NBA DFS Picks December 17th, 2019 from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
I’m going to hit on some plays for the night that I like and some deep GPP darts. Last night 7 of our top 10 GPP Algo plays went for an average of 8x value, 4 of our top 5 Fire Algo plays went for 6.4x value and 15 of the top 19 projected value players just smashed hitting 5x or higher. Those nights are easy money and don’t require much thought process!
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER:
LEBRON JAMES (10900) – If Anthony Davis is out LeBron James is one of the top pay up for options on the slate. His usage goes from 32.5 up to 39.0 with AD off the floor and his FPPM goes from 1.56 to 1.69. At a price point of 10.9k to get 5x we need 54.5 DKP and to get to 6x we need 65.4 DKP. In his last 5 games he has put up 68, 59, 60, 61 and 54. He is putting that solid 5.5x that you need for cash and giving you a solid floor with a little bit of upside.
SPENCER DINWIDDIE (7500) – Over the last two weeks NOR is giving up 64.2 DKP to the PG position! We typically only see Centers get that many points given up to their position. They have a team implied total of 116.25 which is the 2nd highest on the slate and only a -2 spread meaning this game could be competitive which is even better! So the 64.2 DKP to the PG position is a whopping 26.2% of the total points allowed which is the highest I’ve seen. This calculates out to a +18.6% position advantage for Dinwiddie. So at 7.5k we need 37.5 DKP for 5x. He is coming off 35, 43, 41, 40, 39, 40, 45 and 65.25 DKP in recent contest. His FG attempts over his last 4 are 21, 18, 16 and 17! Easy Cash or GPP play.
JAXSON HAYES (3800) – I was not a fan of Mr. Hayes for a long time but now he is just getting it done and I have to take notice. He has a nice 9x ceiling in his last 10 games and he is on a 6.4x value average over his last 6 games and he is CHEAP! He is coming off 24, 15, 27, 25, 20 and 34 DKP outings and we only need 19 points for 5x value. With the low priced players they can climb an X value really quick. So how does it line up for him tonight? Team total of 114.25, game total of 230.5 and a small Vegas spread. BKN is giving up 58.0 DKP to the C position over the last two weeks and that is 26.6% of the total points they are allowing and breaks out to a +8.1% position advantage. He is a high FPPM (Fantasy point per minute) player so if he can sit in that 25 min range or higher he should smash value. To elaborate more on the FPPM player he is a 0.94 on the season but playing up at 1.00 over the last 4 games for a small % increase. So for 25 minutes I expect 25 points, 30 minutes = 30 points, etc.
GPP ONLY PLAYS – DARTS THAT COULD RETURN MONSTER VALUE:
ALEX LEN (4600) – I’m trying to dig a little deeper here. He is only playing around 20 minutes per game but has 35 point upside in the right spot. He has 22, 36, 28, 21, 33 and 37 DKP in his recent contest. We need 22 DKP for 5x value, 27.5 for 6x value, etc. If you got 30-35 off a 4.6k player that is a monster return. Team implied total of 110, Vegas total of 222 and facing a team that is giving up 50 DKP to his position.
MOHAMED BAMBA (3500) – This is definitely a bottom of the barrel scrape here. Team total of only 100 points, facing a tough UTA team and he can play as low as 12 minutes or as high as 20-23. In his last 6 games he has a low of 7.25 DKP on 12 minutes but has a high of 34.75 DKP playing only 18 minutes. He is someone that is always “low owned” and cheap. He popped out at me when I was looking at the player tracker sheet and noticed he had 6 different 6x+ games in the last handful of days.
RJ BARRETT (4500) – He is projected as a big value play right now with his price tag. I will be underweight on him but I’m still looking at having exposure. He has been shooting horrible going 3 of 12 and then 4 of 14. The game before those two he went 8 for 16 and dropped 44.5 DKPs. He stated the year off hot with 8 straight games of 30+ DKPs and a high of 47.75. His price tag got as high as 6800 on DK and now he is down to 4500. I track a ton of FPPM to determine how productive a player is and on the season RJ is a 1.00 FPPM but over the last handful of games he is down to 0.62 which is around a 37% drop. GPP only for me but he has a massive ceiling if he can get hot!
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Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze