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MLB Breakdown + Sports Betting Picks!


MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros!


QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:

MLB Blitz continues headed into the holiday week! Yesterday we had Shane Bieber who went 5.0 innings with 10 Ks, Glasnow who went 5.1 with 3 ER but saved the day with 9 Ks and then our punt Antone who was cheap and went 5.0 with 1 ER and 6 Ks. We stacked White Sox (8 runs) and Tigers (10 runs) in our article. I’ve been working hard on the NFL CheatSheet for 2020 and excited to mix in some NFL breakdowns this year!

PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:

MAX SCHERZER – I could see a full “fade” here on this short slate if you want to be different for GPP. His last 3 starts he has put up 14, 34 and 7 DK points but his BABIP is .365 so he is going to start getting a little more luck on his side. He has a 3.29 xFIP and allowing a .260 average. Priced at 10,400 on DK there is some risk here today with his recent form but with no many options you could go either way.

ZAC GALLEN – Now we come down to 9200 for Gallen who has a tough matchup vs. this SFG team that is 6th in their last 10 game power rankings and rank top 5 in our all team stats over the last 14 days. He has been stellar this year and coming into the start in great form. He has put up 28, 24, 19, 27 and 22 DK points in his last 5 starts. His ERA is 1.80 but his xFIP indicates it should be closer to 3.67 which is still solid. Only allowing a .182 batting average.

DINELSON LAMET – We get a cheap price tag on Lamet today at only 8800 on DK. His last two starts he was priced at 9900 and 9800. Lamet has a solid K9 ratio at 11.5 this year and was 12.9 last year. He is facing a COL team that is striking out a whopping 26% of the time over the last 14 days and he is a -180 favorite. Padres should win this game and Lamet should get the win which is +4 points. Lamet has been sliding a little as he put up 37.8 DK points, then fell down to 25 and 22 and then 12 and 17 on his last two starts. He has upside with his 37.8 DK points going 6.2 innings, 1 ER and 11Ks for a high this year.

ZACH PLESAC – Only 7600 today on DK and has a soft matchup vs. KC. Plesac has put up 25, 28, 19 and 38 DK points in his last 4 starts and those combined for 27.0 innings, 4 ERs and 30 strikeouts. He just faced KC in his last start in KC and went 6.0 innings, 1 ER and 6 strikeouts. CLE is a heavy favorite today and has the 3rd best bullpen behind him so he should lock down the win today. Love the matchup and price tag!

BRAD KELLER – If you want to pivot off Plesac or even match up with him you can use Brad Keller at only 6700. Keller has a 1.93 ERA this year and allowing a .177 batting average. There are some red flags though as he has an xFIP of 4.27 with a BABIP of only .230. I do like his BVP history vs. CLE as he has faced this team for 56 Abs and only allowing a .161 batting average with a 27% strikeout rate. GPP only.

KEVIN GAUSMAN – Gausman is the cheapest pitcher on the slate today at only 6100! He has put up 19, 18, 24, 22, 14 and 16 DK points over his last 6 starts and that is great value on his price tag of 6.1k. I mean across the last 4 in terms of X value you are roughly looking at 3x, 3x, 4x and 4x. Scherzer isn’t likely to push 4x today, I mean that would be 42+ DK points and he has only broke 30 DK points twice this entire season. Gausman has a good matchup vs. ARI who ranks 25th in the last 10 game power rankings and they fall into our “Low/Mid” range for fantasy points. He has faced them for 75 Abs and allowing a .240 batting average and a 27% strikeout rate. 5 of the projected starting lineup hitters are batting below .205. You can’t ask for a better matchup for a punt pitcher if you want to stack up some studs today!


