Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!
Yesterday In Review:
Name | Price | DKP
Trier | 3600 | 33.25
Schroder | 4300 | 29.75
Marcus Morris | 4700 | 25.5
PG13 | 10400 | 57.5
Siakam | 7000 | 46
Augustin | 4100 | 30.25
Barton | 4900 | 34.25
Westbrook | 11000 | 52
**Total** | 50000 | 308.50
***My Worst Lineup-*** -
Name | Price | DKP
Jerian Grant | 3400 | 1.75
Ross | 5300 | 5
Isaac | 5800 | 31.5
Hayward | 4300 | 16.5
Horford | 6300 | 20.5
Kyrie | 8800 | 21.5
PG13 | 10400 | 57.5
Adams | 5600 | 26.75
**Total** | 49900 | 181
***Best Possible Lineup-*** - [Using the free lineup rewind tool on fantasycruncher](https://www.fantasycruncher.com/lineup-rewind/draftkings/NBA/), I find the highest possible lineup that could have been played.
Name | Price | DKP
Trier | 3600 | 33.25
Fournier | 5800 | 37.25
PG13 | 10400 | 57.5
Ellenson | 3000 | 36.75
Robinson | 5400 | 54
Jaylen Brown | 4600 | 32.5
Siakam | 7000 | 46
Jokic | 10000 | 66.75
**Total** | 49800 | 364
Analysis-
The Daily Slate:
Another 11 game slate. This one is going to be even harder than the one a couple days ago. There’s just too much to break down here, too much too deal with, too many variables, too many moving parts. I will, of course, do my due diligence and cover things the same as always, but just know there are going to be a ton (and I mean ton) of options tonight we are going to be struggling to choose between. Get ready.
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Eric Gordon - Anyone can tell you to play James Harden (11200) or CP3 (8400) today. What people won’t tell you is just how terrible Charlotte is at defending 3s lately. They were already one of the worst at stopping 3 pointers before, but the last few games they have seen them fall from 24th to 26th, but that is an increase of 11.8 3s a game to 13.7. While this does mean Harden is going to have a lot of fun, and we can really count on his production (if fully healthy), what that really tells me is, in conjunction with his matchup against Bridges, I want me some Eric Gordon (4800). Over his last 7 games, he has taken 10, 10, 13, 8, 10, 12, and 11 3s .I expect that to continue, and thensome, today. And for him to be largely ignored on this slate.
Marvin Williams is DOUBTFUL - With this game projected to stay close (Houston is only a 4 point favorite), the Hornets are gonna have a lot of production going around. Unfortunately, for him, Marvin Williams is expected to miss this game which has some real ramifications we can take advantage of. First, MKG (3200) should enter the starting lineup. He is a very low usage player (even lower than Marvin), meaning we can expect a production bump to both Kemba (8500) and Zeller (5800). Additionally, the Hornets will be really thin at PF now, meaning, as far as I can see, we should expect the backup minutes to go to Frank Kaminsky (3000) who is minimum priced and has always been a solid producer. Granted, he hasn’t played, like, at all this season. But this could be the one game we should get him in. I also want to reinforce that I don’t think the 50+ DKP performance for Zeller is a huge fluke. While I don’t expect him to get you 50 again today, he is in a great matchup against Capela, who is one of the worst defenders at the C position. They are gonna need him extra with CP3 on Kemba, and he should be able to step up again.
Trae Young - I mean, I don’t know how much longer I have to tell you folks how much of a difference Young has shown lately in his game. He is a much different, more confident, and more competent player. He was matched up against the D of CP3 last game and still got over 50 DKP. This game he is going to be facing a Wolves team that is weakest against PG, by far. It’s too good a matchup, at too low a price, at an ownership that is insulting given his recent form. I also have to add Collins (7000) will be matched with Saric, one of the worst defenders in the NBA. His price has been falling even though his production has returned his last couple of games. Now would be a great time to get him for a 50 DKP game when everyone else is still wary of playing him. I mentioned how bad the Hornets were at stopped 3s later earlier- well the Wolves are 3rd worst in the NBA. So if you want to take a chance on a Huerter (4100), should his minutes limit be lifted, or a Prince (4500), who will be back from his personal absence, I would strongly recommend that as well.
