Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!
Yesterday In Review:
***My Lineup-*** -
Name | Price | DKP | Value | Proj Own | Real Own | Diff
Westbrook | 11300 | 64 | 5.7x | 31.7%| 43.1%| 11.4!!!
Stan Johnson | 3000 | 11.75 | 3.9x | 2%| 1.6%| 0.4
PG13 | 10600 | 38.75 | 3.7x | 22.6%| 18%| 4.6
O’Quinn | 3000 | 24 | 8x | 27.7%| 29.1%| 1.4
Diallo | 3100 | 36.5 | 11.8x | 39.6%| 43.5%| 3.9
Hield | 6500 | 50.25 | 7.7x | 5%| 8.1%| 3.1
Sabonis | 5700 | 40.5 | 7.1x | 18.1%| 37.7%| 19.6!! (damn)
Portis | 6200 | 15 | 2.4x | 7.2%| 12.4%| 5.2
**Total** | 49400 | 280.75 | 5.683x| | |
***Best Possible Lineup-*** - [Using the free lineup rewind tool on fantasycruncher](https://www.fantasycruncher.com/lineup-rewind/draftkings/NBA/), I find the highest possible lineup that could have been played.
Name | Price | DKP
Tyler Johnson | 4100 | 49.25
Hield | 6500 | 50.25
PJ Tucker | 3600 | 46
Bryant | 4300 | 55
Kevin Love | 6500 | 54
Kyrie | 9100 | 64.25
Lauri | 8000 | 61.25
CP3 | 7600 | 59.75
**Total** | 49700 | 439.75
***OR***
Name | Price | DKP
Tyler Johnson | 4100 | 49.25
DLo | 8200 | 58.75
PJ Tucker | 3600 | 46
Bryant | 4300 | 55
Dedmon | 5000 | 45.5
Kyrie | 9100 | 64.25
Lauri | 8000 | 61.25
CP3 | 7600 | 59.75
**Total** | 49900 | 439.75
Analysis-
I was worried that Harden would be out, so I got off that game. With all the news, I locked in 3 super punts in Diallo, O’Quinn, and Stan Johnson (who I liked to get minutes, and then I’d bet on the production there). I also locked in Russ and PG13, since I didn’t think people would be playing them together. I also picked Hield, who was my favorite play on the Kings, as I wrote about yesterday. That gave me 2 spots. I went with Sabonis, who I loved against Washington. And for my last spot, I had a lot of room to work with, and a ton of options. I thought Portis would be a good way to go, given the new starting job and his usage.
The Daily Slate:
Well, today sucks. There’s only 3 games. One showdown game in the afternoon and a TWOGAMESLATE at night. Neither of them are great. The lowest spread is -8.5. If you need a break from playing, today would be a GREAT day to recharge your batteries. I am going to make this a pretty bare bones article, given how bad everything is, and how little there is to even talk about. If there are other questions, I will be happy to answer them, of course. And I am also working with a new chat type app that will allow instant access to a chat feature for me. I should have more information on that in the coming days. Let’s get down to business.
Magic vs Raptors SHOWDOWN
O/U: 219, TOR -9.5
Pace Rankings: ORL - 16th/TOR - 14th
Injury News: Fultz OUT (3 more games)
Defensive Information - Orlando: Allows 213.5 DKPPG (BEST IN NBA) - Weak Against PG/SG (Best in the NBA against C)
Defensive Information - Toronto: Allows 221.3 DKPPG (22nd Highest) - Weak Against PG/PF (Best in the NBA Against SF)
Players in the top 50 in Usage: Kawhi (19th), Vucevic (22nd), T. Ross (44th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Lowry (2nd - PG), Green (1st - SG), Siakam (6th - PF), Isaac (8th - PF), Vuc (6th - C), Gasol (7th - C)
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: Ibaka (3rd Worst - C)
TWOGAMESLATE
Clippers vs Nuggets
Stats and Stuff
O/U: 232, DEN -9
Pace Rankings: LAC - 13th/DEN - 22nd
Injury News: Chandler OUT, Mbah a Moute OUT, Lyles OUT, Porter OUT
Defensive Information - Clippers - 228.4 DKPPG (12th Highest) - Weak Against PG/C
Defensive Information - Nuggets - 226.4 DKPPG (17th Highest) - Weak Against SG (Changes with Harris Back)
Players in the top 50 in Usage: LouWill (2nd), Jokic (14th)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: PatBev (6th - PG), Harris (6th - SG), Millsap (4th - PF)
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: LouWill (2nd Worst - SG)
Players
While they have been slightly better against Centers since the trade deadline, the Clippers are still about as bad as it gets at that position. For that reason, Jokic (10200) has to be the overwhelming play of the day today. He should reach, like, 80% ownership though, so if you are playing GPP you might want to consider looking elsewhere. I’m not sure if I can, given the rest of these matchups today. He is 2100 more expensive than the next player on the slate, and he’s still at least 1000 too cheap. He is one of the best players in the NBA, is the best chance today of a 3x2 bonus, and the only person playing with a really slate breaking ceiling here. The Clippers are just about as weak against PF as they are against C, meaning we can also count on both Millsap (6100) and Plumlee (5000) (Millsap more), though I wouldn’t play both in the same lineup.
