MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
News & Notes: Today I’m going to cover alot of pitchers and stacks with all the stats that jump out at me. Read through them and pick the ones you like. I’m not recommending you play every single one of these options I’m just trying to condense the amount of time you have to spend researching and digging around. Also working on a lineup building strategy article this weekend for everyone. Also going to work on a Fantasy Football ADP movers article as time permits.
PITCHERS TO CONSIDER:
VERLANDER (12400) – Highest priced pitcher and 4 of last 5 games over 32 DK points. Great BVP as they are only hitting .228 off him through 123 team Abs with a 31% strikeout rate. Verlander has a whopping 17.2% swinging strike rate, 2.76 road ERA and allowing a low .160 average. #2 bullpen behind him. 6 of the 8 hitters for Oakland have <4.5 FPPG over the last week, ice cold! A little worried about the “W” here as there has been a reverse line movement toward Oakland. Houston opened at -200 now down to -180 and that’s only 16% of the public which tells me the sharp pro sports betters are hitting Oakland early.
CHARLIE MORTON (11600) – Solid swinging strike of 14.2% and stellar home stats with an ERA of 2.75 – 0.98 whip and allowing a .204 average. He gets a dream matchup facing a DET team who is 29th in our L10 game power rankings and scoring 3.0 runs per game. DET also has a 25.9% K rate vs. RHP and 24.2% while on the road. Best matchup on the slate if he can deliver! -300 favorite tells me he is very likely for the “W”. He also faced DET on June 5th and went for 32.8 Dk points. He has also put up 24 and 25 in his L2 starts.
LUIS CASTILLO (10800) – Coming off 20, 40 and 28 point starts he gets to face the STL Cardinals at home. He has a stellar home ERA of 2.22 with a 0.92 whip and allowing a low .174 batting average. STL beat up on KC but still only hitting .245 over the last week. Castillo has a solid BVP vs. STL as they are only hitting .227 off him through 97 Abs. Much cheaper than Verlander and 800 less than Morton he gives you a viable top end option tonight!
NOAH SYNDERGAARD (10100) – If you are in a pinch then you can use Syndergaard for a GPP shot. If you have followed me for the last two years then you know I live in KC and these Royals are pesky! They shit the bed vs. horrible pitchers and then they come out and rock Chris Sale, Giolito, etc. They are definitely a boom-or-bust team which is why I’m GPP only here. KC has terrible numbers but they are one team that numbers don’t indicate what they are going to do. They are 22nd in our L10 power rankings, scoring 3.8 runs per game and only hitting .195 as a team over the last week. KC has 5 hitters on the bottom of the lineup that should get dominated by Noah so he could have 30+ point upside. KC plays better at home with a lower K rate so use with caution.
MIKE MINOR (10000) – I didn’t have Minor on here but after his 41 DK point last night for 4k at a 5 figure price he makes the cut. He has good BVP as they are only hitting .146 off him through 41 team ABS. Eddie Rosario is 0 for 11 and Marwin G is 0 for 13 off Minor. This is pretty much a split game per Vegas but don’t feel safe for Minor to get the “W” with TEX ranking 27th in our L10 power rankings and hitting .211 over the last week.
JEFF SAMAR. (8500) – ARI has lost 2 straight, 5-5 in their L10 games and rank 15th in our power rankings. They are only scoring 4.1 runs per game and hitting .252 over the last week. Samardzija isn’t great but a decent mid option with a lot of question marks. He has a 3.55 ERA – 1.11 whip and allowing a .224 average with the 5th ranked bullpen behind him. BVP is decent with ARI hitting .247 through 97 team Abs. Not my favorite but a good mix in option if you can’t get up to the stud range.
KENTA MAEDA (7100) – He is just too cheap for his upside! Coming off a 30 DK point start vs. ARI and only 7.1k? All his stats are garbage, matchup sucks but I just think he would be a good GPP dart tonight. 15.5% swinging strike rate is monsterous! His home ERA is a solid 2.84 but on the road (where he is tonight) is jumps to 5.66 but xFIP indicates it should be closer to the 4.5 range. Allowing a .208 average overall with .176 at home and .243 on the road makes him a good $7.1k pitcher. GPP only.
