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NBA DFS (Saturday 11/16) Plays & Stats!


NBA Fantasy Plays & Stats (November 16th) from CheatSheetPros!


QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:

Keep in mind NBA is a roller coaster and you have to watch all the starting lineups and last minute news to get that last minute monster value! These are just some players that you should consider and my thoughts for the Saturday slate!


NBA MAIN SLATE PLAYS & STATS:

Brandon Ingram (6900) – After not playing a couple games his price is back down below 7k. He was on fire putting up 6x, 6x and 8x in his last 3 games and those were 42, 42 and 56 DK points. 5x value for 35 points seems like a floor.


Goran Dragic (5700) – He is in a beast spot tonight as the Pels are giving up 58.2 DK points to the PG position over the last two weeks. This is also a top 4 spot for total fantasy points allowed. Goran’s last 3 games he has 31, 38 and 40 DK points.


Luka Doncic (10,300) – When I’m using our “Player Tracker” sheet and looking at the value returned over the last 10 games Luka is the only player over $9,000 in the top 20. Luka has a 65 DK point per game average over his last 7 games and that is good for 6.3x value. In his last 7 game he has put up 75, 56, 59, 73, 44, 74 and 75 points. He is constantly hitting that 7x upside. Of the 4 players that are over $10k Luka is my favorite GPP play. James Harden (12,200) has monster usage and no Westbrook tonight so he should be a clock for 70 points or around 5.5x. However, the odds of him climbing into 7x at $12.2k that is not likely as that would require 86 DK points. Possible but with the ownership I’d rather go down to Luka. Harden great for cash games as he has the safest floor.


TRAE YOUNG (9400) – Another Luka Jr. play that is great for GPPs. He is averaging 52 DK points per game over his last 6 games and that is good for 5.5x his current salary. He has monster upside though putting up 45, 68, 66 and 61 points in his last 4 games. He has a solid floor of 4.5x and then upside of around 7x.


Danuel House (3900), P.J. Tucker (4400), Ben McLemore (3800) – There is going to be so much value on Houston tonight. James Harden is 12,200 and then everyone else that is projected to play is below 4,400. House or Tucker is going to have a big game, do not play these two guys together. They had a run of games where one guy would go for 6x+ and the other would be 4x or below and they just rotated back and forth. If you play 2 lineups then put House in one and Tucker in one. McLemore had a solid night last night putting up 26.25 DK points and still only 3800 and should get plenty of run tonight.


Kristaps Porzingis (7000) – Monster spot here for Porzingy as TOR is allowing 54.8 DK points to his position over the last two weeks and that is #1 for the PF spot. He is a great GPP play because he is boom or bust. His recent games look like 44, 14, 51 and 21 points. So in a value breakdown this is 6x, 2x, 7x and 3x. We want that 6x-7x for GPPs so he has a great ceiling and he is in a good spot. Also I’ve noticed on our “Player Tracker” sheet if Porzingis has a bust game then Maxi Kleber (4000) has a solid game and usually crushes value. Something to consider if doing multiple lineups.

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THE "DVP ZONE" - Here you can see the DVP fantasy points allowed to each position for the team they are facing over the last two weeks. The top of the column is league average for the teams on the slate. Projected Pace is using a RotoGrinders formula to determine upside pace. The N/A is because that game is not on the main slate.


"GAMECAP TAB" - Here you get a full breakdown of each game. You can look at Pace/Possession stats, efficiency numbers for offense and defense, turnovers and rebounds. We also rank the projected pace and give you a projected custom model score. See all the Vegas numbers and the DVP numbers across the top to quickly see how a player is matching up. For each player you can see their projected minutes, last 10 game ceiling, player grade, projection, value, last 2-4-6 game averages, usage and fantasy points per minutes!


TIERS TAB - If you play TIERS or Pick'em on Draftkings we have a tab that breaksdown each tier and all the stats on our sheet so you can evaluate players side by side.

NBA MAIN SHEET - This is the far right side of the sheet and you can see the DVP points to the position and how that compares to league average. You can also see the consistency rating over the last 21 days. I look to see how often they are hitting value (5x on DK) and this is in a percentage. Then I want to see the upside for GPP. The 34, 44, 50 and 55 are great numbers as they are hitting 7x value of their current salary 50% of the time. You can see the underline and that player are ZERO 7x games, not good for GPP! Also when we get deeper into the season you can see Home/Road splits.


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Thank you for reading and good luck!

Haze

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