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bathrobeDFS March 7th Breakdown!


Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. I also have a Venmo and Patreon for those that wanna help Operation: Get Me A Laptop. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!

The Daily Slate:

Ah. 2 games. One of which has a spread over 10. What’s the point? I don’t know! All I know is I’m still gonna break it down, but I’m gonna switch to the game by game format to cover everything. Though, let’s be honest, there’s not much to say.


Pacers vs Bucks - TIP OFF: 8pm

Stats and Stuff

O/U - 222, MIL -10.5

Pace Rankings (last 15g): IND 25th, MIL 8th

Injury News: Sabonis OUT, Hill OUT, Sterling Brown OUT, Donte OUT

Defensive Info (last month): IND - 213.6 DKPPG (29th most - minus 4 from pace) - Above Average Against All Positions.

Defensive Info (last month): MIL - 227.3 DKPPG (19th most - minus 11 from pace) - Weakest Against SF

Players in the top 50 in Usage (last 15g): Giannis (7th), Bojan (35th)

Players in the top 10 in DRPM at their position: Bledsoe (6th - PG), Giannis (4th - PF), Myles (3rd - C), BroLo (7th - C)

Players in the bottom 5 in DRPM at their position: NONE


Analysis

Oh boy. A game between a slow team that’s defensively minded, and a fast team that’s defensively minded, with a decent 222 total, but a shitty spread of MIL -10.5. When this happens, and there’s 2 games, you can either: Ignore it and play like normal; play the punts here only; take 7 or 8 plays from the other game; or sit out tonight, watch a movie, and recharge your batteries.


Giannis (11200) is the most expensive play among all the plays on the slate. Given that you can have either Russ or PG13 in what should be a close game, I would rather go there. But, again, he’s an unguardable freak, even though he will face a tough, pace down matchup, against a good D, as well as a good individual matchup against Thad Young. The next most expensive play in this game is Bledsoe (6400) which is a hell of a gap. As much as love Bledsoe in general, this is a matchup against the best PG D in the NBA. Middleton (6300), the 3rd most expensive play from this game, is in a much better spot, lined up at SF against defensive liability Bojan. While I don’t often play Middleton, at the price here, with how tough it will be for Bledsoe and BroLo, I will take a chance on some Middleton today.


Next most expensive is Myles Turner (6200), the most expensive of all the Pacers. His price came up 500 since last game, where he got you 36DKP. If he does that today, it would not even be 6x, and unlike last game’s cake matchup against the Bulls, this time he is going against one of the best Center (and other) defenses in the NBA, with BroLo playing exceptionally well this year. I don’t know if we can expect him to get to 36 minutes and, barring that, I don’t know if I can go there tomorrow.


The next player, as well as the 2 that follow are also all Pacers. Going against one of the best defenses (if not the best defense) in the NBA is a tall task, especially when you are supposed to lose by double digits on the road. So can you pay for Bojan (6000)? Absolutely. As I said before, MIL is weakest against SF. Also they not have one of the highest %s of 3 point shots, but they give up near the most in the NBA as well, which bodes well for Bojan. Next is Collison (5800), can you play him against the stellar defense of Bledsoe? I mean you could but you could also eat glass. I wouldn’t really recommend you do either. Next is Thad Young (5700) who has been playing really well lately, and is in a spot the Bucks have been weak against on the season (though not lately). I don’t know if I’m gonna wind up going there, but he is easily the 2nd best play among the Pacers starters.

DK switches back to the Bucks for a few players, with Brogdon (5600) in a fantastic matchup against Wes Matthews. He’s not someone I normally play with Giannis in, especially not at that price, but you can’t argue how good his spot is here and, if this game does blow out, he should get some extra run with that unit. Next is BroLo (5300) who is going to me matched against the similarly awesome Myles, which means no thank you on BroLo. Mirotic (4800) is next here. I think people are going to be too high on him, but I’m not sure he’s a backup that’s going to get the blow out run. I just think it means he gets a completely unserviceable amount of minutes.


Switching back to IND again, we have Wes Matthews (4300), who, like Bojan, is in a fantastic spot. I would probably prefer Bojan but, given the huge savings you get, I don’t know how you don’t take that and run with Wes anyway. He gets a matchup against a mediocre Brogdon, and can get a bunch of 3s up.