JOE MUSGROVE (6200) – If you need to save money (and I’m hoping I don’t when I build my lines) look at Joe Musgrove. He has a good BVP history as Cubbies are only hitting .148 off him through 61 team Abs. Cubs also suck on the road. Cubs are 41-19 at home but on the road they are a horrible 23-38. Their wRC+ drops from 127.6 town to 83. The OBISO number we discuss (where .600 is a power house team), the Cubs have a .596 at home but on the road it is only .483. Also the K% jumps from 21.7% at home to 25.2% on the road. Musgrove has a decent 12.4% swinging strike rate, 1.26 whip and allowing a .259 average. He is an average pitcher is a good matchup. Cubs are 21st in our L10 power rankings and hitting only .204 as a team over the last week while scoring 2.8 runs per game.
DAILY PUNT: MIKE MONTGOMERY (5200) – I will likely have a lot of MM tonight mixed with the likes of Verlander, Morton, Castillo, Noah and Minor. $5.2 is dirt cheap and if he can put up 10 points that’s a solid punt to get the stack you want. Let’s start off wit the split, he has been terrible on the road with a 7.16 ERA, .437 wOBA allowed, 1.84 whip and allowing a massive .353 batting average. However, at home he is worth a look with a 2.78 ERA, .300 wOBA allowed, 1.28 whip and .271 allowed batting average. He struggles vs. LHH and right now NYM are only projected to have 2 of them in their lineup (Conforto who is 1 for 4 off him and Panik who is 3 for 10). MM was close to a no hitter last time out before it got broke up and then the pen gave up a 6 ball. He is coming off a nice 41.4 DK point start with solid home stats and we are only looking for 2x which is around 10 points? Yes please! If he put up 15 or 20 that is 3x and 4x value which is what you need for a GPP. Plus he allows you to afford several expensive stacks tonight! Red Flag: He faced NYM on June 21 and only put up 3 DK points. However, I think he is turning a corner and the juice is worth the squeeze!
STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST: Huge slate tonight and I think there are several stacks that require your attention so I’m going to hit on 8-9 with the stats that I’m noticing and you pick your favorite ones!
CHALK: BOSTON vs. Aaron Brooks – Showing signs of line they are back to hitting .314 over the last week and scoring 6.8 runs per game thanks to a recent outburst. They are projected at 6.9 runs and top 5 hitter stack is a whopping 5180 average per hitter. They are expensive, chalky so be careful if you are using them for GPPs. Brooks has a 5.60 road xFIP with a 1.63 whip and allowing a .304 average. Boston does have a OBISO number of .614 at home (teams over .599 usually explode!).
FADE: COLORADO vs. Alcantara – This is going to be monster CHALK projected at 7.3 runs. COL is 28th in our L10 game power rankings and they are expensive with a 5160 average per hitter for top 5. Alcantara is terrible with a 6.37 road xFIP and 1.58 whip. Due to the chalk, recent struggles of COL and prices I’m going to fade them. It may bite me but I’d rather look elsewhere.
HOUSTON vs. Tanner Roark – Like I have always said I will always have some Stros! In only 25 Abs they are hitting .440 off Roark. He also has a 4.20 home ERA with a 1.40 whip and allowing a .262 average. He is a mid-range pitcher but Houston is a power house offense. Coming off 3 losses in a row their top 5 hitters are down to a 4920 average and you can get that down to 4600 with some pivots. They get the #17 bullpen after Roark is out of the game.
NATIONALS vs. Houser – Nat’s jump to 4th in our L10 game power rankings. They are scoring 7.2 a game and hitting .314 over the last week. I love riding hot teams. Projected at only 4.9 they should be lower owned tonight. They have won 4 straight and 7-3 in their L10 games. Notable stats for the stack: Playing at home their OBISO number jumps from .479 to a whopping .604 (that’s NYY level power). wOBA also jumps from .315 to .373 and wRC+ (my favorite catch-all stat) goes from 91.8 on the road to 125.8 on the road. You can stack 5 hitters from as high as 4820 down to around 4000. The 1-43 hitters in Turner, Eaton (on fire right now), Rendon and Soto are almost must haves. Notable stat on the pitcher side is that Houser isn’t terrible. When he is pitching at home (and he is not tonight) he has a 3.00 ERA and allowing a .202 batting average. However, on the road he has a 4.76 ERA and allowing a .307 batting average. Nationals great splits at HOME and Houser rough split pitching on the ROAD. Nationals!
