do feel all that love. I couldn’t respond to all of you personally, cause I wanted to get this article done, but know that I read and upvoted (or liked on twitter) every single one, and I will carry of them with me in my heart. This is a really wonderful community, filled with really wonderful people, and I couldn’t be any more grateful for all of you, and your collective kindnesses. I will ask though, I will be ok. I am going to have it hard, like most of us when we lose someone we love. But please send those thoughts and prayers and vibes to her family and kids. They are the ones who need it a hell of a lot more than me.

I couldn’t mean it any more strongly when I say I love all of you, truly, and I wish I could better put into words how much it really meant to me to wake up to 30+ messages from people offering their love and support. Just truly beautiful. So thank you all, again. From the bottom of my (and my family’s) heart.


Let’s get down to business. We ain’t got no time to fuck around. What is this?

Yesterday In Review:

The Bathrobe vs. Pocket_Saand Head-To-Head Series:

He is Cash. I am GPP. Let’s keep track of how a daily head-to-head stack up. OOOOOOOOOH baby! That’s 2 in a row!!

283.00-243.75

Overall Record; 2-3


My Lineup- - This is the one lineup I enter into GPPs

NamePriceDKPValueProj OwnReal OwnDiffKyrie940045.754.9x15%15.7%0.7Harden13400785.8x55.6%55.9%0.3Brown4300286.5x6.3%24.3%18!!Isaac370018.55x38.1%36.1%2Zizic460030.56.6x17.8%25.8%8Holiday380018.254.8x5.9%19.1%13.2!!Rabb310030.259.8x0.6%3.1%2.5Collins770033.754.4x4.2%5.3%1.1Total500002835.66x

Entry Fees: 36.75

Winnings: 61.85


Best Possible Lineup- - Using the free lineup rewind tool on fantasycruncher, I find the highest possible lineup that could have been played.

NamePriceDKPWade480037.5Danny Green450047.25Huerter530040.5Kuzma750051JaVale McGee460036Waiters350032.5Eric Gordon590043.75Harden1340078Total49500366.5


Analysis-

I built around Harden today, as I knew I was going to. Then the question settled in: who do I build around. I had a Kuzma/Luka lineup that I was really happy for. But something just told me I needed to go with Kyrie/Collins stack. I thought Collins would be able to attack the Celtics at their weakest spot, and keep this game close by himself. And then the ball would be in Kyrie’s court (pun not intended). Then I wanted Brown as a punt from that game, as someone who gets a lot of bench run, especially with no Hayward. He has shot the ball a bunch so far and just keeps banging it off the rim. Sucks. I also locked in Isaac with Gordon out, since he was in such a great spot and I thought the game had a chance to blow out, which would give him extra run against backups. I then had 2 spots left. After Gasol and Tristan were listed out within minutes of each other, I wanted to get to Rabb, who was 3100 and would get a lot of the backup and blowout run, and that left me enough to get Zizic in as well. It all pieced together very well, and yet i wasn’t as happy as I was with the Kuzma/Doncic lineup. Eventually Doncic got ejected so, even if Kuzma goes absolutely nuts, Kyrie/Collins should be able to outpace that. Now it’s just a question of how the punts perform. So far, badly. But we will see! The night is still early.


The Daily Slate:

With the 3 game slate, let’s break things down a little differently this time.

Hornets vs Pacers - Over/Under - 219, Spread - IND -7.5

Stats and Misc

Slower, Pace-Neutral Matchup for both teams: Hornets are 22nd, Pacers 19th.

Both Teams are coming off a back-to-back. Charlotte had an early game and travelled from home. Indiana was home both games. Therefore this shouldn’t really factor into production, but presents a question about limiting minutes.

Other than Zeller, there is no injury news.

Hornets is a weaker than average D overall. They are weakest against PF and Cs (this is backed up by the fact Biyombo and Hernangomez are 2 of the worst defensive Centers in the NBA). They are also below league average against PGs and SGs.

Pacers are above average D overall. They are below league average against SG and PF.

The following players are top 50 in Usage: Kemba (8th), Oladipo (26th), Tyreke (32nd), Tony Parker (44th).

The following players are top 10 in DRPM: Collison (10th-PG), Oladipo (5th-SG), Thad Young (10th-PF), Myles (5th-C).