Following this is all the backups who would get the blow out run, namely my real favorites play in this game. Cory Joseph (3800) who is still getting over 20 minutes even with Tyreke back. O’Quinn (3600), who gets all the backup run with Sabonis still out and would get the blowout run as well. Pat Con (3200), who has been playing fantastically lately. Ilyasova (3200), who it is tough to trust, but can get you some insane PPM if he gets matched against the 3rd string Pacers players.


Thunder vs Blazers - TIP OFF: 1030pm

Stats and Stuff

O/U - 233.5, POR -3.5

Pace Rankings (last 15g): POR 17th, OKC 1st

Injury News: Evan Turner OUT

Defensive Info (last month):OKC - 238.6 DKPPG (7th most - minus 6 from pace) - 2nd worst in the NBA against SG

Defensive Info (last month):POR - 216.7 DKPPG (27th most - minus 10 from pace) - Weakest Against SF

Players in the top 50 in Usage (last 15g): Russ (8th), PG13 (13th), Lillard (28th), CJ (38th), Nurkic (48th)

Players in the top 10 in DRPM at their position: PG13 (2nd - SF), Grant (5th - SF), Harkless (10th - SF), Aminu (9th - PF), Nurkic (5th - C)

Players in the bottom 5 in DRPM at their position: NONE


Analysis

So, the Blazers are weakest against SF, and also don’t do so good against PG. Wouldn’t you know that those are the 2 positions manned by Russ (11100) and PG13 (9700), the 2 people who control basically all of the usage on this team. I mean, Russ is in a fine spot, and anyone who tells you otherwise is an idiot. But PG13 is under 10k now, after shaking some rust off in his return game. He still played 38 minutes and took 25 shots. He just went 8-25. And only got 5r and 7a, which is very low for his normal totals. He will be the first person I lock in today, and I don’t think anyone is close, considering price. Westbrook is also fantastic, like I said, and I will see how viable a Russ/PG13 lineup is, seeing as how it’s a 2 game slate.


Lillard (8100) will be seeing the decent, but not fantastic, defense of Russ here. He is still someone that was priced at 10k a couple months ago, so the fact he is close to getting under 8k is mouth watering. Nurkic (6700) is still splitting time with Kanter (4000), so I find it really hard to go there anymore (unless they are playing in another country). With the fact the Thunder are 2nd worst in the NBA against SG lately, I have more interest than normal in CJ (6100). I should just note that, whenever I am on CJ he does terrible. So, this being one of the 3 or 4 days I strongly recommend him, might be a good day to look away. But, if you don’t believe in that kind of crap, play him.


Adams (5900) has a similarly tough matchup against Nurkic, and his usage just isn’t high enough to go with him, even at this discounted price. Schroder (5500) saw his price come up more than 1000 recently due to the increased run he got with PG13 out. While he should be in a fine spot, I just would rather play him at 4300 than 5500. With few options on a TWOGAMESLATE, we may have to wind up going there. Similarly, even though he is too cheap Grant (5100) is in a tough spot against Aminu. He should get a bunch of minutes, and his floor is pretty safe, though. I just don’t know how I would go there in a GPP given his ceiling. And I don’t know why anyone would play cash on a 2 game slate.


Harkless (4200) has been getting some serious minutes and producing lately, but today he will have to contend with PG13, one of the best defenders in the NBA, SF or not. Aminu (3900) will also have to deal with Jerami Grant, one of the better defenders among SFs himself. I think both are cheap enough, and getting enough minutes, that you can take the chance with them, especially tonight. But know it comes with risk.


The only other play I would take a chance on is Rod Hood (3300), who is incredibly risky, but is locked into his 20-25 minutes a game and, 2 games ago, got 36.75 DKP. I mean, 4 games ago he got 0.75 DKP. So know what you are getting. But know that there aren’t many people priced that low, in these 2 games, with that kind of minutes or point upside.

Well, that was quick. Now it’s time to get to work on some baseball articles! Best of luck if you play the two game slate. But really enjoy how wonderful a break is if you choose to take a breather.

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