STACKS TO CONSIDER:

SAN DIEGO PADRES VS. KYLE FREELAND (27TH BULLPEN)Love this Padres who rank #1 in our last 10 game power rankings and they are 1st in team batting average, 3rd in runs per game and 3rd in OBP+ISO over the last 14 days. Stack is expensive with 4700-5000 average per player if you want all the studs in the lineup. Kyle Freeland is allowing a .295 batting average with an ERA over 4.00 this year. No everyone is going to argue that it includes Coors home starts so let’s look at the entire year last year on the road. He shows up with a 4.61 ERA and allowing a high 1.43 whip and .259 batting average through 56.2 innings. His last two starts he has given up 8 ER and only lasted a combined 6.1 innings with 19 hits. Vegas has the Padres projected at 4.9 runs and our model has them at 5.6 runs so we like the stack.

HOUSTON ASTROS VS. FRANKIE MONTAS (2ND BULLPEN)Montas is a great pitcher and last year had a 2.63 ERA and allowing a low .230 batting average and has a great bullpen behind him. Vegas has Houston projected at only 4.2 runs and we have them at 5.1 so this could be a sneaky stack that is cheap! Montas has had two rough starts in a row. He gave up 4 ER in only 4.2 vs. LAA and then he gave up 9 ER in only 1.2 innings @ ARI. Houston is 4280 per player for the top 5 man graded stack. Springer, Reddick, Gurriel and Correa all over 10+ Abs off Montas and batting over .300.


SPORTS BETTING PICKS:

On Saturday we posted some picks with a play on Nationals +250 parlayed with over 9.5 and it easily covered with Nationals winning 10-4 for a +635 payout! Yesterday we added in 5 games that you could bet, parlay or play the run line and they ALL WON going 4-0 and we gave you two pitcher props taking the Bieber OVER and Glasnow OVER in strikeouts and they both easily covered for another 2 WINS! When I post games I let you know which sides I like and why but you have to decide the risk/reward vs parlaying them or betting them outright. I typically don’t straight bet games that are -200 or higher.

ATLANTA BRAVES -200 over MIAMI – Ian Anderson has been stellar this year for ATL with a 2.25 ERA and allowing a low .163 batting average. In his 2 starts he has went a combined 12.0 innings with 3 RS and 14 strikeouts. Now facing a MIA team that is striking out a whopping 27% of the time over the last 14 days and rank 21st in runs per game. ATL ranks 5th in our last 10 game power rankings, 2nd in runs per game, 1st in OBP+ISO and they face Jose Urena coming off the IL. They have faced him for 101 team Abs and they are hitting .337 off him with a low 19% strikeout rate. Parlay the ATL moneyline or bet the run line.

SAN DIEGO PADRES -180 – Padres are #1 in our last 10 game power rankings on our MLB Cheatsheets and they get to face Kyle Freeland and the 27th ranked bullpen AND they are at home. Padres at home have a wRC+ that jumps from 107.6 to 138.2 and their OBP+ISO goes from .521 up to .619. Our custom model on our cheatsheet post a total projected for every game and we have this at 5.6 to 4.0 with Padres on top. Parlay the moneyline or hit the run line.

CLEVELAND -210 – Cleveland ranks 2nd in our last 10 game power rankings and facing the Royals who rank 29th. Our model has this game at 4.8 to 3.3. Both pitchers are solid in this matchup with Plesac and Keller but the bullpen is the difference with CLE ranking 3rd on the year and KC rankings 21st. KC is “Ice/Cold” in our team production ranks and Cleveland is “Good”. Not my favorite play straight up because KC is due for a big win but I like it parlayed.

HOUSTON +125 parlayed with OVER 9.0 (pays +330) – Oakland is a -135 favorite tonight with Montas on the mount and the 2nd ranked bullpen. However, Montas has given up 13 ER in his last two starts and Houston is starting to heat up. If Houston can get to Montas and tag him for 4-5 runs I like Houston winning as a dog AND if they win I think there is a strong likelihood this game also goes OVER the total of only 9.0 runs.

MY BETS:

Houston +125 + over 9.0 runs: 1 unit pays +3.30 units

San Diego Padres parlayed Atlanta Braves: 2 units pays +2.60 units

Padres + Braves + Cleveland: 1 units pays 2.5 units.

Mega Parlay Dart (these area always fun):

Padres/Braves/Cleveland/Houston/Houston over 9.0: 1 units pays +14 units.

Thanks for reading,

Haze

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