Players

Kemba (8100) - Kemba seems to finally be out of his slump. He had another fine day yesterday putting up 21p/8r/3a/2s/1b. All this while still only shooting 9-22. He has seen a notable decrease in production not just because he was cold though, but because the Centers for the Hornets are really bad, and Kemba has been having problems running the team without Zeller in the 5 hole. I expect him to see the defense of Oladipo here, so I will look to spend salary elsewhere.


Oladipo (7800) - He is still mired in a huge slump. I don’t know if it’s an injury he’s trying to play through or what, but I just can’t go there when he’s producing like someone priced in the low 6000s. If you want to take the chance against a mediocre Hornets D, I wouldn’t stop you. But I would have no Oladipo tonight.


Turner (6800)/Sabonis (6500) - If you look above, the Hornets are, by far, weakest against bigs. This means I have a lot of interest in both this guys. Sabonis is finally priced like a backup again. Turner only had to play 24 minutes yesterday, so he should be able to play a full complement of minutes tonight if need be, and if he does, he should eat against whoever the Hornets throw out there.


Jeremy Lamb (5400) - With Oladipo on Kemba, Collison, who is a fine defender in his own right, will be on Lamb. I still would classify this as a much easier matchup for Lamb than Kemba. I would have a lot of interest in him as a mid priced play, assuming he gets his normal run of 30+ minutes and sees extra shooting with Kemba slightly tempered.


Bojan Bogdanovic (5300) - Bojan had one of those terrible shooting games that happens sometimes to shooters. Even though he was in the best spot against the Mavs perimeter D, he only went 2-10 including 0-4 from 3. He only managed 9 points, but still got 7 rebounds. This will take people off him (especially people that played him today, of which I was almost one). But, as long as Oladipo is cold, I will still go here. Hopefully tomorrow his shot falls and he gets 5x his price in raw points.


Hernangomez (4400)/Biyombo (3800) - if you wanna take a punt tomorrow on one of the 2 Centers the Hornets will play tomorrow, I understand. They are in a tough matchup against the Pacers, and Turner specifically, who is 5th in DRPM for Centers, but at those prices, if either of them is the one to get the majority of minutes, they should pay off that price easily.


Suns vs Wolves - O/U - 227, Spread - MIN -10.5

Stats and Misc

Faster, Pace-Neutral Matchup. Suns are 10th in pace and the Wolves are 14th.

Suns are on the 2nd night of a back-to-back but, like the Hornets, the game was early and they had plenty of time to travel and get some sleep

Ayton and Holmes were both forced to leave yesterday’s game and are Questionable, with Crawford who missed the game. On the Wolves side, RoCo is out, as is Tyus Jones.

PHX is one of the worst Ds in the NBA. According to DvP and DKPPG they are weakest against PG, then C, then SGs. They have no one in the top 10 in DRPM but 3 starters in the bottom 5 with Booker the 2nd worst SG, Warren the 4th worst SF, and Ayton the 3rd worst C.

MIN is also a weak D, though not as bad as PHX. With Covington out, they are significantly weaker and he has no return date as of right now. RoCo is their only player in the top 10 in DRPM, and they have 2 starters in the bottom 5- Wiggins is the 3rd worst SF and Towns is the 5th worst C.

The following players are top 50 in Usage: Booker (3rd), Rose (33rd), KAT (35th)

The following players are top 10 in DRPM: NONE


Players

KAT (10600) - KAT would almost certainly be my MSC play of the day if it wasn’t a 3 gamer. Even though we don’t know the status of the Suns Centers, it won’t matter (except that if Ayton is out, this game is more likely to blow out). KAT will either deal with Ayton, one of the worst defenders in the NBA, or he will have to deal with Bender or Quincy Acy. Either way, he should have a field day tomorrow. He is significantly more expensive than the next closest player on the slate, and he may be absolute chalk, but it’s not unwarranted. He should EASILY be one of the top performers tonight.


Booker (8300) - Booker has had all minutes limitations lifted. And that’s a good thing, cause even though his game blew out yesterday, he still played 37 minutes and put up 32 points and 11 assists. He had more assists than the rest of his team combined. So if you get a ballhandling Booker, taking 20+ shots a game, and playing upper 30s minutes even in blowouts… I mean, what’s not to love? You think Teague or Rose are going to be able to stop him?? Tyus and RoCo may be their best 2 defenders and they are out. I am gonna ride with Booker tonight in hopes he keeps this game close by himself.


