MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
PITCHERS TO CONSIDER:
Matt Boyd (10300) – I don’t mind Rich Hill on the top end if you have a little more money to spend by Boyd is likely the highest I’m going to go tonight. He is coming off 23 and 18 point outings and has a string of 23-25 point outings this year. I can’t pay 11,300 for Montas when LAA has the lowest team K% in the entire MLB that takes away all his upside. Boyd has a solid 12.1 K9, 2.73 xFIP and 0.82 whip to LHH and 10.6 K9, 3.66 xFIP and 1.04 whip to RHH. Facing a Baltimore team that is below average.
Max Fried (8100) – Coming off 20, 25 and 17 DK point starts he has found a nice little groove. He has allowing 2, 0 and 3 ER and put up 5, 5, and 7 Ks in those 3. The opponents weren’t that tough facing SF, MIL and ARI so take that with a grain of salt! Now for the good and the bad. The good is that Washington is terrible on the road as their wRC+ is only 59.29 and that ranks 29th out of 30 MLB teams. Their home numbers are a solid 103. They also have a wOBA that is 71 points lower on the road and their OBP+ISO number is 110 points lower. Now for the bad… The Nationals vs. LHP have the 5th lowest K% at 20.5%, best wRC+ of 129.1 and a .295 batting average. Yuck! So I’m banking on the road numbers being terrible and the nice sweet spot pricing of Fried to use him in my GPP lines tonight. But I won’t use him in cash due to Washington’s stats vs. LHP.
Marco Gonazales (6900) – I hate using Marco because I like Texas for the win tonight but I can’t look past the numbers. Marco has faced Texas twice already. On 5/22 he was @ TEX and went 7.0 with only 1 ER and 3 Ks for 14 DK points, I mean that is 2x value on a dirt cheap play so that isn’t terrible. He also faxed TEX at home on 4/25 and put up 34 DK points going 7.0 with 0 ER and 9 Ks and that’s a GPP play! He originally didn’t jump out at me because of some rough starts but looking at them now he was facing @NYY, @BOS and MIN. He still only gave up 2 ER to Boston and 1 to NYY but the low K numbers didn’t allow him many points. TEX vs. LHP has the highest strikeout rate at 30.9% and Marco is back home so hopefully we can shoot for a 3x game tonight for around 20 points and if we get another 34 we can be estatic! GPP play!
STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:
ATLANTA vs. Strausburg – Strausburg has only given up 2, 1 and 2 ER in his last 3 starts, prior to those 3 he gave up 4 and 4 ER. Nationals have the 2nd to last ranked bullpen in the entire MLB with a 5.21 xFIP, 1.71 whip, giving up a .296 batting average and 1.69 HR/9. The key here is getting to Straus early and getting his pitch count up to where he is coming out after 6 innings and we get to feast on that bullpen. Atlanta is hitting .331 vs. Straus through 127 Abs with 7 HRs and 29 RBIs so they might get to him early. Hitters are priced right with all but 1 guy (Freeman 4800) are 4400 and down. Austin Riley is (4000), Ozzie Albies (3800), Acuna (4400), Dansby Swanson (4200), Donaldson (3800), Nick Markakis (3600), McCann (3400). Atlanta also has a wRC+ of 105 at home vs. only 84 on the road. Their wOBA is also 35.6 poitns higher, strikeout rate is 16 points lower and OBP+ISO is 75 points higher.
PHILLIES vs. Wainwright – Phillies hitters in the projected lineup for today are hitting a nice .297 vs. Waino going 38 for 128. Waino has a horrible 5.06 xFIP / 5.9 K9 rate / 1.92 whip and .399 wOBA to LHH – Hello Bryce Harper? Harper is hitting .391 vs. Waino in 22 Abs and priced at a low 4300 on DK. Jean Segura is hitting .455 in 23 Abs are 4700.
ONE OFF HITTERS PRICED RIGHT:
Joey Votto (3400) - .636 average going 7 for 11 with 2 HR vs. Jordan Lyles.
Bryce Harper (4300) - .391 average going 9 for 23 with 2 HR vs. Waino!
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Haze