MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
NEWS & NOTES: Due to some technical difficulty I got a late start today so I am going to focus on the main slate since early slate starts in 2 hours! Man if you followed our sports betting article on the reverse line movements vs. public money they were fire again. STL +140 facing Castillo was the first move with little public money indicating sharp betters were on STL and I was shocked as STL blasted Castillo and was the winning GPP lineup last night. OAK +180 also covered and CHW at +112 covered. The only one that lost was ATL -119. So for last night the reverse line movements against public money were +3.00 units putting it at +4.80 units on the tracker with a 4-1 records. The 4 wins have been dogs and the only loss was a favorite. Interesting!
PITCHERS TO CONSIDER:
JACOB DEGROM (11600) – With the most consistent numbers on the slate he has put up 22, 32, 35 and 32 DK points in his last 4 starts and only allowed 1 ER across those 4 starts. The totals on those are 26.0 innings – 1 ER and 37 strikeouts! Solid! 16.6% swinging strike rate, 2.40 road ERA with an 11.8 K9 ratio and allowing a .232 opponent average. KC only hitting .204 as a team over the last week.
JOSE BERRIOS (9800) – I like him to be lower owned today. He gave up 3 and 9 ER in his last two starts and those were vs. CLE and ATL so decent teams but not HOU/LAD caliper. Those two starts were 11.2 innings – 12 ER and 11 strikeouts. However the start before he put up 40.55 DK points vs. MIA. Berrios is struggling vs. strong teams and crushing weak teams and the matchup tonight is consider a weak ass team so I’m going to roll with him! Berrios has a 3.31 road ERA with a 1.08 whip and allowing a .220 opponent batting average. TEX is sitting at 27th in our L10 game power rankings and scoring only 3.3 runs per game and hitting .230 as a team. Matchup is great!
DINELSON LAMET (9400) – GPP dart today if you think the ownership is going to be high on the other two guys. He has 17, 40 and 11 DK points in his last 3 and put up 17.0 innings with 5 ER (total) and 24 strikeouts. He is risky as 1x value is a possibility but has the potential to get into the 4x range. If he can get past Harper and Muto he should be okay. He has a road ERA of 2.70 with a 13.5 K9 ratio and allowing a low .203 batting average. Philly has been heating up but they are not great as their wRC+ is still only average at 101.4 and 86.1 vs. RHP.
EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ (9000) – Like this price tag here as his last two starts he has been 10,300 and 10,000 so we are getting a discount. He has only put up a combined 10 points across his last two starts @ CLE and vs. KC. We only need around 18 points for 2x value and he has 4x upside if he catches fire. 12.3% swinging strike rate, 3.89 home ERA with a .241 opponent allowed average and the #7 bullpen behind him to secure the win. The thing that jumps out at me here is that BAL is terrible vs. LHP. They have a K rate of 22.2% vs. RHP but vs. LHP is jumps to a huge 28.4% and they are 15-29. wRC+ drops from 98.3 down to 87.5. Baltimore is bad. But they are worse on the road and even worse vs. LHP. E-Rod is cheap with upside today!
JORDAN LYLES (7700) – He is the wild card today. He started off the season on fire going 17 innings with only 1 ER across those 3 starts and 18 strikeouts. Then he was up and down and then into a dark hole where 8 of 9 starts he was below 12 DK points. Now his last 3 starts he has started to show promise again putting up 18, 13 and 27.55 DK points. His price has only gone up 600 bucks. After his 27.55 DK points with 7.0 innings – 1 ER and 9 strikeouts he is with a GPP shot. The more I look at this the less I like him. I’m going to keep the write up here and you can decide. Looking at the cheatsheet WASH has a wRC+ that jumps from 91.8 on the road to 123.7 at home, their OBISO number goes from .479 up to .598 at home and strikeout rate drops down to 18.1% at home. They sit at #2 in our L10 game power rankings and hitting .282 over the last week. Turner is 4 for 7 off him, Adams is 2 for 3, Cabrera is 2 for 4 so in short total BVP is 11 for 21 hitting .524. I might have to X him off now…
ASHER WOJCIECHOWSKI (6300) – He is a good freaking pitching playing on a shit team. He has his last 5 starts of 13, 4, 7, 25 and 38 DK points. He has a high of 7.0 innings iwht 10 Ks vs. a tough BOSTON team and a low of 4.0 innings with 5 ER and 5 Ks vs. NYY. Wide range of outcomes but since his ceiling game was vs. BOS and he is facing them again today he is cheap enough I’ve got him in my player pool! Boston is a tough matchup especially on Boston but they have been hit and miss. The BVP here is great for Wojy as they are only 1 for 25 against him with a 44% strikeout rate. It’s only 25 Abs but those are sick numbers! Boston is great at home with a 30 point higher wRC+ and their OBISO number is 104 points higher at home. Can’t ignore his BVP and price tag!
PUNT: REGGIE MCCLAIN (4000) – We have been on fire with our punt pitchers crushing value. Got another with Montgomery last night! Of the guys below $5k Brault isn’t terrible as the Cubbies struggle on the road but no interest in Suarez, Clarke or Zimmerman. Noesi would of also been one but he is tossing @ COL and that is always a nightmare. Looking at min price McClain for the punt today. He posted a 2.23 ERA in the minors and if we toss out his first 1 inning appearance vs. HOU he has 5.0 innings across 2 appearances with only 2 hits, 0 ER and 3 strikeouts. I mean you only need 8 points here for 2x and it doesn’t kill you.
STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:
LA DODGERS vs. Folty – Folty has an ERA of 6.26 and allowing a .272 opponent batting average. ATL also has the deal last bullpen behind him over the last 5 weeks. Now the Dodgers are scoring 8.7 runs per game over the last week and hitting .307 as a team and rank #1 in our L10 game power rankings. The top 5 hitter stack is 4980 average which is on the high side but if you leave out Belly Bombs at a whopping price tag of 5800 you can get it down into the 4400-4750 range per hitter. LAD 8-2 in L10 games and have a wRC+ of 127.7 on the road and 126.0 vs. RHP.
STL CARDINALS vs. DeSclafani – DeSclafani has solid stats with a 3.70 home ERA and allowing a .251 opponent batting average. His home xFIP indicates it should be closer to 4.17 and his whip is slightly high at 1.30. CIN’s bullpen has slid all the way down to the 27th ranked bullpen over the last 5 weeks after being top 3 most of the first half. STL has a solid BVP of hitting .273 across 150 team Abs. Goldy is 9 for 18, Ozuna is 7 for 20, Carpenter is 12 for 27 the only struggling hitters are DeJong at 2 for 15 and Molina at 4 for 25. Maybe it’s the sharp money that hit STL yesterday stuck in my head but it’s worth a look. Projected at only 4.9 runs they will be lower owned compared to the chalk of Boston & Colorado! You can do a 5 man stack for 4080 – 4600.
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