Ayton (7300)/Holmes (3800) - As I discussed earlier, KAT is one of the worst defenders in the NBA as well. Both Ayton and Holmes got pulled from the game yesterday and couldn’t return due to injury. If may have had to do with the fact it was a blow out. There seemed to be no news after the game that indicated what the severity of the injuries were, or anything more than they are both questionable for tonight. If Ayton plays, he’s an awesome play tonight. If he doesn’t and Holmes does, he’s my play of the day (and if Ayton and Holmes both play, I will still be heavy on Holmes here). If both manage to miss, the C spot for Phoenix will be manned by a combination of Quincy Acy (3000) who got almost 10 minutes yesterday, and Bender (3000) who got 3. I would expect a similar type of ratio tomorrow in case both other guys are out. With KAT on the other side, and Taj Gibson at the 4, I can’t imagine they will be able to go small, meaning these 2 guys would be forced into heavy minutes.


Wiggins (6600) - He had a few good games, but those were freak occurrences. Things like everyone else being out. Or Teague getting ejected. If a normal game happens, and that is what I assume, Wiggins, and his 3 straight games under 30 DKP, can take a hard pass.


Rose (6400)/Teague (6300) - The Suns, as noted above, are not only terrible against Centers, but they are also horrible against guards. Melton is bad and Booker is horrible. With Tyus out, both should be able to push for 30 minutes, Rose gets extra bump for going against the 2nd unit and having some blow out run.


Oubre (5700) - Oubre has been becoming a more significant part of the Suns offense lately and his price increase demonstrates that. However, he keeps providing solid production in the 30s DKP, and will get run in any game situation. I don’t know how more people aren’t on him tonight.


Mikal Bridges (4000) - Bridges is always one of my favorite punt plays. He will take 8 shots, and has the potential to get rebounds, assists, blocks and steals every game. People like that have a really safe floor, especially when they are going to play 30 minutes, regardless of game situation. If his shots fall tonight, he could get close to 30 DKP again, and, again, no one will be on him.


Clippers vs Spurs - O/U and Spread NOT OUT YET

Stats and Misc

Clippers (6th in pace) will be in a pace down environment in SA against the Spurs (23rd in pace). Obviously, like Chuck Taylor, the converse of that is also true.

LouWill and Gallo are DOUBTFUL for the Clippers. DeRozan is PROBABLE, but he has said he feels fine and will definitely play.

Clippers are one of the worst Ds in the NBA, even though no one is in the bottom 5 in DRPM. Over the last month, no one has given up as many points to any position as the Clippers have to Centers (translation: that’s fucking bad). They are also 2nd worst in the NBA in the last month against PFs. Additionally, they are well below league average against PGs

The Spurs have been one of the best defenses the last month and a half or so, after an abysmal start to the year. Over the last month, the only position they are below average against is PG, and that is slight.

The following players are top 50 in usage: LouWill (3rd), DeRozan (23rd), and LMA (42nd)

The following players are top 10 in DRPM: White (7th-PG), Gay (6th-SF)


Players

LMA (8500) - If you look above, you see that the Clippers are weakest against Cs and 2nd weakest against PFs in the NBA. LMA will be playing either position (mainly C with everyone healthy tomorrow). This makes him instantly one of my favorite plays of the day. We don’t know what the O/U will be, or if this game is expected to blow out (and with the injuries I am worried about that), but this is one of those situations that LMA is in such a good spot that it doesn’t matter. You have to run with it anyway. He has the skill to put up 60+ DKP today against these Clippers, and I don’t expect enough people will be on him.


DeRozan (8400) - I expect DeRozan, who is nursing an injury, to hit the ground running, trying to get back in the swing of things after taking questions about slumping recently. Still, given how much his price is, and given he is battling a hurt ankle (and not, say, the flu), he may have serious problems pushing off and getting the drive he needs to be as successful as he is used to. With LMA in such a good spot, I will spend the money on him today while waiting to see how good DeRozan looks.


Tobias Harris (7600) - A couple nights ago, after LouWill was declared out and Gallo went down with his injury, Harris took the game into his hands and produced like someone priced in the 9000s. Well both of those players are going to be out again and, even though the Spurs should focus on him, he is going to be the main play in this offense, and the viability of this game is almost definitely going to come down to how good a game he is having. I will look to have both him and LMA, barring insane ownership or a -15 spread from Vegas.


Montrezl (6900) - While he will probably asked to do more with the injuries to the other players, Montrezl is just someone you can not play if Lou Williams is out (his production craters). And, with LouWill taking a seat tomorrow, so will my interest in Montrezl.


Derrick White (5600) - As much I love White, his hustle, and his D, this price is getting a little too high to pay in GPP where his upside will be limited by DeRozan, Gay, and LMA. He, as the PG, will be in a great spot against the horrible PG defense of the Clippers, and he should be able to get a extra steals against them, but I don’t think I will have the money needed to get here.


Gay (5500) - Somehow Gay is priced under White. I don’t know how that happened. Gay is the 3rd option in this offense. He just put up 36 DKP in 34 minutes, and he can be safely counted on for around 1 DK PPM. If he gets 30+ minutes tomorrow, he will EASILY pay off that price. It’s not even a question.


SGA (4700) - With LouWill out, they just decided to not let SGA sit last game. He played more than 42 minutes, put up 17 shots, and scored 24 real points and 40.25 DKP. His price went up 1100 in one game but, if he is going to shoulder LouWill’s load (who is 3rd in the NBA in usage), he is going to be able to pay this salary off in droves. Even going against the plus D of White, he will see plenty of other defenders if he only sits for 5 minutes a game.


Belinelli (4300) with DeMar back, and his price over 4k, I will not have interest here. He needs to go back to 3800 or lower and I won’t mind punting with him. Now he needs to get over 25 for me to be happy, and it just may not be there for him tonight.


PatBev (3900)/Bradley (3600) - Another function of LouWill missing tonight’s game is a guaranteed buttload of minutes going to PatBev and Bradley. They are both bad PPM producers, but if they both can get in the mid 20s minutes, they have a chance as a GPP dart, to pay off for you and then some.


NOW IT IS FOOTBALL TIME

Stats and Misc

Rams Vs. Saints

O/U: 56.5, NO -3

Previous Game: 45-35, Saints

Kirkwood and Watson OUT for NO.

Projected Ownerships from OWS

Brees 28%, Goff 22%

Kamara 65%, Gurley 61%, Ingram 18%, CJ 2.5%

MT 75%, Woods 38%, Ginn 35%, Cooks 15%, Reynolds 9%, T. Smith 3%, Kirkwood 2.7%, Hodge 0.6%

Everett 15%, Watson 8%, Hill 5%, Higbee 5%

NO 45%, LAR 14%


Projected Ownership from RG

Brees 35%, Goff 20%

Gurley 70%, Kamara 50%, CJ 17%, Ingram 12%, Kelly 1%, Line .25%

MT 67.5%, Woods 35%, Cooks 30%, Ginn 20%, Reynolds 15%, Smith 7.5%, Lewis 1%, Hodge 0.25%

Everett 12.5%, Higbee 7.5%, Hill 0.1%

NO 37.5%, LA 27.5%


DVOA

LA DVOA - Run - 28th, Pass - 9th.

NO DVOA - Run - 3rd, Pass - 22nd.


Pats vs Chiefs

O/U: 56, KC -3

Previous Game: 43-40, Patriots.


Projected Ownership from OWS

Maholmes 34%, Brady 14%

Damien Williams 43%, J. White 27%, Michel 14%, Ware 5%, Burkhead 3%, Darrel Williams 1.4%

Hill 58%, Edelman 57%, Watkins 22%, Hogan 8%, Conley 7%, Dorsett 5%, Robinson 2.5%, Cordarelle 1.5%

Kelce 57%, Gronk 20%, Allen 2.4%, Harris 2.3%

KC 27%, NE 13%


Projected Ownership from RG

Maholmes 30%, Brady 15%

Damien Williams 40%, White 30%, Michel 25%, Burkhead 10%, Ware 2.5%, Darrel Williams 1%

Tyreek 52.5%, Edelman 45%, Watkins 10%, Dorsett 10%, Patterson 10%, Conley 7.5%, Hogan 7.5%, Robinson 2.5%, Dieter 0.25%

Kelce 52%, Gronk 25%, Harris 2.5%, Allen 0.1%

KC 20%, NE 15%


DVOA

KC DVOA- Run- 32nd, Pass- 12th.

NE DVOA- Run- 19th, Pass- 14th.


QB

I don’t think any of the 4 options are terrible, first of all. What concerns me is a few things: The Saints really like running the ball with Kamara and Ingram healthy. While a lot of Kamara production could come with Brees, it isn’t guaranteed. Similarly, the Rams like running it in with Gurley or, now, CJ Anderson. Additionally, the Chiefs are 32nd against the run, which should reduce how much I like Brady. While Damien Williams will have some space to run between red zones, the Patriots are really hard to score on with RBs. That means that I expect a majority of the scoring, including the scoring by Williams, to come from passes. For this reason, I give the edge to Maholmes (6600). I would have expected him to be 50% owned. So, while the fact that anyone could be the best today means I would want his ownership around 25%, it isn’t high enough that I would be off him in GPPs (and ownership doesn’t matter in cash).


RB

The best way to move the ball against the Chiefs is with short passes. As weak as they are against the run, they are equally as bad against defending within 10-15 yards of the line of scrimmage. For this reason, my favorite RB on the day, especially considering his ownership, is James White (5400). He was targeted SEVENTEEN times last week, so on DK, where you get 1 PPR, he is going to be absolutely gold this slate. Additionally, short passes are going to be crucial to stopping the awesome pass rush the Chiefs have, so White is going to get a lot of action, planned or not. Stat wise, the Chiefs gave up the 10th most catches, 3rd most yards, and the most touchdowns to pass catching backs. Part of this is a function of the fact they allow an insanely high completion % on passes on the center and right side of the field within 15 yards of the LoS (thanks to JM for a couple of those stats).

Given the way the Saints have shown they will lean on him in the biggest situations, my second favorite play is Kamara (6500). If you read JM, you know that the Rams general defensive plan is to pass rush, which opens up the field for pass catchers (much like with James White). Last week, however, they identified that the biggest threat was Elliot, so they changed their defensive plan up, scheming to stop Zeke and, effectively, “daring Dak to beat them.” Well, Drew Brees sure as hell isn’t Dak, and I imagine the Rams will stick to their normal defense in this game instead of giving Brees any upper hand. For this reason, the game sets up well for Kamara. Not only will he gets a lion’s share of passing work, he should be able to get the lion’s share of all work. While they tried to have more of a split between him and Ingram in the regular season, the playoffs are different. Last week, Kamara rushed 16 times and was targeted 4. Ingram only rushed 9 and was targeted 2. While Ingram put up 53 yards, one of these was a broken 36 yard run. That means he only got 17 yards on his other 8 rushes. In terms of snap count, Kamara had 51 to Ingram’s 29. In a must win game, they are going to stick to their best pieces, and one of the best in the game is Kamara.


Damien Williams (6400) is in an incredible spot tomorrow, as I stated before, in terms of space he will have to run. That is, until the Chiefs hit the red zone. Then they are going to need to throw. While Williams is certainly going to be used in the pass attack, and I fully expect Williams to clear 100 yards (and get the bonus), I am not convinced he will get a TD tonight. I am also not convinced Ware (4200) won’t get some decent run, given what he has historically given the team, and his success in the past. For this, I would rather have Kamara, and Edelman priced around him.


WR

The Patriots primarily play man defense (though Belichick is always subject to change his game plan, as he often does). Holy shit. Hold the fuck on. First of all, I’ve been spelling Belichick wrong the last decade plus. Second, spellcheck KNEW I spelled Belichick wrong and told me it was wrong!? Wow! That is famous. Sorry, back to football. We were talking about the man coverage heavy Pats. This opens up increased potential for explosive plays if something goes wrong. Even though the Pats are effective, ranking 31st this season against passes of over 20 yards (allowing a 26% success rate there) they saw the highest % of passes of over 20 yards (more than 15% of all passes against them was for over 20 yards), a function of the man D. Tyreek Hill (7700) is a whole other animal, though, and he can make a man D go wrong real quick. He proved it in week 7 when, on only 12 targets, he put up 7 catches for 142 yards, and THREE touchdowns. Additionally, as I referred to when talking about Maholmes, the Pats allowed 80.5% of all TDs scored against them to be by the pass, 2nd worst in the NFL. When you mix all this with the fact that the Pats have had incredible success stopping Kelce (in 2 career games combined he got 5 receptions for 40 yards and then 5 receptions for 61 yards with no TDs), I am even more intrigued by Hill. I am also fine with pivoting down to Watkins (4000) if you are worried that the Pats will sell out to stop Hill (which, even if they do, I will take a shot on his talent).