Beal vs D Lo Shootout - Wanna see a game that will be lightning fast, with poor defense, between two shooters that have been dominating usage on their teams? Both of who are underpriced and will be underowned tonight? Then my god we need to get a stack going of Beal (8900) and D Lo (8700). Beal’s last 7 games? 51, 55.5, 47, 62.5, 51.75, 67.5, 52.25. D Lo’s last 7 games? 48.75, 58.75, 31.5 (blowout), 55.75, 60.25, 36.25 (blowout), 54. These are, easily, two of the best plays today from both a value and points perspective. While I have a lot of games to go, I have a hard time believing I will find a better way to start my lineups than with Beal and D Lo. I mean a 236.5 total. BK only 5 point favorites.Wizards 7th in pace giving up the 4th most DKPGG. Nets 2nd in pace giving up the 6th most DKPPG. It just sets up too well. I must also add that, no matter who starts, I love BOTH Portis (6300) and Bryant (4600). They are priced that both of them could get value here, without question. The Nets are so bad against Centers and the Wizards can take advantage of that with both these dudes. I don’t think I would play both together on an 11 game, but it’s not insane if this was a smaller slate (or in the future in similar matchups). The Wizards are also terrible against the wing shooters, so if you want to take a shot on either Harris (4500) or Crabbe (3800) both are drastically underpriced. Ditto Ed Davis (3500).
Rabb is DOUBTFUL - Oh man. So JJJ is still out. And now Rabb is going to miss a couple of games, most likely. With the Bulls starting a frontcourt of RoLo and Lauri, the Grizzlies are only going to have 2 bigs to counter this, or else they are going to get completely demolished (they will. More on this later.). This means we can expect both JoVal (7400)and Noah (4800) to get a bunch of minutes. JoVal should be priced about 8200 right now, and Noah should be priced over 6k. I imagine both will be popular plays tomorrow, especially people who think there is some kind of revenge narrative with Noah, but, regardless, these two are two of the best plays on the slate. They are going to be needed, and they are both going to be able to produce on their too cheap salaries. When one of the bigs isn’t at PF, it should be manned by Bruno (3200) who isn’t a safe play, but is a punt play if I ever saw one. He may get 25-30 minutes tomorrow. If he can get you even 0.75 PPM, you’re gonna love you some Caboclo.
*Markkanen - I have been pointing out as much as I can, as emphatically as I can, that you need to play bigs against the Grizzlies. Now. Every game. The rest of the season. Prioritize it the way you may have prioritized playing C against the Nets or Clippers. This is a smash. Every. Single. Time. So, not only do you need to give serious consideration to RoLo (4500), who should get you another easy 30 DKP that no one will be on, and not only do you have to give consideration to LaVine (7700) who has been hot, and will have to eat up some usage should Porter and Dunn miss again, but you basically need to lock Lauri (8600). He’s been clearing 50 DKP the way Edwin Moses cleared hurdles (look it up). Not only is Lauri going to get to play PF against Bruno Caboclo and Noah, he will then get to play a bunch of Center against JoVal and Noah as well. My god. If I still did the play of the day thing, Markkanen would be in the running for the title today. I don’t know how many other players are in a better spot than him today. Period.
Kyrie - You know what’s fun? Playing someone the day after they are chalk and let everyone down in a flaming wreck in front of the gates of hell. Kyrie (9100) did that yesterday and, because of that, most of the people who only play with their emotions will not play Kyrie. But he’s still the dude who’s been putting up 60 DKP. He got stopped by Lowry and Kawhi and Green. A lot of people do. It was a tough game. But tonight he gets a much easier matchup against Lillard and CJ. Sharp people go where others are scared to. I suggest you give serious consideration to doing that today with Kyrie. There are definitely better plays, but for the ceiling, and the low ownership I project him to have, you have to give him serious consideration. Especially if you do the multi entering thing. (The same thing goes for Horford (6300) who also shit the bed like a settler with dysentery).
Detroit Pistons - The Spurs have been a fucking train wreck lately. Just ask the Nets and Knicks. We are going to be able to take advantage of this, since most people are going to ignore this game given the low total (comparatively), and the slow pace of both teams. But, again, the Spurs have given up the 4th most DKPPG in the last month, are are weakest in the NBA against PG, as well as well subpar against SG and C. The White injury has hurt them badly, and it has showed. You can play Drummond (9000) in a wonderful matchup against one of the worst defenders in the NBA, LMA. You can play Blake (8700) against Davis Bertans, who is starting at PF while Gay comes off the bench, for some reason. You can play R Jax (5500) who can get you one of his 40-50 DKP point games here, against a SA team absolutely hemorrhaging points to the position lately. I like R Jax the best, given the pricing considerations, but, honestly, all 3 of these dudes are solid as it gets. Make sure you have Detroit today.
