Hey everyone! bathrobeDFS here with my thoughts on the slate now that we can look at ownership projections and we have gotten some injury news. Just a reminder for folks, I am on twitter at @bathrobeDFS so make sure to follow me (I mean, if you want). I give updates and try to get relevant news retweeted with analysis. I try to do this after lock as well, for all those players who deal with late swap. It is a lot more timely for me to do updates on that medium, although I do intend on updating this article and answering any questions you have up to lock.
Thank you, again, for all the support. I should be able to do an article tonight for tomorrow’s slate, but tomorrow and Thursday I will have to be doing the funeral stuff. If all goes well, I will be posting this exact type of article on Friday (hopefully WITH the good chalk/bad chalk section)
Updated Lines
Wizards vs Cavs - 218.5, WSH -8
Bucks vs Pistons - 216.5, MIL -7.5
Thunder vs Magic - 221.5, OKC -5
Bulls vs Nets - 219.5, BK -7
Pelicans vs Rockets - 233.5, HOU -10.5
Suns vs. Spurs - 225.5, SAS -13
Sixers vs Lakers - 231, PHI -6.5
Quick Analysis
Players I Love (in descending price order):
8000 and Up
Embiid (10200) - My favorite play on the slate. Incredible fast paced game. Should stay close. Kuzma out helps his rebound upside. Lakers are one of the worst teams against Centers. Even with Simmons and Butler playing, Embiid has 2nd highest usage on the slate behind Harden. As much as I love Westbrook tonight, I am going to guess at that price he is going to be super, super chalky. Give me all the Process.
PG13 (9800) - Again, with everyone on Westbrook (Ownership isn’t out yet, so I am assuming), I will go down to PG13. Orlando has a good overall D, and play slower this year for sure, but I wouldn’t classify any of their defenders as elite. Russ has been happy letting PG13 go off when given the chance, and Isaac and Gordon won’t be able to stop him. If the ownership winds up the other way, I will go for Russ over PG, but I can’t imagine that will be the case. I’ll zig today, gladly.
Blake (9300) - Last two times Pistons played the Bucks, I have told you guys to get on Blake. The Bucks are super weak against PF this season. The way they play the perimeter hurts Drummond a lot more than people realize. And this helps Blake’s rebounding upside. With Bullock out, he should get extra 3s. Last time, Blake was 1 rebound away from a double-double which would have pushed him over 50 DKP. The time before that, he put up a triple-double. The O/U and the amount of other stars are gonna push Blake’s ownership under 5% and he could get past 60 DKP if this game stays close.
Beal (9200) - The Wizards have been pretty massive underdogs lately, especially when playing on the road. So tonight, on the road, they are, of course 8 point favorites cause they are playing the Cavs. Sure this is a pace down spot for Beal, but he is still going to take 140 shots tonight against the horrendous D of the Cavs. To be fair, I am a bigger fan of Sato, but Beal is in an incredible spot tonight. If this game manages to stay close, he could get 40 real life points.
LMA (8700) - First, they are going against the Suns. Woo! So, of course, we have to be wary of a blow out. But, if we assume this game stays close- Holmes should get the start at Center for Phoenix. He is 6’10. LMA is 6’11 which means Pop has no reason to play the Pau Gasol starting lineup. If LMA starts at Center, against the Suns, he is in one of the best smash spots on the slate, especially with DeRozan’s usage going to other people tonight. If he doesn’t start at Center, he will spend enough time there that it won’t matter in the scheme of things. This is one of those times we don’t need to overthink it.
Jrue (8600) - AD, Randle, and Mirotic are out, leaving the New Orleans TooManyCooks from a couple weeks ago down to 1 chef tonight. If this game manages to stay close (which, honestly, it shouldn’t), Jrue will almost certainly be one of the main reasons why. He is still priced like everyone is healthy, and he should easily push past 50 DKP (again, if this stays close). One little hit is CP3 is back, who is a good defender. It would have been a LOT better a few days if he only had to deal with Harden, Rivers, and Gordon.
Mid-Ranged Players (4500-8000)
Rondo (6700) - With Kuzma and Lebron out, I don’t know how you don’t lock this dude in. He is a triple double threat every game. This is, again, going to be an incredibly fast paced game with a ton of points scored. And he will be doing the ball handling for the Lakers here for 40 minutes, potentially. Someone else with easy 50 upside today, but this one is only 6700.
