MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
Buckle up for this massive 15 game main slate tonight! So many players to consider so let’s jump right in and get started!
HIGH-END PITCHING TIER:
GERRIT COLE (12700) – Complete stud that is almost guaranteed the win. 3 of his last 5 games have been over 30 DK points and pushing 40 for a ceiling vs. a terrible CHW team. 5 starts in a row with 2 ER or less. ERA of 2.87, K9 rate of 13.0, allowing an opponent average of .200. Allowing a .184 average to LHH and .214 vs. RHH. If you can afford him then you are fine to fit him in. He may not win you a GPP as you can push 4x with some other guys but he is a safe 2x with 3x very likely.
LANCE LYNN (11300) – Consistent as they come! Last 4 starts are 25-35 DK points. His has put up 8, 10, 8 and 12 Ks in those. Facing TOR they are hitting .259 as a team and scoring 6.9 runs per game over the last week. BVP is only 23 team ABS and they are hitting .174 off him with a 35% strikeout rate. Lynn has a 3.21 ERA on the road and allowing a low .231 batting average.
CHRIS SALE (10700) – When he is on point he is one of the best. More risk with him tonight vs. a tough CLE team but he has 50 DK point ceiling. He is coming off 46.8 DK points vs. LAA where he went 8.0 innings – 0 ER – 13 strikeouts! CLE is hitting .342 off Sale through a whopping 114 team Abs with a low 16% strikeout rate. That scares me! CLE also has a much lower 17.6% strikeout rate vs. LHP. I’ll still own some but don’t lock him into all your lineups!
MATT BOYD (10300) – With all the options tonight I love coming down to Boyd who should be less owned. Facing a horrible SEA team. Boyd got roughed up vs. KC but we called it and said to FADE him as he was the highest priced pitcher and gave up 5 ER in only 2.2. Those pesky Royals! Prior to that he has 6 of 7 starts in a row over 20 DK points giving you a safe floor. He has also put up 8-12 strikeouts in each of those! He just faced SEA and put up 29 DK points going 6.1 innings with 10 strikeouts! Facing SEA they are scoring 2.8 runs per game and hitting a lowly .213 as a team over the last week, 2-8 in their L10 games and have lost 3 in a row. Big night coming for Boyd!
MIDDLE TIER PITCHING OPTIONS:
ZACK WHEELER (9400) – 15.0 shutout innings across his last two starts with 12 Ks puts him in play in a game they need to win! Facing a ATL team who is also hot as of late going 17-13 in their L30 games and scoring 7.3 runs per game over the last week. They have also hit Wheeler at a .351 clip over 57 team Abs. Wheeler has a road xFIP of 3.60 and allows a .262 average.
JACK FLAHERTY (9000) – KC is dangerous but if he can catch them on a bad night he can rack up some points. He is coming off 5 of last 6 starts over 24 DK points and pushed 33 and 36 in his last two starts going 14.0 innings, 0 ER and 19 strikeouts! Woah! Solid 2.89 ERA at home but he is in KC tonight and has a 4.76 road ERA. He has been much better as of late so don’t mind using him. 14.3% swinging strike rate, K9 ratio over 10 and allowing an overall batting average of .218. Again this isn’t a mediocre start so don’t worry you’ll know quickly if he is going to be amazing or shit. KC will either get to him fast and knock him out of the game or he will toss 7-8 innings of 2 run ball and a bunch of Ks. The bottom half the the KC lineup is ice cold with Bubba Starling, Meibrys Viloria and Nicky Lopez.
MAD BUM (8600) – Always in play for me with 5 of last 6 starts over 19 DK points and he is priced fair. He has great home splits and I’m sure he is happy to be in a Giants uniform right now after all the trade talks. He has a 4.64 ROAD ERA but at home is drops to a solid 3.08. His wOBA drops from .340 down to .260, whip goes from 1.34 down to 0.98 and the batting average allowed goes from .279 down to .223. BVP history is great with only 37 team Abs they are only hitting .162 off Mad Bum and batting .246 as a team over the last week.
BRENDAN MCKAY (8100) – Only 17 and 19 DK points in his last two but went 10.1 innings combined with 6 ERs (not great) but put up 5 strikeouts! (really great!). A surprising 13.4% swinging strike rate he has a 4.55 ERA which isn’t really great but his xFIP jumps off the game at 3.76. He also has a 2.52 xFIP on the road (limited innings) and a K9 ratio over 10 and allowing a .244 batting average. Padres have been hot scoring 6.0 runs per game hitting .261 over the last week but he is cheap enough you can toss him into a couple GPPs.
GRIFFIN CANNING (7800) – A couple struggling starts then 28.5 DK points in his last time on the mound going 6 shutout innings with 7 Ks. Mainly a matchup play as PIT has been horrible. 3-17 in their L20 games. Canning allows a nice .217 batting average at home with a 9.5 K9 ratio.
DUSTIN MAY (7500) – Coming off 5.2 innings of work with 1 ER and 7 strikeouts for 21 DK points. Priced fair.
