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bathrobeDFS NBA Breakdown for January 30th!


Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!


Yesterday In Review:

My Single-Entry Lineup- -

Name | Price | DKP

Satoransky | 6000 | 20.75

Snell | 3000 | 19.5

Giannis | 10700 | 58.5

Blake | 9300 | 39.25

Noel | 3600 | 33.75

Frank Jackson | 3400 | 21.25

Beasley | 3800 |

Embiid | 10200 |

**Total** | 50000 |


Analysis-

So, I know that I have the support of you all and, honestly, I can’t express how much that means to me. I know I’ve said that a bunch, but it’s true. And I’m one of those people that believes you can’t say kind things often enough. I love you or thank you or you mean something to me isn’t a one time only deal. You can say it as often as you want. So tomorrow will be a travel day. Thursday will be the funeral and then I have to manage to drive myself back. I can’t really drive so well cause of the pain disability. It goes right down the leg that I have to use to do the pedals, so I am not looking forward to the next 48 hours for even more reasons than the obvious. If you saw my Quick Analysis article today, I hope to be able to do the same thing for Friday’s slate. Otherwise, I hope to get back to writing Friday night for Saturday. If I need one more day to get past the horrifying pain I will be in Friday, I will post something about it on Twitter. The one thing I love is I know there will still be a ton of great content here!! Make sure you all go and check out the other people putting in such hard work to help you all!


The first person I locked in was Embiid. Other than that, everything seemed to be up in the air for me today. There were a lot of people I liked (Sato and Rondo especially), but, as soon as Stephen Adams was declared questionable, I knew it was going to come down to that. So I waited and waited. If he was out, I was going to lock in Noel with Embiid as my 2 Centers. Then, on top of all the other injuries, Elfrid on the Shelfrid was declared out so I had to lock Frank Jackson in there. With the injury news to the Bucks, I thought it would be sneaky to get Giannis/Blake stack. I found I could still fit in Beasley, another one of my favorite values, This left me 2 spots and 9000. I wanted an excuse to play Satoransky so, when Snell was declared a starter at 3000, I decided to take the chance and go for it.


The Daily Slate:

730pm lock?? That’s weird.


Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day

Matchup Specific Ceiling is a “quasi-metric” I use to make decisions. If you haven’t read my explanation, please check out this link right here

The explanation begins in the “injury/lineup news” section about halfway down.

In this section, I will pick the player who has fewest factors preventing him from reaching his ceiling, considering spread, pace, O/U, defense, usage, teammate health, and other factors.


Jokic - I honestly don’t know how anyone could look at everyone on this slate and not come to the same conclusion. Jokic (10900) is the MSC play today, and it’s not even close. He has the highest ceiling of any player on the slate to start with, which is a great bonus in and of itself. This game has the 2nd highest O/U on the slate (even with 2 games not posted yet, there’s no way either of them are over this one), with a great 227. The spread kind of sucks, with the Nuggets 8.5 point road favorites, but that’s still close enough I don’t consider it (I start factoring it in at -10). DEN is 27th in pace and NO is 9th, meaning they are in the biggest pace up spot on the slate. Jokic will be matched up with Okafor, who is not exactly known for his defense, and his backup Diallo. Randle will probably still be out. This is going to be disgusting for the Pels front court tonight. They were lucky yesterday that the Rockets didn’t have the pieces to exploit that weakness. Well Jokic is that piece. So get ready to enjoy it. On top of all this, Jamal Murray is out which increases Jokic’s assist upside since DEN starts the game without a real PG as it is. Like I said, I can’t imagine every single writer and analyst that looks at this slate will have a different take. There’s plenty of good plays but tonight Jokic is like dandruff shampoo on the top shelf at the supermarket - head and shoulders above all the rest (oooh that is professional joke writing right there. Don’t try that at home, kids). Beasley (4200) and Morris (4500) are also great plays here with Murray out.


Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):


· Kyrie Irving being Doubtful - As we saw last game, there is a LOT of production to go around when Kyrie goes down. And, as weird as it is to say this, the Hornets are a much easier matchup than the Nets. First, the Hornets are really bad at Center defensively. This not only means Horford (7000) is another one of the best plays tonight, it means all the shooters should face less opposition when trying to attack the rim. Rozier (6100) saw his price come up enough to scare some people off him. While I don’t consider him a lock here, I still think he could get you the same 6x he got you last game. Smart (5200) and Brown (4700) are my other favorite plays on this team tonight. They both get a considerable amount of minutes and shots with Kyrie out, and both produce well past this salary, generally speaking (though always be aware of chalk Marcus Smart)


· Jeremy Lamb seeing Rozier instead of Smart - I know this thinking has gotten me in trouble in the past, but it has also gotten me money in the past so I will keep putting it out there. The Celtics are a good defensive team, but they can still be attacked. When Kyrie is on the court with Smart, you have a great defender in Smart and a really good defender in Kyrie on the court. When Rozier starts due to an Irving Injury, the Celtics go down a few notches defensively. Kyrie is 8th overall among PGs in DRPM with a 0.91 rating and Rozier is 27th with a -0.10. 27th is still respectable, but it is a significant drop-off. So, when you are facing Kemba and Jeremy Lamb, who do you have Smart, the great defender, on: Kemba, who is an all star with the 9th highest usage in the NBA, or Lamb, a hit or miss scorer who can just as easily shit the bed as shit on your team. For me, I am going to assume Smart is on Kemba all game tomorrow, and that leaves Lamb (5500) in a really great spot. He has a safe floor and I wouldn’t be surprised if he pushes 35 DKP here in a close game. He’s not the best play, but he is cheap enough and I always like people who can get you 5x their salary just in raw points that night.


· Doncic isn’t 10000 yet - Who on the Knicks is going to stop the kid??? Seriously. He can Bugs Bunny the Knicks today if he wanted to. And yet, Doncic (8800) just remains too cheap for another person who is a legit triple-double threat every night. Even with DSJ back, he just put up a 35p/12r/10a 3x2 against the RAPTORS. WHO ARE GOOD AT D. I mean, come on people.


· Mudiay and Frank N Still Out - I’ve talked several times about how you have to attack Dallas from the 3 point line. That means the only Knick I am interested in tonight is Hardaway (6000). Hardaway averages 7.4 3PA a game this season, Second is Knox (5200) at 4.7 which is a hell of a drop off. If the Knicks want to keep this close (Hint: They Don’t #TryinForZion), they will need to give Hardaway the ball and let him shoot 15 3s tonight. Still, I mean, playing a Knick.. So…


· Wizards Inability to Defend Centers - People who look at game logs without digging into the “why” of it all will look at Turner (6900) underperforming the last couple games, getting under 30 minutes, and pass tonight. But the game before that, Turner got 38 minutes. One of the last 2 games was a murder at the hands of the Warriors, and the other was against Memphis who is murder against Centers. Tonight he gets one of the easier matchups in the NBA against the Wizards. If we gets 35 minutes and produces 1.2 PPM (both of which are conservative), he is at 42 DKP. He could easily pass that tonight. Plus, the Pacers are in a nice pace up spot against the Wizards and will still be without Tyreke (and Oladipo, of course) which will open up usage for other players like Turner. Best thing of all: It’s a Pick ‘Em!! Wooooo!! I also have interest in Holiday (3600) again as a great punt.


· Brad Beal being priced down - When Wall went down, Beal (8700) saw his price skyrocket (for good reason). He ended 2018 at 7900. He spent 1 game at 8600 before going up to 9200. While he dropped down to 8600 for a small stretch, he hasn’t been under 8900 since 1/17. Yesterday, in a matchup against the Cavs, he was 9200 and he scored almost 50 DKP. So, of course, his price goes down 500. The reason: DK automates their pricing. It’s an algorithm. And that algorithm hasn’t adjusted for the post-Oladipo no-Tyreke defense the Pacers will have with Edmond Sumner starting instead. Collison is a fine defender, but he isn’t good enough to handle Beal (and then Sato (6200)will have a chance to redeem last night’s performance). Sumner is Sumner. And Bojan is one of the worst defensive SF in the NBA. They priced down Beal for D that isn’t there. And like I said before, this is a Pick ‘Em tonight.


· KAT’s terrible D - If you were looking for a great GPP play tonight, look no further than Gasol (7800). KAT is one of the worst defensive Centers in the NBA. Gasol has been hit or miss lately. Four games ago, he put up a 22p/17r/10a3x2 en route to 68.25 DKP. Then he had a 25 DKP game against the awful Kings (though it was still a double-double). The game after, against a tough Myles Turner, he only got 30 minutes and still managed 37.75 DKP. Last game, he got back up to 38 minutes, and put up 45.25 DKP. The one thing about that, though, is he was 1 rebound from the 2x2 bonus, which would have put him damn close to 50. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if this game is run through Gasol. It would also behoove me to say that Conley (8000) has also been on fire lately, and makes for an excellent play in his own right.


· Hawks vs. Kings - What’s that you say? Two of the worst defenses in the NBA, who also happen to be two of the fastest paced teams, are playing against each other? Well, yes please. Collins (7900) is a double-double machine on the fritz lately. This is a pretty good get right spot. Trae (7400), on the other hand, as been on fire. And he is in the best spot on the Hawks (in terms of being able to exploit the Kings positional weaknesses). He has almost hit 50 three games in a row. He could easily do that again. Bazemore is questionable. Even if he is limited to 20 minutes, he would take enough away from all the other wing players I would have no interest. I would also take a punt on Dedmon (5600) or Len (4500) but both are priced too high for 2 dudes who are close to splitting minutes (though it means that, right here, I would go with Len, based on price/ownership). On the other side, there seem to be only 4 Kings who are getting enough guaranteed minutes to risk spending on: Fox (7700), Hield (7200) (who is in the best spot on the entire slate, positionally), Bogdan (5500) and Shumpert (3900). The Kings are at home, too, in case you are interesting in going with WCS (6200) who really does have insane Home/Road splits.


· Utah’s inability to defend Centers - We all know Gobert is a good defensive Center, but is he good against other Centers, or is he just good at preventing the shooters (like a Harden) who attack the hole? The numbers seem to show that the latter seems to be more the case lately. Over the last month, Utah isn’t just below league average against Centers, they are 4th worst in the NBA, just behind the Clippers, Suns, and Hornets, and right above the Lakers. Just look at the company they are in. Seriously. Let that soak in, because people do not like playing people against Gobert, but he has holes that can be attacked, and teams are showing that this year. This means I will be all over Nurkic (8300) at what will be infinitesimal ownership. This could easily be one of his 60 DKP games. This game is gonna have a lot of points scored, and it’s supposed to be close. Most of that is going to come from Nurkic (and Lillard (8500) working in tandem, though I don’t like him nearly as much).


· Rubio getting Full Run - Last game Rubio (6000) finally was allowed to get back to 30 minutes. This game he should be able to go past that. Last game, Rubio got 18p/8a/4r/2s and 39.5 DKP. This game he should be able to go past that. And I’ll take more than 40 DKP at 6k all day. I acknowledge Gobert’s talent, but I also acknowledge that Nurkic is a Center who is really good at defending other Centers. So I will look elsewhere. Also Donovan (8400) would only be a GPP play for me. His price hasn’t come down enough for Rubio to be back to normal minutes. Until then, I will only have him better situations.


Situations to be careful of (in no particular order):


· Bulls vs Heat - There is a ton to dislike here. First, lowest O/U on the slate at 206.5. Second, the spread is MIA -11, which concerns me. Third, the Bulls are 26th and the Heat are 29th in pace over their last 15 games. There are some things we have to look out for, though. First, the Bulls are the worst in the NBA in the last month against SG (which makes sense since LaVine is right near the bottom of DRPM rankings). Tyler Johnson and Wade are Questionable. This means that, if both miss, we may finally have a Josh Richardson (6300) game. It would also open up more minutes and production for Ellington (3500) and Waiters (4200). On top of this, D. Jones Jr. sustained a pretty nasty injury and will be out. This means we may finally see James Johnson (4000) get some run. Last game against NY, where Jones got hurt, they let Johnson get 30 minutes. For the Heat, they are above average defensively against every position but one, and they are really bad against that one: PF. That means Hello Lauri Markkanen (6700) day! Or, if you are worried about the blowout, Parker (4100).


Situations to monitor:


· Derrick Rose QUESTIONABLE - Rose (5900) is questionable for this game. He was a non contact participant in practice yesterday, so we should wait for shootaround this morning to see if they let us know anything, or just push it to GTD. The reason this is significant is the only place to attack the Grizzlies, really, is at PG. Teague has been ruled out. Tyus is also out. So if Rose plays and doesn’t have a limit (which would surprise me), he would be exceptional today. If Rose is out, Bayless (5000) will be locked in, again. Since Wiggins (6500) plays some Point as well with everyone else injured, you could consider him as well. But I will just have Bayless (or Rose)


· Pelicans Injury Squad - Ok, So AD will be back on Saturday, which doesn’t help us. Mirotic will be examined in a week, so he’s out. Randle was ruled out pretty early, and, surprisingly, Elfrid on the Shelfrid was ruled out right by game time. Even though they have to travel home, they still have to travel from Houston to NO. That means there will almost definitely be no shootaround tomorrow so we may not know until 630pm whether or not Randle and Elf can play (if they don’t tell us in the post game). Moore should be back (he was only out for rest), although they are monitoring his workload anyway. Regardless, Okafor (6600) will have no choice but to play really, really heavy minutes to try and counter Jokic. He should have a good shot at 50 DKP again (especially if everyone is out again). Jrue (8900) is also in a good enough spot that you have to consider him should everyone else be out. I will also go back to the Miller (3800) well. If Elf is out, Frank Jackson (3400) was playing really well and then, a few minutes into the 2nd half, they subbed him out and he didn’t come back until there was 15 seconds left in the 4th quarter. So I don’t know what happened there, but if they let him get 30 minutes tonight, I will lock him in again.


Ok everyone. It’s been a pleasure doing this the last few weeks. It seems like I’ve been doing this a lot longer, given how much love I have gotten from all of you. It’s really incredible, and I tell my wife, quite often, how awesome you all are, how kind, and how much genuine love you showed my sister-in-law and her family. I will definitely be off until Friday at the earliest. I will still have spotty Twitter access, so feel free to hit me up there cause god knows I’ll want all the distractions I can get.


Best of luck the next couple of days, everyone. Remember to call the people you love and let them know some time this week.

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