Kris Dunn (6700) - I imagine a lot of people are going to go to LaVine here, and for good reason. This game could shoot out for a variety of reasons. If that happens, one of the dudes who will shooting the ball as much as he can is LaVine. But I think Dunn gives you a pretty nice ceiling himself tonight with a hell of a floor. First, Looking back over the last 10 games, Dunn has 2, 4, 2, 2, 2, 0, 1, 3, 2, and 2 steals. The Nets (and specifically D’Angelo) turnover the ball a lot. This could be one of those games Dunn gets you 5 steals. Second, he does almost all the ball handling. He hovers at about 10 assists a game, giving him a good shot to get the double-double bonus. He will also shoot the ball 15 times if the matchup calls for it (and it will). The Nets are not the joke they used to be. They play smart defensive basketball as best they can. This means they will try to take away LaVine and Markkanen tonight, forcing Dunn and Selden to beat them (with Portis going nuts in whatever run he gets). I think Dunn will be able to do that. D’Angelo Russell has gotten better, but he is still awful at defending.
Portis (6400) - THIS ONLY COUNTS IF HE STARTS. If they start RoLo, I will not be on Portis cause I can’t trust his minutes. But if he starts, he should be the one getting 30+ minutes. And he will do that against the Nets, as a Center. So… yeah. Lock that shit in.
Faried (6300) - The Rockets don’t have any choice but to run him like Killer Mike and El-P do jewels. He should be priced in the 7k range for the role he’s having. He’s 1000 under that now. AD and Randle are going to be out. He will have to deal with Okafor and… Diallo? Who are you scared of stopping him?
Zizic (6100) - Given the other options, I can’t see myself going here, but “Center against Washington” is another one of those lock in plays with Howard out. If he can still get upper 30 minutes with Nance back against a Hornets team that likes going small, he can do the same against an even worse Wizards team defensively.
Okafor (6100) - They don’t really have anyone else but Diallo with Randle now out. He’s gonna get 30+ minutes. He will get a double-double. He should reach value. The only “big” Houston has is Faried. This is gonna be the best spot Okafor has been in since AD has gone out.
Sato (6000) - I am Locking in Sato today. If Embiid wasn’t going to be my MSC play it would have been Sato. He is another 3x2 threat today. He has been been playing awesome. He matches up against Sexton who is, literally, the worst defender in the NBA. My rosters tonight start with Embiid and Sato.
Gay (5900) - As was the case with LMA, Gay benefits tremendously from both the absence of DeRozan and the matchup against the Suns front court. You can play him with LMA or pivot to him in case LMA winds up being chalk. But he could easily have one of his 40+DKP points today.
Eric Gordon (5000) - We are seeing another one of those weird pricing things that happens on DK. A week ago, without CP3, Gordon was hovering at 6k. In the last 2 games, with CP3, he has put up 34.5 DKP and 26.25 DKP and his price fell all the way to 5k? CP3’s presence actually helps Gordon a tremendous amount, since Gordon can only get the ball to shoot it if Harden doesn’t run it up the court and draw the foul. I’m not saying he’s my favorite play tonight, but it’s a great matchup against a depleted Pelicans team, and way, way too low a price.
Alec Burks (4900) - A look through Burks’ game logs show that he is someone who you can play against bad teams and not against good teams. He shows 40 DKP upside when going against bad perimeter Defenses. And the Wizards are about as bad as it gets (even though they have been better with Sato playing instead of Wall).
Napier (4900) - Dinwiddie is still out. This means, even with Harris back, he is still going to get 30+ minutes and put up 30+ DKP. With Dunn (a good defender) on D’Angelo, and Napier playing against LaVine (a terrible defender), I like him either best or 2nd best on this team.
Jeff Green (4700) - IF MAHINMI IS OUT Green will be locked into 30+ minutes again. Minutes are king here, and he won’t be owned at all. He could, as well as other folks in this price range, easily go past 30 DKP tonight if the situation presents itself. And being the de facto backup C would certainly help him get there.
Richaun Holmes (4700) - If Ayton is out, Holmes will easily push for minutes in the high-30s if they can keep this game close. He should be fine matched up against the small ball lineup Pop should counter with. He’s a solid PPM producer on the season and he will be in a great spot. The only issue here is I can’t imagine he’s not one of the most chalky plays of the day (ownership is still not out..)
Value and Other Punts (4500 and under)
Selden (4200) - I like him for all the same reasons I like Dunn (with the assist upside mitigated by the price difference). If this game stays close, the Nets are going to make Dunn and Selden be the ones to do it. I have no problem getting on them in case they can live up to the task.