MAX FRIED (6700) – Tough matchup but coming off starts of 26, 21, 14 and 22 DK points. His last start @ MIN he dropped 10 strikeouts in 5.1 innings! Cheap! Home ERA of a nice 3.75 but his xFIP is even better at 3.22. Also allowing a 1.21 whip and .268 batting average. 33 team Abs and they are hitting .242 of him. Facing the hottest team right now in the NYM they are scoring 5.4 runs per game and hitting .259 as a team and rank 4th in our L10 game power rankings. They are 16-4 in their L20 games.
PUNT PITCHERS:
JOE ROSS (5500) – Struggled but hopefully he is turning a corner with his last two starts putting up 25 and 18 DK points. He has 11.1 innings with 0 ER and 8 strikeouts. Stats are rough to look at but we are just hoping he has turned a corner and getting back into form. Matchup vs. CIN isn’t great with them hitting .307 as a team over the L7 days and scoring 6.2 runs per game. GPP only.
YUSEI KIKUCHI (5300) – He was priced as high as 8900 earlier in the year and now down to a $5.3k guy? Yea I’ll take a shot with him. Coming off 21 DK points going 5 innings with 1 ER and 8 strikeouts he has a solid matchup vs. DET. He just faced DET on July 26th and put up 15 DK points (3x value) going 6.2 with 2 ER and 4 Ks. Numbers are garbage so I’m not going to sell you on those. His matchup puts him on the board for us facing DET who is 29th in our L10 game power rankings and scoring only 4.4 runs per game. DET is also 9-14 vs. LHP with a 24.1% strikeout rate as a team.
GLENN SPARKMAN (4800) – Sparky was our “Home” monster and then Cleveland crushed him for 8 ER in only 5 innings. Ouchy! Still love the stats and think he is a great GPP punt today. He did have 42 DK points vs. CHW and went 9.0 innings – 0 ER and 8 strikeouts. That upside from a sub $5k pitcher is amazing! The games he did struggle they were brutal matchups - @BOS, @MIN, CLE, @CLE – tough lineups! Still has a home ERA of 3.00 with a 1.12 whip and allowing a .244 average.
STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:
NYY vs. John Means – Remember our article with NYY vs. LHP? NYY have a wRC+ (which is a snapshot of how the team is doing as a whole) of 113.1 vs. RHP but when they face a LHP they fly up to a 160.5. There is NO OTHER TEAM in baseball with a wRC+ vs. a pitcher hand that high! NYY just pounded him for 4 ER in 3.2 innings before he was pulled. I expect this stack to be chalky and especially because it’s cheap as F&*K! You can get the top 5 highest price NYY hitters are only a 4680 average and you can get that down to the 4400’s if you pivot of a couple guys. I expect a stud stack like this to run 5,000 average (like Houston). NYY scoring 7.6 runs per game and hitting .279 as a team over the last week and rank 5th in our L10 game power rankings.
HOUSTON – You are likely only going to be able to afford a mini-stack here or run a 5 man stack with our GPP pitchers and hope to catch lightning in a bottle. Nova has an ERA/xFIP all around 4.80-4.90 and allowing a .294 overall batting average and also the same vs. RHH and vs. LHH. Houston is the only team that has hitters 1-7 (confirmed lineup FYI) with our highest grade. Correa, Alvarez and Yuli are RED HOT right now!
ARIZONA @ COORS – Zona is 10th in our L10 power rankings and hitting .273 as a team and scoring 4.7 runs per game over the last week. They are in Colorado so that is already inflated but they also smash Jon Gray at a .356 clip through 73 team Abs and a low 19% strikeout rate. They are priced up but you can pivot off Marte at 5700 and take the next run of guys and get down to a 4640 average per hitter. Colorado also has the 28th ranked bullpen when Gray comes out of the game.
CINCY / WASHINGTON – I may just game stack this because I think this could explode or at least has the potential. Game total is 10.5 with 89% of the Vegas money on the over. We have the #6 (CIN) and #13 (WAS) team in our L10 game power rankings facing off. CIN is hitting .307 as a team and WAS is hitting .286 over the last week both while scoring 6.2 and 5.3 runs respectively. CIN is the side I lean on because a 5 man stack is 4260 and that is DIRT CHEAP! You can even get that number down under 4k per hitter. Now above I did write up Joe Ross as a GPP play and he might be turning a corner. However I will be on both sides of this. I’ll likely have Ross in 1-3 of my lineups (likely Houston/NYY stacks) and then I’ll also have a CIN stack (because it’s cheap as F&*K). I think the story is out on this Aquino guy, we were playing him in the 3k range and he was going 10x value every night. I would lock him in and then run 5 man stacks naked and it was easy money for a few days. Still only 4600. Eugenio, Aquino are two guys that have to be in your stack. When Joe Ross comes out they get the 25th ranked bullpen since July 1st with an xFIP at 4.99! ((NOTE: Nationals get Alex Wood who has a 5.65 ERA and allowing a .322 batting average and then the 26th ranked bullpen.))
**BONUS: CHEATSHEET QUICK STACK CHART - This is a quick way to find stacks when you are short on time. I tried to mark the teams & pitchers I'm looking at so I can show you what I'm looking for and what I see at a quick glance. The top teams are STACKS I tossed out DET because they rank 29th in our L10 power rankings. You notice all the top stack teams have pitchers with rough splits and horrible bullpen grades and those are what we are looking for. The bottom where you see the "X" are the pitchers I'm looking at as they are facing teams that have a weak L10 game power ranking.
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Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze