College Football Sports Betting Picks from CheatSheetPros!
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HOW DID WE DO IN LAST WEEKS ARTICLE?
We ended up going 5-3 (62.5%) after dropped 2 of the first 3 games. They ended up looking like this:
CINCY (-28) > NAVY *Loss
OHIO STATE (-21) > INDIANA *WINNER (54-7 Final)
UAB (-23) > RICE *Loss
TEXAS A&M (-21) > SOUTH CAROLINA *WINNER (44-14 Final)
MISS STATE (-21) > VANDY *WINNER
ALABAMA (-25) > TEN *WINNER (52-24 Final)
MINNESOTA (-5) > MARYLAND *WINNER
IOWA STATE (-7) > OSU *Loss
CINCINNATI -25 > TULANE
Tulane is a terrible team and Cincy should roll this up after the poor performance last week. PFF even has this game around -35.5 and our algo has it closer to -24 so when there is a large difference I like to split the middle so that would give us around a -30 spread for Cincy. In the bottom right you can see the new skew testing model has this projected around 47-16 for a 31 point game. Tulane is allowing 539 yards on defense and ranks 116th in rush yards allowed and 128th in pass yards allowed. CINCY ROLLS!
FLORIDA STATE (+9.5) > CLEMSON
Clemson has a solid “D” this year as they allow the 30th least rushing yards and 66th least passing yards per game for a total of 356.5 total yards on defense but that “O” has been awful. They are 117th in passing yards per game and 84th in rushing yards per game. They average 294 offensive yards per game which is keeping games close so grabbing points is the way to go. Clemson is also WINLESS ATS THIS YEAR! Clemson last 5 games only scored 17, 17, 98, 21 and 14 points and we are getting +9.5 on the other side? FSU has scored 59, 35 and 33 points last 3. We projected both teams to have around a 16.5 YPP and around 40-50 additional yards on the FSU side so taking the points in this spot.
MINNESOTA (-7.5) > NORTHWESTERN
Both teams have a common opponent in the last 3 weeks and that is Nebraska. NW was rolled by NEB 56-7 around 3 weeks ago and MIN beat NEB 30-23 two weeks ago so that peaks my interest to look a little further into this game. The good thing about this game is that PFF has it at -18.5 and our algo has -12 so both models have this covering the low spread. The main key here is the MINNY DEF which is allowing the 5th least amount of rushing yards and 62nd least passing yards for a total of only 312 yards on defense. We projected NW to run at a 16.94 YPP so even if they get the 312 yards that is only 18.4 points and they average 19.0 per game so that’s pretty close. Now the question is can Minny “O” get to 27+? We have them projected at a 15 YPP but NW is allowing 461 yards on “D” so that puts them around 30-31 points in a perfect scenario. Last week MIN lead Maryland in FD 26-14, rush yards 326-79 and total yards 451-268. NW had a tough game against Michigan and were outgained 457-240 in total yards and 28-10 in FDs and allowed Michigan to run for 294 rushing yards. MINNY is 22nd in rushing yards per game so I think they get to the 30 spot and cover this line!
IOWA STATE (-7) > WEST VIRGINIA
I debated an SMU play here but will save it for the YouTube video when I hit the extra games. PFF has this -10.5 and our algo has it even higher at -12 and the new skew model that I’m testing has this projected around 32-18 with Iowa State winning by 14. Iowa State holds the edge on both sides of the ball as they are better in offensive yards per game at 445-368 and allow fewer defensive yards per game 400-261. We project both teams around a 14.7 to 15.5 YPP so in the same range but we have Iowa State putting up over 450 total yards and West Virginia only around 300. Iowa State played a great game last week against a ranked OSU and lead them in total yards 374-332 and FD 18-16 and OSU has a 56 power ranking and they get a much easier WV team with a power ranking of only 46. Iowa State has only allowed 21, 20 and 7 points L3 games while scoring 24, 33 and 59. LAY IT!
WAKE FOREST (-16.5) > DUKE
WF comes in with a power ranking of 50 and Duke is 30 making WF roughly a 20 point better team on a neutral field. Last week Wake Forest rolled up Army 70-56 putting up 640 yards of offense. Duke has been on a downward slide losing their last game 48-0 to Virginia, then 31-27 to Ga Tech and 38-7 vs. UNC. That is a 34-117 point deficit last 3 games for you math wizards out there. Our algo has this at WF -23 and PFF has -14.5 so you can split it and it’s around the Vegas line. Going against the downward slide of Duke.
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