College Football Betting Picks from CheatSheetPros!
HOW DID WE DO IN LAST WEEKS ARTICLE?
5-1 in our article plays with some monster wins! We had Oklahoma State who rolled up a 63-17 win over TCU.
Houston - WINNER!
Georgia - WINNER!
Iowa State - Loss
Oklahoma State - WINNER!
Wisconsin - WINNER!
Air Force - WINNER!
BEST BET #1
MICHIGAN (-15) OVER MARYLAND
"Cheat Line" has this game at Michigan -21 but Vegas only sitting on -15 so I'm all over it. The main difference for me is the "Defensive Yardage Ranking". Michigan is 7th best in the land allowing only 300 yards per game while Maryland is 102nd allowing 442 yards per game. Maryland is allowing 34.9 PPG while Michigan only 16.1. Michigan also projected with a much better YPP of 12.7 vs. 18.1.
PROJECTED SCORE: MICHIGAN 38 vs. MARYLAND 17
BEST BET #2
MINNESOTA (-7) OVER INDIANA
Huge mis-match that jumps out at me is the 121st rated "O" in Indiana facing the 6th best "D" in terms of total yardage.
We have the gap of 155 yards and with Minny putting up a 14.4 YPP that projects out to around 10 points safely covering the 7. We also project Minny to win this by 15. Indy with a very poor 21.0 YPP number and allowing 34 PPG while only putting up 14.4.
RECENT GAMES: Indy just got beat by Rutgers 38-3 as a touchdown favorite and then 29-7 against a good Michigan team. Indiana last week only managed 262 total yards of offense with 6 turnovers. Minnesota is a much better defense!
PROJECTED SCORE: MINNESOTA 30 vs. INDIANA 16
BEST BET #3
NOTRE DAME (-17) OVER GEORGIA TECH
Our projected line is -20 and PFF (who is very conservative has this is -30) so we will gladly lay the -17 even though our projected score is only a 14 point game (as seen below).
Main thing jumped out at me is the "DEF", GTech has the 114th ranked "D" giving up 468 yards per game while Notre Dame sits at 44th giving up only 361 yards per game.
Power Ranks: Georgia Tech has a power ranking of 41 while Notre Dame sits at 60. Last week Notre Dame played Virginia who has a power ranking of 47 and dismantled them 28-3 taking a 23-17 FD edge, 423-278 total yard edge AND rushing for 249 yards. Last week Georgia Tech faced Boston College who sits with a power rank of only 44 (compared to Notre Dame at 60) and they allowed 505 total yards, 26 first downs and gave up 41 points. Notre Dame has the ability to blow this game wide open in front of their home crowd!
PROJECTED SCORE: NOTRE DAME 35 vs GEORGIA TECH 21
BEST BET #4
TENNESSEE (-28) OVER SOUTH ALABAMA
"Cheat Line Algo" has this at -25 so it doesn't like -28 but this is a perfect example of digging into the stats to find a key play.
Strength of Schedule: Tennessee has played the 7th hardest schedule in college football and South Alabama has played the 128th.
TEN has been terrific on "O" putting up 453.8 yards per game with a solid 13.4 YPP (yard per point). Now their "D" has given up a massive 452 yards per game but look at who they have played: Georgia (Power Ranking 73), Kentucky (48), Alabama (72) and Ole Miss (56) in just their last 4 games. They did manage to put up 17, 45, 24 and 26 points against those teams but they were brutal matchups.
Blowout Potential: TEN played South Carolina (Power Ranking: 36) and won 45-20 and Mizzou (39) and won 62-24 so they have the ability to rack up some points. This week they get South Alabama (Power Ranking only 28).
Digging into South Alabama a bit further here is their last 4 games with the teams power rankings, keep in mind Tennessee is currently at 46 playing a horrible schedule. South Alabama lost to App State (49) 31-7, Lost to Troy (34) 31-24, Beat Arkansas State (24) 31-13 and lost to La-Monroe (21) 41-31. If La-Monroe who has a power ranking of (21) put up 41 points on South Alabama what do you think Tennessee is going to do?
BEST BET #5
WAKE FOREST (+4.5) OVER CLEMSON
Great "O" vs. Great "D" and Bad "O" vs. Bad "D" so who will prevail?
I can't pass up taking +4.5 on a team that is putting up 45.1 points per game and over 500 average offensive yards per game. WF has put up 45, 55, 45, 70 and 40 over the last 5 weeks.
Clemson started the year 0-6 ATS before picking up a couple ATS wins and that puts them at 2-9 ATS on the year but 2-1 ATS in their last 3 games. They beat FSU (41) 30-20, Louisville (47) 30-24 and pounded a horrible UConn (9) team 44-7. WF currently has a power ranking of (51) which is going to be the best team they have played over recent weeks.
Highly efficient offenses that obtain their yards through the air like WF are usually always in the game because they can score so quickly. If this game becomes a back and forth I don't think Clemson can match them on "O" so grabbing the +4.5 in this spot.
PROJECTED SCORE: WAKE FOREST 27 vs. CLEMSON 26
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OTHER GAMES TO CONSIDER - THESE ARE TIER 2 PLAYER FOR ME:
TIER 2 - BET #1
SMU (+11.5) OVER CINCINNATI
Throw all the stats out the window for this game, have you watched Cincinnati? They look horrible! They are on an 0-4 ATS run and look at these games in the screen shot below. They did whoop ass on some USF but their power ranking is only 31 and still didn't cover. They were a -23 fav vs. Tulsa and squeaked by 28-20. They were an even larger fav at -28.5 vs. Tulane and only managed a 31-12 win and Navy they were laying -29 and won only 27-20. Tulsa & Tulane both it at a 38 power ranking and Navy a 36. They are squeaking by against poor squads. Now SMU isn't great by any means but their power ranking is a 47 which will be the toughest game they've had since Notre Dame on October 2nd. I can't pass up the points here.
Let's look at SMU. Both teams rolled UCF 56-21 and 55-26, both teams also beat Navy 27-20 and 31-24, and Tulane 55-26 and 31-12. The teams look closer than 11.5 points.
PROJECTED SCORE: CINCINNATI 33 vs. SMU 24
TIER 2 - BET #2
APP STATE (-9.5) OVER TROY
App State is on a 5-1 ATS spread run and looking at the greenline this am on PFF there is 98% of the cash on App State. When running it through my College Football Betting sheet we see this algo line at -16 and -17 and since both are well over the Vegas line it is going to slide into a play for us.
Common Opponents: App State rolled S. Alabama 31-7 while Troy squeaked by 31-24. Coastal Carolina beat Troy 35-28 and App State won 30-27.
Troy allowed 35 points to La-Lafayette, 24 to South Alabama and 35 to Coastal Carolina and even 28 to Texas State. App State has put up 31, 48, 59 and 30 over the last 4 games. Lay the points since Troy has the the 102nd rated "O".
PROJECCTED SCORE: APP STATE 32 vs. TROY 20
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Thanks for reading & good luck!
Haze