Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!
The Daily Slate:
Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day
Matchup Specific Ceiling is a “quasi-metric” I use to make decisions. If you haven’t read my explanation, please check out this link right here
The explanation begins in the “injury/lineup news” section about halfway down.
In this section, I will pick the player who has fewest factors preventing him from reaching his ceiling, considering spread, pace, O/U, defense, usage, teammate health, and other factors.
KAT - Normally I hem and haw here. It’s easy for me to pick spots to take advantage of or what you need to be careful of. Picking just ONE person though who you think has the best chance at a ceiling game can be daunting. I take this seriously. I don’t just rush through it to save time. If it takes me an hour to decide, it takes me an hour. Sometimes I go even longer diving into stuff. But anyone who doesn’t look at this slate and say KAT (10000) isn’t one of the top options is insane. Everything else makes me lean towards KAT over the other MANY, MANY options (that should also act to suppress ownership). First, over their last few games, KAT’s price has risen from 9700. But the longer trend is that his price has come down, which is insane. He was close to 11k a few weeks ago. And now we can get him for 10k, the 6th most expensive on the slate. His recent batch of games had him going against the Pels (with AD), Magic, Grizzlies, Nuggets, Grizzlies, Jazz, and Jazz. That is incredible stretch of going against slow teams, great defenders, or both. There wasn’t one easy matchup there, and he only failed to reach value as many times as he got more than 60 DKP (twice). No one in the NBA is in a better spot than “Center against the Clippers”. Seriously. The Clippers give up more PPG to the Center than any team gives up to any position. (And they are almost as bad against PF, which means no one can help). I mean, Zubac is a bad defender, and that is all they got. They have been dreadful all year, and they dropped the only C they had with a decent DRPM. Zubac’s isn’t terrible, but we have to consider the fact he has not been a starter all year, he played limited minutes, and the quality of opponent he saw wasn’t as high as a starter’s. We will see Zubac’s metrics match his talent soon enough. The one area of concern I have here is the spread. I know this is going to be a fast paced game (Clippers have been top 10 in pace all season) with not a lot of D. But the Wolves are much better than the Clippers and they are at home. Right now Vegas hasn’t given us a total or spread, so be wary. I’m not going to care though. I might be concerned, but it won’t change anything. If you look at the season, KAT and Rose are normally the Usage leaders on the Wolves. With Rose out recently, Wiggins (6500) has taken up the mantle of 2nd fiddle. But, regardless of who he’s on the floor with, KAT is the lead dog here, ironically enough. Right now, Teague is Probable and Rose is Questionable. Both went through a full practice, so I expect both to play. With Teague starting and Rose coming off the bench, I don’t think Rose’s usage will change anything in regards to how we approach KAT. I think Teague’s presence helps instead of hurts KAT’s production. If Rose plays, I will not be as interested in Wiggins, though. Honestly, if this game stays close, I wouldn’t be surprised if KAT can get past 70 DKP. There are certainly no barriers up to prevent him from doing so. Editor’s Note- The O/U spread was just released- 227.5, MIN -4.5. Hello KAT!
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Knicks v. Cavs - Normally when I see either of these teams, or a sub 210 total, I am filled with apprehension. But not here. This is going to be a gold mine. First, how fucking horrible do you have to be to be underdogs to this years Cavs team??? I mean, I think home court swings the O/U about 3 points, so on a neutral court, the Knicks would be projected to win by 1.5. But still. To even have it be that close is an embarrassment. But there is plenty to love here. Except, ironically, Love who may not get more than 10 minutes if he plays. The most expensive player, therefore, is DSJ (6400) who will be close to 8k soon. He’s matched up against Sexton, the 2nd worst defender in the NBA. He is gonna keep getting run, and keep smashing this price. Get on that. Jordan (5800) hasn’t played 30 minutes yet as a Knick, but has topped 30 DKP (including a 38) in his last couple games even in limited minutes. He will see Zizic, who is awful, and the best defender they have. I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets close to 30 min again and pushes 40 DKP just the same. If Knox (5000) is going to shoot the ball 20+ times (he will), he should be one of the easiest plays you make today. They aren’t going to really put up a lot of resistance here. I would be more surprised if Knox doesn’t put up 25 real points than if he does. I should also point out Mitch Robinson (4100) has been getting all the C minutes Jordan hasn’t, and he has been smashing it. His last 3 games he has put up 29.75, 26, and 31 DKP. Additionally, after only letting him play 10-15 minutes the couple games before last, they finally let Kadeem Allen (3700) get 28 minutes last game, and he put up 33 DKP. He’s not the most talented player, but he hustles and if they give him run, he’ll crush value again. On the Cavs side, it is the only 3 people they have worth anything right now- Nance (5900), Clarkson (5200), and Sexton (4900), all of whom have been smashing their value lately as well. All have safe minutes. All have high enough usage they’re production should be assured. I expect people will not be on this game as much as they should be, and you should be ready to take advantage. I will also point out that Chriss (3000) and Knight (3000) are also both still min priced for some reason. Knight is a little more risky, but Chriss has gotten 24 and 23 minutes in his 2 games here, with 23 and 16.25 DKP. At minimum price, I will take that every time. Knight only has the one game so far, but he got 12 min and 13.5 DKP. If they increase his role (and decrease Delly’s) he could easily get 15-18 minutes and pay off another minimum salary.
