College Football Bets for the weekend of September 17th, 2022!
QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
Excited to get some picks out now that we have a couple games of stats we can dig through! I included a screen shot from the College Football CheatSheet so you can see some of the stats I'm talking about! I just marked "1st Half" on the games where I'm taking the 1H as the lines are not posted at this time. I wanted to get "My Picks" out before the RED SHEET drops on Thursday so I don't have any bias and if my picks match then we can HAMMER IT!
UAB / GEORGIA SOUTHERN OVER 55.5
Line opened at 55 and now 55.5 with 62%/67% on the over. What I like about this game is the “Total Defense Flag” that pops up on the cheatsheet (See Top Right Corner). These two teams combine for giving up around 965 total yards this season. They rank 121st and 95th in rushing yards allowed per game so don’t expect any big defensive stops. UAB played a slow game against Liberty but plowed Alabama A&M 59-0. Georgia Southern plowed Morgan State 59-7 and then beat NEBRASKA 45-42 last week which led to their head coach getting fired! Our models have this game between 57-77 total points so if we split the middle we get around 67.
GEORGIA (1st HALF) OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
Line opened -23.5 and now -24.5. Georgia opens the season with an 82-3 point differential in just two games this season. Samford wasn’t expected to do much but Oregon (ranked 35th) got ripped up 49-3! Georgia is putting up 571 yards on offensive and allowing only 313 on defense. South Carolina sits 77th on offense and 68th on defense. They lost by 2 touchdowns last week to Arkansas (one of our posted plays!). PFF has this around -26, FO -29 and TRanks -21 and our model has this at Georgia (-38) for a huge difference! I’m attacking this game with a 1st half spread that should release somewhere around -14.
UTAH (1ST HALF) OVER SAN DIEGO STATE
Line opened at -21 and still -21. I don’t mind taking the game line but these are perfect spots I like sneaking in a 1st half play. This gives you the opportunity to lock up a quick “W” or come back and hammer the 2nd half if things are going south to start the game. San Diego State is awful losing by 18 to 85th ranked Arizona but they did manage to beat an unranked Idaho State team 38-7! They rank 125th in “O” and 104th on “D”. Utah lost to a surprisingly good Florida team 29-26 but then rolled South Utah 73-7. In the game against Florida both teams were close statwise with Utah leading a 25-23 FD edge and just behind on the 446-451 total yard edge. To get an idea of the San Diego State team I’m going to look at the game vs. Arizona. Arizona took a 25-14 FD edge and 461-232 total yard edge winning 38-20. Utah should roll!
UCLA / SOUTH ALABAMA OVER 59.5
Line opened at 59 and now 59.5. South Alabama knocked off one of my favorite plays in the Chippies last week so I’m very familiar with their team. These two rank 13th and 2nd in offensive yards and 12th and 10th in passing yards per game. Combined they average a whopping 1,128 yards per game! Wow! UCLA hasn’t played anyone so don’t get too excited but they have a 90-24 point edge and South Alabama has an 86-31 point edge. Our models project this game around 56-61 total points but I think that is low with two teams that are highly efficient and can throw the ball.
UCF / FLORIDA ATLANTIC OVER 62
Line opened at 58 and quickly shot up to 62. This game is a little more difficult to handicap but I like the over. Florida Atlantic has scored 43, 38 and 42 points so far this year so they are at least clicking on the offensive side of the ball and putting up points averaging almost 480 yards per game. UCF rolled 56-10 their first week in the rollover game and then they played Louisville and were held scoreless in the second half losing 20-14. If Florida Atlantic can move the ball then UCF will need to keep up and since they allowed 41 points to OHIO (ranked 112th) I’m sure UCF can light up the scoreboard and turn this into a back and forth game.
MARSHALL (1ST HALF) OVER BOWLING GREEN
Line opened at -18 and now -16.5. Marshall just knocked off Notre Dame 26-21 last week and now they face a Bowling Green team who ranks 121st in the nation and just lost to Eastern Kentucky 59-57. Bowling Green is giving up 626 yards per game and ranks 126th and 125th in rushing yards and passing yards allowed. On the offensive side of the ball they rank 129th. UCLA is a better team than Marshall but more comparable than E. Kentucky. UCLA won 45-17 and held a massive 29-9 FD edge and 626-162 total yard edge. Bowling Green only had 37 total rushing yards on 25 carries. Marshall isn’t a powerhouse but they ran for 219 yards against Notre Dame and hung with them 21-22 on first downs and led the total yards 364-351.
OLE MISS (1ST HALF) OVER GEORGIA TECH
Line opened at -14.5 and now -16.5 and this is a good spot to get a first half line under -10. 92% of the cash and 85% of the tickets are on the Ole Miss side at the time of writing this up. Our model has this one pegged around (-27) with a projected score of 36-10. Georgia Tech struggled to move the ball against a good Clemson defense but allowed 41 points to the same Clemson offense that struggles. Ole Miss hasn’t played anyone worth digging into this year but they an 88-13 point edge so they are clicking on offense. Georgia Tech beat Western Carolina but check giving up 26 first downs and 390 yards in that game! Without much data for Ole Miss riding with them vs. a struggling Ga Tech team!