MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
PITCHER BREAKDOWN FOR MAIN SLATE:
STUD: STEPHEN STRAUSBURG (11600) – Most expensive pitcher on the slate today and he has been money in the bank. He is coming off 33 and 30 DK point starts and has a last 5 start ceiling of 45.5 DK points. ARI is hitting .292 off him through 65 team Abs. Straus has a 14.8% swinging strike rate and allows a .216 opponent batting average.
FADE: CHRIS SALE – Quick note: I am not on Sale today at this price tag I think there is just to much risk. NYY just tagged him for 6 ER in 5.1 innings for 9.2 DK points. That would be a crushing blow at 11.3k. Pass.
FADE: TREVOR BAUER – Quick note: Bauer coming off an ass whopping vs. KC giving up 7 ER in 4.1 innings. However prior to that he put up 32, 28, 24 and 31 DK point starts. Tossing his first game for Cincy I’d rather spend up to Straus or go down and save money. I’m off him today. <Note: ATL is only hitting .213 off Bauer in 61 team Abs.>
MONEY SAVER: WALKER BUEHLER (10900) – Still in the semi-nose bleed pricing Buehler is coming off a rough 8.8 DK point start @ WSH giving up 4 ER in 5.1. However he is money at home and his recent home starts look like this: 38.75, 22.4, 53, 27. Big upside and solid floor! Great home splits as we mentioned he has an ERA of 3.94 on the road but a low 2.78 at home, whip goes from 1.22 down to 0.82 and batting average allowed also drops from .249 down to .202 and the #6 bullpen behind him so he should hold the win if they can get the lead.
AARON NOLA (10100) – After a rough start he has 7 of 8 solid starts in a row, he went 31, 34 and 34 points, then 24, 25, rough outing vs. LAD for 8.5 and then followed that up with 23 and 21. He has a solid 2x return and could push 30 today for 3x value. Facing CHW who rank 30th in our L10 game rankings and hitting .212 as a team over the last week and scoring only 2.3 runs per game. Huge -300 favorite for Nola today.
GPP: KYLE GIBSON (8900) – Risk reward play – His last 3 starts were 29, 1 and 24 DK points. He faced KC at home on June 14th and put up a solid 32.8 DK points going 8.0 innings with 0 ER and 6Ks. Gibson is allowing a low .222 batting average at home vs. .283 on the road. His whip also drops from 1.45 down to 1.10.
GPP: JON GRAY (7800) – Another risk reward play – Coming off a solid 28.4 DK point start vs. LAD he went 8.0 with 1 ER and 6Ks. His start before was -2.4 and then 21 DK points. SFG has monster BVP numbers hitting .337 off him through 86 team Abs. Gray does support a decent 3.55 home ERA with a .255 opponent batting average, that’s pretty solid considering his home field.
GPP: MAD BUM (7600) – So the SFG are keeping MadBum and making a run for a wild card spot, okay… MadBum is solid with his last 4 starts 19, 19, 29 and 18 Dk points. He faced COL at home and went 32 DK points in 6.0 innings with 11 Ks. Now he heads to Coors. I think he is priced down too much. COL is hitting .251 off MadBum through a whopping 207 team Abs with a 26% strikeout rate.
GPP: CAL QUANTRILL (6400) – 3 starts in a row with solid returns putting up 18, 28 and 17 DK points. Huge returns on his micro salary! He has only giving up 1 ER in those 3 starts totaling 17.0 innings with 13 Ks. He is facing LAD but they aren’t exactly on fire right now so I think he is worth a look. A nice 12.2% swinging strike rate and only allowing a .211 opponent batting average on the road. LAD are hitting .219 as a team over the last week.
GPP: AARON SANCHEZ (5300) – If he got the “Win” that would be almost 1x his salary, lol! How tossing for the Stros he is coming off 2 solid starts of 21 and 18 DK points. He managed to give up 4 ER in his last start vs. TB but had 10 Ks that saved his DK points. When pitchers go to Houston they become studs, worth a shot here!
MY PLAYER POOL AFTER WRITING THIS: Straus, Buehler, MadBum, Cal Q, Sanchez are where I’m going to start building using those as my core. I’ll sprinkle in some Gibson and Jon Gray too.
STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:
HOUSTON, HOUSTON, HOUSTON – They will be chalking but I’ll mix and match them with everyone! Scoring 6.2 runs per game and hitting .294 as a team over the last week they rank #1 in our L10 power rankings and it’s not even close. They are hitting .400 as a team off Marco G through 60 team Abs. Marco has a solid 3.62 split ERA but his xFIP indicates it should be closer to 5.20. When he comes out they get the 19th ranked bullpen. Sanchez will give up some runs so they will need to score! I can’t believe they are priced as low as they are. Top 5 most expensive hitters are a 4800 average and you can lower that to 4600 or 4380 for a 5 man stack!
MINNY – They are scoring 6.0 runs per game over the last week and rank 6th in our L10 power rankings. They are also on pace to crush the season HR record as a team. Duffy is a decent pitcher but not great and then KC supports the 30th ranked bullpen since July 1st that Minny can tee off on. Will be kind of chalky so won’t waste any more time let’s look less chalk.
OTHER LESS CHALK STACKS FOR GPPS:
CINCY – Cincy only scoring 4.4 runs per game over the last week but that’s over the 4.1 they are projected at today. But they are hitting a nice .272 as a team over the last week. They also have a solid BVP of hitting .360 off Dallas K. Scooter Gennett is 6 for 10 and priced at only 3600 today.
SEATTLE – I really want Houston to win this game but can’t ignore the numbers. Seattle his scoring 5.6 runs per game over the last week while hitting .268 as a team. They rank 16th in our L10 game power rankings. Game total of 10.5 and facing Aaron Sanchez who has put up two solid starts and tossing for a new team he has horrible season long numbers. He has a 6.07 ERA - .357 wOBA – 1.69 whip and allowing a .290 opponent batting average. They are cheap and you can 5 man stack anywhere from 4040 – 4380 per player.
TORONTO – Bundy has great BVP as they are only hitting .208 off him through 48 Abs. However, Bundy does have a 6.16 home ERA and allowing a .299 opponent batting average. After he comes out of the game they get the 27th ranked bullpen. Toronto is surprisingly #2 in our L10 game power rankings and scoring 7.9 runs per game over the last week while hitting .292 as a team. Wow!
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