Drummond and Blake - We have seen both of these guys, in worse matchups, priced at 10k each. For some reason, against a Wizards team that is hemorrhaging points to PFs and Cs like they were the Clippers, we have both Blake (9000) and Drummond (8900) far, far too underpriced. Bryant is not a good defender and he will get demolished by Drummond if they were to start him. Portis is, statistically, one of the worst defenders in basketball, so, if he starts, that’s even better for Drummond. There is no good option. Similarly, with Jeff Green Questionable with a hip injury, Blake will either get a hobbled Green or a Jabari Parker that is as statistically bad at D as Portis. And then what option do they have? A terrible Ariza moving to the 4?? Crushed. Sam Dekker? Lol. Detroit is 28th in pace and Washington is 8th. There is just nothing here to dislike from these two, except them cutting into each other’s production. But there’s plenty of fish in this river for both them to eat.
D’Angelo - With Dinwiddie out, D’Angelo (7800) should be priced over 8k every game without question. I know he’s going against a tough defensive team. I know it is projected to blow out. But I also know none of these has stopped Russell before, and there’s a reason the Nets are doing so well this year- they don’t care about if they are supposed to win or not, and they play their asses off every game. I expect the same here. When everyone on the team is going against tough defenders, much like when they are all going against terrible defenders, a majority of the production is going to flow through the players with the highest usage. That means D-Lo, who is top ten in the NBA in usage, is going to be the safest bet from the Nets to reach value, and someone I honestly think pushes 50DKP tonight. LeVert is still limited severely and I don’t think they hurt each other as much as people say, having watched them play. I will add I have a good feeling this will be an Ed Davis (3600) game, given the size of the Raptors. He is going to be one of my favorite punts on the day, today. I just wish he had multiple position eligibility.
DK’s refusal to price Doncic at 10k - I don’t know what they don’t understand here- Doncic (8700) is a serious triple double threat every single game, and has been EASILY getting to 50 DKP Every. Single. Game (except one he got injured). This is just ludicrous pricing from DK. I’m sure going against the D of CP3 is a negative, but I also know he is like 4 feet taller than CP3, so it won’t matter THAT much. I have also been talking in every article about Hardaway (5000) being the new 2nd option on this team, and how his price would be at 7k soon. He put up 34 DKP last game and his price fell 100. He is going to shoot this game. A lot. And he gets to match up against Eric Gordon who is one of the worst defenders in the NBA. Period. I think Powell (4800) is also a good play. He will be matched up against Houston’s backup C (Nene or Tucker) and, either way, he should push 30 DKP today. Especially if this game does blow out. I would also take a stab at Burke (3900) and DFS (4100) in tourneys. Both have shown how risky they are, but also shown you the upside they can give you in the minutes they will get. And they should get blow out minutes as well.
Underpriced Clippers - I already talked about how much I like this game when talking about KAT. The crazy thing is that the most expensive Clipper is LouWill (6800), who is far too cheap and provides you with easy 50 DKP upside. If this game stays close (and it should) he gets the 4th quarter run, and he is top 10 in the NBA in usage. AND people don’t play him cause he isn’t a starter. His tag team partner Montrezl (6700) is also in a good spot, though I don’t like him as much as other people. Gallo (6000) got back up to 30 minutes and put up almost 40 DKP last game. I expect him to go past both marks here. He is another one of the most underpriced people on this slate. Given the size of the Wolves, I also expect Zubac (4000) to get 30 minutes, making him a near lock for 30 DKP as well. He put up 28.25 DKP in 23 minutes against a MUCH better Celtics team. They also gave Shamet (3900) 27 minutes last game, filling a void they had, and he put up 28 DKP.
