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MLB Breakdown by Haze March 28th!


MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!

Welcome to the main opening day! I’m excited for the next 7 months of baseball action to begin! After 14 hours over the last 2 days I finally got our MLB sheet re-vamped and posted! Right now we are looking at numbers from last season so these are going to change over the first month of the season and then we will usually pull the last 30 days data so we can see larger differences. Also the MLB Optimizer is still being built but hopefully we are around a week out but just wanted to pass along the information that it is coming!


<< I’m going to combine both slates today so I can get this put together quicker. >>


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PITCHING BREAKDOWN:


Eric Lauer - $5,600 DK / $7,200 FD

His numbers from last year were awful so I’m going to skip writing anything about “last year” and tell you what he’s done so far this spring. Lauer tosses 10 scoreless innings with 12 Ks and only 3 BBs. Keep in mind those were likely against split squads but having a solid spring and priced sub $6k on DK is a great punt option for us to fit in some big hitters. He also gets to face a terrible SFG squad who last year had a 23.3% strikeout rate vs. LHP and they are bottom 5 (for the all day slate) in batting average (.235), wOBA (.285) and wRC+ (78.5) vs. LHP. He could get shelled and I wouldn’t be surprised but for his price I think he has a solid 3x value play today.


Masahiro Tanaka - $9,300 DK / $8,500 FD

Tanaka also dominated the spring with a whopping 20 strikeouts and only 3 walks across 15 innings! Now he gets to face a BAL squad who is projected to be one of the worst two teams in the entire league this year. BAL also had a 23.6% strikeout rate vs. RHP last year. Tanaka held a 3.75 ERA throughout last season but at home he had a strong 3.13 xFIP number with a 0.98 whip. He had an 8.8 K9 rate on the road but a solid 9.6 K9 rate at home. Does anyone think the NYY won’t win today? That’s almost a lock for points giving him a solid floor.


Aaron Nola - $9,700 DK / $10,400 FD

I love some Nola today! With Scherzer and Verlander breaking $11,000 on DK I can save $1,300 and get Nola, yes please! Nola held a solid 2.37 ERA last year and an eye popping 9.5 K9 rate and a sub 1 whip (0.97)! He also kept the opponent batting average at home down to 0.177. Most pitchers have a weakness to a RHH or LHH but Nola is strong vs. both. He has a 2.32 ERA vs. LHH and 2.42 ERA vs. RHH, His K9 rate to each is 9.8 and 9.2 and his whip was 1.02 and 0.93. I’m looking for a strong opener at home for Nola and the Phillies!


Strong FADE: Mad Bum - $8,800 DK / $9,300 FD

Let me start with letting you know that I like Mad Bum and hope he has a bounce back year but I just don’t think it’s going to happen. His spring stats are awful other than the 20 Ks in 20 innings. He had a 1-3 record with an ERA over 8.00. He held a 3.26 ERA last year but his Road ERA jumped to a whopping 4.97 with a 4.74 xFIP. He was solid vLHH but vs. RHH he had a 4.56 xFIP, 6.9 K9 rate (vs. 10.7 vs. LHH) and a .304 wOBA. His price tag is just too high on a team that isn’t projected to be very strong this year.


HITTING BREAKDOWN:

Stacking is the best way to go in baseball. Find a solid 1 or 2 hitters that you like with either solid BVP numbers are positive splits and then add in a couple guys ahead or behind them. I typically like to mini-stack 3 guys in a lineup but mainly I will try to get 4 batters in a lineup together with no more than 1 gap between them. With limited stats I’m just going to hit on some quick guys with solid numbers. I haven’t seen any lineups yet today so if they are not in the lineup just dis-regard them.


SOLID BVP HISTORY: (Keep in mind you need 30-40 at bats before most people will take into account any BVP numbers but I’m listing them here so you can decide for yourself.)


Jose Peraza – Taillon is projected to be a solid pitcher this year. Peraza has owned him so far in their meetings hitting a whopping .545 going 12 for 22 and only 2 strikeouts!

Marcell Ozuna – vs. Chacin he is 6 for 11 hitting .545 with 4 RBIs.

Travis Shaw – Shaw is 4 for 8 vs. Mikolas with NO strikeouts.

Rhys Hoskins – 5 for 10 with only 1 strikeout.

Marwin Gonzales – Kluber is a stud don’t get me wrong but Marwin has shown great BVP numbers and he is only $3k on DK. Marwin is hitting a whopping .455 with 10 hits in 22 Abs, 2 HR, 6 RBIs and only 4 Ks.

Bryce Harper – Facing Julio Teheran he is hitting a whopping .450 with 18 hits in 40 Abs, 8 bombs and 19 RBIs and only 5 Ks.


HITTING STACKS:


NYY vs. BAL (Chalk) <Fade>

This is super chalk so I’m likely going to fade it for GPPs because it will be to high owned for me. If you are going to use a hitter I would take Aaron Judge. He has a wRC+ of 143.6 vs. RHP and he has had a tremendous spring. Possibly pair him with some of the other cheaper hitter like Voit/Bird/Andujar to be contrarian. Stanton is only 2 for 19 with 6 Ks vs. Cashner. Stanton crushes LHP and is so-so vs RHP. Yes Cashner sucks and I have money on the NYY to win but if you are trying to beat 100,000 people you can’t eat chalk in MLB with the high variance. Stanton also has a 31.1% strikeout rate vs. RHP which is 5% higher than vs. LHP. Judge (who I will play today) is also only 2 for 11 vs. Cashner and Tulo is 3 for 18.


Phillies!

So if I go on the MLB cheatsheet and sort by xFIP split and then look across BVP Philly comes to the top of the list. NYY vs. Cashner is #1 but BVP numbers aren’t good so we can get some lower ownership here on the Phils. We talked about Harper above who is 18 for 40 with 8 bombs and 19 RBIs vs. Julio Teheran. Odubel is 8 for 32 with 3 HRs, McCutchen is 5 for 18 with 2 HRs, Segura is 5 for 15 with NO strikeouts, Hoskins is 5 for 10 with only 1 K. These BVP numbers look much better.


SNEAKIER STACKS:

Padres vs. MadBum – MadBum has a road xFIP of 4.74 and these bats are much cheaper. You’d have to build around Renfroe (if playing) who is 5 for 13 with 2 HRs, Manny Machado, Kinsler and Tatis. Wil Myers if 5 for 38 with 11 Ks so let’s just avoid him for now.

Oakland vs. Cahill – Cahill has an ERA of 3.76 but his split ERA is a whopping 6.41! Not much BVP but you can build around the stud Khris Davis and hopefully get another lower owned stack. Piscotty, Chapman and Profar all have a wRC+ over 100 vs. RHP so look at those guys if they are in the lineup.


Thank you for reading and good luck!

Haze

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