Below we have our 4 team PARLAY for the night of 2-26-2020 with screen shots from our premium NBA cheatsheet using the Betting Tab! Let's dive in!
Game #1 in our 4 team Parlay!
The PLAY: MIAMI (money line) - I'm playing it a little safe here and taking the ML just in case this game stays close and I'm happy at +380 for the parlay but you can also lay -10 if you want to really crank up the odds.
WHAT I LIKE: First thing that jumps out is the scoring margin on the lower right, MIN is losing by an average of 12.7 points per game over their last 3 and Miami is winning by 2.7. Miami is also winning by 10.9 points per game at home and hold a solid 23-3 home record. The total efficiency number of 0.14 is a solid advantage across the board for Miami and I typically like to see that well over the spread and in this case it is! Add in that Miami also holds a 17.6 to 12.3 edge is the blocks and steals category. Take Miami at home for game #1.
Game #2 in our 4 team Parlay!
The PLAY: HOUSTON (money line) - again I don't like to lay double digit points in any NBA game so taking the safe add to the parlay here.
WHAT I LIKE: Houston is red hot shooting right now with an eFG% of 62% which is +12% better than Memphis. Houston is also raining 3 pointers like crazy shooting 24.3 more per game over their L3 than Memphis and shooting 9% better. 3P shots add up quickly! I don't care about the rebounding dis-advantage when a team is shooting the 3 ball like Houston is. Houston also holds the blocks and steals edge 17.6 to 11.0. Look at the total efficiency different of 0.30. Plus look at the scoring margin over their last 3 games - Memphis losing by 14.3 PPG and Houston winning by 17 PPG. Bank it!
Game #3 in our 4 team Parlay!
The PLAY: Dallas -5 - Going to lay the points here with Dallas on the road.
WHAT I LIKE: Aldridge is out for this game already and Dallas has a +9% eFG% advantage, taking 14.3 more 3P shots per game and grabbing a ton of boards. DAL also has a 0.12 total efficiency advantage and that is more than double the spread so I feel safe here at -5. Spurs are -3.7 points per game on their scoring margin the last 3 and Dallas is +9.3 and even +7 on the road. Dallas at 19-9 on the road covers the -5 tonight for the parlay!
Game #4 in our 4 team Parlay!
The PLAY: BOSTON +4.5, I don't even mind the money line here as there is a bunch of value at "+" money.
WHAT I LIKE: Boston is hitting the 3P shot at a +9% clip which adds up to several points and in our model you can see it is about 13 points. Boston is also grabbing a ton of boards. The efficiency mark of Boston +0.19 is a solid number giving you value in the money line. Boston on offense is 1.13 vs. 1.04 meaning they are scoring 9 more points per 100 possessions than Utah and on defense they also lead 1.06 to 1.16 meaning they are allowing 10 less points per game than Utah per 100 possessions. Scoring margin Boston is winning by 6.7 points per game over their last 3 and Utah is losing by 13. When a team has a solid efficiency number on offense and defense AND they are getting points those are money line plays I like to hit!
RECAP of our 4 team PARLAY:
Miami (money line)
Houston (money line)
Dallas -5
Boston +4.5
Pays around +380
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Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze