MLB Bets from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
I provide the breakdown and you decide if you want to parlay the games, bet them money line, run line, etc. Saturday we hit a nice +600 parlay with Nationals +250 and over 9.5 then followed that up with a 4-0 day. Yesterday, we got the Padres but it was a tight game so not proud of it, Braves blew the leading bringing in a RP with an ERA over 7 and they still had several chance to win and couldn’t get it done. Cleveland easily won as expected. We had Houston moneyline parlayed with over 9 for a +330 parlay but due to the last minute pitching change we got a “no action” in our book and it was refunded. I always look for the solid games to bet and then sprinkle out some 3-5 team parlays to make the night exciting.
GAMES TO CONSIDER BETTING:
CLEVELAND (-210) OVER KC – I like Junis as a pitcher for my hometown Royals and he hasn’t given up more then 2 ER in his last 3 starts but he also hasn’t went more than 4.2 innings. His xFIP is 5.32 and he is allowing a .292 batting average. Now the reason that is key is because his BABIP is .308 so right in line with the league average (per Fangraphs). If his BABIP was .400 I would tell you that he is “unlucky” and regression is coming but allowing a .292 with average BABIP that is the kind of year he is having. Bullpen for KC ranks 22nd and they are allowing a .257 average on it’s own. CLE is 4th in our L10 game power rankings, and scoring around 5.0 runs per game over the last two weeks. McKenzie is holding onto a strong 1.69 ERA through 3 starts and just faced KC in KC and went 6.0 innings, 3 hits, 0 ER and 6 strikeouts. So far this year in those 3 starts he has 16.0 innings, 3 ERs and 19 strikeouts. So after McKenzie tosses his 5-6 innings of work they gave to face the #3 bullpen in the league that is allowing a low .212 batting average, 0.71 HR/9 and 1.07 whip. I also want to add in that CLE has faced Junis as a team for 120 Abs and they are hitting a whopping .375 off him with low 13% strikeout rate. Lindor is 17 for 34 with 4 HRs off Junis. CLE is 14-6 in their last 20 games and KC is 5-15. Indians for the win!
CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-125) over PIT – I can’t figure out why this line so low. Yes, PIT is better at home with a wRC+ jumping from 57.3 on the road to 85.2 but that is still horrible and below the 100 average mark. White Sox have a wRC+ of 113.8 on the road and 107.5 vs. RHP. White Sox also have the better bullpen ranking 6th vs. the 19th of PIT. CHW are scoring 6.0 runs per game vs. 3.8 of PIT over the last 14 days, team batting average .277 vs. 214, wRC+ 118 vs. 69 and their OBP+ISO is 100 points higher. Our model has this game with CHW 5.2 vs. PIT 4.5, Vegas has this projected at CHW 5.0 vs. PIT 4.5 so we have this somewhere around a -150 or -160 line instead of -125. Cease is by far not a favorite pitcher of mine but he has been serviceable with an ERA of 3.29 and allowing a .232 average. I will point out that he walks a shit ton of batters so that can get him in trouble quickly. He has 14 walks in his last 4 starts! His xFIP is 5.85 and BABIP is way under average at .224 meaning he is not a 3.29 ERA pitcher and he is more of a 4-5 ERA pitcher. However, he has a better pen behind him and has been getting it done. Joe Musgrove is in the same boat here where he isn’t a great pitcher but he has been serviceable for the Pirates. His last start after coming off the IL was 3.0 innings, 2 ER and 4 Ks. Prior to going on the IL he went 3.1 innings, 5 ERs, 5 WALKS and 2 Ks. He is rocking a 6.62 ERA this year and allowing a .269 average. I don’t think either pitcher is great and they both have their flaws but the CHW have the better bullpen and much better lineup to provide the run support needed. Our model has CHW 5.2 vs. PIT 3.6.
DETROIT TIGERS (+140) vs. MILW – Vegas has this game projected at 4.6 to 3.9 with MIL winning and our model has DET winning 4.4 to 3.9 so almost flipped. Both teams have decent bull pens ranking 10th (DET) and 4th (MIL). DET is a much better hitting team right now ranking 6th in L10 power rankings and over the last 14 days they are 7th in runs per game, 1st in team batting average, 11th in OBP+ISO and 7th in wRC+. MIL sits at 24th in L10 power rankings and over the last 14 days they are 24th in runs per game, 21st in team batting average, 19th in OBP+ISO and 19th in wRC+. Tigers are the hotter team right now and both teams are 9-11 in their last 20 games. Now we have looked at the teams let’s look at the starting pitchers. Adrian Houser (MIL) is coming off his most recent start vs. this DET team and went 5.0 innings but got shelled for 5 ER on 9 hits and only struckout 2 guys. Housers last 3 starts he has given up 5, 4, and 4 ER and allowing a .299 average on the year. Last year he only allowed a .244 average so while he is working out the rust let’s take advantage of him! DET is rolling out Spencer Turnbull who on paper looks great with a 3.89 ERA and .197 allowed batting average but I just get a bad feeling about him. He was a rock star in the early part of the season and then has recently fell of a cliff that the season stats don’t show. He has walked 16 batters in his last 4 starts and allowed 8 ERs in his last 13 innings across 3 starts. He just faced this MIL team and went 4.1 – 5 ER and 5 walks. I think this is more of a coin flip 50/50 game so I’m going to take the +140 side as that only has to win 35% of the time to be profitable for us.
BALT/NYM OVER 9.0 RUNS – This is baffling to me as the line opened at 10 runs and has moved all the way down to 9 runs already. We have this projected at 11.8 runs with NYM winning 6.4 to 5.4. Both teams hold a wRC+ over 100 for their current home/away and vs. pitcher hand. John Means has an ERA of 8.10 with an xFIP of 6.08 and allowing a .293 batting average facing a red hot Mets team putting up 5.4 runs per game over the last 14 days. Means has also allowed 6 ER in his last 9.1 innings. Wacha has a 7.20 ERA and allowing a horrible 1.75 whip and .322 batting average. He has allowed 16 ERs in his last 12 innings of work. How did the over go down a run? I must be missing something. In the last 3 games BAL has scored 5, 6 and 6 runs and NYM have scored 8, 14 and 5. Over 9??? I’ll toss a couple units on it.
SEA/SFG OVER 9.0 RUNS – I like totals because you don’t have to worry about the juice. Here we have a hot SFG team facing a decent pitcher and then a crappy pitcher facing a weak team, what could go wrong??? SFG rank 3rd in L10 game power rankings and 8th in runs per game over the last 14 days at 5.8 and rank 2nd in team batting average, wRC+ and OBISO. They are facing Ljay Newsome who looks decent on paper with 7.0 innings, 2 ER and 5 Ks with no walks. He has a BABIP of only .200 so he is going to regress and I think SFG can get to him tonight. Then on the other side we have Logan Webb who has given up 9 ER in his last 9.0 innings with 4 walks. He has a 4.71 ERA and allowing a .266 average facing a team that has put up 8, 4, 5 and 6 runs in their last 4 games. Our model has this game projected at 10.2 runs. Total opened at 8.5 and has moved to 9.0 with 92% of the bets.
DODGERS (-250) OVER ARI – I don’t bet games straight up that are over -200 odds so this is a good one you can mix into a parlay. Our model has LAD winning by 2 runs and so does Vegas so we agree! Walker Buehler if you read my DFS write up is a stud with a 3.60 ERA, 0.97 whip and allowing a low .173 batting average to opponent hitters. He has been getting better with his last 2 starts combining for 11.0 innings with 1 ER and 17 strikeouts. Actually, I just noticed his last start was vs. this same ARI team and he went 6.0 innings, 0 ER and 6 strikeouts. LAD has the #1 ranked bullpen behind him. ARI has also faced him for a total of 93 Abs and they are hitting only .215 off him with a 29% strikeout rate. ARI is 25th in our L10 game power rankings and bottom 3 in all of our team stats. LAD is 9th in our power rankings and they are top 10 in 3 of the 4 team stats. LAD faced Luke Waver and the 25th ranked bullpen. The bullpen alone has an xFIP of 4.98 with a 1.57 whip and allowing 1.52 HR/9. Weaver is a solid pitcher who finished last year with a 2.94 ERA and allowed a .227 batting average. This year he has a 7.44 ERA and allowing a .304 average. His BABIP of .374 indicate he has been “unlucky” for the most part on balls in play so that is likely to come down but these Dodgers are just to much!
RECAP & THOUGHTS:
I haven't made my bets for the day but looking at something like a White Sox / Giants over 9 / Dodgers parlay and might add in another one with CLE. My long shot hits are going to be mixing in this DET +140 game and the other over for a larger parlay. I always wait for starting lineups because if you bet the Dodgers at a whopping line and then find out Mookie and Bellinger are sitting you are F'd.
Thanks for reading,
Haze