NBA Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NBA is changing throughout the day so if you are new to NBA DFS then you need to be ready to make pivotal moves 30 minutes prior to lock. Just another reminder if you are new that was post this NBA CheatSheet every Thursday in our “Free” Facebook group for people to try out. (Link is at the bottom of article.) I post it in the morning and then update and post it again 60-90 minutes prior to lock.
It is difficult to project a low priced guy this early in the day. Most of the best value plays pop up inside that last hour prior to lock. I would suggest no matter what tools you are using that when finding a value play look at their FPPM (Fantasy Point Per Minute) production over the season and last 5 games. I see so many “value plays” that are chalky but the guy has a FPPM of 0.65 or 0.72 and they just don’t do anything. I prefer guys with a FPPM over 1.00 but at least over 0.90 at a minimum. Also, a GUARD/CENTER value play usually performs better than a random forward because they are more involved. That’s just my two cents.
KELLY OLYNK – He is priced at a low 4400 on DK and has put up 32, 24 and 33 DKPs over his last 3. He is projected for 27-28 minutes tonight and has been averaging the same over his last 3 so we don’t expect any big changes. One of the biggest worries with “value plays” are guys that are projected to suddenly get more minutes than what they have been averaging. I have found those players to actually only get those minutes about 50% of the time. This game has a Vegas total of 218 with a team total of 111. At 28 minutes with a FPPM of 1.00 that is 28 points and even if he is slightly lower 26.4 points is already 6x value.
DE’ANDRE HUNTER – Over the last 3 games he is averaging 33 minutes per game and tonight projected at 32 so that is good. He is priced at 5400 on DK so for 5x we need 27 points and for 6x we need 32.4 points. So how has he performed over his recent games? He is coming off a 38 DKP game which is around 7x his current salary and prior to that he had 32, 33.5 and 29 points. Solid floor with some upside at a low price. Game also has a 233 total with a team implied total of a whopping 120!
MIDDLE RANGE “CORE PLAYS” TO CONSIDER:
When looking for these “middle range” guys to play or build around I’m using the NBA cheatsheet and sorting it by “Stud Index” and then looking at purple tier priced guys with an “Algo Score” over 80. I am also skipping over anyone if they have no 6x value games in the last 10 days because we want someone with some upside.
RJ BARRETT – Collin Sexton & Devin Booker were ahead of him on the index but the recent form hasn’t been there so I’m sliding down to Barrett for my first guy to discuss. RJ Barrett is someone who takes a ton of shots and has a high usage rate. The problem early in the season was that he was missing the large majority of hit shots. I was watching the games one night and saw a tweet that he had missed 22 straight 3 point attempts, lol. My word! He is starting to get hot as 3 games ago he had a rough 27 DKPs and then his name game got a few more shots to fall and put up 37.3 DKPs. His last time out he put up a whopping 53.3 DKPs. In that game he was 10 for 19 and still only 1 for 5 from 3 point land. He pulled own 11 boards and had 5 assist with 2 steals. Priced at only 7000 on DK he has 50 point upside with a ton of usage. The game is a little rough with a team total of only 103 but they only scored 113 in the last game where he dropped the 53.3 DKPs. As a +7.5 point dog he will need to score to stay in this!
MALCOLM BROGDON – He has been playing a ton of minutes (averaging 41.3 over the last 3 games) and projected for another 37 tonight. Houston is horrible vs. the PG position as they have allowed 72.4 DKPs to the PG and that is 30% of the total points they allow. Brogdon is coming off 57.8 and 54.3 DKP games and sitting at a smooth 8000 on DK so that means both of those games were well over 6x value and pushing 7x plus you add in the prime DVP spot and BOOM value!
FRED VANVLEET – The last time we discussed VanVleet and playing him over Lowry at lower ownership he went out and put up 55.5 DKPs. Now he is priced at 7900 and coming off 55.5 and 50.5 DKP games. Game is a little rough as PHO plays at one of the slowest paces in the league and they have a team implied total of only 108 and 219 for the game. VanVleet is also someone that is “popping” on our NBA cheatsheet in the value index. He is projected across the industry for around 4.4x value. They simply take his average FPPM x PROJ MIN and come up with a number. I prefer another way. I like to average out the FPPM with the last 5 and also look at the min average over the last 3. What that does for me is someone who is “hot” it is going to bump them up a few points and someone “cold” it will pull them down a few points. VanVleet is a 0.97 FPPM player but over the last 5 he is playing at a +31% clip which is 1.28. If you take a simple 1.28 FPPM x 36 projection minutes you get around 46 DKP points pushing 5.8x value. So this index bumps him up on my list.
JERAMI GRANT – Priced at 6900 on DK and projected at 4.5x he should slide under the radar. His projected ownership is sub 5%. We are looking for 35-40 DKPs for that 5x-6x range and he has put up 42.5, 35, 32 and 47 over his last 4. They are a +12 point dog vs. MIL with a team total of only 107 so he will need to ball out to keep them in this. Just like I stated in the player above he is playing at a higher clip as his FPPM is up from 0.91 to 1.08 for a +17% increase. If you add in his average or projected minutes you get something close to 5.7x value. Matchup is one of the toughest on the board but that is what we need to win a GPP is getting a low owned guy that can crush value.
COBY WHITE – Mike Conley was the next man on the list but with two games back to back under 23 DKPs I’m sliding down to Coby White who is playing in a game with a 229.5 total and a team total of 111. Coby is coming off a 42.5 DKP game which is 7x his current 6800 salary. Prior to that he has been up and down with 38, 20, 40 and 33 DKPs. CHI and SAC both have prime DVP spots for the PG position tonight. SAC is allowing 60.9 DKPs and CHI is allowing 61.7 and we have this projected as the fastest paced game on the slate with 107.8 possessions.
STUD TO PAY UP FOR TONIGHT:
PAUL GEORGE – There are several good options for tonight but PG is someone I had a ton of last night before he went to the “Q” status and then eventually “out”. If he goes tonight I’m back on him in what could be a high temp game with Golden State and possibly no Kawhi if he decides to rest. Paul George is coming off two amazing games of 55.8 and 55 DKPs in which Kawhi was in both of those games. Yet he is priced at only 8900 on DK??? Yes there are some studs you can pay up for like Giannis at 10,900 but 65 DKPs is only 5x value. PG only needs 44 to his that same value mark.
Our DVP breakdown will show you the projected pace of the game and we also added an indicator for "pace up" and "pace down" games. You can see total fantasy points allowed, fantasy points allowed to the position, % of total points and then the fantasy points for the players that are playing multiple positions. Not seen in this screen shot we also have the FG% allowed, real life points allowed and rebounds allowed to the position incase you want to be really sneaky.
TIERS CONTEST BREAKDOWN:
For the TIERS contest on DK we have added in ownership % for the players to help you make better decisions. You can also see the DKPs over the last 10 games, usage rates, FPPM comparisons for season over last 5 games, projection minutes and our own GPP algo model to help you pick the best players.
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Thanks for reading & good luck!