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College Football Bets for Week 5!


College Football Betting Picks from CheatSheetPros!


QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:

We are going to dive into Week 5 of the College Football Season and look over the new version of the College Football Betting sheet! I cleaned it up a little and then moved some number around and pulled in Player Projections & Season Averages for those who are betting on player props or trying to bankrupt Prize Picks for their soft lines!


BEST BETS FOR THE WEEKEND!

ARMY (-7.5) OVER BALL STATE

RUTGERS (+15.5) OVER OHIO STATE

BOSTON COLLEGE (+16) OVER CLEMSON

IOWA STATE (-34) OVER KANSAS


TIER 2 BETS FOR THE WEEKEND:

WAKE FOREST (-7) OVER LOUISVILLE

ARKANSAS (+18) OVER GEORGIA

APP STATE (-10) OVER GEORGIA STATE

SYRACUSE (-4.5) OVER FLORIDA STATE

USC (-7) OVER COLORADO

CHARLOTTE (+11)+[OVER 54] OVER ILLINOIS

MARSHALL / MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVER 65



NOW LET'S CHECK SOME OF THOSE GAMES OUT ON OUR NCAA BETTING SHEET!


ARMY (-7.5) OVER BALL STATE

My favorite and largest best of the weekend thus far. I love everything about this game! The "Cheat Line" is a custom line that has been tearing apart NFL so I moved it over to our CFB sheet. It does not stay true for large spread games and the teams have to be somewhat close but provides us with a bunch of valuable information. Our "Cheat Line" has Army -18 and Vegas only has -7.5 so that was the first thing that caught my eye. Second, was the yardage model also has a HUGE edge to Army by more than 150 yards. Third, the YPP (yard per point) for Army is 10.6 which is better than the league average at 15.5. That means this 150 yard edge should turn into 10-15 points. Now that also accounts for Ball State moving and scoring at a 15.5 YPP number (league average) but they are NOT they are at 23.4 which is horrible! ARMY's #2 rushing "O" with 344.5 YPG is going to ROLL over Ball State and their 111th ranked rushing "D" giving up 229.7 YPG. LAY IT!



RUTGERS (+15.5) OVER OHIO STATE

Now this game is a little tricky because the Algo Line is Ohio State -18 and the spread is only -15.5 but this is a game I turned to the "Cheat Line". The main reason is I thought Rutgers would of got thumped by Michigan last week and they did not, they played well and that "D" looked great. Rutgers "D" is solid coming in at 20th in rush yards per game allowed at only 97.3 and passing yards per game 167.3 (18th). Ohio State is giving up over 400 defensive yards per game and Rutgers only 264. Ohio State is putting up 559 on offensive yards and Rutgers only 304 but if they can put together any points I'm all over the +15.5 number. Michgan has a Pointwise Power Ranking of 57 and Ohio State is 59 so I put those two teams in the same tier. Last week Rutgers lost to Michigan 20-13 but took them in first downs 21-15 and rush yards 196 to 112. TAKE THE POINTS!



BOSTON COLLEGE (+16) OVER CLEMSON

Can you have any faith in a bet on Clemson laying -16? That would be a shocker for me! I grabbed the points as soon as it posted on my book. Clemson lost to GA TECH 14-8 at a -28 point favorite and then lost to NC State in OT as a -10.5 poin favorite by a score of 27-21. They are averaging a whopping 17.5 points per game over the last two games that were against winnable opponents! Just out of curiousity I want to check the Pointwise Power Rankings for those opponents and see how Boston College looks. Ga Tech is 45 and NC State is 52 and Boston College is 47. Pointwise also gives Boston College a +4 home field advantage which is one of the higher teams in CFB. The "Cheat Line" has this game as Boston College -10 and they are getting +16. Clemson has also been horrible on offensive with a 17.9 YPP (yard per point) which worse than league average. Yes that seems crazy and no I don't think BC should be a -10 favorite but that does mean that +16 is a good wager. Clemson (113th) in rushing "O" and 117th in pasing "O". TAKE THE POINTS!



IOWA STATE (-34) OVER KANSAS

This is a lopsided matchup so don't even bother with the "Cheat Line" as we have #122 vs. #20. I love lopsided matchups and this is one that I want to jump on. Iowa State @ HOME facing a terrible KU defense that is giving up 267 rushing yards per game (125th) and 280 passing yards per game (105th). Kansas is allowing 547 defensive yards per game and Iowa State has been putting up 437 in some tough matchups! We are projecting them in our yardage model to be somewhere between 492 and 540. So figure 500 yards with a YPP around 11 is 45 points. So could we see this game at 45-10, 45-7 or 45-3 or better? YES WE CAN! Okay! Let me try to convince you some more! Last week Baylor beat Iowa State 31-29... but.... did you know Iowa State took them in first downs 27-15, rushing yards 216-121 and passing yards 263 to 164 and total yards was 479 to 285! If they put up 479 yards against Baylor who has a Pointwise Power Rank of 49 what do you think they will do against Kansas who has a Pointwise Power Rank of only 22? BAR THE DOOR KATIE AND LAY THE POINTS!



WAKE FOREST (-7) OVER LOUISVILLE

"Cheat Line" has this game at Wake Forest -9 with around a 135 yard edge. Typically, this isn't a "play" due to the Vegas line close to our line but I made it a T2 play because why not? Wake Forest is hot right now as they went on the road last week to Virginia (Power Rank 42) as a +3.5 dog and beat them by 20 points 37-17. Louisville plays FSU (Power Rank 39) and let them put up 453 yards and only beat them 31-23. Both team clicking on "O" putting up 417 and 436 yards per game but Wake allowing less on "D" 480-365 which is the edge here. Also, I like that Wake has a +24 edge as they are scoring 38 PPG while allowing 13.7 and Louisville is scoring 32.3 PPG but allowing 33.7. WAKE & BAKE!



USC (-7) OVER COLORADO

This game jumped out when I was running numbers as the "Cheat Line" has us at USC -15 and Vegas only has -7. After digging in a little further I decided this game was going to make the T2 cut of plays for Saturday. Algo line has -17, Cheat Line has -15 so I'll lay the 7. Colorado has the 106th ranked "O" putting up only 191 yards per game but they have played some semi-tough teams. USC has the 27th ranked "O" putting up 425 yards per game. Both teams giving up 389 and 391 on defense. We have this game projected around 28-13 but let's do some basic math. If we give Colorado a BUMP from their 191 yards per game up to 300 which is a middle ground at league average YPP of 15.5 that is around 20 points. But they are putting up a YPP of 28.6 so that would be around 9-10 points. So let's safely say CU will have between 9-20 points. USC is putting up 425 and CU is giving up almost 400 so we can safely say 400-420 yards is a likely outcome. USC has a YPP of 13.1 but league average is 15.5 so if we use 15.5 that is 26 poins and if we use 13 that is 31 points. So this game could easily be 31-21, 28-20, 28-17, 24-10 and safely cover the spread. LAY IT!



CHARLOTTE (+11) PARLAYED WITH OVER 54 [PAYS +250]

I was leaning Charlotte +11 here and still like it as "Cheat Line" as this game CHAR -3 and we are getting +11 but after digging into the game I feel like if Charlotte is able to score at will they will be unable to stop Illinois on the other side thus cranking this OVER 54. I would recommend 1 unit and parlayed this would be +2.5 units. Less risk with a higher payout on a likely outcome! You notice the "Total DEF Flag!" in the top right corner? That is new this week and I've noticed games where the combined teams are allowing almost 1,000 yards on defensive become shootouts and score a shit ton of points! 954 total defensive yards allowed on the season by league average YPP number is 61.5 points and our model projects this game at 33-30 for a total of 63ish points. Illinois played a 13-9 games last week and 20-17 the week prior while Charlotte played a 42-39 game last week where they put up 572 yards and allowed 502 yards! They had 39 first downs in that game which is CRAZY! Charlotte can really move the ball and score some points!



MARSHALL / MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVER 65

Speaking of "Total DEF Flag!" I noticed my next play also popped the same flag! Marshall just played App State last week 31-30 and they lost to ECU 42-38 the week prior so they are scoring and giving up yards. Middle Tennessee is coming off a 42-39 loss to Charlotte last week so they are in the same boat. What I LOVE about this over is that these teams are 8th and 27th in passing yards per game putting up 355 and 284 per game. Passing is quick strike scoring which leads to big totals! The teams are also allowing the 78th and 94th most passing yards per game. Our model has this 38-31 putting up 68 total points sliding over that total of 65 in a burner!



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Thanks for reading & good luck!

Haze