The guard situation on Denver, though, is much more tricky. We have Murray (6300), Monte Morris (4100), Isaiah Thomas (3800), Beasley (4700), Harris (4900), and Barton (5100). Ideally we want people who are going to get as many minutes as possible. In the last game, which was a bit of a blowout, IT got the least amount of minutes among all these players with 16 and Murray got the most with 33. Barton got 28, Beasley 27, Morris 19, and Harris 21. I don’t know how you can trust anyone here, though I would take a chance on Murray before anyone else.
On the Clippers side, no one is priced high enough to scare us off. The 5 starters are SGA (4000), PatBev (4500), Shamet (4200), Gallo (6700), and Zubac (4200). The last game should give us a good view into who we can play tonight. Gallo was, by far, the starter that got the most usage. In his 31 minutes, he got 23p/8r/1a/1b/3s on his way to 41.5 DKP and his price fell 100. I would expect that kind of production to continue tonight against the Nuggets. The other players on this team who seem to be guaranteed minutes are PatBev and Shamet, both of who passed 30 minutes last game, as well as key bench pieces LouWill (7000) and Montrezl (6600) who got 32 and 26 minutes, respectively. I would expect LouWill to have a tougher matchup against Harris, but that never stopped him from shooting before. Given DEN’s height, I do like Montrezl a lot here. I also think PatBev is a good bet to get all of those stats close to a 3x2 again, which should help him pay off that low salary. If Shamet gets 30+ minutes, at that price, I don’t know how you don’t consider him, though I can understand if you want to be more cautious until you see if he starts getting any usage this game.
In the last game, Zubac only got 21 minutes and SGA only got 15. I will have a much harder time trusting them. Zubac has been playing limited minutes since he came over, but SGA’s minutes are more concerning. Much like with Denver, LAC has a glut of players at that position- with SGA, PatBev, Shamet, LouWill, Wallace (3200), Temple (3400) all fighting for minutes. Since LouWill will definitely get them, as should PatBev and, seemingly, Shamet, I find it hard to really trust anyone else on the guard/wing. Similarly, Green (3400) is going to be fighting Montrezl, Gallo, and Zubac for his minutes, meaning he should only wind up in the teens every game. He’s cheap enough to take a chance on a 2 game slate, especially if you think this is the game to blow out. But it’s just hard to trust anyone when there are too many players for the minutes that can be played.
