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BMW Championship Breakdown!


PGA Stats & Plays from CheatSheetPros!


QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:

Dustin Johnson broke the game last week with that crazy performance. How does a guy shoot 80 and 80 in a weak field and then come back and lap the field in one of the strongest fields. Dustin Johnson put up 172 DK points and that was the highest since Webb put up 145 on his win.

COURSE:

Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course)

Green Type: POA

Yardage: Around 7,350 depending on pin placements

Par: 70

NO CUT EVENT

QUICK BREAKDOWN OF SOME KEY STATS:

This course has little to no history for most golfers. The 2003 U.S. Open was hosted here and only 4-5 golfers in the field were in that event. The young kids will have more of a track record as the NCAA Illini Invitational has a tournament here each year. Matthew Wolff, Cameron Champ, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler have play this course more than a couple times.

I’m going to focus on “recent form” mainly for this article because these are the top 70 golfers in a no cut event so throwing top 10 stats at you isn’t really effective. If you do want to look at some stats the highest birdie holes on this course are the Par 5 over 500 yard holes and they have a birdie rate of 36.3% and 24.9%. All other holes have a birdie rate of 18ish % and lower. The BOGEY holes are the ones to keep an eye on as 7 of the 18 holes have a bogey rate of greater than 25% and they are all in that Par 4: 400-500 range with exception of one long par 3.


STROKES GAINED PUTTING ON POA – LAST 50 ROUNDS: (Rank 1st and down)

Bryson DeChambeau

Webb Simpson

Kevin Na

Jason Day

Patrick Reed

Cameron Smith

Matt Kuchar

Louis Oosthuizen

Maverick McNealy

Daniel Berger

Kevin Kisner

GOLFERS OVER 10,000 ON DK: “HIGH END STUDS”

DUSTIN JOHNSON – He crushed the field last week putting up 172 DK points and shot rounds of -4, -11, -7 and -8. I am glad DK has priced him up to 11,500 otherwise his ownership numbers would be just stupid. People will have shares of him so if you think he is going to smash again then be different on the bottom of your lineup. If you don’t think he is then fade him and try to edge the field. DJ has put together 3 straight solid tournaments of 172, 104 and 95 DK points. The 104 and 95 won’t win a GPP at a price tag of 11,500 but hard to argue against him after putting up 172 DK points last week.

WEBB SIMPSON – If you are going to fade DJ I like coming down to Webb at 10,100. You get a 1400 discount and he has the second lowest average per round behind Bryson at -2.57 strokes per round. He had a solid week last week also putting up rounds of -1, -7, -3 and -5 and the prior week of -4, -4, -5 and -5. His last 4 tournaments were 103, 116.5, 55 and 91 DK points. 3 of those 4 were 9x value and higher. He also ranks in the top 10 in strokes gained putting on POA surfaces (as seen above).

GOLFERS 9,000 – 9,999: “UPPER MID-RANGE”

DANIEL BERGER – Only 5 guys make up this range on DK this week and Berger is my favorite in the tier. He has 117.5, 76 and 91.5 DK points across his last 3 and has a lower average per round than any of the $10k range guys coming in at an even -3.00 strokes per round. That might even be the lowest number on our round tracker cheat sheet. He shot -5, -5, -4 and -4 last week on a tough course and this course should play similar. Also ranks top 10 in strokes gained putting on POA.

SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER – I don’t think I have ever rostered Scheffler but hard to argue with his recent surge. He has 117 and 96.5 DK points in his last two and even shot a round of -12 last week. Here carries a little more risk as most of his strokes gained per round average is coming from the -12 number he shot in R2 last week. Priced at only 9000 and coming off 117 DK points that is solid bang for your buck.