Indiana Bigs - Much like the Grizzlies, with the trade of Jordan, the Mavs can and must be attacked at the PF/C position. While this was kind of a clusterfuck, Sabonis is now injured and will miss 2 or so games. This means that we only have 3 bigs left, all of which are in fantastic spots today - Turner (6300), Thad Young (5900), and O’Quinn (4400). Honestly, you can play any of them with reckless abandon. I plan on making sure I have at least one in my lineup. While some may cling to the revenge narrative, I am simply looking at the numbers that say that, apart from bigs, Dallas has been horrifyingly bad against 3 point shooters lately (2nd worst in the NBA). That is why they got Wes Matthews (4500). I expect him to shoot 10 3s and get his value in raw points today (which is good since he is a shooter)
Dallas Mavs - Man, it is tough to take someone against the Pacers. I guess the fact the Mavs are 29th and the Pacers are 24th in pace means this is a pace up spot for the Mavs, but that’s just being disingenuous. The total for this game is 215.5 which is 2nd lowest on the slate, but I love that spread of IND -1. If it goes into OT, we won’t care what the Vegas total was. IND is better than average against every position, and the best in the NBA against PGs. But Doncic (9300) isn’t a typical PG. He is not going to be able to be stopped by Collison, by any stretch of anyone’s imagination. He still isn’t 10k yet, for some reason. Until he is, you have to keep locking him in every single day you can. The next most expensive Mav is Hardaway (5200) who is getting 35 minutes a game, and is just underpriced for that. He just got 30 DKP and that’s not out of the question today against a Pacers squad weakest against that position (though still above NBA average). Next most expensive Mav is Powell (4300) who will be coming off the bench against a weaker defender, just played 37 minutes, and got 49 DKP against the Clippers. While the Pacers are a much tougher matchup, he’s still one of the best punts of the day, hands down, and one of the most underpriced players on the slate without question.
Pelicans vs Lakers - Oh man, talk about a late night hammer. This game, as of now, has a 239 total with a close enough spread of LAL -5.5 between 2 of the fastest teams in the game who give up the most DKPPG. Apart from Brow, everyone, again, is on the table. Lebron (11100) will almost certainly be the chalk play on the slate, and for good reason. The Pelicans are bad against his position, and they won’t be able to stop him anyway. He could get an easy 3x2 if he wanted. Given how bad the Lakers have been playing lately, and how badly they need this win, he just may have to. We are getting to the point of the season where, if LeBron doesn’t take games over the way he did with the Cavs, the Lakers may not make the playoffs and that will be on his head. It also seems like, every game, either Ingram (6400) or Kuzma (6200) gets hot and LeBron starts feeding him over everyone else. I would expect one of those 2 to push 50 DKP today. Pick which one you like best and then run with it. The Lakers are worst in the NBA against C and 2nd worst in the NBA against PG. So give me all of the Randle (7800) and Elf (5200). Both could push you 7x today without any problem. Like, any problem at all. Jrue (7600) can still get you 40 DKP in his limited time, but I’m too worried to go there.
Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):
Warriors vs Heat - Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me.. You can’t get fooled again. But I think that’s where I’m going. A couple weeks ago, when the Heat travelled to GS, on a small slate, I still wanted nothing to do with the game. I expected it to blow out and, if you didn’t stack that game, you didn’t wind up cashing that slate. So here we are, again. This time the game is in Miami (so expect some players to be “questionable” with an “illness” after missing practice tomorrow morning). While I am not saying to avoid this game, I am just telling you what you already know- this is an all-star team coming into Miami. It’s just a question of if they show up enough to end this early. Justise will be back, and he will make things tougher for Curry than I would like. So, if I am going to pick one of the studs, I will go with Durant (9200) though, honestly, I probably won’t. Cousins (8000) finally cleared 30 minutes last game, getting to 31, and put up 51.75 DKP. Whiteside (6900) is one of the best defenders in the NBA, but Cousins isn’t really defendable, especially when surrounded by all stars. I said last game, if you are to go anywhere on the Warriors, I like to go with Klay (6600) and Dray (5900), since their floor will not kill you and they have a decent enough ceiling. They responded with 36 and 46 DKP, respectively. With Justise, Derrick Jones, and James Johnson probably coming back for this game, the only Heat player I have any interest in is the aforementioned Whiteside. He is too cheap for the 50 DKP he can drop today, and if the Heat want to keep this close (or if you think the Heat do keep this close), Whiteside is going to have to have a lot to do with that. It’s a GPP play, cause you can’t trust Spo with him. But it’s one of the games I wouldn’t be as skittish to go in on him.