CJ McCollum - Last time the Blazers played, I pointed out the wonderful streak the CJ had been on. I pointed out how the Mavs had been weakest against the perimeter, and this gave CJ a great shot to continue the streak. Be careful, though, I warned. I have a supernatural ability to make CJ play awful whenever I recommend him. So, of course, he put up like 26 DKP. I am going to spit in the face of fate and hope it’s not the wind. While I am concerned CJ will see some PG13 on D, he will mostly be lined up against whoever the Thunder have playing SG at that point (probably Ferguson). I also think that, without Jerami Grant, the Thunder are more likely to move PG13 to PF and play Diallo or something at SF, meaning CJ would be a lot safer. Plus, Lillard will see Russ and Nurkic will see Adams no matter what. Either way, if the Blazers want to keep it close against one of the best teams in the NBA, they are going to need CJ (7100) to step up today. In an incredible pace up spot, I really think he can. I also like Layman (4200) and Hood (4000) as potential punts for the same reason.
Russ and PG13 - Jerami Grant missing tonight’s game means that someone like Diallo (3100) will move into the starting lineup. He won’t get any of Grant’s usage though. That will just be split back up and fed to Russ (11400), who should get his 10th consecutive 3x2, and PG13 (10300) who has 60+ DKP in 5 of his last 10 games. Both these guys are in amazing spots tonight with Grant out. There’s really no need to say much more. “Play these world-class superstars” isn’t exactly breaking news. As always, Schroder (4700) is underpriced for his bench role and his ceiling.
Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):
Raptors - Let’s be clear here, I love Kawhi (9100) here. Love him. Would seriously consider him for the MSC play today if not for KAT. He should get you 50 DKP today, easily, and they just keep pricing him at 9k instead of 10k. The Nets are playing at the FASTEST PACE in the NBA over the last few weeks. You really couldn’t ask for a better spot here. So what do we need to be careful of? The addition of Gasol (7000). Last game he got about 19 minutes and Ibaka (6100) got the other 29. Against the Nets, I want to lock in a Center, but I can’t imagine those numbers don’t balance out more this game, with both probably getting closer to 24. I wouldn’t say you can’t take a chance on either, but it is certainly a huge risk. I am also concerned with how this will affect Siakam (6500). I don’t think it will, but he only put up 25 DKP against a terrible Knicks squad last game, so it’s certainly something to look out for. Brooklyn’s weakness against Centers also makes them weak against players like Siakam, so, if you are too worried about C, and less worried here, I would go with Siakam. But I want to see how they run these 3 together more than 1 game before I make any rules up for them.
Bucks vs Bulls - Yeah, I know. Don’t predict blowouts. Look at the Heat/Warriors game last night (which I fell asleep at the start of. Damn medicine). But when the best team in basketball is going against one of the worst, and when that team has been resting people and still blowing teams out, I have a hard time thinking that won’t also happen here. If you insist, Giannis (11300) is the obvious play from the Bucks, with BroLo (5100) having a fun matchup against his brother that he should be able to exploit. On the other side, the Bucks have the best D in the NBA as well. The only place they have been weak is against PF. That means if I am going to go anywhere on the Bulls, it will be with a still underpriced Markkanen (7900). But, again, I most certainly won’t.
Rockets - While this game is projected to blow out, that is not my concern here. My concern is Harden (12000) hurt his shoulder last game. Even though he is considered probable, there is no reason they should be risking him here. I expect him to go out and give as much as he always does, but I also expect the Rockets to be monitoring the fuck out of both him and his minutes. Expect that, if he so much as grimaces, he will be pulled and kept out until after the all-star break just to be safe. I love the other people on this team, though. CP3 (6900) was 7100 2 games ago and put up 40.5 DKP. Then his price fell 100 and he put up 49.5 DKP. So, of course, his price falls again. And now he gets to go against a weak Dallas backcourt, with Doncic and Brunson not exactly a dynamic defensive duo. I said a couple games ago, he will be over 8k soon. This is one of the biggest pricing mistakes on the slate, so make sure you get him in there if you can. I also LOVE Faried (6800) here. His price is also too low. He is priced that his floor is still reaching value meaning that, if he has a ceiling game, you are going to make some serious money. And, against a Dallas team that only has Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell to man the C position, I think Faried, and his 30+ minutes, are going to put a serious hurting on this team, especially if they try to limit Harden’s touches. If you want to go a little further with the injured Harden narrative, you would have to play Gordon (4600) who would be one of the biggest beneficiaries (if not the biggest) of Harden being pulled/limited.
