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MLB Pitching Breakdown + Team Stacks for July 29th from CheatSheetPros!


MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!


PITCHERS TO CONSIDER:

Patrick Corbin (10,800) – Coming off a 28 DK point starts vs. COL, His last 6 starts he has a 34, 33, 28, 24 and 22 point outing giving you a good floor. Corbin has been solid at home. His overall ERA is 3.25 but only 1.68 at home while 5.04 on the road. His whip is also 1.47 on the road and only .088 at home and his batting average allowed is also impressive with a .271 on the road and only .187 at home! Corbin @ Home!


Caleb Smith (10,600) – Coming off 33.4 DK points going 7.0 innings with 1 ER and 9 Ks. He also gives you a safe floor with his K upside. Another strong home split. His overall ERA is 3.30 but his home is 2.23 and road is 4.17. He allows a sub .200 batting average vs. RHH, vs. LHH, at home and on the road. Very impressive. Solid 11.0 K9 rate overall and a massive 15.5% swinging strike rate.


Chris Paddack (10,200) – Semi-struggled last time out vs. NYM giving up 3 ER in only 5.0 innings but prior to that start he had 3 nice starts and one of those was @ LAD. He put up 34, 23, 29.7 DK points. Floor is more of a risk but he has the upside for a few hundred less. Does have a positive home split but it’s not huge. His overall ERA is a solid 2.84 and 2.36 at home. His wOBA drops at home from .281 down to .214, K9 jumps from 8.2 to 10.9 and whip is amazing going from an already solid 1.05 down to a microscopic 0.71 and he is allowing a .166 batting average at home through 42 innings! He also allows a sub .206 batting average vs. RHH, vs. LHH at home and on the road. Just solid!


Sonny Gray (9,400) – Love me some Gray he is $1,400 less than Corbin and has put up 21, 24, 27, 43 and 23 DK points in his last 5. He hasn’t given up more than 2 ER in any of those starts and put up a ton of strikeouts 7, 8, 9, 12 and 6. Solid floor for cash and some upside for GPP. No big splits for Gray but just solid numbers. 3.29 ERA with a 3.34 xFIP, 10.5 K9 rate and 1.13 ship and allows a .215 overall batting average. Solid vs. RHH and vs. LHH allowing a .193 and .234 batting average. Facing a struggling PIT team hitting only .241 as a team over the last week and ranks 29th in our L10 game power rankings. Solid play!


Brad Keller (8,400) – Also love Keller today at his inflated price tag. He is coming off 23, 22 and 32 DK point starts. He has only allowed 0, 2 and 1 ER in those and put up 3, 7 and 7 strikeouts. He did face TOR on the road on June 30th and gave up 6 ER in 5.0 innings so buyer beware! Great home splits for Keller (just like Sparkman) as he has a 3.95 overall ERA but 3.29 at home and 4.39 on the road. His K9 is also better at home jumping from a 5.9 to 7.3, whip drops down from a 1.51 to 1.13 and batting average allowed goes from .272 down to .204. TOR has only hit .221 over the last week while scoring 4.2 total runs per game. Last 10 power rankings they are 19th.


OTHER PITCHER QUICK NOTES:

Dallas Keuchel (8,800) – I do not like him at his price tag of almost 9k. He is coming off a 30 DK point start but it was vs. KC who struggles vs. LHP. Prior to that he has 6 starts and 3 of them were under 10 points and then a 13, 21 and 22. Short slate he might be in consideration but I’m looking elsewhere. BVP numbers are strong for the hitting team as they are hitting a massive .396 off Keuchel through 91 team Abs and a low 16% strikeout rate.


Jamie Barria (7,200) – Great matchup today vs. DET and coming off 4 of his last 5 starts with a solid return. He has put up 16, -11, 24, 19 and 18 DK points. Other than the @ SEA match where he gave up 10 ER in 3.2 (I don’t know why he stayed in the game that long…) he has given you a 2.5x floor pushing 3x upside. Solid split at home as he has a 2.04 home ERA with a 9.2 K9 ratio and 0.91 whip while allowing a .219 batting average. This is only through 17.2 innings so it’s a limited look but his road numbers to compare are a 10.6 ERA with a .434 wOBA, 2.11 whip and allowing a .356 batting average. Eeeek! Give him a GPP shot since he is at home today playing a team that ranks 30th in our last 10 game power rankings and hitting .181 as a team over the last 7 days and scoring a poor 1.5 runs per game! B-A-R-R-I-A for the win!


STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:

LAA vs. Zimmerman – As a team they are hitting .319 off him through 72 team Abs. Zimmerman is allowing a .328 batting average to opponent hitters overall and .292 on the road. Chalk stack on a short slate.


LAD in Colorado – LAD is hitting Jon Gray at a .360 clip through a whopping 114 team Abs. Jon Gray has been decent at home but taking the Dodgers to altitude is another story. Game total is 12.5 so I won’t spend a ton of time on it. See sheet for specific hitters and top stack options.


KC @ Home vs. Pannone – KC is 37 points better on their wRC+ at home vs. on the road as we saw last night when they beat Bauer and the red hot Indians. And yes whoever messaged me on reddit about, “Why no Bauer vs. KC?” and then deleted it when he was getting shelled, that is why! LoL. Worth taking a shot here tonight as you can stack 5 Royals for anywhere from a 3,300 average for the lower end up to 4,200 on the higher end. Cheap stack allowing stud pitching.


CIN vs. Lyles – Lyles just gave up 5 ER in 1.2 innings in his last start vs. STL and now he gets to face a CIN team hitting .296 as a team over the last week scoring 5.3 runs per game. CIN also has a solid BVP hitting .349 off him through 63 team Abs. It is worth noting that Lyles has been solid on the road where he is today and worse at home.


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