For the same reason I like James White, my 2nd favorite WR is Edelman (6600). They are going to have to throw a lot of short passes to move the ball down the field. That is the place where White and Edelman live, and I will be all over both of them.


My 3rd favorite play today is Ted Ginn (4300). I didn’t really check ownership last week (I find it less important in 4 game slates then in 2). Apparently, last week was Ted Ginn chalk week for some reason and he bombed. That doesn’t change the fact that, before I found this out, I loved Ginn in this spot. He is the clear #3 option here (behind MT and Kamara), and he will have a ton of chances in this high scoring game against the Rams. Plus, with both Kirkwood and Watson out, the amount of options the Saints have will be down two decent pieces. While 60%+ of lineups will have MT, I don’t think it’s crazy at all that he finishes behind Tyreek in terms of raw points, and Ginn in terms of value on his team. A lot of people are going to look at the last time these two teams met up. While relevant, that doesn’t mean that lessons weren’t learned by the teams. Last time these guys played, Aqib Talib was injured and didn’t see the field. This meant that MT saw the defense of Marcus Peters who he absolutely embarrassed to the tune of 211 yards and a TD. With Talib back, MT should have a tougher time and this should mean an easier time for Ginn. As of right now, I have MT in my flex, so it’s not like I think he’s a bad play today. I just really like the spot for Ginn and will be prioritizing him in this spot today.


As we can see, the Saints are really, really good against the run and really bad against the pass (DK has them 32nd, but they are not that bad). This means a couple things; First, a better spot for Gurley then CJ in the running game. But also that the 3 Rams WRs are all in great spots. Since Kupp went down, the Rams have really focused on the run, but this is a matchup that should force them to keep the ball in the air, whether they want to or not. My favorite is Cooks (5300) who is cheaper, and riskier, but lines up well against a Saints weakness. Like the Pats, the Saints give up a lot of 20+ yard passes, meaning Cooks has a good chance, like Hill, of popping off a giant play and breaking this slate wide open. Woods (5700) is the safer play, and has a great chance of popping off a good game and a TD. Reynolds (4200) would be a great punt play, as well, if the Rams were forced to throw more than usual, given he is the 4th option (if you include Gurley). You want as many passes as possible in order for targets to trickle down the line that far.


At the lower end, I can understand playing Dorsett (3900) in this matchup, who should see a lot of short passes too. With Kirkwood out, Tre Smith (3600) also enters the discussion as a low priced punt play today since he will be the WR playing the 3 WR sets now, and could soak up Kirkwood’s red zone looks too.


TE

Call me crazy, but this is where I am looking to really buck the field. I already explained in my write up of Tyreek why Kelce is a risky play against NE, given his history and his price of 7100. That’s the 4th most expensive FLEX play overall.


Gronk (4800) is my 2nd favorite play today and where I may end up when all is said and done. He has been playing poorly lately, but he has been playing poorly against teams that were really good against TEs. To once again take some stats from JM- the Chiefs defense has “allowed the fifth most catches, the sixth most yards, and the most touchdowns to the tight end position.” This isn’t just a good spot for Gronk, it’s one of the best. He looks like a shell of a Gronk, though, so I understand if you are wary.


With Ben Watson and Kirkwood being listed as out, my favorite TE is play is the one that no one will be on: Josh Hill (2500). This is purely a GPP play, mind you. You are hoping for 4-5 receptions for 50 yards or so and a TD. But, given the other options Brees will have available, and the good Corners of the Rams that might be able to take the WRs away in the end zone, I wouldn’t be shocked, at all, if Hill and Kamara are responsible for the first couple TDs the Saints score. Plus, this opens up your entire roster. You can now play anyone you want. And all you have to do is not play Kelce and hope Gronk stays a husk of himself.


Def

Both these games are gonna be fucking nuts. So I am going to take the lowest owned defense that happens to be the lowest priced, and going against the team I expect to throw it the most into man coverage (where they can get some picks if Maholmes is off). So give me all of the Pats (2100) D. If all of them are in bad spots, I might as well take the one going against the least runs that will, again, let you play whoever you want tonight.


Ok, that is my longest write up ever. Over 30k characters. At least it took my mind off everything! Hope you all enjoy this. I really like all these games, and this should be a REALLY fun day of sports. I can wait to share it with you all.

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