MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
PITCHERS TO CONSIDER: EARLY SLATE:
Nothing too exciting on the early slate but here is what I am looking at:
ZACH WHEELER (10400) – 4 of 5 starts between 20-23 DK points giving you a solid floor vs. a struggling CHW team. CHW are hitting .225 over the last week. Wheeler has a nice 11.5% swinging strike rate facing a team that is 2-8 in their last 10 games and ranks 30th in our last 10 game power rankings.
MICHAEL PINEDA (9300) – Consistent putting up 21.5, 17, 14, 30 and 28 DK points in his last 5 starts. Standard stats, nothing jumping out from our CheatSheet except he does have a swinging strike rate of 13.5% and MIA is hitting .236 as a team over the last week.
HOME BAILEY (6700) – Boom or bust for GPPs. He has put up 22.2 DK points in his last start, then -16.7 @ HOU (tough game) and then 21.3 DK points. If you can get that 20+ point outing from him that is over 3x and solid value for GPPs.
STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST: EARLY SLATE:
MINNY vs. Moto – Minny is hot right now scoring 6.3 runs per game over the last week and ranking 4th in our L10 game power rankings. Moto has a rough split at home. His overall ERA is a solid 3.64 but at home it is 4.50 with a 5.79 xFIP. That means that his ERA at home is closer to 6 than it is 3 and he has been lucky thus far. Moto has given up 11 ER in his last two starts (6 and 5) lasting only 4.0 innings in both games.
NYM vs. Dylan Cease – Cease continues to throw BP in lives games. He has a 6.86 ERA with a 1.62 whip and allowing a .265 batting average. CHW have the 22nd ranked bullpen when he comes out of the game so nothing scary there. Cease has given up 5, 4 and 4 ER in his last 3 starts which is 16 innings. He is also walking slightly under a batter per inning.
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PITCHERS TO CONSIDER: MAIN SLATE PICKS:
Much more exciting main slate tonight:
GERRIT COLE (11300) – Expensive stud putting up 27-38 DK points in his last 5 starts. I won’t waste time on the expensive guys but Cole has a 17.8% swinging strike rate with a 2.69 xFIP and a whopping 13.3 K9 ratio and allowing a .203 batting average. BVP data is decent as CLE is only hitting .152 off him with 33 team Abs.
CLAYTON KERSHAW (10700) – Another expensive stud putting up 25-32 DK points in his last 4 starts. If you think Cole will be higher owned and want to pivot down to Kershaw I think you are fine to do so. Kershaw at home this year has a 2.30 ERA / .266 wOBA allowed / 9.0 K9 rate / 0.98 whip and allowing a .230 batting average. He is facing a Padres team that is hitting .235 over the last week and only scoring 4.2 runs per game.
JACK FLAHERTY (8600) – I love this range for GPPs of $8.6k and under. Flaherty has put up a solid 25, 18, 26 and 24 DK points in his last 4 starts. He is sitting on a solid 3x value with a little more upside. His last time out he faced HOU (tough team) and went 6.0 innings with 2 ER and 9 strikeouts! BVP is solid with Cubbies hitting only .196 off him through 56 team Abs. Flaherty is also a great split guy and his home/road splits look like this: ERA 5.44 down to 3.20, xFIP also 4.76 down to 3.36, wOBA .348 down to .264 and whip 1.57 down to 0.91, batting average allowed .272 down to .197.
ANTHONY DESCLAFANI (7300) – A little more risk but with upside. He has put up 19, 31, 12, 16 and 28 DK points in his last 5 starts. If you can get close to the 28-30 range that is a 4x return on a cheap pitcher. He should at least get you a 2x floor so I don’t mind him for cash. He is facing an ATL team that is hot right now so hopefully his ownership will be down a little. He has a solid 12.3% swinging strike rate and allowing an opponent .256 average. I would rather go down to Woji as he is my least favorite pitcher on here but if you need another option he would be my pivot.
ASHER WOJCIECHOWSKI (7100) – Baltimore continues to win games and hit HRs while they are out of it, why? Tank and chase the 1st round pick so I can get my under bet on them for the season! Woj has been awesome. His last two starts he has put up 25 and 38 DK points AND it was facing @LAA who is a tough team and BOS who is also a tough team. He went 7.0 innings – 2 ER and 6 Ks vs. LAA and then 7.1 innings – 0 ER and 10 Ks vs. Boston! He could push 5.5x value in GPPs if he had an outing like that Boston game and I think 2-3x is a floor for him. I also like him running to the 7.0 inning mark in games. He has a massive 16.7% swinging strike rate and a home ERA of only 2.03 (however that is only 13.1 innings at home). He is allowing a .183 batting average to opponent hitters.
RECAP OF PITCHING:
Early slate I’m looking at Pineda/Bailey combo depending on stack cost.
Main slate I’m looking at Cole/Woj, Cole/Flah on the cheap stacks and Flah/Woj on the expensive stacks I like. Flah/Woj have the biggest GPP upside, but I like Cole for cash games.
STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST: MAIN SLATE:
BOSTON – Chalking projected at 5.4 runs tonight. They are also expensive coming in at a 5420 per hitter average for the highest 5 man stack and down to 4560 if you leave out the top 3 most expensive hitters. Let’s move on instead of talking about top priced guys.
ST.LOUIS – Cardinals are cold right now hitting only .235 over the last week and scoring 2.8 runs per game but that means they are cheap and great for GPPs. You can stack the 5 more expensive hitters are only an average of 3,880 per hitter. I look for anything under 4300 per hitter and that is just redonkulous (my new word, again!) Lester is good but not amazing. He has a 9.2% swinging strike rate and a 4.81 xFIP on the road with a 1.36 whip. BVP data for STL is solid hitting .289 through 128 team Abs. Cubs also have the 23rd ranked bullpen. Only projected at 4.4 runs they won’t be chalking and will allow you to load up on pitching!
LAD – Anytime I can get a cheap Dodger stack I’m in. Yes they are cold hitting only .203 over the last week but they are still scoring 5.3 runs per game and rank 7th in our L10 game power rankings. You can stack the 5 most expensive hitters for only 4420 average per hitter and if you leave off the most expensive guy (Belly Bombs 5700) you can get them down to 4000 per hitter for a 5 man stack. That is just crazy! They can bust out for 8-10 runs any given night. Facing Lucchesi he is an average pitcher with a 6.48 road ERA and a 1.42 whip and allowing a .290 batting average. LAD has hit .265 off him through 34 Abs. LAD is 40-14 at home.
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