NBA Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NBA is changing throughout the day so if you are new to NBA DFS then you need to be ready to make pivotal moves 30 minutes prior to lock. Just another reminder if you are new that was post this NBA CheatSheet every Thursday in our “Free” Facebook group for people to try out. (Link is at the bottom of article.) I post it in the morning and then update and post it again 60-90 minutes prior to lock.
VALUE PLAYS:
It is difficult to project a low priced guy this early in the day. Most of the best value plays pop up inside that last hour prior to lock. I would suggest no matter what tools you are using that when finding a value play look at their FPPM (Fantasy Point Per Minute) production over the season and last 5 games. I see so many “value plays” that are chalky but the guy has a FPPM of 0.65 or 0.72 and they just don’t do anything. I prefer guys with a FPPM over 1.00 but at least over 0.90 at a minimum. Also, a GUARD/CENTER value play usually performs better than a random forward because they are more involved. That’s just my two cents.
NEWS TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE VALUE:
Donovan Mitchell (Q) – Would open up a ton of usage for Jordan Clarkson and Rudy Gobert. When Mitchell was ruled out last game Clarkson played 33 minutes and took 21 FG attempts putting up 44.75 DKP points. Priced at 6400 he has upside with Mitchell OUT. Rudy Gobert is also a smash play without Mitchell. He played 37 minutes last game and took 20 FG attempts and put up 68 DKPs. I’ll discuss Gobert below.
Lonzo Ball (Q) – If he is out tonight this would make Nickeil Alexander-Walker one of the top value plays on the slate priced at only 4200 on DK. He is coming off 30 minutes and put up 27.75 DKPs which is pushing 7x.
OG Anunoby (Q) – He was not able to play last game and we saw Normal Powell continue to smash putting up another 41+ DKP game. His price is up to 6200 tonight on DK but if OG is out then Powell should smash value again. He has 41.25 and 43 DKPs in his last two playing 41 and 40 minutes. On DK I love using him because he is SG/SF eligible and filling that SF spot is tough on most nights.
Joel Embiid (Q) – He is Q and I don’t know if we will go or not. If he does then he is in a smash spot tonight and should have a big game. MIN is allowing the most fantasy points than any other team on the slate and they are allowing 53.7 DKPs to the C position and that is 25% of the total they are allowing. Remember last year when positions are getting over 22%-23% they usually have a good shot at smashing value. He should be a 10k player on DK but priced at 9400 and has put up a 3 game run of 58, 58 and 65 DKPs and we only need around 55 for 6x-ish value. If he is OUT then Dwight Howard and Tony Bradley are in the smash spot and they are cheap! Last time Dwight Howard played 30+ minutes he put up 40 DKPs and he is only 4200 tonight. Tony Bradley in 23 minutes last game put up 25 DKPs and he is only 3600.
PLAYERS THAT WE LIKE ON THE SLATE TONIGHT!
There are several players I like tonight so I’m going to try and condense this to the best 4 players for guards, forwards eligible players and centers. I will put my punt options at the end of the position if there is one that I like this early in the day!
TRAE YOUNG – This is a gross mis-price by DK tonight as he sits at only 9100. We need around 45-46 DKPs to hit 5x value and 54-55 is 6x value. He has put up 56.25, 51.25, 56, 66, 55 and 50.75! His last 6 games he has not been less than 50 DKPs. His price was up to 9600 and is now down to 9100, I’M SHOCKED! He may be locked into my cash lines tonight. WAS is allowing 235.2 total DK points per game which is one of the highest on the slate and ATL has a team total pushing 116 points.
BEN SIMMONS – Everyone will be on Joel Embiid tonight because he is in a smash DVP spot with the amount of points that MIN is giving up to the C position. However, Ben Simmons is also in a SMASH DVP spot and MIN is allowing 60.7 DKPs and 25% to his position. This game has a lower total but the pace is projected to be one of the highest on the slate. In 2 of his last 3 games he has put up 53.75 and 48.75 DKPs and he is severely mis-priced at 7700. I mean someone priced in the upper 7K range that can hit 50 DKPs? Hells YES! OH and he is also PG/SF eligible so you can stick him in that pesky SF spot on DK!
DEJOUNTE MURRAY – Another player here that is mis-priced at 6100 and with Derrick White out of court he is locked into 30+ minutes per game. DEN allows 55.7 DKPs to the PG position putting him in a solid spot. His last two games Dejounte has put up 32.75 and 46.25 DKPs playing 31 and 36 minutes. Using our NBA CheatSheet I can see he is a 1.09 FPPM player and over the last 5 he has jumped his game by +10% at now playing at 1.20 FPPM. That means 30 minutes x 1.20 = 36 DKPs for 6x value!
COLLIN SEXTON – Sexy time is priced up to 6700 on DK but his usage is also way up. His last 5 games played his usage is no less than 28.4 and as high as 43.8 with every game but one over 30. He is also taking 15-20 FG attempts per game and has a great shot at a ton of assist with Drummond and Allen playing down low. 2 of his last 3 games he played 30+ minutes he has hit 44.75 and 41 DKPs so he is solid for tournament action but don’t love for cash games.
EVAN FOURNIER – Evan Fournier jumps off the page to me. He has put up 6.2x, 8.5x, 6.1x, 5.7x and 6.5x over the last 5 games and is just smashing right now! He is only 6400 and playing 30+ minutes and taking around 15 shots per game with 20-25 actual points.
DOMANTAS SABONIS – We just saw this matchup on 1/27 and Sabonis put up 55.75 DKPs and had a triple double playing 37 minutes. He is barely over 9k sitting at 9200 so hard not to like Sabonis is cash or GPP tonight as no much has changed. He has eclipsed 50 DKPs in 4 of his last 7 games.
GORDON HAYWARD – USE WITH CAUTION (GPP ONLY) – Just as above we just saw this matchup and Hayward laid an egg with only 25.25 DKPs playing 40 minutes. He did take 14 FG attempts. Prior to that game he had 43, 57 and 51 DKPs so the upside is there for someone priced at 7000. He was pushing 8K a few games ago so in this tougher matchup you get a 700 discount on him.
PUNT OPTION: DEVIN VASSELL – He fits into the SF spot on DK as he is SG/SF eligible but he is also a boom or bust GPP option. He laid an egg, next game smashed value, laid and egg then smashed value again. He is coming off a dud game of only 15 minutes so hopefully tonight he continues the trend and gets the low 20’s minutes and puts up 20-25 DKPs and priced at only 3500 that is 7x+ value. Worth a dart in GPPs.
RUDY GOBERT – Fucking love this guy right now! He might be my other “cash lock” next to Trae Young! He just played this same team and put up 68 DKPs with 20, count them, 20 REBOUNDS! He was this guy stuck at 5.5x value game after game with no ceiling but consistent for cash. Now he has two smashing games at 54.25 DKPs and then 68 DKPs! So I would expect his price tag to be around 8500ish and when I saw he was only 7500. YES PLEASE! Give me some Goberty!
AL HORFORD – He is finally back! He came back and played 30 solid minutes putting up 49.75 DKPs, ok so let’s round that up and just say 50. So, someone in the mid 7K range that can put up 50 DKPs is someone that we want to target. But his price tag is only 5900! Only 5900! I don’t like the team and the pace but that is cheap for someone coming off a smash game!
CODY ZELLER – Chalky value play for the night so you have to decide if you want to “eat the chalk” or “fade the chalk”. He is projected for 8.0 – 8.5x value on most sites right now. Zeller is projected for 30 minutes and plays a solid 1.13 FPPM putting him in the low 30’s. I would expect a 5500-6K price tag for someone putting up 30-35 DKPs. However, he is priced at a stupid 4000. Coming off his last game he got the start and played 30 minutes and put up 37 DKPs AND it was against this game IND team so I’m “eating the chalk”.
BONUS NOTE: I want to explain a little more. Someone that I would not “eat the chalk” on would be someone with a FPPM under 0.90. If they are over 1.00 in fantasy point per minute scoring then they are almost a safe play and then it just comes down to the minutes they get. Even at 20 minutes at 1.00 that is 20 DKPs and at 4K that is 5x value. However, he is playing at 1.13 and should get 30+ minutes.
PUNT OPTION: AARON BAYNES – C position is HOT tonight so I’ll almost definitely have two of them in my DK lines. If you don’t like my options above then Aron Baynes is a find “punt” options for contrarian builds. He is only 3400 so near min price and has put up 28 and 25.25 DKPs in 2 of his last 3 games. I likely won’t have much after all the studs I like in the C spot but that might be chalky!
DVP BREAKDOWN:
Our DVP breakdown will show you the projected pace of the game and we also added an indicator for "pace up" and "pace down" games. You can see total fantasy points allowed, fantasy points allowed to the position, % of total points and then the fantasy points for the players that are playing multiple positions. Not seen in this screen shot we also have the FG% allowed, real life points allowed and rebounds allowed to the position incase you want to be really sneaky.
TIERS CONTEST BREAKDOWN:
For the TIERS contest on DK we have added in ownership % for the players to help you make better decisions. You can also see the DKPs over the last 10 games, usage rates, FPPM comparisons for season over last 5 games, projection minutes and our own GPP algo model to help you pick the best players. Free Group Link: www.Facebook.com/groups/HazeSheets/
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Thanks for reading & good luck!
Haze