Blazers - Ok so, I know there will be production on this side of the game. But damn if I want any part of it. Lillard (8800) is overpriced for this matchup, and the defense he is going to see. CJ (6300) is hard enough to play as it is, now he’s going against the best SG defense in the NBA. Nurkic (7500) would be a lock if they weren’t giving him 28 minutes so they could play Kanter (5800) 20. Both are overpriced for their new split roles. I mean, you can take a punt on a Layman (4000), but why do that on an 11 game slate when you can find much better plays.
Spurs - The Pistons are a surprisingly decent defensive team. They are slow, clocking in at 27th in pace so, even though the Spurs are 21st in pace, it’s still a pace down spot for them (and the Pistons have been bouncing to last place in pace lately, so it’s a major pace down spot). Unlike the Spurs, though, who are slow and give up a ton of points, the Pistons give up the 27th most DKPPG. They are weak against SGs, but give up the least 3s per game in the NBA. For this reason, if I am going to go anywhere, it is SG-ish DeRozan (8100) who doesn’t shoot 3s at all anyway. If they are going to be weak to shooters that don’t take 3s, than DeRozan is the perfect person to take advantage of that. LMA (7900) will need to play serious minutes against the size of Detroit’s frontcount, and he could push 50 DKP as well. Other than that, I am not looking to go anywhere, since even a Belinelli will have his strengths muted by this Detroit team.
Clippers vs Jazz - So, on paper, the Clippers have no chance here. The Jazz have been playing extremely well lately, and the Clippers shouldn’t be able to hang on. They just don’t have the personnel to deal with a team for whom all 5 starters are in the top 10 in DRPM at their positions. THAT BEING SAID there are a couple of people here I am absolutely in love with. First, as I have pointed out on many, many occasions, as good a defender as Gobert is, the Jazz are one of the worst teams in the NBA at defending Centers. Montrezl (6800) will be completely unowned and should get you 40+ DKP today. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he’s the highest scoring player from this game. Seriously, I will be talking about him all day in the chat. Get on Montrezl today. Period. Second, the Clippers are one of the worst teams in the NBA against Centers as well (the recent fall of Dallas and Memphis has increased their rank from last, but they are still terrible). Gobert (8200) should have a floor of almost 5x here with the ability to get you 50 DKP if all goes well. The Clippers are almost as weak against guards as they are against Centers, so if you want to take a chance on Rubio (6000) fresh off a 40 DKP performance, or Donovan (8200), who is still underpriced for someone in the top 10 in the NBA in usage, I would be a big fan. Like I said, the Jazz are just too good for this game. I don’t expect it to stay close. I would definitely take Utah -9.5 without question. So, while these plays are great, just be careful. Except with Montrezl. Play him.
Bucks vs Kings - What do you get when you take a fast team that doesn’t play defense and can’t guard against 3s and match them up with a fast team that has the best defense in the league and only takes 3s? You have a fucking slaughter. Giannis (11000) is probable. So if you want to play him, go right ahead. I will not, because I don’t want to pay 11000 for someone that will get 31 minutes, at best, in this matchup. If you want to get cute, you can play Bledsoe (6500) who is in a fantastic spot again, and no one will play him cause of what he did last game, and how many people he destroyed. BroLo (4500) will be needed to combat the height of the Kings, and he should eat here. He is another one of my favorite plays on the slate- I don’t think he’ll get you 50, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he pushed 40 DKP if this stays close. The addition of Mirotic makes me worry about the minutes of everyone else, and how that is all going to shake out so I just don’t want to go anywhere else.As far as taking Kings, the Bucks give up the most 3s in the NBA per game and have really no other deficiencies. If you want to go anywhere on this team, then, go with either Hield (6400) or Bogdan (4900). Bagley (6700) is a GPP play only, given his price and his inconsistent minutes.
Situations to monitor:
Teague QUESTIONABLE - So, regardless of what happens with Teague, KAT (10600) is one of the top plays on the day. ATL is a huge pace up matchup, with a terrible D. He should get the rebounds he wants. He should get the points he wants. They won’t be able to stop him. If Teague (5600) plays, I would expect he would be relatively limited. If not, he’s a very very interesting play at that price. If he misses, I would expect Tyus (4500) to be chalk, given how much he crushed a couple days ago in a similar spot. But I wouldn’t sleep on Rose (5500). Even if he only gets 25 min against the Hawks, he could still get you 40-50 DKP. And, especially with a chalk Tyus, getting an underowned pivot to someone with Rose’s ceiling is really intriguing.
Ok that’s it for this 11 gamer. Now I need to get some sleep. Man I’m tired. Best of luck today everyone! I’ll see you later for a good chalk/bad chalk.