CLEVELAND vs. Tanaka – Projected at only 4.8 they should also be lower owned. NYY are projected at 5.7 so I think more public stackers will go with NYY. CLE is hitting Tanaka at a .321 clip through 81 team Abs. CLE is 3rd in our L10 power ranking and hitting .306 over the last week while scoring 6.6 runs per game. You can stack them cheaply. Now I will warn you that Tanaka has a good home split. He is a 7.51 ERA on the road but at home it is 3.29. He is at home tonight. His xFIP indicates he should be closer to a 3.77. With the pricing of CLE hitters ranging from 4600 on the high end down to 4160 for a solid low end stack and their BVP history they are on the table for me tonight. Carlos Santana is 5 for 15 and Jose Ramirez (who is red hot right now) is 6 for 14 off him. Bonus stat: CLE on the road has an OBISO number that jumps from .515 up to .613. Somehow their strikeout rate also drops from 21.2% down to 17.1% on the road. Look for a tight game that could have a lot of scoring!
MID RANGE STACK: DODGERS vs. Soroka – Soroka has been pretty solid with a 2.32 ERA and allowing a .228 average. However the split jumps out at me for this game. With LAD only projected at 4.8 runs they should be low owned. They are also priced fair with a 4640-4100 average range for a 5 man stack. They are also #1 in our L10 game power ranking with 7.7 runs per game and hitting .267. Soroka is pitching at HOME tonight where his ERA jumps from 1.32 (road) to 4.08, wOBA jumps from .225 to .311, whip from 0.91 to 1.38 and batting average allowed .192 to .286. ATL also has the 30th ranked bullpen since July 1st. Dodgers are going to be a little sneaky tonight!
CHEAP STACKS THAT HAVE VALUE:
CINCY VS. Waino – I love this Cincy team. They are hitting .287 over the last week and scoring 4.9 runs per game. The top 5 man stack for most stud teams like NYY, BOS, HOU is 4900-5200 average per hitter. My mid-range stacks run 4300-4700. You can stack a 5 man CIN stack for only 3920 and even get that down to 3680. There is a lot of risk but if you have two stud pitchers and Cincy goes off that is a GPP winning combo! Waino has a low 8.7% swinging strike rate. His home stats (where he is not pitching tonight) are solid with a 2.19 ERA – 1.23 whip and .238 opponent average. However, on the road they climb up to a 6.96 ERA – 1.62 whip and allowing a .298 batting average.
TAMPA BAY vs. Daniel Norris – I can never get Tampa right so I likely won’t be stacking them but my word they are a -290 favorite projected at 4.9 runs and come in 10th in our L10 game power rankings. You can get a 5 man stack on the high end at only 4100 per hitter and get that down to 3700. DIRT CHEAP! With only 29 Abs vs. Norris they are hitting him at a .414 clip and DET has the 23rd ranked bullpen when he comes out of the game. Tommy Pham, Heredia and Kiermaier are the highest graded hitters. Heredia is 5 for 8 vs. Norris with only 1 K and he is only 3100 on DK. Norris has a 4.76 ERA, 1.43 whip and allowing a .291 average. His stats are pretty much the same for home or road so no split just horrible stats. RED FLAG: Tampa at home is only 31-28 vs. their amazing road record of 40-23. The OBISO number that we discussed earlier is .564 on the road (which is a solid number) but at home it drops to .480 so play with auction.
PHILLY vs. Chris Paddack – Philly has won 3 straight, they play better at home and all their stats jump around 15% at home. Only projected at 4.7 runs makes them very low owned and they come in as 11th in our L10 game power rankings scoring 6.3 runs per game and hitting .275 over the last week. Paddack started off the year red hot, hit a slump went down to AAA and then came back up with hit and miss results. His home stats are amazing with a 2.53 ERA – 0.77 whip – allowing a .168 average. Wow! But he isn’t at home tonight. So how do his road stats look? 3.95 ERA – that is good but his xFIP indicates it should be closer to 5 with a 4.68 xFIP. This is a GPP shot as Paddack could have a good game or he could get in trouble. Harper and Muto are red hot right now.
RECAP: Right now my favorite stacks are Cincy for cheap, Dodgers for mid-range and then CLE / WAS / HOU for the upper tier fading on Boston & Colorado. Those are my early thoughts and always subject to change!
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