MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
Hope everyone is having a good summer! It seems to fly by and then we are back into the NFL season with NBA right behind it. Exciting time for DFS players! Let's jump in and look at some stacks and pitchers we can use for the slate tonight!
STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:
TEXAS vs. LOPEX – We have to start here and it will be chalky but I got to have a piece of this game. Let’s start with Lopez – he started off on fire and then has turned into a dumpster fire as of late giving up 5, 1, 6, 5 and 8 ER in his last 5 starts. Lopez is giving up a 6.57 xFIP to LHH with a 1.85 whip and Texas is loaded with LHH! Lopez is also slightly worse on the road as his allowed wOBA goes from .362 up to .401. #Rangers!
ATLANTA vs. Straus – Texas is chalk projected at 6.2 runs so let’s look somewhere less chalky. In come the Braves who are only projected at 4.2 runs for the game facing Strausburg and a mid-tier bullpen. People won’t be on ATL just simple because Straus is on the other side. Straus just gave up 6 ER to ARI and 5 ER to CWS. In between those two starts he did have a good outing vs. SD giving up only 1 ER. ATL has solid BVP as they are hitting a whopping .328 with a massive 128 Abs. ATL is also on fire right now scoring 8.3 runs per game over the last week and rank #1 in last 10 game power rankings.
PADRES vs. Musgrove – Musgrove just gave up 6 ER in 4.0 innings vs. ATL and has given up 6, 3, 5, and 6 in his last 4 starts. Padres are only projected at 4.4 runs so this should also be less chalky and can be mixed in with the Texas stack above. SD only has 16 Abs for BVP so that isn’t a enough to know but in those 16 they have 8 hits hitting .500. So why do we like this? Padres are HOT right now scoring 8.7 runs per game over the last week, they also have a wRC+ of 127.25 on the road which is better than their 87.5 number at home. Their hitters are on fire right now with Tatis / Machado and Renfroe smashing (see cheathseet for actual fppg). Musgrove is actually worse at home – his whip jumps from 1.19 to 1.38 and his wOBA allowed jumps from .278 to .360. He also has an xFIP over 4.6 to both RHH and LHH. When Musgrove comes out they get the 27th ranked bullpen over the last 6 week giving up a 5.18 xFIP / 1.58 whip and massive 1.71 HR/9!
ONE-OFF HITTERS THAT ARE CONSISTENT AND HOT RIGHT NOW:
Josh Donaldson (4200) – 18-17-6-26-26-14 points.
Manny Machado (4700) – 10-19-12-33-33 points.
Oscar Mercado (4700) – 7-8-29-14-28-13-10 points.
Ryan McMahon (3800) – 11-19-11-13 points.
Freddie Freeman (4900) – 21-14-14-18 points.
HITTERS PRICED UNDER $4,300 THAT HAVE BEEN HEATING UP:
Jesse Winker, Chris Taylor, Jason Kipnis, Brock Holt, Mike Yastrzemski, Ozzie Albies and Lourdes Gurriel.
PITCHERS TO CONSIDER:
PITCHERS OVER $10,000 ON DRAFTKINGS:
Chris Sale, Trevor Bauer & Walker Buehler – I think they are all in play if you can afford them, they all give you a solid floor and good ceiling but you are paying for this!
Strausburg – See write up on Atlanta above, I won’t own him anywhere due to the risk.
MID-TIER PITCHING:
Mike Leake (8700) – At first look I was like “way to expensive” then looking at his stats I decided to put him in the article. His last 4 starts he has put up 17 to 30 DK points in all of them and only allowed 2, 3, 1 and 2 ERs. You may be reading that thinking that is only so-so but he faced @OAK, @MIN, HOU and LAA. Those are 4 tough ass matchups! Now he faces a BAL team who ranks dead last in their last 10 game power rankings and tossing in a pitchers park.
Griffin Canning (8500) – He has given up 4, 3, 4 and 1 ER in his last 4 but his strikeout upside keeps putting his DK points on the board. He has 7, 7, 5 and 8 Ks in those 4. He is also sitting in that 13-20 point range so not a ton of upside has flashed yet but he does have a 27 DK point game on May 18th. This is a GPP play as he has the tools to put up a massive game. 17% swinging strike rate and add in that STL has a wRC+ of only 69.5 at home since May 1st (ranked 28th), wOBA of only .275 (ranked 28th) and OBP+ISO .419 (also ranked 28th). Half the Cardinals hitters are ice cold right now so he is worth a look!
James Paxton (8100) – What are we going to do with this frickin guy? He was my most drafted SP in Yahoo Pro Leagues this year. Coming off a solid 22.1 DK point start @ CWS going 6.0 / 2 ER with 7 Ks and only 1 BB. His prior starts he gave up 6 ER to NYM in only 2.2 and 3 ER in 4.2 @ TOR. His price is just so low for the caliber of pitcher he can be. NYY should get the “Win” tonight vs. a reeling Astros club so I think he is in play for us. Houston BVP vs. Paxton is only a .209 batting average through 91 Abs, Paxton still has a 15.4% swinging strike rate and has been much better at home. Paxton at home has a lower xFIP of 3.55 compared to 4.15, lower whip that drops from 1.71 down to 0.95 and his wOBA also drops from .381 down to .222. Houston has lost 5 straight and their road wRC+ has fallen down to 93.4.
Aaron Nola (8000) – Another WTF pitcher that has been struggling but the price has come down too far. He was 9700 just 5 starts ago! Now you can get him on the clearance rack at Wal-Mart! Nola has given up 5, 3, 6 ER in his last 3 starts which isn’t great at all. He does have a 29.55 and 34 DK point game in his last 6 starts so he does have upside pushing the 4x range. Nola at home has also been a better pitcher with an 18 point lower whip and 77 point lower allowed wOBA. GPP flier facing a rough Miami team that is only 27-46 on the year! I still prefer Paxton > Nola.
Sandy Alcantara (7400) – Solid floor here on the other side of the mound. Putting up 14-24 DK points in his last 4 starts he is safe and cheap. He even has upside with a 43 DK point game in his last 6 starts! Alcantara has given up 3, 1, 1, and 0 ER in his last 4 starts and put up 6, 6, 5 and 3 Ks. PHI is 2-8 in their last 10 games and lost 4 straight and their runs per game over the last 7 days has dropped down to 3.5 so I think he is worth a look in this spot. I don’t look at much home/road splits until after the all-star break but it is notable that Alcantara on the road has a massive split in the wrong direction so be careful and don’t “lock him in”!
PUNT PITCHING:
Arial Jurado (6500) – Jurado just got rocked by CIN who is on a 5 game win streak giving up 7 ER in only 3.0 innings. Prior to that he gave up 3, 3, 2, 2 and 0 ERs putting up a DK point range from 11.45 to 20.7. CHW are a big home/road split team. Since May 1st their home wRC+ is a solid 100.1 but on the road it drops to 72.8, their wOBA drops from .316 down to .279 and strikeout rate goes from 21.2% up to 28.3% and their OBP+ISO numbers goes from .468 down to .423. So in those stats for all MLB teams on the road they rank 29th, 29th, 30th and 30th. Worth a flier on Jurado!
Eric Lauer (6100) – Let’s throw out his @COL start as that is bad for all pitchers. Prior to that start he has only given up 3, 1, 1, 1, and 1 ERs and put up a DK point range from 13.75 to 28.75. At his price tag 12-18 points is a solid return on a punt and I think they can even win the game tonight and that is huge at his price point.
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