Bertans (4100) - As I referred to earlier, I expect Phoenix to be without Ayton, meaning Holmes playing 30+ minutes at the 5. This means Pop won’t have to go big and Bertans should be the main bench beneficiary of DeRozan’s absence. He should push for 30 minutes and 30 DKP (especially in this matchup). Plus he would get blow out run.
RoLo (4000) - Just go and look what I wrote about Portis and Copy-Paste it here. This only matters if he starts. If he does, he is starting against the Nets so.. yes, please.
Beasley (3800) - starting for Kuzma again. Last game pushed for 30 minutes and 30 DKP. Lock him in tonight.
RHJ (3800) - RHJ had a bad first half last night. I know cause I played him in my main lineup. I was upset. I didn’t think he would hit value. Then my friend came by to keep me company and after he left I was shocked to see he had gotten 33.25 DKP. If he plays again tonight, I would expect another 27 or so minutes from him, and similar production. The only thing that would keep me off is chalky ownership.
Darius Miller (3700) - The Pelicans are also resting Moore tonight on top of everyone else. That means Miller might push 35 minutes whether or not this game blows out. Last time this happened he put up 34 DKP.
Luke Kennard (3500) - Bullock is going to miss tonight (probably). If this is the case, Kennard is going to be in line for some major minutes. He may not produce, sure, but you gotta take the chance here. He’s not in a great matchup against the Bucks, but it’s not awful either. He has shown in similar situations the ability to get to 30 DKP
Okobo (3500) - No one will tell you it doesn’t come without risk, but Melton is still out. He has gotten 22, 31, and 28 minutes in the 3 games since Melton went down. He put up 12.5, 16.75, and 25.75 DKP in those games, respectively. With the fact he was pretty chalky the last couple games and disappointed people, he should be less popular tonight than a starter that could get 30 minutes priced at 3500 should be.
Solomon Hill (3400) - See Miller, Darius
Stanley Johnson (3200) - See Kennard, Luke.
Diallo (3200) - This is a risky one. The last time these 4 dudes missed for the Pelicans, Diallo got 23 minutes as the backup and put up 24.5 DKP. He could easily do that again tonight. Plus, he should get the blow out run should Houston end this early.
Good Chalk/Bad Chalk
Unfortunately, it is after 4pm and no ownership projections have been posted. I hope to post an update later with some Underowned players, and talking about who is chalk. I don’t want to wait any longer to publish this though, cause I want you all to get as much time as possible (and, frankly, since projections are normally up by the early AM, there may be a problem that could prevent it from being posted for awhile now)
Injury/Lineup News/Thoughts
I have to start this section before I do anything about ownership. It’s almost 330pm right now and there still hasn’t been any ownership put up. So I will get this done and loop back to check all of that. If it isn’t done, then I will either do an edit later, or just figure something else out.
Ish OUT, Bullock DOUBTFUL - Already talked about this. Griffin, Kennard, and Stan Johnson are awesome choices today
Briscoe OUT - If you are desperate you can take a chance on Jerian Grant, who just had a great game. I can’t imagine doing that, though.
Dekker GTD, Mahinmi GTD - I already talked about Green and how good a spot he is in. This would also give a bump to Ariza and Porter
Randle, Moore OUT - Talked about this as well. Jrue is a great play if you think it stays close. Ditto Okafor. If you think the Rockets blow it out, Miller, Hill, and Diallo should be who you look at here.
Steven Adams QUESTIONABLE - If Adams misses, Noel (3600) would be the punt of the day. I would lock him in my lineups everywhere. It also would raise the projection of Vuc (9500) who would go from merely a good play against the good D of Adams to a great play.
Ayton OUT, Holmes STARTING - I expect Holmes to be one of the most popular people today. I think he’s good enough you can just eat that chalk, as I talked about earlier
Kuzma OUT, Hart IN - Kuzma out means I love Beasley who I talked about earlier. It would also increase the 3x2 upside of Rondo, since he can get more rebounds. Ingram would have to shoulder more of the offensive load as well, making him a decent play (as opposed to a fantastic one had Hart missed)
Bolden OUT - increases the run Chandler and Muscala should get. If they want to be sneaky, they can put Brewer at the 4, which would greatly increase his projection today. Similarly, they can play Simmons at the 4 a lot more as Chandler’s backup and play TJ more at the point (they love doing this).
Ok everyone. That’s it for now. I will try to post updates to both lineup and ownership under here if I can. Best of luck tonight all!!