NBA DFS Picks December 6th, 2019 from CheatSheetPros!
Is the Blake Griffin breakout game coming or will his price keep falling?
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
I’m wrapping up two consecutive weeks of PTO with another article! I posted a video early of the custom projection and player pool tab we are in the process of adding so feel free to check it out in the Facebook group! I’m going to dive right in so we can get started on this solid slate packed with possible values!
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER:
*** VALUE PLAYERS ***
ISH SMITH (3600) – He will be the default chalk play tonight. The DK pricing was already out before IT was ruled out and Ish moved into the starting lineup. Depending on other value that might open up later in the day Ish will be the highest owned player as of right now. He did not disappoint last night putting up 33 DKP in 34 minutes. He will be in almost all my lines as this is good chalk that is hard to avoid.
TYLER HERRO (4100) & KENDRICK NUNN (4800) – Winslow is Q and Dragic is out and most of the touts are putting Herro and Nunn up as other value plays if Winslow is out. Without Dragic or Winslow Herro has a usage that goes from 21.8 to 23.1 and his FPPM goes from 0.81 down to 0.72. Nunn is slightly better as his usage goes from from 24.5 to 26.9 and his FPPM goes from 0.89 to 0.96. However, I think Jimmy Butler (8000) is just the lock & load play if Winslow is out tonight. He is coming off 55.5 and 62.25 DKP over his last two games and if Winslow is out he is running the offense. Butler has 50-55 DKP upside with Winslow off the floor and that is pushing 7x value with a solid floor!
YOGI FERRELL (3600) – With Cory Joseph and Bogo Q we could possibly get Yogi into the starting lineup. He is coming off playing 15 and 20 minutes and putting up 20.75 and 20.25 DKP which are both good for 6x value. Watch the possible lineups release today!
*** GPP SHOTS with UPSIDE ***
PATRICK BEVERLEY (4800) – He is projected at around 30 points and we have him around 35 points giving up an extra “x” value. In a game that has a 232.5 total and a low 3.5 point spread you’d like to have a piece of it. PatBev is projected to play 30 minutes and while 6x is the likely outcome he does have a 50 point game in his last 10 giving you GPP dart capability.
MONTREZL HARRELL (6500) – He is projected at only 4.7x value but our custom model has him at 6.4x value. He is another piece that you can get of the 232.5 and 3.5 game. This game should be a lot of stars with Kawhi, PG and Giannis but we can easily grab some cheaper pieces that should easily hit value with some upside. They are allowing 53 DKP to his position over the last two weeks putting him in a good spot. For 5x value we need 6.5 x 5 = 32.5 DKP. He has put up 41, 48, 23, 41, 24 and 59.5 in his recent contest. So we see a lower floor of around 4x but then also he has flashed 7x+ upside.
JARRETT ALLEN (7200) – He is also in another close projected game with a -2.5 point spread and a team implied total of 110 with a game total of 217.5. They are allowing 54 DKP to the C position over the last two weeks putting him in a smash spot. If he happened to get into foul trouble then DeAndre Jordan will take over and crush value in a spot like this. We need to his 5x value and at his salary that is 7.2 x 5 = 37 DKP. He has 50, 22, 34, 42 and 62 in his last 5 contest. Upside is what I see!
*** GPP DARTS NOT TO BE USED IN CASH ***
MASON PLUMLEE (3800) – He is smashing right now coming off 42 DKP last night. Prior to that he had 17.5, 21, 30 and 27 DK points. Huge return in value. But he is only playing 14-21 minutes per game usually in garbage time.
MONTE MORRIS (3000) – He can play 10-12 minutes all the way up to 25ish. He is coming off 35.75 DKP last night and prior to those he has been a roller coaster putting up 10.5, 2, 23 and 20 DKP. So he can go anywhere from 1x to 7x value.
Both Mason Plumlee and Monte Morris rise and fall at the same time. Mainly playing blowout minutes, garbage time, etc. So my recommendation would be playing them together or avoiding them both depending on how you think the game is going to turn out. Last night they both scored over 11x value, the night prior they were below value anta 4.6 and 3.3x, the prior night they were also both below value, then they were 7.8 and 7.0x value and 7.4 and 6.0x value. Correlated plays can help you narrow your GPP lineups.
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Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze