MLB "Prize Pick" plays for Friday from CheatSheetPros!
YouTube Video Breakdown: https://youtu.be/CqdfttlEgEQ
QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
Yesterday was great hitting both of our TOP 2 plays with Sandy Alcantara over 18.5 pitching outs and Austin Riley over 1.5 bases in Colorado! Looking to get back into action today with some solid plays that are jumping out! I love several of the over/under 2.5 earned run props but they were not posted when I started this article so I'll post those in the chat/facebook group later today after I get some more research time!
Gerrit Cole - OVER 8.0 strikeouts (*CheatSheet Favorite!*)
After struggling to start the season Cole has been MONEY putting up 10, 11, 5, 9 and 10 strikeouts over his last 5 starts. He is on a 4-1 "OVER" tear and facing a DET team that has a 24.1% strikeout rate over the last two weeks. I like the push of 8 so only a 7 or less gives us a loss on the card but his margin to go OVER this number is huge with 10 and 11 the last two games!
Dane Dunning - OVER 4.5 strikeouts (*CheatSheet Favorite!*)
Dane Dunning is on a 7-0 "OVER" run for his strikeout prop of 4.5. You can see above that he has been OVER that number each of the last 7 games and he even got over that against Oakland tossing only 4.1 innings. He was also OVER this number against HOU, ATL, NYY and BOS which are tough teams to face. Seattle is no comparison! Look at the screen shot below the projected starting lineup has 4 hitters with strikeout rates of 29%, 34%, 26% and 36%!
Logan Gilbert - OVER 18.5 pitching outs
His last 3 starts he has went 21 pitching outs (i.e. 7.0 innings pitched) and that was against great teams (HOUSTON, BOSTON & TORONTO) and now he faces a solid Texas team but they are not in the same class as the last 3 matchups he has faced.
Nathan Eovaldi - OVER 5.5 strikeouts
You can see he has 7 of his 10 starts going OVER this number but a few of those 6K games he was only over by a slim margin of 0.5 strikeouts! Oakland is not a force he has to worry about as they have 5 of their top 7 projected hitters with massive K rates that he should have no issues with.
Zach Eflin - over 17.5 pitching outs
I like these OVER pitching out props as you can see. He has been over in 4 of the last 5 games. What impresses me is that he went OVER with 18 pitching outs in his last start @NYM where he gave up 7 ER so they are not afraid to leave him in the game.
James Kaprielian - UNDER 81.5 pitches thrown
I have to give you at least 1 UNDER play or I'm not doing my job! Kappy has been UNDER this pitch count in 3 of the last 4 games and those were against weaker opponents (Texas, Seattle and Detroit) but tonight he faces the Boston Red Sox who are scoring 6.2 runs per game over the last two weeks and rank #1 in wRC+.
Jose Urquidy - OVER 92.5 pitches thrown
No in love with this play but don't mind it if you are on the fence. He has been OVER in each of his last 3 games and the Royals are hardly a tough opponent.
NO RUNS FIRST INNING BETS:
My favorite is MIL/SDP NRFI as you can see Vegas has this at -162 so if you can get a lower prop number that is a great pick! This one is close to our Sandy Alcantara game NRFI that hit from yesterday. That game is also a combined 9-1 (90%) for the NO! I don't mind these CLE/BAL and SEA/TEX games either as they have hitting at an 80% clip and it's a quick sweat to win or lose your flex cards!