GOLFERS 8,000 – 8,999: “THE SWEET SPOT”

KEVIN KISNER – Wow! Talk about coming out of a funk. He had 3 of 4 tournaments below 34 DK points with MC and he just fell off the map. Then his last 4 he has been surging putting up 75.5 then 78 and then his last two were 117.5 and 103.5 DK points. That is huge returns on his 8400 price tag. Kisner has an average round of -2.23 strokes which ranks #2 in his tier. He also has a solid last 8 rounds shooting -6, -5, -1 and -5 last week on a tough long course and then -1, -6, -5 and -6 on an easy course at Wyndham. He is on top of his game right now.

HARRIS ENGLISH – Poor English puts together 4 rounds last week of -7, -5, -5 and -2 for what should of likely won the tournament just to be over shadowed by Dustin Johnsons masterful performance. English is a grinder and I can get him at 8300 vs. Dustin Johnson at 11,500, yes please! English has 133.5, 93.5, 68.5 and 92.5 DK points in his last 4. Those are massive X value numbers on his price tag. He might be a core play for me this week depending on his ownership.

VIKTOR HOVLAND – Hovland has spent time on this course and that is something most other golfers can’t say. Hovland started off the return to golf on a tear putting up 71, 102, 100, 95 and 119.5 DK points and looked unreal for a rookie. Then he went into a minor downshift and put up only 52-60 DK points for 3 events. Last week he burst back with a 104.5 DK points performance on a tough and long course which will be similar to this week. He shot solid rounds of -3, -1, -3 and -5 last week and priced at only 8100. As you can see I love this 8000 range pricing tier!

GOLFERS 7,000 – 7,999: “The LINEUP FILLERS!”

RUSSELL HENLEY – I can take Henley for only 7800 and guarantee I’m getting 4 rounds of him? YES please! Look at his last 8 rounds -7, -4, -1 and -3 and then -2, -2, -7 and -5. He has an average per round score of -2.33 AND he has put up over 100 DK points in his last two contents. I love seeing the 100.5 DK points last week and that makes me feel better about him going into this week.

RYAN PALMER – So I debated on if I would put him in the article or not and obviously, he has made the cut! Palmer is only 7600 so we only need 70-80 DK points for a solid return of value. He has put up 100, 76, 73.5 and 89 in his last 4 starts and that is smashing value on his 7600 price tag. Last week he shot a solid and consistent -4, -4, -3 and -4. He does carry some risk as he only have 62% of his rounds below par but I believe that is fair based on his price tag.

JASON KOKRAK – Remember this guy? We haven’t mentioned him all year. His last two tournaments have been great and appears he is back on track and has knocked out all the rust. He has 92 and 102 DK points in his last two with rounds of -3, -3, -1 and -6 last week and -1, -7, -3 and -3 the week prior. 9 straight rounds at -1 or lower for him.

GOLFERS UNDER 7,000:DARTS!”

BRIAN HARMAN – He put up 95 DK poins last week shooting -4, -5, +2 and -7 and priced at only 6900? Yes please! His prior 3 tournaments were 75, 51 and 106 DK points. If you can get triple digits from a guy in the 6000-6999 range that is great for GPPs and allows you to move up to DJ (if you like). He also has a solid average per round score of -1.70.

TALOR GOOCH – I used him in a lot of showdown lineups last week and he is priced at only 6600 this week. He has 99 and 89 DK points in his last two events. Last week he shot -5, +1, -6 and -2. Just like we said about Harman if you can get a possibility of triple digits from a sub 6900 golfer that pays huge dividends.

TYLER DUNCAN – Sitting at a low price tag of only 6400 I don’t think I will go any lower than Duncan. He has 91 and 96.5 DK points in his last two events. I mean that is 14x value on his current salary. The equivalent is Dustin Johnson last week putting up the 172 Dk points, if his price tag was 11,500 this week and he did it again that would be 15x value. The best bang for your buck wins the GPPs. Duncan is a great lower end difference maker. He has 8 straight rounds of -2 or lower and he is guaranteed 4 rounds this weekend.

Thanks for reading,

Haze

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