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MLB Pitching Breakdown & DFS Stacks for Friday 6/11 from CheatSheetPros.com!


MLB Pitchers & DFS Stacks from CheatSheetPros!

QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:

Stack cost we break down by average cost per hitter for 5 hitters in the stack. $5,000 and up average is nose bleed pricing and hard to build a line without extreme value everywhere else. $4,600 - $4,999 is mid-high and gives you some flexibility but still tough. $4,400 - $4,600 is the middle and this should be your target and allows you lots of flexibility when building. $4,000-$4,400 is middle low and these are fun because you can usually fit in great hitters in the holes and solid pitchers. Under $4,000 this is the fun one to build because it usually allows you to fit two $10K pitchers and some other studs in your line and if that stack goes off then you have rock solid pitching options.


STACKS TO CONSIDER:

Each night you have to decide if you are going to “eat the chalk” or “fade the chalk”. Last night I preferred a fade the chalk and had some good stacks that were low owned. Tonight I’m happy eating the chalk.


HOUSTON vs MATT SHOEMAKER

STACK COST: Around $4,600 to $4,860 per hitter

PITCHER PREVIEW: Shoemaker has faced KC in each of his last two starts and has only lasted 4.1 and 0.1 IP giving up 8 and 5 ERs. So, we could say in his last 4.2 IP he has allowed 13 ERs. In 50.2 IP this year he has an ERA of 7.28 but his xFIP is slightly lower at 5.23 and he is allowing a 1.58 whip and .286 batting average. When facing LHH he is allowing a whip of 2.04 and batting average of .317.


BULLPEN PREVIEW: Bullpen ranks 20th so it is in the lower half of bullpens this season.


TEAM PREVIEW: HOU is 7-3 L10 games and rank #1 in our L10 game power ranking putting up 5.4 runs per game over the last 14 days and they are #1 in wRC+ and have the lowest K% in the MLB. Last night I wrote in the article that Yuli Gurriel was my favorite DK hitter at only 4000 and should be used as a one off if not stacking HOU and he hit a HR in his first AB so that was a nice plus to kick off the night. Since this stack is chalky I like sliding down in the 3-7 range with the lead off hitter. Jose Altuve, skip of Michael Brantly projected to bat 2nd, then go with Correa and pick 3 between Bregman, Alvarez, Gurriel, Straw and Tucker. (My pick would be Yuli who has a low 11% K rate vs. RHP, Alvarez and then Tucker since he is only 3700 and has a top 3 wOBA and ISO vs. RHP in the lineup.



CINCY vs. KYLE FREELAND

STACK COST: Around $4,500 per hitter

PITCHER PREVIEW: Kyle Freeland only has 3 starts this year lasting 4, 4 and 5 innings and allowing 5, 3 and 1 ERs. He is coming off a start vs. OAK where he allowed 10 hits in 5 IP and 5 ER with only 1 strikeout. In 13 IP this year he is allowing a .380 batting average and whip over 2.00.


BULLPEN PREVIEW: Bullpen ranks dead last on the season with an xFIP of 4.61 and allowing a .270 average.


TEAM PREVIEW: CIN is scoring 5.72 runs per game @ Home and 3 hitters grade out above 90. Jesse Winker is a on tear right now averaging 13.4 DKP/G over the last two weeks and hitting .346 off LHP this year. Nick Castellanos is hitting .357 off LHP and putting up 8 DKP/G over the last two weeks. To be a little different since this is chalky I’d slide down and include Jonathan India who is projected to his 7th. Most average DFS’ers will take the 1-5 stack. India has he lowest K% vs. LHP at 16% and putting up 10.8 DKP/G over the last two weeks and has a decent two week ceiling at 25 DKPs priced at a low 4200 on DK.

LAA vs. MERRILL KELLY

STACK COST: Around $3,500 per hitter

PITCHER PREVIEW: Looking for a cheap stack to give you since we are eating some chalk with the top two stacks. Kelly is a decent pitcher, his ERA is over 5 but his xFIP is only 3.95 so that is better but not great. His last two starts he has allowed 4 and 5 ERs vs. middle of the rock teams in MIL and NYM. Those two combined for 12.2 IP, 15 hits and 9 ERs. Kelly throws a 91.5 mph fastball 54% of the time and LAA is 8th best vs. the heater.


BULLPEN PREVIEW: Bullpen ranks 26th so they are a bottom 5 pen right now allowing a .269 average.


TEAM PREVIEW: Using the quick stacks tab you can see that 5 hitters from the LAA team are around the 3rd cheapest stack on the slate coming in between 3160 and 3540 per hitter which is DIRT CHEAP! They have put up 5.1 runs per game L14 days and 7.3 the last 3 games. LAA ranks 6th in our L10 game power ranking and while they are much better at home I’m hoping to ride some of their recent success on the road tonight. Justin Uptop has been on fire and grades out over 100 on our MLB Cheatsheet and priced at a low 4000. Shohei Ohtani is also fire, back them up with Rendon and Jared Walsh. The best part about this stack is you can work it two have 2 stud pitchers.

PITCHING BREAKDOWN:

HIGH END STUDS:

Several people will be looking at these 3 pitchers and trying to get one in their lineup so I want to discuss them all real quick.


MAX SCHERZER – As we wrote up yesterday before the game was PPD Mad Max has 7 starts in a row with at least 21.8 DKPs giving you a solid 2x floor due to his strikeout upside. He has 9+ strikeouts in his last 3. We need 34.5 DKP for 3x value and he is coming off 33 and 28 DKPs so he is in that range. I prefer him more for cash games such as double ups and triple ups rather than GPPs where you need to drop a massive number. He does have a 40.7 and 39 DKP game in his last 7 so he has some upside if you want to go that route.


JACOB DEGROM – Should be the most owned stud pitcher on the slate. In his last 8 starts he has an 58, 43, 41 and 39 DKP game so his ceiling is higher than Scherzer and he is 200 cheaper on DK. His last two starts were 39.3 and 32.3 DKPs giving you a solid 2.5x floor and likely 3x with 4x upside. We even seen him hit 5x with that 58 DKP game against WASH where he went 9.0 IP, only 2 hitters and 15 strikeouts not allowing an ER. He throws a 99 mph heater 63% of the time and the Padres are only used to seeing an average fastball of 93.3.


BRANDON WOODRUFF – You can save almost a grand off the above two guys if you want to go down to Woodruff. He has hit 32+ DKPs in 4 of his last 6 starts giving you a likely outcome of around 3x value. Matchup is good against a PIT team that ranks 22nd in our L10 game power rankings. They are 3-7 in their L10 games so he should be in line for the “W” unless something drastic happens. The projected lineup for PIT has 7-8 guys that grade below 65 on our sheet.


MIDDLE RANGE FILLERS:

SHOEHEI OHTANI – In 42.1 IP this year he is holding down a 2.76 ERA and an xFIP of 3.44 allowing a low .162 batting average. He is always in that 3x-4x range but most can’t see his stats because they always pull his batting numbers. His K9 rate is 12.8 which is “ELITE” and no one in his price range is that high. ARI has L7 straight and 2-8 L10 games so he should be in line for the “W”.


TYLER MAHLE – Typically, not a pitcher that I look at but in my season long MLB league I played him last week. He has 28 and 30 DKPs in his last two starts and priced under 8K so that is pushing 4x value. In those two starts he went 12.0 IP with 2 ER and 16 Ks. Now he gets to face a COL team that has only 5 road wins this year with 24 losses scoring a whopping 2.52 runs per game on the road. They also have a 27.1% strikeout rate on the road (vs. only 20.6% at home)


CHARLIE MORTON – He is 7500 on DK so we NEED at least 15 DKP for 2x value and 3x would be idea so that puts us around 21-23 and 4x would be a dream and that would be pushing 30. He has 18, 16, 34 and 26 in his L4 starts so he is definitely turning this around. In those 4 starts he has 23 IP allowing 6 ERs and 28 strikeouts. Definitely someone to consider if you can’t quite get into the Mahle or Ohtani range but have enough salary left to get above Skubal.


RYAN YARBROUGH – My least favorite of the 3 in this tier but coming off 31.15 DKPs going 9.0 innings vs. NYY allowing 2 ERs and 6 Ks puts him on the radar.


VALUE TIER PITCHERS:

TARIK SKUBAL – Love some Skubal tonight as he is only 6900 on DK and has 4 straight solid outings putting up 31, 30, 21 and 26 DKPs. That is 3x for a floor and pushing 4.5x value which is phenomenal. He did just face this same CHW team and went for 31 DKP going 5.0 IP and 1 ER with 11 Ks. So will they hit him the second time through? He also went 6 shutout innings vs. NYY with 8 Ks. He is cheap enough that I don’t need 31 DKPs again I can get 14 (2x value) and it won’t kill my lineup.


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Thanks for reading & good luck!

Haze