MLB DFS Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES: (DFS Stacks)
STACKING is a must in DFS. I prefer to stack 4-5 hitters from one team and then 2-3 from another team for a “mini stack”. You can do 4/4 or 5/3, etc. The idea of stacking is when one hitter is on base and the guy behind him hits him in then you get points for the run scored and also the RBI from the other hitter. I base my stacks on cost per player and how chalky it may or may not be. Here is what I’m looking at today.
MLB BREAKDOWN BASED ON TOP VEGAS IMPLIED RUN TOTALS:
YANKEES (5.4 IMPLIED RUNS)
If this stack is going to be chalky then I’m likely off of it until I see something more from this NYY team. They have only scored 2, 3 and 2 runs in their last 3 games and you are still going to pay a premium for the top 4 hitters. Bruce Zimmerman could be that guy that allows them to explode as he is allowing a .284 batting average through 21.2 innings this year and a low 6.2 K9 rate. If you are going to stack NYY them I like building around Odor who is only 3000 on DK and has double digit DK point games in 3 of the last 4. He has a low .159 average this year but a .369 wOBA vs. LHP and projected to hit in the 6 hole. If the average person takes the 1-4 hitters you could go 2-6 and try to grab an edge.
BRAVES (5.0 IMPLIED RUNS)
They are finally showing some signs of life scoring 8 and 5 runs in 2 of their last 4 games. Now those other two they were shutout but come on let’s give them the benefit here! Trevor Williams is allowing a .273 batting average and a 1.50 whip in 19.1 innings this year. He has struggled vs. LHH this year so building around Freddie Freeman is a stack staple at a whopping 5900 on DK. This stack is expensive as Freeman (5900), Ozzie Albies a switch hitter is another staple is (5300) and Ozuna (5300) has great BVP here as he is 7 for 18 (.389) off Williams in his career. So if you are paying up you might as well put in the stud Ronald Acuna (6200) and punt pitching. Williams throws the fastball 61% of the time at an average velocity of only 90.7 mph and ATL ranks 3rd best vs. fastballs but dead last vs his secondary pitch in the slider.
SNEAKY STACKS TO CONSIDER:
MARLINS (3.6 IMPLIED RUNS vs. ADRIAN HOUSER)
This should be low owned with a team implied total of only 3.6 runs. But the stack is cheap and they’ve been putting some runs on the board with 8, 3, 5 and 3 runs their last 4 games. So it’s not amazing but decent. Adrian Houser is far from any “elite” pitcher as he has allowed 5 ER in his last two starts for a total of 9 innings. The bullpen ranks 22nd behind him allowing a 4.56 xFIP and 1.38 whip. Staples in this build are Jazz Chisholm who is hitting .279 this year and has hit double digit DK points in 3 of last 6 games at 4500, Jesus Aguilar who is hitting a solid .292 and has put up 10, 18, 16 and 16 DKP in his last 4 at only 4100 and last but not least Corey Dickerson who is hitting .333 and only 3600 and has 26, 8 and 15 DKPs in his last 3.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX (4.8 IMPLIED RUNS vs. JOSE URENA)
Jose Urena is a good pitcher and in his last two starts he has tossed 7.0 innings in each game and allowed only 2 ER in each of those games so this is not a knock on Urena. The bullpen behind him is ranked DEAD LAST and if they can get the pitch count up on Urena and get him out early this could be a blood bath. White Sox have put up 8, 2, 9 and 8 runs in the last 4 games, perfect for stacking! Tim Anderson (5500) is expensive but the highest custom graded hitter on the team right now. He has a .333 average this year with a .426 wOBA vs. RHP and has put up 11, 3, 10, 14, 25, 20 and 10 DKPs in his recent contests. I would avoid Adam Eaton as he is 1 for 14 vs. Urena, Andrew Vaughn is also ice cold right now but any of the other hitters should be fine to plug in.
SAN DIEGO PADRES (4.9 IMPLIED RUNS vs. MERRILL KELLY)
Fernando Tatis has 5 for 12 off Kelly with 3 HRs so just start there and work around him. Eric Hosmer is hitting .315 this year and 7 for 20 with a HR off Kelly. I would definitely have those two in my lineup! Merrill Kelly has allowed 3 ER, 6 ER and 6 ER in his last 3 starts and the bullpen behind him is ranked 24th. Padres rank 8th vs. his main pitch (fastball) and 5th against his secondary pitch (curve). Let’s blow this open tonight!
ONE OFF HITTERS TO FILL INTO YOUR STACKS:
SHOHEI OHTANI – 4300 – He is on a freaking tear right now with 22, 14, 15, 15, 0, 15 and 18 DKPs over recent games. He should be priced at 6K+ right now.
DYLAN CARLSON – 3400 – Cheap OF that is putting up consistent points.
PITCHERS TO USE:
LUCAS GIOLITO – DET is awful… they have a Vegas implied total of only 3.2 runs and our model has them at 2.7 runs. GIO has a K9 rate north of 12 and facing a team with a 30.3% K rate over the last 14 days. DET ranks 22th, 20th and 21st vs. his top 3 pitches. GIO got rocked last time out against a tough BOS lineup so he will be hungry for a big performance here. DET hitting .205 as a team last 14 days. Easy top pitcher for me today.
CRISTIAN JAVIER – He has put up 30 and 26 DKP in his last two starts going 5.0 in each and NO ER ALLOWED with 16 Ks. CHC have the 5th highest K rate last 14 days.
JOSE QUINTANA (PUNT OPTION) – He is a -145 favorite so Vegas is projecting him for the “W” which is a chunk of points for a low cost pitcher. He is a risk as he put up 21.65 DKP last time out going 5.0 innings with 1 ER and 8Ks. But the prior start he went 1.2 innings and gave up 5 ER. He has 8 walks in last two starts so that is worrisome. TEX ranks 28th in our power rankings and they are 25th vs. the fastball that he throws 54% of the time so worth a dart in a GPP.
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