College Basketball Best Bets for Saturday!
QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
There are 97 college basketball games today with a full NBA slate, 3 NFL games and Bowl games. It's going to be a great day for sports betting, player props and fantasy! I want to give you a few games that jump out for my early reserach to get you started! We posted a 4-0 pick run on our Facebook group & Twitter on Thursday night and then hit our top NBA play last night and top college play! We give a projected score on every college basketball game on the slate!
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PLAY #1 > KANSAS / INDIANA OVER 142-143
Kansas has put up 95, 91 and 87 points over the last 3 games and they have a 7-3 "OVER" record on the season. Indiana has several games in the high 70's and 80's and Kansas doesn't have any height this year so not worried about a shut down defense. Indiana has a 6-4 "OVER" reocrd. This isn't a game that jumps off the page with our model as our projection is pretty close to Vegas but it's something that I like after digging in and reseraching which is what I recommend you guys do instead of just following plays without understanding the why behind them!
PLAY #2 > ALABAMA (-1.5) OVER GONZAGA
This line opened at Alabama +1.5 and now -1.5. Our projected score has this with Alabama winning by a couple points so the line shift puts our model close to the Vegas spread. But look at the game logs which is something I highly recommend when digging into games and that's why we have them on our cheatsheets. We see that Alabama has beat the last 3 top 25 teams they have played in Memphis, Houston and UNC and their only loss was against #1 UConn 5-6 games ago. Gonzaga will beat up on the lower ranked opponents but how are they doing vs. top 25 schools? We can see they lost to Baylor 64-63, lost to Purdue 84-66, beat Kentucky 88-72 and lost to Texas 93-74. This just gives me the feeling that the Zags are struggling against top 25 schools and Alabama is taking care of business and winning the close games against strong opponents. Riding Alabama today!
PLAY #3 > FLORIDA ATLANTIC (-15.5 OR 1ST HALF) OVER FLORIDA INT
Look at the top right corner and we see the 34th offense vs. 285th. Our model has this projected 83-66 with FLA ATL winning by 17 thus a slight cover edge. Florida Atlantic is 9-1 on the season wile Florida Int is 4-5 while playing the 345th schedule. Looking at the game logs we need to find out if Florida Atl can cover a large spread so we want to look at comparable ranked opponents as Florida Int and see how those games ended up. Florida Int ranks (256th) so looking at the Florida Gulf Coast (132nd) and South Alabama (158th) those games will give us a feel for the spread. The FLGS game they won 85-53 so by 32 points and the S Alabama game they won 84-59 by another 25 points so I think a 1st half play or a -15.5 is in play and coverable. Florida Atlantic ranks 49th and looking at the Florida Int schedule we see they lost to 286th ranked Howard by 12 points and 301st ranked EMU by 12 points again. The highest ranked opponet they have played is NC State who ranks 53rd and they lost 107-74. I'm riding Florida Atlantic in this spot, do you agree?
I wish I had time to research all the games, give you my thoughts and add in the screen shots so I can help you dig through games but time is limited so I attempt to give you a few of the games I'm on and how I came up with them. The highlighted games on are model are games that you should dig into and get the "why" and see if you like them.
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Good Luck Today!
HIGHLIGHT FROM LAST NIGHTS NBA CHEATSHEET!