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MLB Sunday Breakdown 7/14 from CheatSheetPros!



MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!

RECAP: Smashed last night with our value pitcher Brad Keller who dropped a 5x value with 30+ DK points! Also had solid stack options with Cincy / Oakland and Houston. Just an FYI our MLB cheatsheet now auto updates the starting lineups each time you open the file! The auto-refresh will help pull all the starts into the stacks tab in real time!


STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:

LAA vs. Kikuchi – LAA has been on fire hitting .350 over their last week of games. They are also 18 for 34 vs. Kikuchi hitting .529 with a super low 3% strikeout rate. Kikuchi has a 4.87 xFIP on the road with a high 1.52 whip and allowing a .294 batting average. LAA also has a low 18.5% strikeout rate vs. LHP.


OAK vs. Lopez – Oakland is 8-2 in their L10 games, won 3 straight and get to face Reynaldo Lopez at home. Lopez has a road ERA of 6.59, allowing a huge .393 wOBA and 1.62 whip and even allowing a .314 batting average. We saw last night the Colorado pitcher was allowing a .300+ average at home and Cincy killed them. CHW also have the 28th ranked bullpen so Oakland will get some runs on the board today. They also have 6 projected hitters in the top tier grade.


PITCHERS TO CONSIDER:

Today is going to be taking a stud pitcher and a value pitcher. I like all of the guys over $10k but Bieber is my favorite of those as I think he has a safe floor and more upside than the other guys.


TOP STUD: Shane Bieber (10,500) – His last two starts were 31.6 and 42.2 DK points and in those two he went a total of 16.0 innings with 19 Ks and only allowed 2 ER total. I like to look back at their last 10 starts to get an idea where their ceiling is and he has a massive 56.25 pointer / 42.2 and 38.25 in his last 10. Huge upside!


OTHER STUDS: I don’t mind DeGrom but in his last 10 he has only broke 30 points 1 time and NYM don’t have much offense from day to day. Zack Greinke is a stud coming off 35 and 28 point outings but he also has only broke 30 DK points once in his last 10 starts. I think he has the best floor for cash but not for GPP. Jose Berrios is under the $10k mark but the next highest pitcher and I’m off him today. He has only put up 3, 15 and 13 DK points in his last 3 and facing a CLE team that is getting hot. His last 3 starts were on the road and he is also on the road today so I’m going to pass on him.


Mid-Range: Anibal Sanchez (8300) – If you don’t want to go all the way down to Bailey at 6.8k then I’m fine with Sanchez in the mid range. He has a 3.56 road ERA with 9.0 K9 ratio and allowing a low .234 average. The red flag is that his xFIP on the road indicates his ERA should be closer to 4.96.


Punt: Homer Bailey (6800) – I don’t think I’ll go lower than Bailey on the main slate today. He has a decent home split with a 4.28 ERA / .313 wOBA allowed / 8.1 K9 ratio and 1.34 whip allowing a .256 average. No bad stats for a starting pitcher in the high $6K range facing a team that is hitting .192 over their last week of games and that have lost 5 straight. DET also has a 25.3% vs. RHP. DET also has a rough BVP hitting only .219 with 64 team Abs and striking out 23% of the time. Not much value on the slate today but I’ll likely pair him with a stud.


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