MLB Sports Betting Picks from CheatSheetPros!
Washington (-150) over MILW: Corbin is a stud at home with an ERA of 1.78 (compared to his 5.13 on the road), his wOBA also drops from .332 down to .222, whip from 1.43 down to .89 and his opponent allowed batting average from .265 down to .189. MIL on the road has struggled as they are a solid 36-26 at home but 27-32 on the road. Their wRC+ also drops from 100 down to 83.6. You want some more? MIL vs. LHP has a wRC+ that drops all the way down to 76.2 (100 is average incase you are new). OBP+ISO is a number we look at referred to as OBISO and it is a quick guage for us. When you hit around .600 you are basically the NYY when they are on fire. .550 is also a good number. MIL has a .522 at home, which is great but on the road it falls down to .487. vs. RHP they are at .532 (which is good) but vs. LHP they fall down to a horrible .443 which might be one of the lowest on the slate. Nationals are on fire and jump to 4th in our L10 game power rankings and hitting .314 as a team over the last week. They get to face Adrian Houser who has an ERA of 4.76 on the road (compared to 3.00 at home) and a much higher 1.49 whip (compared to 1.13 at home) and a HUGE boost to opponent batting average! He is allowing a .307 average on the road vs. only .202 at home. 22nd ranked bullpen will come in after Houser is knocked out of the game. Nationals at home since July 1st have a OBISO of .604 (compared to .479 on the road) and a low 18.2% K rate. Trea Turner, Juan Soto and Eaton are on fire right now hitting 1, 2 and 4. Play the side or run-line if you want less risk!
CINCY vs. Waino: Wainwright has solid home numbers of a 2.19 ERA and allowing a .238 average. However he is on the road tonight where he supports a 6.96 ERA and is giving up a .298 batting average and a 1.62 whip. CINCY has faced him for 125 team Abs and they are hitting him at a .288 clip with a low 17% strikeout rate. CIN is also hitting .287 as a team over the last week. STL struggles on the road as most of these main stats drop about 10-12%. They beat up on KC but KC isn’t a good team so take that with a grain of salt. Luis Castillo is a monster! In 97 Abs vs. STL they are only hitting him at a .227 clip with a 28% strikeout rate. Castillo also has a great split as his ERA on the road to home drops from 3.38 down to 2.22, whip 1.44 down to 0.92 and opponent average from .213 down to .174. Now keep in mind CIN as the 26th rated bullpen behind him so that is scary so you may look at Cincy First 5 Innings -0.5 runs. STL has the #3 bullpen.
MIN (even) over Texas: I’ve went back and forth on this game. TEX has just been brutal! Scoring only 3.6 runs per game over the last week and hitting .211 as a team. They rank only 27th in our L10 game power rankings. They have a whopping 29.0% strikeout rate vs. RHP since July 1st and a 25.8% strikeout rate at home. My word! Odorizzi is decent with a 3.63 road ERA and allowing a .229 batting average with the 9th ranked bullpen behind him. Mike Minor has been a stud with a home ERA of 3.19 and allowing a .241 batting average which is why TEX is a slight favorite tonight. MIN needs to win as they are fighting with CLE for the division. TEX hitters grade out at a 71.88 and MIN hitters grade out as a 91.3. MIN is scoring 5.7 runs per game and hitting .265 as a team over the last week. This isn’t a lock bet but I think the wrong team is favored here.
REVERSE LINE MOVEMENTS AGAINST PUBLIC MONEY: Action Network posted an article about “Sharp Money” and although I don’t agree with how they are writing it I think there is something to monitor. I have updated our MLB CheatSheets with a live vegas odds scoreboard that updates in real time and a few days ago I added a “pop up” if there is a reverse line movement where <35% of the public is on it. Yesterday there were none. The day before Boston popped off at +180 and won the game 5-1. So that intrigued me. I’ll continue to monitor them and if they are running hot I’ll post them an hour before game time.
So far today it is very early so I don’t know if they will stick but these are what popped up on the sheet. Again these are not plays I’m suggestion but I’m just pointing out line jumps against public which are often sharps hitting the line. We are just monitoring to see how they do. Current monitoring record: 1-0 +1.80 units
STL Carindals +140 down to +133 with only 25% of public money.
ATL Braves -109 out to -119 with only 22% of public money.
OAK +180 down to +165 with only 16% of public money.
CHW +112 down to +106 with only 15% of public money.
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Haze