MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
Good morning everyone! How about that last article with the low cost GPP stacks? We crushed it that night and I went 5x on my money. Tonight I’m flying to Vegas for the WSOP and some relax time but I’ll still be posting sheets and discussing some plays from the hotel room. Since DK is not allowed in the LV I won’t be posting screen shots and will spend more time sports betting and playing poker. So let’s get a good article in today for this big night slate!
PITCHER BREAKDOWN:
I think tonight is the night to pay down on pitching and stack up your hitters. 4 pitchers are over $10K and I’m not impressed with any of them. So let’s take a quick peak at what I’m thinking:
Cole (12,200) – His last 4 starts are 13.9, 35, 8 and 21 DK points. Not what I want to see for a $12k SP! CHW (8.45) and OAK (13.9) aren’t exactly power house teams. Baltimore is terrible but they are 19 points better on the road (wRC+ rating) and they have a few hot hitters. Too expensive for me!
Soroka (11,600) – Seriously? He has only topped 30 DK points one time this year vs. a terrible SF team. His is likely a 20-24 DK point start tonight. Plus Miami is scorching hot right now averaging 7.5 runs per game over the last week. No thanks!
Kershaw (11,200) – Also going to pass here, he should get an easy win but at this price point I want 9-12 strikeout upside and his last few starts he has only put up 6, 5, 8, 5, 4, and 6 strikeouts. Price is too high for me!
Matt Boyd (10,400) – Of all the guys he is the most likely person I’d squeeze in over $10k. He is coming off 20, 29, 23 and 18 DK point starts giving us a good floor and has 9, 8, 7 and 8 strikeouts on those contents. Facing a tough MIN team but through 117 at bats they are only hitting .179 vs. him with 38 strikeouts (32%), that is great!
Jacob DeGrom (9,400) – Pricing is coming down due to recent performances so I don’t mind him facing COL outside of COL. He has 23.4, 6, 24.5 and 0 DK points in his last 4 starts so a bit of a roller coaster. He has a ceiling game of 45 DK points from April 3rd vs. Miami. Colorado hitters have a .222 average vs. DeGrom through 72 Abs with a 28% strikeout rate.
GPP play only but love the price tag!
PITCHERS I LOVE TONIGHT:
Andrew Heaney (9,200) – So if ownership goes to DeGrom I may slide down here to Heaney if he is substantially less owned. He has 2 starts on the year 21.45 and 24.5 DK points and put up 8Ks and 10Ks in those two starts. Actually I’m just now seeing that he just faced SEA on the road and went 6.0 with 3 ER and 10 strikeouts. So he gives us a good floor.
Zach Eflin (8,700) – GPP dart here. He is a little expensive but has a solid ceiling. He has a 39.65 point game on May 11th then he struggled with 11, 9.5 and 6 DK point starts before going on the IL. Now he is returning to face a weak CIN team. CIN is only 1 of 17 vs. Eflin (.059) and they are ice cold and also only scoring 3.4 runs per game over the last week. They have a 15-15 road record and an 84.87 wRC+.
Brandon Woodruff (7,800) – I think Woody is priced low today. He is coming off a horrible start @ PIT putting up -0.80 DK points giving up 6 ER and facing them again so that is a fear for me. Prior to that he put up 39, 23, 24, 31 and 22 DK point starts and only gave up 1, 2, 0, 1 and 1 ERs and even had a game hitting 10 Ks. MIL is a -260 favorite and should get the win while they pound Rookie Davis on the other side so that gives us a god floor. Woodruff struggles vs. LHH and PIT has a ton of them so that might be his downfall but I’m sure he wants some revenge after they tore him up last start! GPP!
Jose Urena (7,500) – Consistency here, 19.9, 21 and 18 DK points in his last 3 starts and those are all slightly under 3x and well over 2x. ATL has lost 2 in a row and 4-6 in their last 10 games.
Tyler Mahle (7,300) – Most consistent floor numbers here. 21, 2.6, 23.3, 18, 25 and 20 DK points and in those contest he faced Nationals, Cubs and Dodgers. He also has the #3 best bullpen behind him. Philly vs. pitcher hand has a 24.1% strikeout rate (7th), wRC+ of 80.1 (7th), batting average of .230 (5th) and wOBA .294 (7th). Decent matchup if he can avoid Harper and Jay Bruce who are red hot LHH right now. Mahle is dominant vs. RHH with a 2.56 xFIP, 11.1 K9, low 1.09 whip and .284 wOBA – those numbers are solid! Now vs. LHH he struggles with a 4.71 xFIP (yuck), 1.48 whip (eeeeek!) and massive .374 wOBA (throw up in my mouth). Philly has Harper and Jay Bruce, if he can get around them and then he should have a good game, if not then he could get rocked!
PUNT Plays: Ivan Nova (5,000) – If you love your hitters and need a punt to give you positive points then Nova is your guy. Coming off 11, 9.6 and 12 DK points he is a good 2x punt option for tonight. He does have a ceiling game of 22 which is good for 4x value so there is a tiny bit of upside. Through 46 Abs KC is only hitting .239 vs. Nova and most of the team is ice cold right now. KC is scoring only 2.2 runs per game over the last 7 days and 4.3 on the year. They have an 8-23 record at home and a wRC+ of 86.13 which ranks 22nd of 30 MLB teams at home. Nova isn’t great but punting he is the best shot!
STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:
LAA vs. Marco Gonzales – Marco has given up 10 ER and 6 ER in this last two starts. Actually those 10 ER was when he just faced this same LAA team on 6/02. Yeah load them up!
LAD vs. Pomeranz – He has given up 8 ER and 5 ER to a terrible Baltimore and Arizona team. LAD will crush him!
Nationals vs. Margevicius – He has given up 4 ER, 6 ER and 5 ER in his last 3 starts. Ummm… Go Nationals! Projected at only 4.5 runs they should be less chalky, they are expensive but should pound Margevicius. No BVP data but 4 guys in the Nationals lineup have a wOBA over .400 vs. pitcher hand. Can’t ignore that and the 5.2 runs per game over the last week. Nats!
Milwaukee vs. Rookie Davis – Who? Who the fuck is Rookie Davis? Well he owns a career 7.96 ERA in 31.2 innings at the major league level. He is coming off a 1.0 inning appearance vs. ATL and gave up 3 ER. Projected at 5.7 runs this will be chalky, MIL is 7 for 11 facing Davis and 0 strikeouts in those 11 Abs.
CHEAP STACKS: Tonight I’m paying down at pitching and paying up for hitters. When we are wanting stud pitchers we will focus more on cheap stacks. So I’m briefly going to hit on a few teams with a projected 1-5 hitters with an average price in the low $4k’s and down to consider.
LAA – Average price of 1-5 projected hitters $4,440 vs. a struggling Marco G!
HOU – Average price of 1-5 projected hitters $4,080 as a -330 favorite.
MIAMI – Average price of 1-5 projected hitters $3,160 and they are scoring 7.5 runs per game over the last week! Prices are dirt cheap still!
BOS – Average of 1-5 only $4,720, that is higher than we normally hit on but on the other side Tampa Bay is $5,060. So I can get Mookie, Benintendi, J.D. Martinez, Devers and Bogaerts at an average around $4.7k? Heck yes!
CLE – Struggling team but even with Lindor priced at a whopping 5,400 you can get the 1-5 hitters at an average of only $3,860 vs. a struggling German.
PHI – If you don’t like Tyler Mahle and are worred about this stats vs. LHH then you can get the Phillies top 5 for only $4,140.
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Haze