Spurs vs Knicks
Stats and Stuff
O/U: 221.5, SAS -8.5
Pace Rankings: SAS - 21st/NYK - 23rd
Injury News: White PROBABLE, LMA PROBABLE, DeAndre Jordan DOUBTFUL, Frank N OUT
Defensive Information - Spurs - 244.5 DKPPG (4th Highest) - Worst in the NBA Against PG (Changes with White back). Also weak against SG and C
Defensive Information - Knicks - 226.9 DKPPG (15th Highest) - Weak Against PG then C
Players in the top 50 in Usage: LMA (20th), DeRozan (27th), DSJ (29th - changes with Mudiay back)
Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: White (3rd - PG), DeRozan (8th - SG), Gay (8th - SF), Jordan (5th - C)
Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: Knox (WORST IN NBA - SF), LMA (4th Worst - C)
Players
So I know it’s only a 2 game slate, but god damn this is going to be a bloodbath. The Knicks aren’t trying at all, and they are going to be without Jordan, their best defensive player. Mudiay (5400) came back last game and split the PG minutes with DSJ (6800) 26 min to 22. The pricing has obviously not caught up with the fact that Mudiay is going to see more minutes than DSJ now, for some reason. Even though his price came up 800 from last game, it’s still not as high as it was before the injury, even though he is getting as many minutes. Assuming he comes off the bench and is able to avoid White for the most part, he is the first player on the Knicks I have interest in (though I am still worried about the blow out here limiting his minutes). With Kadeem Allen back in the G-League, the Knicks are going to have 3 players left to play SG, Dotson (4200), Trier (3700), both of whom are getting enough run to take a chance on today, as well as John Jenkins (3100). Jenkins has had 1 game where got over 10 minutes with the Knicks, and he put up 23.25 DKP in 26 minutes. In order for him to get that run today, Mudiay or someone would have to get injured or foul out, and this game would have to completely blow out. Don’t let that one game fool you.
The Bigs on the Knicks are really, really interesting, on the other hand. With Jordan out, we should be able to count on Robinson (4600) to be one of the best plays of the day, along with a less-safe Kornet (3900). Both should be locked into pretty heavy minutes, especially if the Knicks want to keep this game close (lol). Vonleh (3900) can’t be counted on for minutes anymore. Hezonja (3500) has fallen out of the rotation. While I expect him to enter it again with Jordan out, I don’t see him as anything but a punt here. I will say this- If the Knicks decide to let Ellenson (3000) get the run in lieu of Hezonja I will be all over giving him a minimum priced chance tomorrow. The Knicks don’t care enough that they could give him 30 minutes tomorrow if they decide he’s going to be the one to enter Jordan’s spot in the rotation.
The last Knick we should mention is Knox (5200) who seems to be the Knick with the best chance to get close to 40 minutes. Plus, he would be the Knick most likely to shoot the ball 20 times tonight. With Jordan out, he should have a slightly easier chance of getting the 10 rebounds he needs for the 2x2 bonus as well. I don’t love him, given his matchup, but I also know that the Knicks don’t care and he will shoot the ball a bunch and get a boatload of minutes. If those shots fall, he will win the night for you.
The Spurs side is a lot easier to breakdown- Knox is one of the worst defenders in the NBA. He will be matched up against DeRozan (8100) all night. He hasn’t had one of his ceiling nights in awhile, but a matchup against Knox and the Knicks could break the slump. I would also expect him to be far less owned than he should be, since people will lock Jokic in and then try to take the savings they can get from LMA (7500). Speaking of which, LMA gets to start against either Robinson or Kornet at C. Either way, he is going to eat tonight. I would take DeRozan for ownership (based on my early assumptions), but LMA for everything else. The only concern I have about either of them is that I don’t expect this game to stay close. The Vegas numbers are inflated toward the Knicks cause they are at home, understandably, but that doesn’t mean that THIS Knicks team is going to try any harder or be any better.
I also want to point out the fact that Gay (5700) is coming off 3 games of 33, 46, and 34.25 DKP and those were against 3 much better teams than the Knicks. People aren’t often on him because they either go up to LMA/DeRozan or down to someone like Belinelli (3800). He should be gold in this matchup. If they try to hide Knox, he would most likely wind up on Gay, making him the play to own here.
The guard situation for SA is as tricky as with the other teams on this slate- White (4800) came back and, while I would normally be all over him in this matchup, he only got 20 minutes last game. It’s possible they are easing him back from his heel injury, and I just can’t trust that here. The Spurs are also going to try to fit Mills (4000), Forbes (4000) and Belinelli in those 2 guard slots, meaning we can’t play any more than 2 of them at any time together. We are going to have to take a guess on which of these are going to get the most minutes. Hopefully we find out early in the day if White is going to be limited and play around that, otherwise we will just have to guess our best and hope he’s the dude that gets the run today. Belinelli is always a good bet for that, though.
Ok. That’s it. That was short. And terrible. Man, what an awful day of basketball. This is the first time in a long, long time I am not super excited about a slate and for good reason. Best of luck everyone! I’ll see you later this evening for another MLB article.