College Football Picks for Week 2!
QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
I don't really rely on the CheatSheetPros models until we get 2-3 weeks of data and then we will load them up with talks of YPP stats and offensive/defensive rankings. The top 3 plays below were pointed out on the Pointwise betting sheets shared with the group and they are the ones that I researched out and like the most out of their top plays. The rest of the plays are games that I feel like we have an "edge" on after a week of data.
You will notice I write up some 1st half bets but there is no line. That is because the line is not posted at this time on my book. I also discuss power ratings in this article. One of the most valuable resources is to have a solid set of power rankings so you can get an idea of the difference between the two teams. I prefer to use Pointwise but there are some posted on TeamRankings, Pro Football Focus, etc. The power rankings for pointwise run from around 15 to a high of 71 (Alabama). If you are looking at the PW sheet and you want to see what the "Pointwise Projected Line" would be take the difference of the two power rankings and add in the home field advantage. A power ranking of 45-55 are usually top 25 teams and the power ranking of 20-35 are lower caliper teams.
IOWA STATE (+3.5) OVER IOWA
Line opened at +5.5 and already down to +3.5 with 70% of the cash and 71% of the tickets on Iowa State. Iowa State showed up as a top ranked PW play and on their late release Red Sheet so it caught my eye. Iowa State played SE MO State last week so they obviously rolled 42-10 with a 26-15 FD edge and putting up 469 yards of “O”. Iowa played South Dakota State and won the game but it was only 7-3 and only put up 166 total yards of “O”. Grab the points!
AIR FORCE (-17) OVER COLORADO
Another top rated from PW play that caught my eye. Line opened at -14 and now out to -17 and -17.5 in some spots with 93% of the cash and 76% of the tickets on Air Force. When looking at the two teams Colorado gave up 275 rushing yards to TCU last week ultimately losing 38-13. Air Force played Northern Iowa and put up 691 yards of offense and 582 rushing yards. I may look at a 1H spot on this one if I have to lay the hook.
ARKANSAS (-8) OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
I was on the Razorbacks last week at -6.5 and squeaked out a cover. Line opened at -8.5 and now -8. There is 74% of the cash on the Razorbacks and 87% of the tickets. I can’t help but also notice 95% of the cash and 93% of the tickets on the OVER 52/53. This line should be (-11) so I am glad to take anything less than 10. Arkansas played CINCY last week who holds a solid power rating of 50 and knocked them off 31-24 and heled a 224-113 rushing yard edge. South Carolina holds a lower power rating (45) and they won 35-14 over Georgia State last week so they didn’t have to do much.
UTSA (-2.5) OVER ARMY
What a game last week with UTSA almost knocking off Houston (Power Rank: 48) but losing in OT. Line opened at -2.5 and still -2.5 with 79% of the cash and 74% of the tickets on UTSA. They lost 37-35 but held a 24-20 FD edge and 441-344 total yard edge. Army has a power ranking of only 37 so they are about 11 points less of a team than Houston. Army lost to Coastal last week 38-28 but check the 30-11 FD deficit and 437-334 yard deficit.
CENTRAL MICHICAN (-5) OVER SOUTH ALABAMA
This line should be Central Michigan (-11) so to see it open at -6 and then go down to -5 blows my mind. 95% of the cash is on the CM side with 79% of the tickets. Last week Central Michigan hung with Oklahoma State who holds a power ranking of 55 which is 19 points higher than that of CM. They put up 546 total yards of offense and 31 first downs (rushing for 122 and passing for 424). This week they face South Alabama who has a power ranking of only 28. South Alabama managed 500 yards of offense last week but it was against Nicholls State. I’m riding this Central Michigan train after that impressive W1 game and almost knocking off a top 10 team!
WISCONSIN (-17.5) OVER WASHINGTON STATE
Line opened at -16.5 and now -17.5. I may move into a 1H bet for this game and get it over early. 75% and 78% of the cash/tickets on Wisconsin. Both teams played small schools for the week 1 tune up but Washington State barely squeaked by Idaho 24-17 and only managed 20 FDs and 360 total yards. Wisconsin played Illinois State and went 38-0 with a +197 yard edge. Wisconsin has to roll here!
SYRACUSE (1ST HALF) OVER UCONN
Line opened at -20 and now -23.5 and this is the sweet spot for a first half bet! Last week Syracuse faced Louisville (Power Ranking: 45) and beat them 31-7 with a 23-15 first down edge and 449-334 total yard edge. Syracuse will face off against UConn (Power Ranking: 20). UConn rolled last week 28-3 but they faced Central Connecticut and still gave the ball up 3 times (1 pick and 2 fumbles). I was so impressive with Syracuse in the first week I like them jumping out of the gate vs. a very weak UConn team.
AUBURN (1ST HALF) OVER SAN JOSE STATE
Line opened at -21.5 and now -23 and this is a sweet spot for the 1st half bet. Auburn comes into the season with a Pointwise power ranking of 49. They did what they were supposed to do in week 1 rolling a nobody 42-16 and racking up almost 500 yards of offense. San Jose State played Portland State and won 21-17 but check the stat line as they gave up a 24-17 FD deficit and 395-288 total yard deficit. If they only managed 288 yards and 17 FDs vs. Portland State Auburn should easily be able to control this game.
CONSIDERATION PLAY:
MICHIGAN STATE (1ST HALF) OVER AKRON
Akron needed OT to beat St. Francis-PA last week 30-23 and check the 19-18 FD margin and then a 98-189 rushing yard deficit along with a 374-443 total yard deficit. Michigan State won 35-13 over W. Michigan and held a 430-334 yard edge which isn’t amazing but they should thump Akron. The 1st half line should be somewhere less than laying -21 and expect Michigan State to get up quick.
Good Luck!
Haze