Heat vs Nuggets - A tired Heat team, after a heartbreaking loss last night to the best team in the West, had to hop on a plane and fly to Denver to get ready to face the 2nd best team in the West tonight. On top of that, there is just too much other stuff to not like here- The Heat and the Nuggets are both at the bottom of the pace rankings. It’s the 2nd lowest total on the slate, at 213, with a spread that indicates Vegas thinks this will blow out, DEN -10.5. On top of being slow, both try to be defensively minded as well. And, as far as the Heat goes, good luck predicting who they are going to play and how much. Personally, given the production Whiteside had yesterday, I find it really hard to believe they wouldn’t have had a better chance to win if he had played more than 22 fucking minutes. But I digress. The point is, they have a lot of bodies, and none of them are stand outs, especially against Denver. If you are going to go anywhere, attack with guards here, meaning Winslow (5700), Richardson (6300) and Waiters (4100). I don’t want to attack the Nuggets with bigs, and the Heat don’t have the bodies to do it anyway. On the other side of the ball, the pace and everything make me wary of paying up for Jokic (10400), but his price is just far too cheap for the production he gives you every night, especially with Harris still out Millsap unlikely to play (considering he was severely limited at practice yesterday). I do love Plumlee (5800) here. If Millsap does actually miss (he is technically listed as QUESTIONABLE), he is priced such that his value and his floor here are pretty close to one another. He could get you 50 DKP, especially if this blows out and he becomes the lead play. The Heat are, by far, weakest against PF. Millsap being out also means another Lyles (4000) game, who is somehow still priced that low considering his last few games have seen him get 31, 24.25, 34, and 28 DKP. With Harris out, we should also consider Beasley (5300) in tourneys. He isn’t the safest but he has shown his upside with Harris out in the past.
Situations to monitor:
Jeff Green QUESTIONABLE - With Markieff injured/shipped off, Green plays a ton of minutes and has a hugely important role on this team. If he is out, we will see a ton of minutes for both Portis (6300) and Jabari (5600). Both are underpriced if Green was to play, but they are smash plays if Green is out. Similarly, we would see a bunch of minutes from Dekker (3300) who would become a viable punt play. Regardless of the Green situation, Beal (8800)and Sato (5900) are both really underpriced for this matchup, especially Sato who gets to take on R Jax, who is one of the worst defenders in the NBA. He let us down against an even worse Sexton a few games ago, though, so know he is still a risky GPP play and not a solid cash lock.
Myles Turner QUESTIONABLE - One of the biggest pieces of news on the day. He hurt his knee last game, colliding with Chriss, but managed to come back and play the rest of the game. I expect him to be able to play tonight, but given how bad the Hornets are, I wouldn’t be surprised if they kept him out for rest purposes anyway. For some reason, he is not showing up on DK as Questionable, but he was listed as questionable by the team yesterday. If Myles (6600) plays, he is priced fairly. If he is out, we have to immediately lock in Sabonis (5700) and give serious thought to Kyle O’Quinn (3000). This also affects the Hornets. If Myles plays, I will have interest in Lamb (5300)from the Hornets, due to Kemba’s tough matchup. If Myles is out, I think Zeller (4500) could push 30 DKP again, easily, in the 27 or so minutes he will get (that he is not correctly priced for). I should also point out, Bojan (5800)has been playing amazingly well without Oladipo and he will be priced near 7000 soon. So, once again, take advantage of the pricing error there.
Alright, I’ll keep the outro short since I wanna get this published - I have had 3 people in the last couple days thank me for helping them win 4-5 figures. I am blown away and I hope we can all keep it up today! Let’s have someone else make a couple grand today, alright!? Best of luck today everyone!!!